Title: Political Brand Association: The Tale of Two ...€¦ · In developing brand association to manage brand/market relationships, Farquhar and Herr (1993: 265) note a two-dimensional

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Title:

Political Brand Association: The Tale of Two Political Party Brands in Twenty Years.

Dr. Kobby Mensah1

University of Ghana Business School

Department of Marketing and Customer Management

P. O. Box LG78, Legon, Accra

Ghana

Email: [email protected]

Draft Paper. Not for citation

© March, 2015

1 My areas of expertise include Political Marketing, Tourism Marketing and Financial Services Marketing.

I use this opportunity to offer my sincere appreciation to Dr. Lord Mensah and Dr Eric Ofosu-Hene of the Department of finance,

UGBS; my Graduate and National Service assistants, Edem Amenuvor and Deborah Narh, and all the MPhil students, especially

Alex Anlesinya and Bukari Zakari for the various contributions in getting this research completed successfully.

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Abstract

The aim of this study is to establish whether changes in party

leadership could result in changes in party behaviour and voter choice

in Ghana. The study also offers insights into who the likely voters are

for the two dominant parties in Ghana, the National Democratic

Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP), how their voting

patterns have evolved, and the causes of this evolution. In order words,

the study tries to identify the age, gender, and class distribution of

voters for the two parties. It argues that changes in party leadership

over the past 20 years have influenced voter perceptions on party

brands and party choice over the years.

1. Introduction

Since 1992 when Ghana was returned to democracy, academics, political commentators, party

activists, and indeed the electorates, have held the view that the two dominant parties, National

Democratic Congress (NDC) and New Patriotic Party (NPP), appeal to two sections of the

society, broadly speaking. The NPP of the right is known to be predominantly upper class, and

the left of centre NDC party is predominantly lower class.

For twenty years of multi-party democracy these perceptions on party-voter class associations

have held same amongst academics, practitioners, experts in media and politics, despite changes

in both parties’ leadership and management styles. Furthermore, the two parties are known to

have entrenched regional and ethnocentric appeals, which will be discussed further in the paper.

Most electioneering campaign studies in Ghana (Mensah, 2009; Ninsin, 2006; Youde, 2005;

Gyimah-Boadi, 2001; Nugent, 2001; Ayee, 2000; 1997; Anebo, 1997) affirm this belief, until

Tweneboah-Koduah et al (2010) study on political brand choice in Ghana which alludes to a

gradual shift from the previously held class, regional and ethnocentric associations. However, the

latter study is also limited in varied ways, and will be discussed. That notwithstanding, these

studies have played pivotal role in unearthing the phenomenon of how political parties in Ghana

seek to brand themselves, serving as foundation scholarship on which further studies could

evolve.

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Indeed, scholarship in Ghana could not be the only culprit to blame for failing to track the

changes to political brand associations that leadership change brings. The political parties

themselves could only hazard a guess about the profile of their core voters, and most

undoubtedly, are unsure about the effect of leadership change on voter choice. The leadership of

the NPP, for example, have on various platforms denied being a party of predominantly affluent

and well educated class (Mensah, 2012). They argue that if anything at all the party’s origin from

farming areas of the country such as Ashanti, Brong Ahafo, Western and northern Ghana should

suffice in thinking that their political brand has a broader appeal across class. The party again

argues that its main opposition, the NDC is equally elitist as it also appeals to those sections of

society.

Perhaps the NPPs claim is premised on the assumption that the NDC, over the years, has

changed in ‘temperament’ as a result of changes in its frontline political operatives and

leadership. The NDC party today can boast of young politicians, political operatives and

followers who could be considered elites. Just as the NPP, leadership of the NDC today are

predominantly graduates from some of the country’s renowned universities; a variant of its past

when it was perceived as a party belonging to ‘those of the streets’. Since 2000, the NDC has

been led by a professor and a public relations expert, Atta Mills and John Mahama respectively,

both graduates and of elite backgrounds. The scenarios above, on both parties, draw us to the

study questions as follows:

What is the age and gender distribution of votes for the two parties?

What is the perceived class distribution of votes for the two parties?

Would change in party leadership affect party behaviour and voter choice?

How have the voting patterns for these two parties changed, and what are the causes for

the change?

Are NPP and NDC still perceived as predominantly upper and lower classes respectively?

Answers to these questions are cardinal to devising a compelling political marketing strategy

effective in targeting the voter. This research therefore offers the base information on which

these two parties could adequately profile the voter and target them effectively with campaign

messages. Thus, the sections are divided into five key areas. The first is to elaborate on the

emerging literature of political marketing in Ghana, focusing on political brand association, and

how that sits within the global context of political brand association, party behaviour and voter

choice, as the next section. The methodology through which the study was carried out will be

accounted for in the third section, followed by findings and discussions in the fourth section. The

concluding section will draw the curtain on the discussions.

1.1 Brand Association: definition, types and its application in political marketing

The concept brand association has been defined and operationalized in many ways (Uggla, 2005;

Schneider, 2004; Kapferer, 1997). From party management perspective, Kapferer (1997), for

example notes that political parties seek to brand associate by personalizing the political brand

through functional and emotional attributes in order that they can reinforce the brand in the

minds of the consumer (Kapferer, 1997: 109). Kapferer's views are supported by Schneider

(2004), who observes that brands that have the ability to generate recall are those that have

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established knowledge structures of what they stand for in the minds of consumers over time.

Hence, consumers who see a reflection of themselves in these brands would choose them during

purchase. For example, the automobile company Volvo has over the years been able to link

safety as benefit to its brand, and Mercedes-Benz for prestige. This means, not only do the

marques of these automobile brands generate recall of the brand name, but also the benefits they

offer the consumer. Therefore, a consumer for safety need would choose Volvo, and that for

prestige would choose Mercedes-Benz.

In British politics, the Conservative and Labour parties have long been associated with fiscal

discipline and social justice respectively, due to their long standing policy positions on Taxes,

the NHS and other socio economic needs of the people. Hence a voter who predominantly seeks

social justice through redistribution of wealth would choose the Labour party, and one whose

self-concept aligns with fiscal discipline, individual responsibility would choose the

Conservatives.

Uggla (2005) also talks of brand association as anything that symbolically represents the brand in

the minds of the target customer. Thus defining the concept as ‘the link a brand establishes with

its stakeholders through, for example, people, places, institutions that add to (or subtract from)

customers knowledge of the brand’ (2005: 789). That means not only do institutions such as

political parties use ideology to anchor their brand, but are also able to use "iconic" personalities

and issue positions to do same; and such anchors can add or detract value through the action or

inaction of the brand, and/or other players in the industry. For example, a consistent on-time

delivery of consignments by a postal company (a functional attribute) will naturally enhance the

impression held about the company as a dependable partner (emotional attribute), especially if

the statement ‘a dependable partner’ happens to be the postal company’s slogan. On the other

hand, a customer perspective association could be the emotive personal attribute of the company

as a dependable partner that the customer beholds, is most likely to weigh on the costumer’s

choice when faced with a similar purchase decision in future.

In developing brand association to manage brand/market relationships, Farquhar and Herr (1993:

265) note a two-dimensional framework of brand-to-associate and associate-to-brand. Within

the wider debate on how the political brand is managed, brand-to-associate is market-driven

whereas associate-to-brand is market-driving, to use Day’s (1994) market orientation theory. The

benefit in operationalizing the two, according to Kapferer, is the opportunity not only to build a

brand but also to stretch the brand—leveraging—to other terrains not original to it. In

implementing the market-driven brand-to-associate strategy, an organization examines internally

held values of the brand, its identity for example, to understand the brand’s basic uniqueness and

who it targets (Kapferer, 1995: 30). This first step helps gain insights in product performance

features that are suitable for the target market. It also assists in developing the brand’s marketing

activities, such as communications to support the brand.

In the Volvo example cited earlier, the brand name is synonymous or associated with the word

safety because the company inculcates the idea of safety, not only in their communication but

also in product design, according to the managing director and the technical manager, Assar

Gabrielsson and Gustav Larson (1927).

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On the other hand, operationalizing market-driving associate-to-brand orientation means

identifying market expectations (consumer values) and associating the brand’s values to match

those expectations. It involves re-examination of the brand’s identity and keeping track of the

brand’s image and reputation—opinions about the brand held by consumers. The process of

associate-to-brand is crucial to renewing the brand’s relevance to the market, as it is in stretching

the brand to other markets not original to the brand. The process involves asking two main

questions, according to Kapferer (1997: 169). The first is how do we adapt to the changing

conditions whilst keeping the brand’s identity? And the other is what should we adapt and what

do we leave untouched? This exercise is thus important as the brand’s clientele and market

expectations change overtime.

Associate-to-brand strategy is especially crucial for brand extension, when a decision is taken to

advance a product into other markets. In the case of Volvo, for example, when the association

‘safety’ is mentioned, it should evoke brand Volvo. However, with people becoming ‘time poor’;

having more to do within a short time, the brand needs to find out other values that are of

concern to consumers aside ‘safety’. This may yield results such as less time spent in

commuting, not necessarily safety, for automobile buyers, especially the younger generation.

This means for Volvo to remain relevant and expand its market share, the brand needs to adapt

the association ‘fast’, whilst keeping its original identity of ‘safety’, hence becoming the ‘safest

fast’ car in an attempt to tap into the ‘yuppie’ (young urban professional) market of today.

The exposition of brand association, its forms and applicability in politics and in commerce, as

noted above, suggest that not only could NDC and NPP use ideology, an inherent value of the

political offering, to represent the brand in the minds of voters but also adapt values external to

them as their political brand representation in the minds of voters. In this regard references could

be made to some few studies in the political marketing literature (Mensah, 2009; Tweneboah-

Koduah et al, 2010; Hinson and Tweneboah-Koduah, 2010) that have researched into the

concept of political brand association in Ghana and others in political science and sociology that

have looked at how parties in Ghana campaign and attract votes (Ninsin, 2006; Youde, 2005;

Gyimah-Boadi, 2001; Nugent, 2001; Ayee, 2000; 1997; Anebo, 1997). Of these studies,

Tweneboah-Koduah et al (2010) is the closest to the current study.

2. Literature on political brands and voter choice in Ghana

In a study conducted in 2007 on voter choice in Ghana from political brand perspectives,

Tweneboah-Koduah et al (2010) allude to a confused state of political brand association amongst

voters. Their central objective was to understand whether political parties in Ghana were

managed as brands, and if that impacts on voter choice. The qualitative study had a total of 82

focus groups discussions conducted in eight regions (42 constituencies out of a total of 230 at the

time) in Ghana. The questions that the study operationalized, as noted in the responses, were

predominantly party and policy based (Tweneboah-Koduah et al, 2010: 84-86). The focus group

of 8-12 members in each group were registered voters with no indication of party membership or

any strong attachment to a party; neither were respondents’ level of education important to the

study.

The main objective was to gain deep insight of voter behaviour in political choice making

amongst Ghanaian voting age population of 20-45. The study was to enable them understand

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whether voters in Ghana could link certain constructs to the two political brands, NDC and NPP,

and if such constructs could influence political choice (2010: 83). The study applied Kapferer’s

brand identity prism (2004), measuring voters’ response against six theory frameworks as listed

below:

The Brand Physique

The Brand as a Personality

A Brand has Its Own Culture

A Brand is a Relationship

The Brand is Also a Customer Reflection

A Brand Speaks to the Target’s Self-Image

Per their findings, almost all the constructs, except brand as a personality, had less than half of

the respondents identifying, positively or negatively, an association to the party brand. For

example, under political party brand’s physique, which is to measure a respondent ability to

recall any relevant functional or physical component of a brand when the name is mentioned, the

study note that when respondents were asked which policies, programs…would they associate

with NPP and NDC, less than half associated NPP with road construction, national health

insurance, freedom of speech and human right. More than half however, could recall NPP’s

election 2004 campaign slogan “4 more years… so far so good”, without prompting.

For the NDC, respondents could not associate the party with any specific projects and programs,

according to the study, and went further to credit NDC initiated projects such as GETFUND to

NPP, thus indicating the chaotic nature of the party's communication, the study suggests. On

brand as a personality, the study reported more than half of respondents describing NPP’s

personality in the negative as “betrayer, boastful...” with the positives as “democratic,

peaceful…” The NDC associations were “violence...lack of internal democracy.” The

NDC was also not associated with any philosophy, policies and programs.

There is however a significant revelation in Tweneboah-Koduah et al (2010) study that departs

from previously held assumptions on voter-party brand associations in Ghana. On brand as

customer reflection and voter self-image constructs, which seek to measure the likelihood of a

voter choosing a political brand based on the nearness of their characteristics and values to that

of the party brand, in the question: who was more likely to be a supporter/ member of NDC/NPP,

the study reported that less than half of the focus group respondents claimed someone from

Ashanti Region and, or, Eastern region for NPP, and someone from the Volta Region or parts of

the North, for the NDC.

This is in contrast with previously held view of regionalisation and ethnocentric pattern of voter-

party brand association. Findings in extant literature (Ninsin, 2006; Youde, 2005; Gyimah-

Boadi, 2001; Nugent, 2001; Ayee, 2000; 1997; Anebo, 1997) suggest that respondents would

overwhelmingly refer to regional and ethnocentric associations for partisan identification when

asked similar questions. Again, in Tweneboah-Koduah et al (2010) study, the finding that less

than half of the focus group respondents think the “masses” across ethnicity may vote NDC and

the “elites” vote NPP is also startling, and contrary to previously held beliefs, as the reverse had

been the case in Ghana, it is believed.

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Tweneboah-Koduah and colleagues thus concluded that though there were evidence of branding,

political parties are however “not properly managed as brands in order to invoke mental

associations nor intense emotional effects with voters as power brands do with consumers”

(2010: 87). The study findings suggest least existence of political brand association enough to

offer the party brand equity, as there is in consumers’ minds about commercial brands. This is

contrary to findings in extant political science literature that suggest strong partisan identification

amongst Ghanaian electorates (Gyima-Boadi, 2001; Anebo, 2001; CDD, 1999).

Though important, as it indicates a gradual shift from previously held views, and could offer

insight to political practitioners, Tweneboah-Koduah et al (2010) study is limited in some ways.

It lacks contextual appreciation where the political system, media system and voter dynamics

differ from country to country. For example, the difference in the conceptualisation of party-

voter relations and product-consumer relations, where the level of information/knowledge

structures possessed in the latter is higher than that of the former must be appreciated. In the case

of the former, political maturity would determine a respondent’s ability to recognise certain

associative constructs, such as a party’s ‘philosophy’ for example, as in the response that:

NDC… was not associated with any philosophy, policies and programs.

In this regard, Anebo (2001: 85), in a study on “Ghana election 2000: voter choice and electoral

decisions”, notes that low level of political knowledge of the majority of the Ghanaian electorate,

coupled with the community based interest politics, and other primordial characteristics of the

Ghanaian social structure, citizens have little incentive to evaluate parties and candidates on

issues and competency. Secondly, the revelation that less than half of study respondents feel that

voter-party brand association is less regional, ethnocentric and class oriented itself demonstrates

that the approaches adopted by political parties to wean themselves from these associations in

order to appeal to a broader target are working. Hence, the claim that political parties are not

being effectively managed as brands is contrary to their own findings and existing knowledge.

To claim that there is least existence of political brand association constructs in the minds of the

respondents just because they were unable to articulate detailed policy or party values, as

Tweneboah-Koduah et al (2010) suggest, depart from political science theory, and also new

studies in political marketing on candidate brands, where voter choice is underpinned by

ideology and other factors such as candidate values; meaning the closer a voter’s belief or value

is to a party’s ideological position or candidate characteristics, the likely the choice of that party

in elections. This approach is market-driven, as parties brand-to-associate with voter needs and

characteristics.

It is also noted in other studies (Mensah, 2009; Gyimah-Boadi, 2001; Nugent, 2001) that not

only have parties been market-driven, by branding to associate with voters, but have been market

driving where parties have associated with other constructs outside them in order to brand in

Ghana. For example, Mensah notes of the 2008 elections that NPP, with the elephant as its

emblem adopted also the “hopping kangaroo dance” of the national football team, the black stars

and a popular gospel song, go high, as their campaign song in order to reinforce their message:

“yee – ko ye – nim,” to wit, “we are moving forward.” The NDC with the umbrella as traditional

party symbol also adopted the signs that football coaches and fans do at tournaments, “finger

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wriggling” of both hands lifted upwards to indicate a desire to change a player. A move to

reinforce their message of “ye – re se sa – mu,” meaning, “change”. These symbols as introduced

in the 2008 elections, and those before them in previous elections, have high recognition

amongst voters in Ghana, and are quickly recalled and associated with their respective parties

that ‘owned’ them even years after their introduction.

Other studies have also shown that voters rely on cognitive shortcuts as a substitute for detailed

information (Needham, 2005; Lupia and McCubbins, 1998; Neuman et al., 1992). They explain

that when a political element—the party, candidate or policy—is heavily promoted and gains

visibility unequal to the rest, and is used as a representation of the rest in the party political

structure, it is most likely that voters will have a ‘remarkable’ knowledge of that element which

is mostly promoted. This makes Tweneboah-Koduah et al dominant emphasis on inherent party

and policy associations problematic for the respondents in that study. In this direction, Needham

(2005) observes that aside ideology voters have impressionistic perceptions about candidates in

electoral choice-making.

In Ghana, findings of electoral campaign studies (Mensah, 2009; Gyimah-Boadi, 2001; Ayee,

2000) show that the political candidate is highly promoted in recent Ghanaian elections than the

party and the policy. Hence the difficulty in voter recollection of associations linked to the party

and the policy brands beyond the broad generalisation of party name, slogans, emblems, colours

and campaign themes, such as ‘the agenda for positive change’.

Based on the discussions above, could the results of Tweneboah-Koduah et al (2010) be different

should they have broadened the theories of associations in the study? It suffice to say, therefore,

that should we accept a lack of association, even as basic as ideological nearness based on which

voters make political choice then we are admitting that voters in Ghana are becoming less

ideological in their choices. Is it also the case that political parties are becoming so, or both? Can

we say that voters know very little about political candidates, and where they belong given that

our media-political landscape in the last 20 years have been predominantly presidential –

personality driven?

These scenarios, as suggested by Tweneboah-Koduah and colleagues, could be disputed given

that the two parties have consistently mastered on or around 40 per cent of the voter share each

electoral cycle in the last 20 years. For example, the Centre for Democratic Governance (CDD)

1999 ‘Afrobarometer’ survey of the Ghanaian electorate suggests a substantial partisan

identification in Ghana with about 66 per cent of respondents interviewed claiming to identify

with a party strongly. In that survey 38 per cent of respondents interviewed identified with the

NDC, a mirror image of what the party claims is the size of its membership relative to the total

electorate (Ninsin, 2006: 18). On the other hand, 25 per cent identified with the NPP. Both

parties boast of having that share of the electoral market as constant and only need to fight a little

bit more to scale the 50+1 per cent mark to win elections. These claims have consistently been

proven by the two parties’ electoral performance every electoral cycle since 1992. Perhaps it

could be argued that Tweneboah-Koduah et al framework with which the study was conducted is

not broad enough to deal with the inherent limitations of typical marketing frameworks that we

cloak on political phenomenon. The study does not take into account the concepts of political

sophistication (Luskin, 1990; Converse, 1964; Campbell et al., 1960), where Luskin, for

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example, defines political sophistication as ‘the extent to which a person’s political cognitions

are numerous, cut across a wide substantive swath, and are highly organized or ‘constrained’

(Luskin, 1990: 332).

According to Luskin, political sophistication suggest that interest and intelligence, representing

motivation and ability, have major effects, but that education and media exposure, the big

informational variables, do not necessarily provide the impetus for sophistication (1990: 331).

This means that voters, just like consumers, are not equal in their understanding of—and interest

in—the political product regardless of levels of education and exposure to news media, and how

it impacts on their motivation to seek political knowledge, vote or to abstain from voting. This

and many other factors that limit the extant literature on this subject have been dealt with in the

current study. It could thus be argued that Tweneboah-Koduah et al study is a victim of the

caution given by some political marketing experts (Henneberg, 2004; O‘Shaughnessy, 2001;

Lock and Harris, 1996) that the conceptualisation of the political phenomenon in the same way

as the market place is problematic. That is not to say they entirely negate marketing‘s

applicability in politics, and so the study is majorly flawed. Rather, they suggest the need to

adapt and develop frameworks capable of responding to the tensions as explained.

O‘Shaughnessy, for example, notes that “we should not assume political contexts are invariably

analogous to business to the extent that methods can be imported and used with equal effect.”

(2001: 1047). Henneberg (2004) cautions that our increasing quest to demonstrate that marketing

works (or worse, do not work) in politics has resulted in stunted growth of political marketing,

where there is lack of effort to develop new theories to explain the political marketing

subdomain. And Lock and Harris (1996) also caution the direct transfer of the marketing

principle and associated theories into politics, identifying seven key differences that make the

application of political marketing in politics difficult (Lock and Harris 1996: 14-15). Among

these factors is that:

The political party or candidate is a complex intangible product which the voter cannot

unbundle. As a consequence most voters have to judge on the overall packaged concept or

message (Lock and Harris, 1996, pp. 14-15).

In the above quote, Lock and Harris argue that because voters are unable to unbundle the

electoral product offering, the majority choose on the basis of the overall political package,

concept, or image. They argue that while there are other complex products or services which

consumers are unable to unbundle, the range of concepts and issues in the political bundle

distinguish it from such situations noting that, ‘voters’ perceptions of party characteristics can be

blurred and their knowledge of specific policies is low’ as against consumer knowledge in

commerce where ‘consumers have remarkably homogeneous perceptions of product

characteristics’ (Lock and Harris, 1996: 14-15). This gap in product knowledge sophistry

explains the inability of respondents in Tweneboah-Koduah et al (2010) study to link policy

initiatives such as ‘Getfund’ to the right party brand.

The question of voter choice and association in the Ghanaian political space, especially in the

2000 elections, has also been highlighted by other studies (Anebo, 2001; Gyima-Boadi, 2001;

Ayee, 2000; Mensah, 2012), where it is noted that the NPPs electioneering strategy in 2000 made

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use of policy and candidate attributes as associative elements to differentiate itself from

competitors in that elections. According to these studies the NPP campaign in the 2000 general

elections used their candidate’s image to project difference between them and their rival party,

NDC. Despite this development of voter targeting, using political brand association it is still

unclear who the core voter is to the NPP and NDC, and how have they changed over the years? It

is thus argued in this study that for twenty (20) years since the inception of multiparty democracy

and the increasing intensity and sophistry of political campaigning, parties in Ghana still lack the

understanding of voter dynamics; who is the target voter, how are they changing, and what is

informing the change?

The blurring of who is likely to vote NPP, NDC or any other party for that matter is leading

political parties in Ghana to miss-strategise and miss-target their campaign. A case in point is the

2012 general elections when “free or quality education” became the centre stage of the two

parties’ campaigns and the ensued debate as to who got it right. In marketing for example,

effective product and service proposition is premised on the understanding of who your target

consumer is, and that of your competitor. Without this insight, an organisation such as a political

party will not be able to identify rightly the voter’s need and satisfy it. A political party is also

likely to mismanage resources in operationalizing the 4Ps because of their inability to appreciate

rightly the profile of the voter, leading to an overarching failure in strategy for success. This

research therefore offers political parties insight into who their likely voters are, how their voting

patterns have evolved, and the causes of this evolution. Based on this information, political

parties will be able to position their offerings and target better their political campaign messages

in the coming 2016 general elections.

2.1 Does leadership change affect party behaviour, and voter choice?

This study is also aimed at understanding whether party leadership changes in Ghana are

impacting on party behaviour, brand image and voter choice. Hence, a look into the literature in

this direction is paramount. The political brand literature is replete with strategies for political

parties to maintain difference from competitors and also to stand identified to voters. In practice,

studies (Worcester and Baines, 2006; Needham, 2006; Reeves et al., 2006; Norris, 2001) suggest

an increasing use of the brand concept by political parties to differentiate and identify themselves

just as commercial firms do. Based on the knowledge that the traditional means of political

branding using ideology is limited and obsolete (Lees-Marshment, 2001; Needham, 2006;

Reeves et al., 2006; Scammell, 1999), research in political branding propose the idea of using

candidate attributes as the basis for developing and managing the political brand, and to

influence voter choice (Needham, 2006; Reeves et al., 2006; Scammell, 1999). Hence, the

creation of a political brand based on attributes associated with candidates (Needham, 2006;

Reeves et al., 2006).

The concept of candidate branding, and its impact on a party’s electoral fortune, is one of the

topical issues in political brand literature (Needham, 2006; White and De Chernatony, 2001;

Worcester and Baines, 2006). Although policy positions and party ideals continue to play

significant roles in electioneering, the process of image-building of political candidates and the

public perceptions of attributes considered desirable of a candidate are regarded as some of the

factors that impact on election outcomes in most Western democracies, especially in countries of

presidential governments like the US (Scammell, 1999; Norris, 2001; Needham, 2006; Worcester

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and Baines, 2006).

Needham (2006), for example, argues that due to the decline in institutional attachments by

consumers, with its reflections in politics, parties are no longer able to persuade voters with their

inherent values. Instead, political parties need to identify and orient their appeals around values

that voters perceive as desirable to vote for. In this direction, parties aim to choose candidates

around these values. The chosen candidate then nurtures and enhances the party’s image through

his or her leadership and management style that is manifested during discussions and debates,

interaction with voters, the media and other stakeholders all under the spotlight of the interactive

media, well-connected with voters. Through this process, the party begins to remould itself in the

minds of the electorate. The approach, according to Needham (2006), possesses the potency to

create memorable, emotional, and functional pictures in the minds of the electorate. Examples of

parties that have remoulded themselves based on candidates’ characteristics and been successful

at the polls, according to Needham, are Blair and the New Labour party in Britain, and Clinton

and the Democrats in the US (Needham, 2006). These leaders chiefly dictated new ways of

organizing their parties and saw them renewed much along the values of the leaders themselves

(Needham, 2006).

In Ghana, both the NDC and NPP have had changes in party leadership, with presidential

candidates of different characteristics taking charge at different electoral cycles in the past 20

years. We have also seen overwhelming emphasis on candidate personalities in media reporting

before, during and after electioneering (Gyima-Boadi, 2001), making Ghanaian elections more

presidential, akin to that of the US. The question is, have these changes influenced party

behaviour, party brand image and voter choice, eventually? These are the questions the study

seeks to address through the methods below.

3. Methodology

3.1 Study design and sampling

This study is quantitative and exploratory, using both secondary and primary sources. In

sampling, the Electoral Commission’s (EC) data compilation on elections, and the Accra

Metropolitan Assembly’s (AMA) area demarcation records were used to determine the sample

frame of 23 constituencies of the Greater Accra region. The AMA’s classification uses

demographic terms, including income levels of residents, housing characteristic and

environmental conditions of the residential suburbs of the city. The classification is stratified into

four (4) income zones to enable viable determination of level of poverty, according to the AMA.

This classification has been adopted by the AMA and gazetted in the Local Government Bulletin

of the Assembly (January, 2002).

The electoral register and voting records from the electoral commission, and the AMA’s area

demarcation records were necessary to establish the share of votes for the two parties in

constituencies that are predominantly lower and upper classes. The determination of share of

votes in the last 20 years was necessary to gain initial insight on the relationship between class

and voter choice of party. Out of the 23 constituencies, seven (7) were selected through stratified

random sampling technique using the AMA’s four (4) classification, based on which further

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reclassification was made for the purposes of this study. In this direction, constituencies that are

predominantly 1st and 2nd class residential areas were grouped as upper class stratum, and those

with predominantly 3rd and 4th class residential areas were classed lower. The two strata were

later arranged in alphabetical order and each was assigned numbers to simple randomly select the

sample. This exercise resulted in the following constituencies: Ablekuma North, Ablekuma

South, Ayawaso West Wuogon, Dade Kotopon, Ledzokuku, Odododiodio and Okaikwei South

In the primary research, the constituencies mentioned above were surveyed in an attempt to

explore from the inhabitants perceptions on the political brands and what informs the voting

trends. Again, stratified random sampling (disproportionate stratification, where the sample size

of each of the stratum is not proportionate to the population size of the same stratum) was

applied. In choosing sample communities within the constituencies for the administration of the

questionnaire, simple random sample was again used in selecting only one community from each

constituency, leading to the following communities….

3.2 Data collection

Data were collected using structured questionnaire with a lay out of five (5) themed areas,

namely socio-demographic characteristics, voter-party identification, party leadership, party

brand personality and candidate brand personality. Questions defining such dimensions related to

political party leadership and voter choice, for example, are based on a five-point Likert scale.

Every one of the fifteen dimensions of political party and voter choice was clearly represented in

differentiated blocks in the questionnaire. For every dimension, a set of items was included in the

questionnaire. For every item a Likert scale ranging from 1 (strongly agree) to 5 (strongly

disagree) was used to measure the agreement of voter choice and party leadership, for example.

The measuring variables were collated from the literature on party leadership, party behaviour

and voter choice.

For pretesting and assessment of the variables, students, research assistants and lecturers were

requested to check and remark the questions for clarity, consistency, and duplications. These

exercise resulted in some syntactic changes but none reported concept misuse or difficulties in

understanding. In order to ensure reliability of the study, a pre-test pilot study was also

conducted using 50 students as a pilot sample size. A high response rate was recorded with all

the students participating. The pilot study was helpful as it facilitated the reformulation of

research instrument, refined data collection plans in terms of content and procedure. After all

corrections were made, the questionnaires were distributed and collected from participating

qualified voters in seven (7) constituencies in the Greater Accra region.

The study surveyed people of voting age, 18 years and above. In order to attract the maximum

number of participating respondents, an introductory letter was attached to each questionnaire

asking respondents for their participation while stressing the importance of the study and the

researcher’s commitment to privacy and protection of data. In this regard, respondents were also

requested not to provide any personal data that could make references to their person. By the end

of the survey, a usable data of 339 were realized from a total of 400 questionnaire disseminated,

which constitute 85%. The questionnaire was administered in English. However, voters who

could not speak English were assisted by the interviewers in translating into local languages for

the respondents. All questions were answered in the presence of the interviewers administering

13

the questionnaire, and it took two (2) weeks for the exercise to be completed.

3.3 Data Analysis

The data obtained was analysed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 20.

The SPSS was used to generate descriptive statistics, chi-square test and Spearman correlation

for the analysis. The descriptive statistics such as percentage and frequency table were used to

present the demographic profile of the research participants, class of voters and their party of

choice.

The use of these descriptive statistics allowed the researcher to summarise large quantities of

data using measures that can be easily understood. In addition, chi-square was used to test the

significance of differences between two categorical variables, such as the association between

voters’ age and the party voted for in those elections; the association between voter's gender and

the party voted for; and they association between voters' class and the party of choice. In the age

variable, the investigation involved a 3×3 design where age was measured on three levels (ie. 18-

39, 40-61 and 62 and above) and party choice also measured on three levels (ie. NPP, NDC and

others). In gender and party choice, the investigation involved a 2×3 design where gender was

measured on two levels (i.e. male and female) and party choice also measured on three levels

(i.e. NPP, NDC and others). In analyzing the data for the third objective, “how have the voting

patterns for the two parties changed”, the study makes use of survey respondents’ accounts of

how they have voted in the past 20 years, in addition to the secondary data of voter records of the

seven (7) constituencies within the same duration. These two sources are compared to understand

the voting pattern.

For the fourth objective, “would change in leadership affect party behaviour, brand image and

voter choice”, Spearman rank correlation was used to establish whether there is a relationship

between candidate’s characteristics and party behaviour under their leadership. In this direction

respondents were asked to identify the characteristics of party candidate and that of the parties

they lead in order to establish whether there is a relationship between party characteristics and

candidate characteristics. In analyzing data for the final objective, voter perceptual mapping was

created, using strength of partisan and moderation index, which were gleaned from questions that

asked the respondents to indicate which of the voter categories would vote for only NDC, only

NPP or both. The count for only NDC and NPP votes is considered as strength of partisanship –

that is the extent to which a voter category would vote for these parties, and the count for

moderation is the figure indicating the extent to which a voter category would vote cross party.

14

Table 3.1: Respondents’ characteristics

Registered to vote: Frequency Percentage % N

Yes 320 94.4

No 16 4.7

Missing 3 0.9 339

Gender:

Male 179 52.8

Female 133 39.2

Missing 27 8 339

Age:

18-39 233 68.7

40-61 85 25.1

62+ 17 5

Missing 4 1.2 339

Education:

No schooling received 14 4.1

Basic school certificate 42 12.4

Senior school certificate 75 22.1

Trade/Technical/Vocational certificate 38 11.2

Diploma 45 13.3

Professional certificate 23 6.8

Bachelor's Degreedegree 68 20.1

Master's degree 26 7.7

Doctorate degree 1 0.3

Missing 7 2.1 339

Employment status:

Yes 216 63.7

No 107 31.6

Missing 16 4.7 339

Age at first vote:

18-28 273 80.5

29-39 33 9.7

40-50 8 2.4

51-60 3 0.9

62-72 1 0.3

Missing 21 6.2 339

Source: Field survey (2014)

4. Results

Table 1 shows the summary profile of the research participants with respect to their voting status,

gender, age, education, employment status, and age at first vote. From the Table, most (94.4%)

of the participants said they are registered to vote, while few (4.7%) are not registered voters.

Three participants representing 0.9% did not indicate their voting status. Also, more than half

(52.8%) of the participants identified themselves as males, and (39.2%) as females. Few (8.0%)

did not indicate their gender. In terms of age, majority (68.7%) of the participants were within

18-39 age bracket, followed by 40-41 (25.1%) age bracket, and 62 years and above (5%) age

bracket. Few (1.2%) did not provide any answer regarding their age bracket.

With respect to highest educational qualification, majority (22.1%) were holders of senior school

certificate, followed by bachelor degree (20.1%) holders, diploma (13.3%) holders, basic

education certificate (12.4%) holders, trade or technical or vocational (11.2%) holders, master

15

degree (7.7%) holders, professional certificate (6.8%) holders, no schooling received (4.1%) and

doctorate degree (0.3%) holders. 2.1% of the participants did not indicate their level of

educational qualification.

Based on this results, it can be said that most (93.8%) of the participants are educated and can

make meaning decisions. Furthermore, regarding employment status, majority (63.7%) was

employed and a little less than one-third (31.6%) said they were not employed. In terms of

participants age at first vote, most (80.5%) were within 18-28 age bracket, followed by 29-39

(9.7%) age bracket, 40-50 (2.4%) age bracket, 51-61 (0.9%) age bracket and 62-72 (0.3%) age

bracket. 6.2% of the participants did indicate the age bracket they were when they first voted in a

national election.

4. Discussions on study objectives and findings

Conducted in seven (7) constituencies in the Greater Accra region using survey, this study was to

investigate four objectives, namely the age, gender and the class distribution of voters for the two

parties, NPP and NDC; whether the voting patterns for these parties have changed, and the

causes of the change; how changes in party leadership have impacted on party behaviour, party

brand image and voter choice; and finally whether the NDC and NPP are still predominantly

lower and upper class parties. The findings from the study are presented in statistical tables and

graphs, and are discussed in the sections that follow under each of the objectives as sub headings.

4.1 What is the age, gender and class distribution of voters for NPP and NDC from 1992-

2012 in the seven (7) constituencies surveyed?

As discussed in the introduction, it is a universal knowledge in Ghana that the lower class of

society are likely to vote NDC whereas the upper class vote NPP. This knowledge is based on

the ideological categorization of parties, and of society and had increasingly shown in voter

studies in Ghana (references here). However same cannot be said of age and gender. It is equally

difficult for academics and politicians in Ghana to determine the support base of political parties

in these voter categories. Hence, one of the objectives of the study to understand the age and

gender distribution of voters for the two parties, NPP and NDC.

The following statistical tables summarise the relationships between age and gender distribution

of voters and their party choice from 1992 to 2012. These tables are analysed in the sections that

follow, with accompanying graphs for emphasis.

Table 4.1 A simplified contingency table (cross tabulation) of Choice of Political Party by age and gender in 1992-2000 elections in Ghana

Age (years) NPP NDC Others P-value NPP NDC Others P-value NPP NDC Others P-value

18-39 33.9 50 16.1 15.262 0.004 36.5 50 13.5 11.927 0.018 55 38.5 6.4 7.561 0.109

40-61 45.5 49.1 5.5 48.6 44.3 7.1 60.5 32.9 6.6

62+ 31.2 25 43.8 7.6 6.8 28.6 43.8 31.2 25

Gender

Male 40.6 44.9 14.5 1.251 0.535 39.3 47.6 13.1 0.752 0.687 59.8 33.9 53.8 0.802 0.669

Female 34 55.3 10.6 40.7 50.8 8.5 53.5 38 8.5

1992 1996 2000

% of votes % of votes % of votes


16

Table 4.2 A simplified contingency table (cross tabulation) of Choice of Political Party by age and gender in 2004-2012 elections in Ghana

Age (years) NPP NDC Others P-value NPP NDC Others P-value NPP NDC Others P-value

18-39 52.7 40.3 7 7.943 0.094 50.6 44 5.4 10.353 0.035 46.1 45.6 8.3 3.299 0.509

40-61 59.7 33.8 6.5 53.8 41 5.1 53.8 38.5 7.7

62+ 37.5 37.5 25 31.2 43.8 25 47.1 35.3 17.6

Gender

Male 55.9 36.4 7.6 0.316 0.854 47.6 46.2 6.3 2.434 0.296 47.4 43.5 9.1 0.803 0.669

Female 54.8 39.3 6 56.1 40.8 3.1 48.2 45.6 6.1

2004 2008 2012

% of votes % of votes % of votes


4.1a Summary of findings on Age distribution of voters for NPP and NDC parties. From the study findings, as noted in tables 4.1 and 4.2 above, and figures 4.1 and 4.2 below,

respondents of all ages in the study have voted more for the NPP than the NDC in the seven (7)

study constituencies over the last 20 years. The findings suggest that at the early years of Ghana's

fourth republic, younger voters of ages 18-39 in the surveyed constituencies voted more, 50.0%

for NDC as against 33.9% for the NPP. They again favoured the NDC in the 1996 elections, but

at a reduced gap of 2.6% over the NPP. However, there was a shift in favour of the NPP from the

2000 elections, when the party saw its share of this voter market dramatically increased to 55.0%

whereas the NDC saw a drastic reduction to 38.5%. This gains by the NPP has been reducing

consistently, with the gap between them and the NDC narrowing to 0.5% in 2012 elections.

In ages 41-61, again the study findings show that the NPP has an overwhelming dominance over

the NDC in the seven (7) constituencies surveyed. Apart from 1992, where the NDC recorded

49.1% vote over the NPPs 45.5, the NPP surpassed the former with 48.6% as against the NDC's

44.3%. At the height of the NPPs surge in 2000, the party established an astonishing 27.6% gap

over the NDC's 32.9% vote, and by the 2012 elections the former was still leading by 15.3% gap

over the latter. Between the ages of 62 and above, NPP has been dominant once again since

1992, with the exception of 2008 when the NDC gained 12.6% lead over the NPP. By the 2012

elections, the NPP has reestablished its dominance with 11.8% gap.

The study findings also establish significant association between the two variables, age and party

choice in three electoral cycles, 1992, 1996 and 2008 elections, but no relationship between age

and party choice in 2000, 2004 and 2012 elections. The reason behind the association of voter

age and party choice in the early years of Ghana’s democracy is documented in the literature

(Gyima-Buadi, 2001), where as a result of their experiences of the military regime, out of which

came the NDC, voters of upper age brackets are most likely to vote NPP or other parties.

On the other hand, it is noted in literature that significant number of young people in Ghana

joined the youth wing of the NDCs predecessor military regime, PNDC as cadres and so the

party in the early years of democracy enjoyed their support. Furthermore, majority of young

people who were obvious of the military experiences fancied the “youthful exuberance” of the

NDC and its leader at the time, Jerry Rawlings as opposed to the “old age, conservative”

character traits of the NPP. It is not surprising however that 2000 saw no significant relationship

between age and party choice as there was near consensus amongst all category of voters in

Ghana for a new party to take charge after years of P/NDC rule. This consensus might have

followed the party into 2004. What is however surprising is the 2012 elections, where the study

findings suggest no relationship in age and party choice. This is because of the candidature of

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John Mahama of the NDC. He is the youngest to have contested for presidential elections in

Ghana’s history, and his campaign was built around it in the hope that he would appeal to

younger and female voters, yet no relationship was found in the study. Equally surprising is the

2008 elections, where both candidates Atta-Mills of the NDC and Akufo-Addo of the NPP were

of similar demographic characteristics and are most likely to appeal to similar age brackets.

There is also no evidence that these two parties championed any campaign message or issue that

was significantly aimed at age.

Fig. 4.1 Age distribution of voters across parties


Fig 4.2 Age distribution of voters across parties


4.2 Detailed report on the study findings

4.2a Age and party choice in 1992 elections

In figure 4.1 above, a representation of the findings on voter age category of participants who

voted in the 1992 elections and their choice of party could be found. In the 18-39 age category,

the results revealed that half (50.0%) of the participants voted for NDC compared to 33.90% for

NPP and 16.10% for other political parties. Also, in 40-61 age category, majority, 49.10%, voted

for NDC compared to 45.5% for NPP, and 5.50% for other parties. Furthermore, in the 62 and

above year’s category, majority (43.80%) of the respondents voted for other parties followed by

18

NPP (31.20%) and NDC (25.00%). This finding suggests that younger and old people voted

more for NDC compared to NPP and other parties in the 1992 elections, but older people voted

more for other parties against the two major parties. It also suggests that there is an association

between voters’ age group and party choice in the 1992 general election. The chi-square test

showed a significant association between age of voters and choice of party (Chi-square = 15.262;

df =4 p<0.05).

4.2b Age and party choice in 1996 elections

As shown in Figure 4.1 above, half (50.00%) of the participants in the 18-39 age category voted

for NDC in the 1996 general election as against 36.50% for NPP and 13.50% for other parties. In

addition, majority (48.60%) of the participants voted for NPP followed by NDC (44.30%) and

other parties (7.10%) in the 40-61 age category, whereas in the 62 and above year age category,

majority (37.50%) voted for other political parties compared to NPP (31.20%) and NDC

(31.20%). Based on this result, it can be argued that NDC appealed more to younger people

compared to its major competitor in the 1996 general elections; however NPP appealed more to

old people in the 1996 election than NDC. Also, other political parties appealed more to older

people than the two major parties in the 1996 election. This seems to suggest an association

between voters’ age category and party choice in the 1996 election. The chi-square test indicated

a significant association between age of voters and choice of party (Chi-square = 11.927; df =4

p<0.05).

4.2c Age and party choice in the 2000 elections

In figure 4.1 above, it is noted that more than half (55.00%) of the participants in the 18-39 age

category voted for NPP compared to the NDCs less than two-fifth (38.50%), and few (6.40%) for

other parties in the 2000 elections. Furthermore, in the 40-61 age category, more than half

(60.50%) of the participants voted for NPP as against 32.90% for NDC and 6.60% for other

parties. Again, majority (43.80%) in the 62 and above age category voted for NPP, followed by

NDC (31.20%) and other parties (25.00%). Based on this result, it can be suggested that majority

of the voters in the various age categories voted more for NPP against NDC and other parties,

and by extension an indication of association between age category of voters and party choice in

the 2000 general election. The chi-square test performed indicated a no significant association

between age of voters and choice of party in the 2000 election (Chi-square = 11.9; df =4; p

>0.05).

4.2d Age and party choice in 2004 elections From Figure 4.2 above, more than half (52.70%) in the 18-39 age category voted for NPP against

a little over two-fifth (40.30%) for NDC and few (7.00%) for other parties. Similarly, in the 40-

61 age category, more than half (59.70%) voted for NPP in contrast to 33.80% for NDC and

6.50% for other parties. However, in the 62 and above age category, participants voted equally

(37.50%) for the two major parties compared to other parties (25.00%). This results appear to

suggest that the NPP party appealed more to both young and old people in the 2004 election

compared to NDC. Furthermore, the two major parties also seem to appeal to older people in the

19

2004 elections compared to other political parties. In addition, this distribution may indicate

association between age category of voters and party choice in the 2004 election. The chi-square

test showed there is a no significant association between age of voters and choice of party in the

2004 election (Chi-square = 7.943; df =4, p >0.05).

4.2e Age and party choice in the 2008 elections

As noted in Figure 4.2 above, more than half (50.60%) of the participants in the 18-39 age group

voted for NPP in contrast to 44.00% for NDC and 5.40% for other parties. Likewise, in the 40-61

age group, more than half (53.80%) of the participants voted for NPP compared to 41.00% for

NDC, and 5.10% for other parties. However, in the 60 and above age group, majority (43.80%)

voted for NDC against NPP (31.20%) and other parties (25.00%). Inferring from this finding, it

can be said that NPP in the 2008 election was more attractive to both young and old people than

NDC. In the contrary, NDC was more attractive to older people in the 2008 election than NPP

and other parties, hence indication of association between age category and party of choice in the

2008 election. The chi-square test indicated there is a significant association between age of

voters and choice of party in the 2008 election (Chi-square = 710.353; df =4; p<0.05), but the

association is weak (Cramer's V= 0.141).

4.2f Age and party choice in 2012 elections

As shown in Figure 2.6.1, majority (46.10) of the participants in the 18-39 age bracket voted for

NPP followed by NDC (45.60%) and other parties (8.30%). Also, in the 40-61 age bracket, more

than half (53.80%) of the participants voted for NPP compared to a little below two-fifth

(38.50%) of the participants for NDC and few (7.70%) for other parties. More so, in the 62 and

above age category, majority (47.10%) voted for NPP followed by NDC (35.30%) and other

parties (17.60%). Based on this result, it can be concluded that voters in the various age

categories voted more for NPP against NDC and other parties in the 2012 general election, and

may suggest an association between voters’ age category and party choice in the 2012 election.

From the chi-square test performed, there is no significant association between age of voters and

choice of party in the 2012 election (Chi-square = 3.299; df =4; p >0.05).

4.3 Gender and party choice in national elections

Another objective of the study was to determine whether there is a significant association

between gender of voters and party choice in national elections in Ghana. The study employed

descriptive statistics (contingency graph and table) and chi-square test to analyse and present the

research findings, as below.

20

4.3a Summary of findings on gender distribution of voters for NPP and NDC parties.

The pattern of votes in the gender category was similar to that of age. The findings suggest that

both male and female categories voted more for NDC than the NPP in the early years of 1992,

and 1996. Since then the NPP had been dominant from 2000 till date in both male and female

categories of study respondents in the seven (7) constituencies surveyed.

The departure point from that of the age category is that in each electoral cycle, there was no

association established between these two variables – gender and party choice. That potentially

suggest that political parties are not doing enough to tempt the votes of a particular gender group

to warrant their relationship. Each of the gender group may vote for one party over the other

based on other factors other than gender related. The two figures below, 4.3 and 4.4, show

graphical representation of the study findings, and are explained in detail below, cycle on cycle.

Fig 4.3 Gender distribution of voters across parties


Fig 4.4 Gender distribution of voters across parties


4.3.1 Gender and party choice in 1992 elections

Evidenced in figure 4.3 above, majority (44.90%) of male participants voted for NDC followed

by NPP (40.60%), and other parties (14.50%) in the 1992 elections. In addition, more than half

(55.30%) of female participants voted for NDC compared to NPP (34.00%) and other parties

21

(10.60%). It is thus noted from this results that NDC appealed more to both male and female

participants in the study constituencies than NPP in 1992. The chi-square test shows there is no

significant association between gender of voters and choice of party in the 1992 election (Chi-

square = 1.251; df =2; p >0.05).


As shown in figure 4.3 above, more (47.60%) male participants voted for NDC compared to NPP

(39.30%) and other parties (13.10%). Similarly, more than half (50.80%) of female participants

voted for NDC in contrast to 40.70% for NPP and 8.50% for other parties. It is argued based on

this research results that both genders voted more for NDC in the 1996 general election against

NPP and other parties that took part in the election. The chi-square test showed there is no

significant association between gender of voters and choice of party in the 1996 election (Chi-

square = 10.752; df =2; p >0.05).


It is noted in figure 4.3 above that more than half (59.80%) of male respondents voted for NPP in

contrast to NDC (33.90%), and other parties (6.20%) in the 2000 elections. Similarly, more than

half (53.50%) of female participants voted for NPP against NDC (38.00%) and other parties

(8.50%). Thus, the findings suggest the NPP appealed more to both male and female voters in

the 2000 general elections, but no associations between gender and party choice. The chi-square

test showed there is no significant association between gender of voters and choice of party in

the 2000 election (Chi-square = 0.802; df =2; p>0.05).


From figure 4.4, more than half (55.90%) of male participants voted for NPP compared to

36.40% for NDC, and 7.60% for other parties. Likewise, more than half (54.80%) of female

participants voted for NPP against NDC (39.30%), and other parties (6.00%). It can be

concluded from this results that both genders voted more for NPP in the 2004 general election

compared to NDC and other political parties. The chi-square test showed no significant

association between gender of voters and choice of party in the 2004 election (Chi-square =

0.316; df =2; p >0.05).


Noted in figure 4.4 above, majority (47.60%) of male respondents voted for NPP compared to

NDC (46.20%), and other parties (6.30%). Likewise, more than half (56.10%) of female

participants voted for NPP against NDC (40.80%), and other parties (3.10%). From this results it

could be said that both genders voted more for NPP compared to NDC and other political parties

in the 2008 election. The chi-square test shows there is no significant association between gender

of voters and choice of party in the 2008 election (Chi-square = 2.434; df =2; p >0.05).

22


From Figure 4.4, majority (47.40%) of male participants voted for NPP followed by NDC

(43.50%) and other parties (9.10%). Similarly, majority of female study participants voted for

NPP against NDC (45.60%), and other parties (6.10%). Thus, both genders voted for NPP

against NDC and other political parties in the 2012 general elections. The chi-square test shows

there is no significant association between gender of voters and choice of party in the 2012

election (Chi-square = 0.803; df =2; p >0.05).

5. What is the perceived class distribution of votes for the two parties?

The second objective of the study was to assess respondents’ perception on class and party

choice - who they think would vote for which party in the last 20 years. This objective was

necessary to examine whether for the last 20 years, there has or has not been any change in the

way we perceive class-party association. Here, the prevailing assumption in Ghana is that

majority of low income people, and/or who lives in suburbs considered as lower class, or slams

are most likely to vote NDC, and those that are in higher class income brackets, and live in upper

class neighbourhoods would predominantly vote NPP. Hence the study sought to test this

assumption by ascertaining the various classes of voters, according to job category and broad

generation of class – rich and poor – and the party they are most likely to vote for. In this

categorization, upper income groupings includes lecturers, professors, journalists, lawyers,

university students, businessmen, banks/telco professionals and medical doctors. Lower income

groupings include: farmers, fisher folks, market women, teachers and nurses.

Other peculiar categories such as religion and geographic location (Muslims, Christians, Zongo)

were included in this section as they are usually discussed in relations to class in Ghana. It is

believed that poverty is prevalent in the Muslim and Zongo communities than there is in the

communities that are predominantly Christian. The results were presented using descriptive

statistics as shown in the Table 5.1 below. The electoral cycles were divided into two halves,

with 1992 to 1999 being the first, and 2000 to 2012 being the second. This is because the 2000

elections is always considered as the beginning of a new dawn in Ghana’s democracy, where for

the first time in the fourth republic one party handed over to another through the ballot box

(Gyima-Buadi, 2001).

The two tables below, Table 5.1 and 5.2 show the various classes of voters and the party they are

most likely to vote from 1992 t0 1999 and from 2000 till now, assuming only NPP and NDC

existed.

23

Tabe 5.1: Class of voters (in percentage %) and party likely to vot for from 1992- 1999 Class of voters NDC Gap NPP Total partisan vote Gap Cross party vote Not sure Missing Total %

Most rich people 13.3 24.5 37.8 51.1 21.6 29.5 12.1 7.4 100

Most poor people 21.8 4.7 26.5 48.3 17 31.3 12.4 8 100

Most farmers 20.1 7 27.1 47.2 13 34.2 10.3 0.3 100

Most fisher folks 21.5 1.7 19.8 41.3 1.2 40.1 11.2 7.4 100

Most lecturers 18.9 16.1 2.8 21.7 17.8 39.5 9.4 7.4 100

Most professors 12.7 18.6 31.3 44 3.6 40.4 8 7.7 100

Most journalists 18.9 3.5 22.4 41.3 0.3 41.6 9.1 8 100

Most lawyers 36.6 20.1 16.5 53.1 20.9 32.2 6.8 8 100

Most university/tertiary students 9.7 38.4 48.1 57.8 30.4 27.4 7.1 7.7 100

Most market women 51 41.3 9.7 60.7 34.7 26 5.3 8 100

Most business owners 21.2 1.8 23 44.2 5 39.2 8.3 8.3 100

Most banks/telecom professionals 20.9 5.3 15.6 36.5 9.2 45.7 9.7 8 100

Most teachers/nurses 18.3 5.6 23.9 42.2 0.3 42.5 0.7 7.7 100

Most medical doctors 17.4 10.3 27.7 45.1 4.1 41 6.2 7.7 100

Most muslims 21.5 2 19.5 41 1.2 39.8 11.8 7.4 100

Most zongo people 39.2 27.1 12.1 51.3 18.9 32.4 8.3 8 100

Most christians 11.5 14.2 25.7 37.2 4.7 41.9 13 8 100 Sample size (n) =339


Tabe 5.2: Class of voters (in percentage %) and party likely to vot for from 2000-2012Class of voters NDC Gap NPP Total partisan vote Gap Cross party vote Not sure Missing Total %

Most rich people 12.4 15 27.4 39.8 0.6 40.4 11.5 8.3 100

Most poor people 28 9.7 18.3 46.3 11.2 35.1 9.7 8.8 100

Most farmers 20.9 4.5 25.4 46.3 8.8 37.5 7.7 8.6 100

Most fisher folks 15 12.7 27.7 42.7 3.5 39.2 9.7 8.3 100

Most lecturers 8.3 22.4 30.7 39 4.4 43.4 9.4 8.3 100

Most professors 7.1 42.2 49.3 56.4 27.5 28.9 6.5 8.3 100

Most journalists 8.8 20.7 29.5 38.3 5.9 44.2 9.4 8 100

Most lawyers 4.4 46.4 50.4 54.8 25.9 28.9 8 8.3 100

Most university/tertiary students 38.9 23 15.9 54.8 24.4 30.4 6.5 8.3 100

Most market women 13.6 14.4 28 41.6 0.9 42.5 8 8 100

Most business owners 4.4 36 40.4 44.8 7 37.8 8.8 8.6 100

Most banks/telecom professionals 15.6 8.6 24.2 39.8 0.9 38.9 10 11.2 100

Most teachers/nurses 17.4 5 22.4 39.8 3.2 36.6 13 10.6 100

Most medical doctors 11.8 4.1 15.9 27.7 6.5 34.2 20.1 18 100

Most muslims 44.8 38 6.8 51.6 21.8 29.8 10.6 8 100

Most zongo people 39.8 33 6.8 46.6 10.3 36.3 9.4 7.7 100

Most christians 13.6 1.8 11.8 25.4 29.8 55.2 11.2 8.3 100 Sample size (n) =339


To satisfy this objective, participants were ask to indicate in their opinion, for which party would

most of these voter markets/categories vote, between NDC and NPP from 1992 to 1999, and

from 2000 till date.

From the results, as evidenced in the two tables above, from 1992 to 1999, there was a pervasive

view that rich people in society would vote almost three times more for NPP than they would for

NDC, with the statistics showing 13.3% for NDC, 37.8% and bipartisan votes being 29.5. The

voter share for NPP however was reduced by 10% and bipartisan votes increased to 40% and the

24

NDC votes stayed the same from 2000 till now. This could lead to the inference that the rich

people in society are becoming more centrist, but to the NPPs disadvantage.

In terms of lower class category, it is noted in the findings that there was no significant ship to

their persuasion in the last 20 years. Both partisan and bipartisan vote have remained almost the

same, with the only observable difference being a switched from NPP to NDC in terms of those

who would vote partisan. The bipartisanship vote only moved up 4% for the last 20 years.

Same could be said of farmers. The findings indicate very slight movement amongst this voter

category. whereas those who would vote NPP had reduced but slightly from 27.1 to 25.4, that of

the NDC had remained almost the same with bipartisanship shifting by 3% upwards. What is

interesting however, is the notion that NPP seem to be leading the NDC in this voter category.

Perhaps, the fall in place of the NPPs claim that the party's tradition is from predominantly

farming communities, and that does not make them elitist.

The findings suggest that bipartisan vote amongst fisher folks, just like farmers has remained the

same at almost 40%. Again, what is interesting is the NPPs lead over the NDC in this category

also. And quite revealing also is the increase of the NPP share of this voter category by almost

8% from their previous 19.8 when NDC was leading with 21.5%

In the direction of most lecturers and professors, there is a yawning gap of between the NDC and

NPP perceived association. The NDC is thought to have had the backing of the lecturers in the

early years of 1992 to 1999, by 18.9% to NPPs 2.8%. The reverse is the case now, and the

respondents interviewed are of the view that there is supported by lecturers by 30.7% against the

NDCs 8.3%. However, bipartisanship vote tops partisan votes in both eras, at 39.5% and 43.4%

in the first and second eras respectively.

With regards to professors, the first era statistics suggest a whopping 20% gap in favour of the

NPP, and bipartisan vote remaining high amongst this group. However, the data shows that

unlike the lecturers bipartisan vote has reduced and the NPP has increased its shares

tremendously against the NDC with the difference increasing to almost 40%.

Amongst journalist, bipartisan vote is thought to be high at 41.6%, as against 18.9% and 22.4%

for NDC and NPP respectively in the first era. In the second, from 2000 till now, both bipartisan

and NPP votes appreciated to the expense of the NDC. Bipartisan vote increased to 44.2%, the

NPP to 29.5% and NDC reduced to 8.8%.

The most lawyers’ category recorded NDC with 36.6% as against the NPPs 16.5% and perceived

bipartisan vote of 32.2%. This changed dramatically, with respondents suggesting that lawyers in

the second era would vote the NPP against the NDC almost 5:1, with bipartisan votes reducing to

29%

There is also a substantial shift in how university and other tertiary students would vote. The

NPP led the NDC in this category by 48% against the NDCs 9.7% at the early years, this pattern

has changed from 2000 till now, with NDC leading the NPP by 23% with bipartisanship moving

3 percentage point up to 30.4%.

25

There is also a substantial ship in patterns amongst market women. Respondents were of the

view that the market women have become very bipartisan, with almost 43% likely to vote both

parties, as against 26% in the early years when the NDC controlled this voter market with 51%

as against the NPPs 9.7%. From 2000 till now, the surveyed respondents think the NPP however

has the upper hand over the NDC with 28% and 13.6% respectively in terms of partisan votes.

NPPs dominant in the business owner category is still entrenched with a sharp rise to 40.4% as

against the NDCs 4.4% from previously perceived 23% for the NPP and 21.2% for the NDC.

Bipartisanship amongst this category reduced to 37.8% from the previous 39.2%.

There is a reduced bipartisan votes amongst banks and telecom professionals, from the previous

46% to 39% currently. With the partisan vote, the NDC and NPP swapped leadership position

with the NDC moving down by almost 5% from their previous 21% and the NPP moving up by

9% from 15.6%

There has been little movement within the teachers and nurses market amongst the two parties

but bipartisanship reduced somewhat by about 6% from the previous of 42.5%. In both eras, the

NPP has led its rival by just about 5% difference

Medical doctors are perceived to be predominantly bipartisan in both eras, despite the slight

decrease in recent times from 41% to 34.2%. Partisan votes amongst the two parties were

distributed as 17.4% for the NDC and 27.7 for the NPP in the early years, and 11.8% and 15.9%

for the NDC and NPP respectively for recent years.

Bipartisanship amongst Muslims has reduced drastically by almost 10% difference, from 39.8%

to the benefit of the NDC, which controls almost 45% from its previous 21.5% as against the

NPPs current standing of 6.8% down from 19.5%

Similar findings reflected in the Zongo category, where the gap between the NDC and NPP has

remained very wide, almost 40% for the NDC against the NPPs 6.8% currently. However

bipartisanship seems to have increased amongst this category by about 5%.

The Christian voter market is perceived as highly cross party, increasing from the previous

41.9% to 55.2%. Leadership in partisan votes amongst the two parties has been interchanged in

the two eras, with the NPP having lead the previous and NDC leading the current era.

26

6. Would change in party leadership affect party behaviour, brand image and voter choice?

The political marketing and branding literature have noted extensively the impact that leadership

change has on party brand image and voter choice (Less-Marshment, 2001; Needham, 2001 etc).

For example, Lees-Marshment notes in her work how the new labour project was very much

calved around Blairism, and so was the Clintonian democrats. Other case studies from Austria,

Austria etc have all recounted how party leadership change affect the brand, and voter choice. In

Ghana, though there is no study that has singled out the effect of party leadership change on

party behaviour, Mensah (2009) noted how the leadership of John Kufuour of the NPP party

changed party behaviour and attitudes towards new ways of doing things, and went on to win the

elections in 2000. Thus, in this study the attempt was made to explore whether changes in party

leadership could lead to change in party behaviour. In this direction, survey respondents were

asked to map out the characteristics of the party candidate that reflects on the party equally. In

other words respondents were asked to match the characteristics that the parties have in common

with the candidates under their leadership.

Here, the study findings reveal that survey respondents found significant commonality between

candidate traits and the parties under their leadership. This is presented in tables 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 and

figure 6.1 below

Table 6.1: Descriptive table on perceived candidate characteristics

John J. Rawlings John A. Kufour John E. Atta-Mills Nana A. Addo John Mahama

Bundle of characteristics freq % freq % freq % freq % freq %

Tribal, Sincere, Diplomatic, Elitist, Competent 38 11.2 27 8 19 5.6 34 10 41 4.1

Inexperience, All Tribes and religion, Modest, Corrupt, Diplomatic 30 8.8 41 12.1 30 8.8 54 15.9 33 9.7

Diplomatic; Corrupt; Modest; All Tribes and Religion; Competent 13 3.8 30 8.8 58 17.1 *63 18.6 *95 28

Modest; Diplomatic; Competent; Elitist; Corrupt *77 22.7 37 10.9 41 12.1 49 14.5 66 19.5

All Tribes and Religion; Accountable; Competent; Modest; Diplomatic 39 11.5 28 8.3 *91 26.8 52 15.3 59 17.4

Arrogant; Accountable; Diplomatic; All Tribes and Religion; Competent 26 7.7 25 7.4 5 1.5 9 9.7 12 3.5

Sincere; Accountable; Modest; Diplomatic; Competent 50 14.7 *87 25.7 44 13 18 5.3 10 2.9

Missing 66 19.5 64 18.9 51 15 60 17.7 50 14.7

Five characteristics that study respondents believe most describe the candidates

Candidates


Table 6.2 Descriptive table on perceived party characteristics

Bundle of characteristics freq % freq % freq % freq % freq %

Tribal, Sincere, Diplomatic, Elitist, Competent 43 12.7 31 9.1 19 5.6 19 5.6 33 9.7

Inexperience, All Tribes and religion, Modest, Corrupt, Diplomatic 27 8 49 14.5 *74 21.8 *87 25.7 *65 19.2

Diplomatic; Corrupt; Modest; All Tribes and Religion; Competent 26 7.7 *75 22.1 62 18.3 58 17.1 46 13.6

Modest; Diplomatic; Competent; Elitist; Corrupt 19 5.6 27 8 46 13.6 24 7.1 47 13.9

All Tribes and Religion; Accountable; Competent; Modest; Diplomatic 57 16.8 57 16.8 39 11.5 53 15.6 22 6.5

Arrogant; Accountable; Diplomatic; All Tribes and Religion; Competent *68 20.1 6 1.8 12 3.5 6 1.8 36 10.6

Sincere; Accountable; Modest; Diplomatic; Competent 50 14.7 57 16.8 44 13 45 13.3 47 13.9

Missing 49 14.5 37 10.9 43 12.7 47 13.9 43 12.7

National Democratic Congress (NDC) New Patriotic Party (NPP)

Under JJR Under JEAM Under JM Under JAK Under NAA

Five characteristics that study respondents believe most describe the political parties under the leadership of the candidates

Political Parties


27

Figure 6.1 Shared characteristics between candidates and parties Notes: CC – Common Characteristics; Disparate Characteristics


Table 6.3: Spearman Rank Correlation between perceived characteristics of candidates and

perceived characteristics of parties under their leadership

Measure 1 2 Mean SD

1. Characteristics of NDC under: JJR - 0.437** 4.9 5.7

2. Characteristics of Candidate: JJR 0.437** - 4.2 1.97

1. Characteristics of NPP under: JAK - 0.217** 3.7 1.88

2. Characteristics of Candidate: JAK 0.217** - 4.53 2.15

1. Characteristics of NDC under: JEAM - 0.395** 3.62 2.2

2. Characteristics of Candidate: JEAM 0.395** - 4.03 1.68

1. Characteristics of NPP under: NAA - 0.407** 3.86 2.01

2. Characteristics of Candidate: NAA 0.407** - 3.47 1.65

1. Characteristics of NDC under: JM - 0.298** 3.76 1.84

2. Characteristics of Candidate: JM 0.298** - 3.69 1.34

** Correlation is significant at 0.05 levels (2-tailed) Source: Field survey (2014)

From the descriptive tables 6.1 and 6.2 and figure 6.1 above, it is noted that survey respondents

found significant commonality in character between candidates and the parties under their

leadership. In some cases, for example candidates JEAM, NAA and JM, respondents indicated

four (4) out of five (5) characteristics as common between the candidates and their respective

parties. Similar finding is found in the correlation table 6.3, albeit moderate for candidates

28

JEAM, NAA and JM and weak in the case of JJR and JAK. It is thus possible to argue that the

findings are in support of existing literature that change in party leadership would results in

change in party behaviour, and voter choice as a result.

7. How have the voting patterns for these two parties changed, and what are the causes for

the change?

Based on the actual vote measurement (see tables 4.1 and 4.2 and figures 4.1 to 4.4 above), as

per responses given by the surveyed respondents in the study, significantly the findings suggest

that year 2000 elections was a watershed moment for both parties. The early years’ elections saw

a clear generational divide between the young and older voters preferring NDC and NPP

respectively until that elections when there was a seemingly implied consensus towards the NPP

in all ages, and gender groups. The NPP established dominance as a result, until 2008 when there

was an incredible support towards the NDC, especially amongst older voters of ages 62+ gaining

12.6% lead over the NPP.

Again the significant association of age and gender that characterized the early years of

electioneering had dissipated going forward, with again 2000 elections being the turning point.

Since then the study findings suggest no association between ages and gender. This means one

does not choose to vote a political party because of their age or gender, as evident in the early

years of 1992 and 1996. It thus safe to argue that when it comes to age and gender cohorts,

volatility has taking hold of Ghana's electoral market, where these cohorts can decide to choose

any of these parties when properly targeted.

Again, it was discovered that there is a significant swing in people's perception about who would

vote only NPP, only NDC or either of them at any point in time. Perceptions that certain class of

people would vote a certain party is changing dramatically, especially amongst voters considered

as economically upper class, with the shift predominantly towards the centre - cross party vote,

as opposed to partisanship. However it is also important to note that views on others are

entrenching, especially for professors on NPP. The study findings suggest that people perceive

lecturers as moving towards the centre, reducing the gap in partisanship versus cross party votes

of this cohorts from 17.8% to 4.4% between the years of 1992-1999 and 2000-2012 electoral

cycles.

On perceptions of lower income category and how they would vote, a significant swing towards

the centre was observed from the market women category, reducing partisanship vote of 60.7%

between 1992-1999 to 41.6% between 2000 to date, and increasing cross party vote from 26% in

1992-1999 electoral cycles to 42.5% in 2000-2012 electoral cycles.

8. Are NPP and NDC still perceived as predominantly classed based parties?

It is evident in the findings of this study conducted in seven (7) constituencies in the Greater

Accra region of Ghana that voters’ perceptions on the political brands of these parties are

changing. It is quite clear that given the right policy options voters would vote according to what

they think are of value in policy choices. It is thus the responsibility of the parties to respond to

29

the volatility in the Ghanaian electoral market by offering the right mix of policy options for

different cohorts of voters.

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