“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” The Changing Demographics.

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

The Changing Demographics of Freedom

and Carroll County

Freedom Planning Board Public Meeting

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Board of DirectorsWilliam H. Dunlap, Chair

David Alukonis

Eric Herr

Dianne Mercier

James Putnam

Todd I. Selig

Michael Whitney

Daniel Wolf

Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus

Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur

Stuart V. Smith, Jr.

Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Kimon S. Zachos

Freedom is one of the “older” towns in New Hampshire

• Freedom’s median age is 53.1 years

• Of the 244 towns and cities in NH, Freedom is one of 26 with a median age of greater than 50 years.

• Median age state wide is 37.2 years

Source: 2010 census

Carroll County Population over 65 years old is forecast to increase

from 25% to 35% by 2025

Source: Census and NH OEP forecast

Freedom’s population skews much older than the US and NH

Source: US Census Bureau

Outmigration has contributed to these age group patterns

Net Migration Into and Out of New Hampshire

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Source: US Census Bureau

Future NH Population growth anticipated to be slower

Ten Year Percent Change in New Hampshire Population by Decade End

8.5%

13.8%

21.5%

24.8%

20.5%

11.4%

6.5%

3.3% 3.8%

1.1%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

ActualForecast

Source: Census and NH OEP forecast

Economics

NH Grew Slower than US in last decade

Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University

Carroll County 40 year share of state economic growth is steady at 3%

Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University

The outlook is generally improving, but problems remain

• Business activity: year-over-year increases in New England, but performance varies across sectors.– Manufacturers and tourism: contacts note strong results– Software and IT services firms cite strengthening sales– staffing services respondents indicate activity has picked up

recently, while retail reports are somewhat mixed. • Hiring:

– Some firms note that jobs in selected occupations remain difficult to fill.

– Outlooks remain quite positive, but not sufficiently positive to result in plans for increased hiring.

• Single-family home sales and prices: declined year-over-year in March in four of the six New England states.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, June 4, 2014

Manufacturing, construction and financial activities have not

recovered, government shrinksChange in New Hampshire Jobs

-11,200

-4,900

-7,700

-3,600-1,900

6,600

-900

900

-500

0

5,400

400

5,400

3,000 3,100

-5,000

-14,000-12,000-10,000

-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000

02,0004,0006,0008,000

Dec 07 to Dec10Dec 10 to Dec 13

Source: NH Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau

2011-2012 job growth is dominated by below average wage jobs

Source: NH Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau

1313

Working Age Population Will Decline significantly in Carroll County

Change in Working Age Population (Age 20 to 64)2010 to 2020 2010 to 2030

United States 3.4% 1.0%New Hampshire -1.6% -7.3%

Strafford 0.9% -2.9%Hillsborough 0.0% -5.2%Rockingham 0.5% -5.6%Sullivan -2.2% -5.9%Merrimack -2.7% -8.6%Belknap -3.6% -9.2%Cheshire -4.8% -10.9%Grafton -7.5% -13.7%Carroll -5.3% -14.2%Coos -11.5% -25.6%

Source: NH OEP forecast

1414

Income per Household in Freedom declining

Adjusted Gross Income in zip 03836

$53,992

$46,244$48,413

$46,259

$64,314

$51,554

$60,271

$53,607 $54,542

$44,584

$48,071

$42,121

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: IRS statistics by zip code

1515

Increase in Freedom EITC filingsEarned Income Tax Credit Filings in zip 03836

4239

50

41

5853

60

67 69

10196

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: IRS statistics by zip code

1616

Freedom property tax base is shrinking

Freedom, NH Equalized Value w/o Utilities

$ 0

$ 100,000,000

$ 200,000,000

$ 300,000,000

$ 400,000,000

$ 500,000,000

$ 600,000,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: NH Dept of Revenue Administration

1717

Freedom property tax base recovery lagging NH average

Source: NH Dept of Revenue Administration

Index of Equalized Property Values (2008=100)

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Freedom TownState Average

Housing

19

NH Real Estate Has Finally Hit Bottom

NH Single-Family Residential Home Sales and Price (MLS)Source: NH Association of REALTORS

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

Units sold Median Price

Median Home Price

Number of Units Sold

Decline from the Peak:Sales -40% from 2004Price -25% from 2005

2013 YTD thru December

Carroll County

MLS Residential Property Sales By Year

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

$210,000

$220,000

$230,000

$240,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Med

ian

So

ld P

rice

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Nu

mb

er

So

ld

Median Price Number Sold

Recovery in Carroll County mirrors state real estate recovery

Source: NH Housing Finance analysis

2121

Freedom’s portion of “second homes” has been shrinking, but

still higher than NH/county.Seasonal Homes as a Percent of Area Housing Stock

11.3 10.3 10.4

54.9

42.8 42.2

65.5

54.852.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 2000 2010

NH Carroll County Freedom Town

Source: New Hampshire Census reports

Carroll County Rents Rise and Vacancies Fall

Carroll County

Median Gross Apartment Rent

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

All units 2 BDR

Carroll County

Apartment Vacancy Rates

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

All units 2 BDR

Rents have risen to $1,000 and vacancy has dropped to 5%

Source: NH Housing Finance Residential Surveys

23

Mismatch With the Inventory—Small Households, Large Units—Downsizing to

What?

NH Housing Inventory By Bedroom Count

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000

Bedroom Count in Owner Occupied Units

Average Bedrooms = 2.64 Average HH size = 2.46

Source: Big Homes, Small Households, NH Center on Policy studies

Supply of Housing Stock doesn’t fit Demand

• Baby Boomers want to downsize and live on a single floor to “age in place.”– They need to sell their larger homes to do so.

• Younger households, burdened with student loans and with lower wage jobs, are less able to qualify under tighter bank standards to buy.– They are looking for non-conventional alternatives,

like co-ownership and “doubling up.”• Younger households are not providing the liquidity

for older seller to “move up” or “down size.”Source: Big Houses, Small Households: Perceptions, Preferences and Assessment, NH Center for Policy Studies

24

The Holy Grail: A Small Home

• Both Baby Boomers and young households are looking for a small ranch or cape style house on one level:– But the Baby Boomers may not be able to sell

their larger home to have the cash to buy– Young households may not be able to afford

the purchase price.• In many towns, housing stock of larger homes

and zoning regulations make the cost of housing too high for young people.

25

26

Most Seniors Do Age In Place

Northeast US Annual Mobility by Age, 2012 to 2013

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

.1 to

4 ye

ars

.5 to

9 ye

ars

.10

to 1

4 ye

ars

.15

to 1

7 ye

ars

.18

to 1

9 ye

ars

.20

to 2

4 ye

ars

.25

to 2

9 ye

ars

.30

to 3

4 ye

ars

.35

to 3

9 ye

ars

.40

to 4

4 ye

ars

.45

to 4

9 ye

ars

.50

to 5

4 ye

ars

.55

to 5

9 ye

ars

.60

to 6

1 ye

ars

.62

to 6

4 ye

ars

.65

to 6

9 ye

ars

.70

to 7

4 ye

ars

.75

to 7

9 ye

ars

.80

to 8

4 ye

ars

.85+

year

s

Source: Current Population Survey Mobility Estimates

27

What seniors need to age in place does not match supply

Need to Age in Place:

• Low maintenance, smaller, efficient units

• First floor bedroom and bath• No stairs into unit• Wider entry and bathroom doors• Adapted bathrooms and

kitchens• Higher electrical outlets• Levers, not knobs• Access to public transportation

Supply Available:

28

Too few potential in home care workers available to support aging

in place NH Residents Age 85 and Older per 100 Women Age 25 to 44

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Belknap

Carroll

Cheshire

Coos

Grafton

Hillsborough

Merrimack

Rockingham

Strafford

Sullivan

20102030

Source: Census and NH OEP forecast

2929

NH’s Changing Environment Has Consequences

• New Hampshire’s population growth is slowing down

• Job quality is poor• Elders will be increasingly

larger share of owners and renters

• Young home buyers are challenged

• Recent trend away from ownership and towards rental

• Different problems in different regions

• General public, town officials and business are not aware of issues affecting NH’s housing

• Fewer new households, and fewer families

• Overpayment problems for low income renters

• Elder overpayment, and Elders not aware of options available

• Future home owners not aware of ownership pitfalls and advantages

• Multi-family production shortages

• Geographic diversity more important than urban core.

• Town officials not comfortable changing existing regulations.

Environment Consequences

Source: Big Homes, Small Households, NH Center on Policy studies

New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies

Want to learn more?• Online: nhpolicy.org• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy• Our blog: policyblognh.org• (603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

Board of DirectorsWilliam H. Dunlap, Chair

David Alukonis

Eric Herr

Dianne Mercier

James Putnam

Todd I. Selig

Michael Whitney

Daniel Wolf

Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus

Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur

Stuart V. Smith, Jr.

Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Kimon S. Zachos