June 12, 2012 TMT Predictions. 2012
Jan 17, 2015
June 12, 2012
TMT Predictions. 2012
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
We are “predictions experts”
Not forecasters
Not futurists
1
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 2
“Deloitte predicts that a new
generation of consumer oriented
tablet computers will sell
10-12 million units in 2010.”
Predictions launch
Fairmont Montréal
January 19, 2010
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2011 TMT Predictions. Report Card
January 2012
3 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Smartphones and tablets: More than half of all
computers aren’t computers anymore
Operating system diversity: No standard emerges
on the smartphone or tablet
Tablets in the enterprise: More than just a toy
eGov: From option to obligation
Online regulation ratchets up, but cookies
live on
Squeezing the electrons in: Batteries don’t follow
Moore’s Law
Hydrogen comes out of hiding: The alternative
alternative energy source
2011 Predictions report card Technology
4
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Television’s “super media” status strengthens
DVRs proliferate! The 30 second spot doesn’t die!
Push beats pull in the battle for the television
viewer
Social network advertising: How big can it get?
Games go online and on sale: The audience
grows, but at what price?
Keeping the life in live: A&R diversifies
Pop goes pop-up: Music retail goes seasonal
and temporary
2011 Predictions report card Media
5
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Getting to 4G cheaply: Will many carriers
opt for 3.5G instead?
Wi-Fi complements cellular broadband
for “data on the move”
What is “in store” for Wi-Fi: Online comparison
shopping on aisle 3
Video calling: The base goes mainstream,
but usage remains niche
2011 Predictions report card Telecommunications
6
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 7 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 7
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total Prediction Accuracy
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Mythbusters
8 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 8
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
We are in the post-PC era*
9
1.5B
0.2B
1.4B
200
30
60
Internet device hours/month Internet accessing device units
300B
6B
84B
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The $100 ‘smartphone’ reaches the first half billion
17 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 17
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
The $100 ‘smartphone’ reaches the first half billion
18 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 18
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Hard times for the hard disk: solid state storage surges
19 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 19
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Hard times for the hard disk: solid state storage surges
20 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 20
It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner
21 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 21
It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner
22 22 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner
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It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner
24 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 24
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All aboard for the catch-up commuter thanks to the portable DVR
27 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 27
All aboard for the catch-up commuter thank to the portable DVR
28 28 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
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The schedule dominates, still
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0
20
40
60
80
100
I Love Paying for TV
I Am SeriouslyConsidering Cancelling
I Plan to Cancel
Source: Tremor Video and Magid
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0
20
40
60
80
100
2011 2013
Cord Keepers
Cord Cutters
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0.1
1
10
100
Cord Keepers
Cord Cutters
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592
333
228
145
57
Lightest
Fourth
Middle
Second
Heaviest
Millions of
hours of TV
watched per
day by all
Americans,
grouped by
quintiles
Source: Nielsen
4.2% of all hours
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 45
Consumer tech demand defies the economic head winds
46 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 46
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Consumer tech demand defies the economic head winds
47
Market research is all in your head: fMRI machines and media
48 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 48
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Market research is all in your head: fMRI machines and media
50 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 50
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It’s a “brand” new day for online ads
51
2010 U.S. measured media
spend $149 Billion
2010 U.S. online media spend
$26 Billion
61%
39%
Bra
nd
ing
D
ire
ct
resp
on
se
$91B
$58B
$6B
$20B
Source: Brand.net analysis based on Barclays Capital and DMA
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
It’s a “brand” new day for online ads
52
Source: Zenith Optimedia and Deloitte estimates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
All ads All online Online brand
2012 Ad Spending % Growth
It’s a “brand” new day for online ads
53 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 53
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It’s a “brand” new day for online ads
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
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