To Be or Not to Be – The Resumption of Home Ownership Scheme Mr Marco Wu, SBS Vice-Chairman, Hong Kong Housing Society
Jan 16, 2016
To Be or Not to Be – The Resumption of
Home Ownership Scheme
Mr Marco Wu, SBSVice-Chairman, Hong Kong Housing Society
2
Long History of Government Intervention in HK Housing Market
Domestic Rent Control (various years)
Public Rental Housing (PRH) (since 1953)
Home Ownership Scheme (HOS)
(1978 to 2002)
3
Objective of HOS
Enhance Social Stability
Enhance Sense of Belonging
Improve Quality of Living
Enable Asset Formation
4
Target Groups of HOS
To encourage better-off PRH tenants to improve their living conditions and vacate their heavily subsidized rental units for re-allocation
To enable lower-middle income households in private rental housing to own their homes
5
Special Features of HOS
Discounted Sale Price (55% - 70% of FMV)
Small Down-payment (5% - 10%)
Favourable Mortgage Terms
Payment of Premium on Resale in Open
Market
6
Contribution of HOS
350,000 families became Home Owners 200,000 PRH units recovered for re-allocatio
n Surplus from HOS sale used to finance PRH
development Income stream to Housing Authority through r
eceipt of premiums paid by HOS owners on resale
7
Swing of the Pendulum 1997
The Chief Executive announced a 10-year housing plan, aiming(i) to build at least 85,000 housing units a year;(ii) to increase the home-ownership rate to 70% by
2007; and (iii) to reduce the average waiting time for public
rental units to 3 years by 2005 Setting up of the Steering Committee on Land
Supply for Housing chaired by the Financial Secretary to ensure steady and adequate land supply for housing development
8
Swing of the Pendulum 2002
The Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands released a Statement on Housing Policy to stabilize the housing market. 9 measures were introduced, including (i) indefinite suspension of the production and sale of HOS/PSPS flats, and (ii) sale of government land only through the
application list The Steering Committee on Land Supply for Housing
stopped functioning after August 2002 Annual assessment of housing demand and supply
not conducted
9
A Case For the Resumption of HOS
Affordability Gap: Hong Kong’s price-to-income ratio (PIR) is on the top of the world
Growing Disparity between home owners and “not yet” home owners
Supply Gap in land and housing Strong Demand for private housing from
Mainland purchasers
10
Annual Production: Private + Subsidized Sale Housing + Public Rental Housing
Note: Subsidized Housing includes Home Ownership Scheme and Private Sector Participation Scheme units, but excludes Sandwiched Class Housing units
Red bars denote years where total production exceeded 85,000 units
Source: CEIC, BofA Merrill Lynch Equity Research
Annual production : Private housing + Subsidized sale housing + Public rental housing
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,00019
84
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Un
its
11
Private Housing Take-up vs Completions
Note: * government forecasted completions for 2011
Source: HK Government, BofA Merrill Lynch Equity Research
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
198
0198
1198
2198
3198
4198
5198
6198
7198
8198
9199
0199
1199
2199
3199
4199
5199
6199
7199
8199
9200
0200
1200
2200
3200
4200
5200
6200
7200
8200
9201
0201
1
Units
Completion Take-upAv erage Take-up from 1980 Av erage Take-up from 1998
Average historical take-up since 1980 = 22,407 units
Average historical take-up since 1998 = 18,743 units
12
Housing Price Index vs New Completions
Housing Price Index vs New Private Completions
0
50
100
150
200
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Ind
ex
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
un
its
Housing Price Index - LHS New Priv ate Completions (units) - RHS
Source: CEIC, BofA Merrill Lynch Equity Research
13
Annual Production: Private vs Subsidized Sale Housing
Note: Subsidized Housing includes Home Ownership Scheme and Private Sector Participation Scheme units, but excludes Sandwiched Class Housing units
Annual production : Private housing vs Subsidized sale housing
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Uni
ts
Home ow nership + priv ate sector participation schemes Priv ate Housing Total
Source: CEIC, BofA Merrill Lynch Equity Research
14
Average Housing Price vs Median Households Income vs Average Flat Size
Source: CEIC, BofA Merrill Lynch Equity Research
Average housing price (psf) vs median household income (HK$/mth) vs average flat size (sf) - indexed at 100 in 1986
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Av erage Price (HK$psf)Median Household IncomeAv erage flat size
15
A Case Against the Resumption of HOS
HOS would cause the private housing market to collapse
Public resources should not be used to assist people to accumulate wealth/asset
HOS will take up sites earmarked for PRH and private housing
A long lead time (5 to 7 years) is required to plan and build HOS flats
16
Effect of HOS on Private Housing Market – Private Housing Prices
Source: CEIC, BofA Merrill Lynch Research
Note: Subsidized Housing includes Home Ownership Scheme and Private Sector Participation Scheme units, but excludes Sandwich Class Housing units
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Ind
ex (
Mar
198
5=10
0)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
(Un
its)
Class A Price Index (LHS) Annual Subsidized Housing sales (RHS)
17
Effect of HOS on Private Housing Market – Private Housing Rental
Source: CEIC, BofA Merrill Lynch Research
Note: Subsidized Housing includes Home Ownership Scheme and Private Sector Participation Scheme units, but excludes Sandwich Class Housing units
Class A (<40sqm) residential rental vs Subsidized sale housing production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Ind
ex (
1985=
100)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
(Un
its)
Class A Rental Index (LHS) Annual Subsidized Housing sales (RHS)
18
Home Ownership Rate
29%
35%
43%45% 46% 47% 47% 48%
51% 52% 53% 53% 54% 54% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53%
20%24%28%32%36%40%44%48%52%56%
1982
1986
1991
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: HK Government, BofA Merrill Lynch Equity Research
19
My Home Purchase Plan
5,000 flats will be built under the Plan Eligible applicants will be granted a 5-year
tenancy at market rent After 2 years’ occupation, tenants may
purchase the flat they rent, or another flat under the Plan, or a flat in the private market at prevailing market price
The tenants will receive a subsidy equivalent to half of the net rent they have paid as part payment for the flat they purchase
20
Questions from the Public
Is MHPP a better option than HOS?
Should eligible applicants be given a choice between MHPP and HOS?
21
Suggested Way Forward
To resume annual assessment of housing supply and demand
To resume regular review of LTHS To establish a “Land Bank” To resume HOS
Thank You!