To PredictByMichel GodetReflections on theField
andDifferenceshetween Foresightand La Prospectiveor to Buildthe
Future?A pioneer from the French schoolof la prospective discusses
fhedevelopmentof futures-studiesmethodologies and the imperativeof
making methods accessibleto all.46THEFUTURISTMay-June
2012ivvwv.ivfs.org BRIAN HAUCH
/ISTOCKPHOTO"W"prospective,similartom/TT'-'^^conceptof"strate-1jfgicforesight,"isthei
- ^\r%>^ disciplinedevotedtosheddinglight on acfionin the
pres-entbyusingthepowerofpossibleand
desirablefutures.ThefatherofthedisciplineinFrance,industrialistandstatesmanGastonBerger(1896-1960),usedahighlyappropriateimage:
Thefasteryoudrive,thefartheraheadyourheadlightsshouldshine,
haprospec-tive acts like a spotlight designed
nottoforecastthefuturebuttoillumi-nate acfionsto take now, in the
pres-ent. It really focuses on the now
first.Bergersaidthattheattitudeinlaprospective
reliesuponfiveprin-ciples: see wide, see far,see deeply,thinkofthe
humanfactor,andtakerisks. To these principles, let me addmy twist,
three new ambitions:First,"seedifferently,"whichmeans think outside
the box, bewareofclichs, and become aware of col-lecfive
mirages.Second,"seetogether,"whichisimportantnowbecauseinBerger'sdaytheideawastoenlightenthe"prince"ordecisionmaker.
Even
iftherewascollegialityamongintel-lectuals,politicians,andbusiness-menwhooccasionallyexchangedideas,thevisionwasratheraristo-cratic.Futuresexerciseswerenotparficipatorywith
the meaning of in-tegrafingthe actors, or stakeholders.And third,
"have rigor for an
intel-lectualnon-discipline."Therearefiveconditionsforrigor:
pertinence,consistency / coherence,plausibility,importance, and
transparency.Ofcourse, to bea prospectivist(orfuturist), you have
to be a bit cheeky,nonconformist,andmultidisci-plinary,
butyouneedmethods, too,that help reduce the
collecfiveincon-sistencies. These methods have to
bebothrigorousandsimple enough tobe appropriatedthatis, used by
asmany others as possible.Throughoutmycareer, the
easiestthingwastomakecomplicatedmethods,likescenarioprobabiliza-tion,
whereas the hardestthingwasto create simple methods that
every-onecouldunderstand,e.g.,prospec-tive workshops.Methods and
ExperienceForsome,includingBergerhim-self, laprospectivecould
besummedup in an atfitude;forothers, it
abso-lutelyrequiredmethods.Manypeoplerejectmethodsbecausetheydon't
understandthem. Yet it is pos-sible to show them the advantages
ofthe methodsforexample, their usein revealing variables that would
nothave been noticed otherwise.In1972, duringa
nuclearenergystudymandatedbytheFrenchAtomicEnergyCommission,thegroup
took into account 51 variables.The
structuralanalysishighlightedtheimportanceofthevariablesof"sensitivityto
externaleffects"and"siteproblemsforthelocations ofplants."This
raisedthe issueoftheimportanceof social acceptability
indevelopingnuclearenergy.Itshowedtheproblemsthatthe EDF(French
Hydro-electricCorporafion)wouldactually havein trying to setupa
nuclearplantin the municipal-ityof
Plogoff,wherelocalprotests(1978-1981)ledto
theprojectbeingcanceled.Anotherchallenge is to get peopleto think
about the unthinkable. Basi-cally,peopletendnotto
hearwhatdisturbsthem.Inotherwords,everythingthatpleases us is
correctand what bothers us is w^rong.In1990-1991,
afutures-thinkingexercise for the French iron and steelsectorin
2005 yieldedsixpertinentandconsistentscenarios. The use ofthe
Prob-Expert softwarethat we de-velopedshowedthatthesesix sce-narios
coveredonly 40% of thefieldofprobablefuturesandactually
re-vealedthreenew, farmore
probablescenariosthattheexpertshadnotevenidentifiedbecausethosethreew^ent
against conventional thinking.This caseshowstheadvantage
of"probabilisticinteractionmethods,"which take intoaccount the
interac-tionbetweeneventsandverifywhetherthe scenarios
studiedcovera reasonable part of the field of prob-able
futures.EventhoughI introducedmeth-ods into the field of
futuresstudies,
Ithinkthatscenariosareoverdone.Makingscenariosisfine,butsowhat?Onceascenarioisdrafted,whatdowedototakeaction,tomake
whateverwe wantto happenor notto happen?We shouldreallybe turning
them into a project-basedapproach. The tools shouldbe
usedappropriately.Methodsarenecessary,buttoparaphrasethe lateFrench
intellec-tualandsurrealist Andr Breton,
wemustuseallthelevers;inotherwords,rigor,imagination,rationalknowledge,emotionalknowledge,left
and right
brain.Ialsobelievethat,ifmyimpacthasbeenthroughmethods,itisprobablybecausesofewpeoplehave
worked on them. I didn't reallytrytodevelopnewmethods,be-cause the
exisfing toolbox already al-lows me to approach all problems.For
me, the developmentof meth-odsdoesnotmeaninventingnewones,
butrathercreatingnewfron-tierswherethosemethodsmaybedisseminated
and appropriated. Andpeople have appropriatedthis
teach-ingindifferentcountries,addingtheir own culture
eachfime.Withouta lotoffanfare,Iraisedthe fundsto put the
Prob-Expert
pro-spectivesoftwareonlinethroughtheEntrepreneursoftheFutureCircle.
Imanagedtogetallthetoolsup-loadedsopeoplecandownloadthemforfree.Since2003,
thesoft-wareonlinehasbeendownloaded40,000 times.I hope thatmy
legacyto thefieldisthatItrainedpeopleand"in-fected"manywiththe
healthypro-spectivevirus.IhavecopiedthemodeloftheCatholicChurchoftrainingforeignstudentswhobe-came
teachers in their own
countries.Whilethereisgreatmaturityinthefield,laprospectiveis nota
solidfieldin France; every year, newcom-ersarrive whodo not know^
its his-tory.Allprospectivistsorfuturistsshould know a
minimumamount ofthe history, development,andthink-ingof
futuresstudiesforesightorla prospectiveto avoid going back tosquare
one. This way they can avoidsome of the pitfalls.What Is the
Difference betweenForesight and La
Prospective?Onaninternationallevel,lapro-spective is not a stable,
uniformfieldatall. Thesamedisciplinesarenotwww.wfs.orgTHE
FUTURISTMay-June 201247Strategie Foresight and La Prospeetive:
What's theDifferenee?ATTITUDE ANDGOALSCEY SUCCESSFACTOR
FORINNOVATIONFORECASTINGTOOLSPOSITIONING OFSCENARIOSFINAL RESULTAND
ROLE OFTHEFUTURIST/PROSPECTIVISTSTRATEGIC FORESIGHTFocuses more on
pre-activity, prediction, andanticipation.Focuses more on technical
changes.From Technological Forecasting and SocialChange to emphasis
on technology foresight.Great influence of Rand Corporation
inrationality (system analysis, Delphi) and ofHerman Kahn
(scenarios).Central, reduced to a limited numher ofvariables
(Global Business Network).Often thinking out-of-the-box.Also used
for storytelling, consensus, and com-munication.LA
PROSPECTIVEFocuses more on pro-activity and building the
future.Technical change is important but not essential.Client
reports thatedge-based visions.These visions are mainly produced by
the futuristas an expert in thefield.Futuring is used as an
acceptance process.80% of innovation is low-tech (social,
political,management, etc.)The same influences, plus historical and
philosophical in-fluences integrating actors and projects.Central
with unconventional thinking, but withjmore variables,
morerigor.(Over)using morphological analysis.Questionable because
scenario buuding becomesan end in itself.bo many scenarios and not
enough projects.Client reports are less important than the
processinvolving clients as producers.The aim of futuring process
is appropriationby end-users.Prospectivist is a coach who
facilitates the collectiveproduction of knowledge. His or her
expertise is notnecessarily in the field. The prospectivist
providesrigoroustechniques for collective thinking anddecision
making.Tabie
byMichelGodetusedinprospectiveresearchinallcountries.In Great
Britain, polificalscienfistsare the experts. It changes accordingto
country, too. In the United States,pracfifioners have stayed close
to thescience of the futurein the same wayas there is a science of
the past^his-tory.An enormous problem today is
theAnglo-Americandomination in thefield,especiallyinBrussels.
Obvi-ously, we missed the chance to struc-turela
prospectiveonaEuropeanscaleandthusformaEuropeancommunity of la
prospective.Several times I did try, unsuccess-fully,to change
things, but the Euro-pean Commission in Brussels viewsla
prospectivethroughtheprism oftechnologyforesight.Thistype
ofprospective falls into the
technologicalmiragethatIhavelongbeende-nouncing.We have to link
fields, rather like asociologist-demographer, who
takesintoaccountfamilyandsocial fac-tors. We do not want to have
only atechnological viewpoint; instead, weneedto be
multidisciplinary, usingdifferentlevers. This always remindsme
ofthe dreamof the hammer, orthe popularexpressionthatforthehammer
every problem resembles anail. Lifeis notlike that. The
sametooldoes notworkonevery
prob-lem.IntheEnglish-speakingworld,foresight, as it is usually
called, oftenremains based on the Delphi method(consulting experts
in a given
field),basedontechnology,andwiththeambitionofforeseeingthefuture.The
original sin oflaprospectivere-mainsa
temptation:Experts,con-sciouslyorunconsciously, wanttoplay the part
of oracle.Weshouldrememberthatonemeaning of foresight is actually
intu-ifion; i.e., the futureis to be guessed.For us in the field,
the futureis to bebuilt; in otherwords, a
completelydifferentapproach fromguessing
orprophesying.Thebreakbetweenthese approaches is significant,
be-cause the ideaof a futureto be cre-ated puts us inifiaUy in the
situafionof actors.So there is no international acad-emy of la
prospective or futuresstud-48THE FUTURISTMay-June
2012www.wfs.orgTHIERRY BOULLEYAuthorMichel Godet in Paris.ies, and
I doubt there ever will be.But this also means that la
prospec-tiveis no longera
solitarypleasure.That'snew.Anotherpositivestepforwardis how
widespreadthefieldhas become. The newcomerstell
theseniorsthattheirpracticesareout-datedbecausetheythinktheyneednewmethods;inotherwords,the^
ones that they themselves bring.The need for new methods
remainstobeseen.However,thetrendto-wardusingqualitativemeasurestounderstandphenomenais
good. Andusingcreativitysessions is a positivedevelopmentfor
prospectivists/iutar-ists. You have to putcreativity in
theworkshopsandtorememberthatwhat counts is not the final report
butthe process that leads to the report. Adepartmentmanagerata
storecancreate hisfuturejustas muchas anexecutive
can.Anothertrendinla prospectiveisthat the issue of sustainable
develop-menthas
becomedominantamongfuturists.Thedifferencesbetweenthefieldsofsustainabledevelop-mentandfuturesstudieshaveshrunk,
because the goal ofsustain-abledevelopmentistokeepthefutureopen,to
makechoicesin thepresentthat are not to
thedetrimentoffuturegenerations.Inotherwords, thinking about
humankind ina responsible
manner.Laprospectiveandsustainablede-velopmentaresisterconcepts.Maybe
the word prospective will evendisappearfromourvocabulary.
Re-gardless,theideaofresponsibilitywithrespecttothelongtermis
in-cluded in sustainable development.What Legacy Do I
Leave?CanImakeadifference?AndwhatdoIleavebehind?Thesetwokeyquestionsre-flectthetimesandnature
offuturing.Obviouslywe hopefor positive answers.Today,
morethanbefore,Iamfollowingthepoliticalscene. It's normal to be
both afuturistand a "public
intellec-tual,"becausethinkingforoneselfbyoneselfdoesn'tmake much
sense.Like the lookout during
hiswatchonboardtheTitanicuponseeingtheiceberg,myambi-tion is not to
say "We hit an iceberg!"butto warn everyoneso as to
avoidcollision.Goodforecastsarenotthosethatoccur
butthosethatleadtoaction.I feelthatI amaplayer,too. I try to warn
the leaders and citi-zens so that we can avoid problems.A problem
well presentedis alreadypartly solved.I amsoundingthealarmnowonthe
problemsof integrating increas-ingnumbersofimmigrantsandstemming
the demographic
catastro-pheonthehorizonduetoagingpopulationsandrisingdependencyratios
in Etirope. There rarely is con-sensuson the
keyorpriorityques-tions,so
theobjectiveofparticipa-toryfuturesexercises is to
generate,throughdebate,moreconsensualpriority
decisions.Mypersonalgrowth,whichhasbeenalmostaround-tripbacktosquare
one, has meant being less in-terested in the futureand more
inter-estedinthepresent,plusgivingmeaning to
action.Historyconstantlyrewritesitselfaccordingtotheneedsofthepres-ent,so
theambitionof la prospectiveistoilluminatepresentactioninlightof
possiblefutures.Laprospec-tive is focusedon the present,
givingmeaning to action, for action withouta goal has no meaning.I
also realizedalong
thewaythatthegoalisnoteverything.Goingthroughtheprocessalltogetherisimportant.Thegoalisa
pretexttothecollectivejourneythatcreatesties amongparticipants. The
mean-ing of lifecomes throughthose
ties.Wealthisreallyeducated,fulfilledpeopleinasocietythathasconfi-denceplusprojects:Thisphrasesums
up my entire personal and pro-fessional path, a result of the
attitudeoflaprospective.You can see the coming together
ofmythoughtsasa practitioner,citi-zen, man of action,
projectstarteronthe ground in terms of entrepreneur-ship and local
development.Paradoxically,I also
noticedthat,besidesacceleratingchange,inertiaplaysan importantrole.
Thegreat-est changes oftencome
frominertia,afactorthathasbeenunderesti-mated.The worldchanges,
butthe
prob-lemsremain,becausetheyarelinkedtoaninvariable:humanna-ture.Overtime,menretainverysimilardrivesthatleadthemto
be-haveinacomparablemannerincomparablesituations.Inshort,they are
predictable.Asaconsequence,wehavetostudyhumannaturetounderstandphenomena.Forme,laprospectivehasbeenandwillalwaysremain
apassion. I triedto not only do it as
abusiness,unlikesomepractitionerswhomIcriticizefornotcaringenough
to pass on their know-how.The prospectivist,or
futurist,com-mitstoaction,withaproject,adream.Already,thelanguagede-notesasensitiveknowledge:"dreamsfertilizereality."However,rigorandmethodologyarealsoneeded.In
short, both leftandrightbrain must be activated. I payatten-tion to
this intellectual blend. With-outreason, passion is blind;
withoutpassion to fuel a project, reason leadsnowhere.About the
AuthorMichei Godetis an economistand professorat the
ConservatoireNational des Arts etMtiers, where he holds the chair
of Strate-gicForesight.He is the founder and facilita-tor of the
Entrepreneurs of theFuture Cir-cle, a joint program of theNational
CenterforEntrepreneurshipand theFoundationProspectiveet Innovation.
He is co-author,withPhilippeDurance, ofStrategic Fore-sight: For
Corporate and Regional Develop-ment {UNESCO, withEntrepreneurs of
theFuture Circle, 2011). He is also a memberof theFrench Academyof
Technology.E-mail:[email protected] articleis
adapted from an interviewin the French online journalGrand
Lyon,conductedby CdricPolre, available
atwww.millenaire3.com.www.wfs.orgTHE FUTURISTMay-June
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