Title Slide - up to 2 lines - Home - NOMURA€¦ · · 2011-06-15Sany Heavy Industry ... South Korea China(Domestic) Germany/Switzerland Japan/Germany ... Title Slide - up to 2

Nomura Asia-Pacific Research

June 2011

Please read the important disclosures and

analyst certifications on pages 41–46 ｇｌ.

Katsushi SAITO

Head of Asia-Pacific Industrials Research

Wenjie GE

Yankun HOU

Head of Industrials and Autos Research, Asia ex-Japan

Machinery

Factory Automation in China

NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH

2

Source: Nomura

Value chain: Japanese/European makers competitive in upstream and downstream

Smile curve : Competitiveness of Japanese/Chinese companies

Value chain

SMC (pneumatic machinery)

Fanuc (NC equipment)

THK (linear guides)

Nabtesco (hydraulic equip.)

Siemens (NC equipment)

Haitian International(injection molding machinery)

Shenyang Machine Tool(machine tools)

Komatsu (construction machinery)

Kubota (agricultural machinery)

Daikin Industries (air conditioners)

Kone Elevator (elevators)

Schindler Elevator (elevators)

Profitability

Assembly(midstream)

Services(downstream)

Japanese/ European strong Chinese strong Japanese/ European strong

Core components(upstream)

Sany Heavy Industry

(construction machinery)


Global machinery makers: (1) Factory automation

Source: Nomura

Industry Japan Europe/North America China/Taiwan/Korea

SMC(6273 JP) Festo(Unlisted) Airtac(1590 TW)

CKD(6407 JP) Parker Hannifin(PH US)

THK(6481 JP) Bosh Rexroth(Unlisted) Nanjing Technical Equipment(Unlisted)

NSK(6471 JP) Schneeberger(Unlisted) Hiwin Technologies(Unlisted)

Nippon Thompson(6480 JP) Schaeffler Technologies(Unlisted)

Fanuc(6954 JP) Siemens(SIE GY)

Mitsubishi Electric(6503 JP)

GSK CNC Equipment(Unlisted)

Mitsubishi Electric(6503 JP) Siemens(SIE GY)

Yaskawa Electric(6506 JP) Lenze AC-Tech(Unlisted)

Panasonic(6752 JP) Rockwell Automation(ROK US) GSK CNC Equipment(Unlisted)

Fanuc(6954 JP) Delta Electronics(2308 TT)

Yaskawa Electric(6506 JP) ABB(ABB SS) Delta Electronics(2308 TT)

Fuji Electric(6504 JP) Siemens(SIE GY)

Mitsubishi Electric(6503 JP) Schneider Electric(SU FP)

Toshiba(6502 JP) Emerson Electric(EMR US)

Omron(6645 JP) Siemens(ABB SS) Small local firms

Keyence(6861 JP) Schneider Electric(SU FP)

Mitsubishi Electric(6503 JP) Rockwell Automation(ROK US)

Kawasaki Heavy Industries(7012 JP) Bosh Rexroth(Unlisted)

Nabtesco(6282 JP)

KYB(7242 JP) Dongyang Mechatronics(013570 KS)

Toshiba Machine(6104 JP)

Fujikoshi(6474 JP)

Fanuc(6954 JP) ABB(ABB SS) Siasun(300024 CH)

Yaskawa Electric(6506 JP) KUKA(KU2 GY)

Kawasaki Heavy Industries(7012 JP)

Fujikoshi(6474 JP)

Jiangsu Hengli Highpressure

Oilcylinder(Unlisted)

Wuhan Huazhong Numerical

Control(300161 CH)

Wuhan Huazhong Numerical

Control(300161 CH)

Hydraulic equipment

Robots

Ball screws

Linear guides

Pneumatic equipment

NC equipment

Servomotors

Inverters

Control equipment

3


Global machinery makers: (2) Other machinery

Source: Nomura

Industry Japan Europe/North America China/Taiwan/Korea

Fuji Machine Mfg(6134 JP) Siemens(SIE GY) Torch(Unlisted)

Panasonic(6752 JP) Phillips Topaz(PVH US)

Juki(6440 JP)

Yamaha Motor(7272 JP)

Amada(6113 JP) Trumpf(Unlisted)

Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool(002559 CH)

Yamazaki Mazak(Unlisted) Gildemeister(GIL GY) Shenyang Machine Tool(000410 CH)

Okuma(6103 JP) MAG(Unlisted) Dalian Machine Tool(Unlisted)

Moriseiki(6141 JP) Schular(Unlisted) Hyundai Wia(011210 KS)

Makino Milling Machine(6135 JP) Haaz(Unlisted) Doosan Infracore(042670 KS)

Amada(6113 JP) Heller(Unlisted)

Sumitomo Heavy Industries(6302 JP) Arburg(Unlisted) Haitian International(1882 HK)

Nissei Plastic Industrial(6284 JP) Husky(HSE CN) Zhenxiong(57 HK)

Fanuc(6954 JP)

Japan Stel Works(5631 JP)

Toshiba Machine(6104 JP)

Komatsu(6301 JP) Caterpillar(CAT US) Doosan Infracore(042670 KS)

Hitachi Construction Machinery(6305 JP)Volvo(VOLVB SS) Hyundai Heavy(009540 KS)

Kobe Steel(Kobelco Construction Sany Heavy Industry(600031 CH)

Machinery, 5406 JP) Lonking(3339 HK)

Zoomlion(1157 HK)

Kubota(6326 JP) John Deere(DE US) First Tractor(38 HK)

Iseki(6310 JP) New Holland(Unlisted) Foton Lovol Heavy Industries(Unlisted)

Yanmar(Unlisted)

Injection molding

machines

Construction machinery

Agricultural machinery

Jiangsu JinFangYuan CNC

Machine(Unlisted)

Chip mounter

Sheet metal processing

machines

Machine tools

4


What drives China FA?

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Beijing Shanghai

(RMB/Month)

Shanghai and Beijing minimum wages0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Beijing

Shanghai

Shanghai and Beijing minimum wages(%y-y) (%)

(CY)Source: CEIC, Nomura

5


Machine tools without NC

Source: Nomura6


Machine tools with NC

Source: Nomura

7


FA level in China (NC Ratio)

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

05/1 06/1 07/1 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1

(kUnit) (kUnit)Non-NC machine tools output(LHS)

NC machine tools output(RHS)

(CY)

10

15

20

25

30

35 China Machine Tools NC ratio (Monthly)

198828%

201083%

201029%

0

20

40

60

80

100

76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08

(%)

(CY)

NC ratio = machine tools equipped with NC systems / total machine tools (volume basis)

Japan

China

(%)

Source: Japan Machine Tools Association, CEIC, Nomura8


Japan/China NC machine tools output

0

50

100

150

200

250

70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10

Japan NC Machine Tools Output

China NC Machine Tools output

(kUnit)

(CY)

9

Source: Japan Machine Tools Association, CEIC, Nomura


Pricing image

(made in Japan)

High grade/specialized 120-150

High grade/mass 100

production

Medium grade/mass 50-70

production

Low-priced ～30

Note: Prices are rough estimates.

Source: Nomura

South Korea

China(Domestic)

Germany/Switzerland

Japan/Germany

Taiwan

Japan is the leading exporter of machine tools to China

Demand structure Chinese imports of machine tools by origin

日本

台湾

ドイツ

アメリカ

韓国

0

10

20

30

40

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

(%)

(CY)

Japan

Taiwan

Germany

US

South Korea

Source: Nomura

10

Source: Nomura based on data from Japan Machine Tools Association

Source: Nomura based on interviews

(Made in Japan =100)


Fanuc: Top share for NC equipment in China

Market share for NC equipment Total sales by region (FY10E)

Note: Volume basis. FY08 Nomura estimates.

Source: Nomura

（％）　　　Fanuc's

shareMajor competitors

Japan 70 Mitsubishi Electric

North America 30 Siemens

Europe 36Siemens,

Heidenhain(Germany)

Korea and Taiwan 80 Mitsubishi Electric

China 50 Siemens, Mitsubishi Electric

India 50 Siemens

World total 50 Siemens

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fanuc

clients

Others

Japan

14%

Europe

12%

The

Americas

13%

Others

Factoring

in indirect

exports

by clients

Source: Nomura

Japan

25%Asia

52%

Asia

60%

The

Americas

12%

Europe

10%

11


Chinese largest maker: Shenyang Machine Tool

Source: Nomura based on company material

12


Source: Nomura based on company material

Japan

Japan

Japan

Germany

TaiwanHydraulic cylinder

Bearing

Ball screw

NC equipmentServo motor

Linear guide

ItalyTool chuck

Shenyang Machine Tool: Origin of key components

13


Source: Nomura

Machine Tools: Fanuc NC

14


Source: Nomura

Machine Tools

15


Source: Nomura

Machine Tools: GSK NC

16


Source: Nomura

Machine Tools

17


Source: Nomura

Machine Tools: Fiyang NC

18


Source: Nomura

Machine Tools: Pneumatic Equipment (SMC)

19


Source: Nomura

Machine Tools: Pneumatic Equipment (AirTac)

20


SMC: Top share for pneumatic equipment in China

Market share in China (FY 10) Sales by region (FY11E)

Source: Nomura

China

12%

Other Asia

15%

Others

Europe

16%

Japan

41%

North

America

13%

SMC, 37%

Airtac, 14%

Festo, 13%

CKD, 4%

Others, 32%

China

Pneumatic Equipment

Market (2010)

21


FA level in China (Robots)

Source: International Federation of Robotics, Nomura

22

0

2

4

6

8

10

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

North America

Japan

Germany

South Korea

(Unit)

8.1Unit

6.6Unit

Welding robots installed of every 1,000 automobile produced

5.6Unit

（CY）0

1

2

3

4

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

China

（Unit）

3.4 Unit

Robots installed of every 1,000 automobile produced

（CY）

Assuming half of the installments are welding robots


Source: Nomura

Automobile Assembly Line

23


Source: Nomura


24


FA level in China (Robots)

100

50–70

10–50

0

20

40

60

80

100

Japan/US/European companies' plants in

industrialized nations

Japan/US/European companies' plants in

China

Chinese companies' plants in China

Welding robots per line at plants of Japanese/European automakers

located in industrialized nations indexed at 100

Source: Nomura based on interviews

25


Collaboration between Machine tools and Robot

Source: Nomura26


Source: Nomura

Industrial Robot: Pneumatic equipment

27


Source: Nomura

Industrial Robot(Siasun): China local brand

28


Source: Nomura

Industrial Robot(Siasun): Components are from Japan

29


Source: Nomura

Industrial Robot used in Auto industry(1)

30


Source: Nomura

Industrial Robot used in Auto industry(2)

31


Source: Nomura

Pneumatic equipment used in Auto Parts Assembly

32


Source: Nomura

Automation line

33


Source: Nomura


34


Source: Nomura

Zoom up: Pneumatic equipments are from Japan

35


Appendix:

iPad aluminum body is machined by Fanuc machine tool

36

Source: Nomura


Fanuc: Robo-drill

37Source: Nomura based on company material


Fanuc: Fist robot

38Source: Nomura


39

Excavators in China: Komatsu is #1 with premium prices

Excavator market share in China (over 6t, CY2010)

Source: Nomura

Doosan Infracore

(Korea)

12%

Hyundai Heavy

(Korea)

10%

Kobelco (Japan)

10%

Sany Heavy

(China)

10%

Caterpillar (US)

7%

Volvo (Lingong)

(Sweden/China)

4%

Other

11%

2010

hydraulic

excavator

market shares

Komatsu

(Japan)

16%

Hitachi Construction Machinery

(Japan)

11%

Lingong

(China)

3%

Sunward

(China)

2%


Hydraulic equipment controls the movement of hydraulic

excavators

Travel motor

(Nabtesco)

Engine

(Komatsu)

Hydraulic pump

(Kawasaki)Hydraulic valve

(Kawasaki)

Swing motor

(Toshiba)

Cylinder

(KYB)

Forward /

reverse motion

Rotary motion

Extension /

retraction and

digging motion

of arm

40Source: Nomura based on company material

Title Slide - up to 2 lines - Home - NOMURA€¦ · · 2011-06-15Sany Heavy Industry ... South Korea China(Domestic) Germany/Switzerland Japan/Germany ... Title Slide - up to 2

Documents