Time for the U.S. to Reskill? What the Survey of Adult Skills Says

1

ANDREAS SCHLEICHERSpecial advisor to the Secretary-General on Education Policy

Deputy Director for Education and Skills

Skilled for Life? Measuring the skills of adults

Washington, November 12Andreas Schleicher

2

Survey of Adult Skills Participating countries

2013

(**see notes A and B in the Reader’s Guide).

3

Survey of Adult Skills in brief

(**see notes A and B in the Reader’s Guide).

3

in literacy, numeracy and problem solving in technology-rich environments.

166 thousand adults…Representing 724 million 16-65 year-olds in 24 countries/economies

… took an internationally agreed assessment…

Also surveyed were generic skills such as collaborating with others and organising one’s time, and how adults use their skills

5

1968-1977 1978-1987 1998-2007 2008-20161988-1997

1972-1980 1981-1990 2001-2010 2011-20201991-2000

55-65 45-54 35-44 25-34 16-24

Age distribution of the Survey of Adult Skills

Age range:

University graduation year

High-School graduation year

6

SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS

Skills Transform Lives and Drive EconomiesWhat people know and what they can do with what they know has a major impact on their life chances

7

Increased likelihood of positive outcomes among adults with higher literacy skills

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5 Literacy

(scoring at Level 4/5 compared with those scoring at Level 1 or below)

Odds ratio

8

Inequality in the distribution of income and literacy skills

1.41.451.51.551.61.651.7

0.2

0.22

0.24

0.26

0.28

0.3

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.4

0.33593915

0.26078351

0.32350417

0.25612512

0.2478

0.3150587

0.25947413

0.295440.29327448

0.336604

0.32925796

0.3150.29374042

0.2501

0.3144635

0.25663323

0.31701137

0.259326

0.37823832

0.2591987

England/N. Ireland (UK)

Literacy skills inequality (9th/1st decile)

Income inequality (Gini coefficient)

Low income inequalityLow skills inequality

High income inequalityLow skills inequality

High income inequalityHigh skills inequality

Low income inequalityHigh skills inequality

Avera

ge

Average

9

SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS

The level and distribution of skills differs markedly across countriesMuch of the variation in skills proficiency is observed within countries, so most countries have significant shares of struggling adults

SpainItaly

United StatesFranceIreland

Northern Ireland (UK)Poland

England/N. Ireland (UK)England (UK)

KoreaCyprus**

CanadaAustraliaAverage

Russian Federation³Germany

EstoniaAustria

Czech RepublicSlovak Republic

DenmarkNorwaySweden

NetherlandsFlanders (Belgium)

FinlandJapan

240 250 260 270 280 290 300

25th

Mean and .95 confidence interval for

mean 75th 95th 5th

Score

Skills of adultsNumeracy

7 points are roughly equal to one year of education

ItalySpain

FranceIrelandPoland

Northern Ireland (UK)Cyprus**

AustriaUnited States

GermanyDenmark

England/N. Ireland (UK)Korea

England (UK)AverageCanada

Slovak RepublicCzech Republic

Russian Federation³Flanders (Belgium)

EstoniaNorwaySweden

AustraliaNetherlands

FinlandJapan

240 250 260 270 280 290 300

25th

Mean and .95 confidence interval for

mean 75th 95th 5th

Score

Skills of adultsLiteracy

7 points are roughly equal to one year of education

14

ItalySpain

FranceIrelandPolandAustria

United StatesGermanyDenmark

England/N. Ireland (UK)Korea

AverageCanada

Slovak RepublicCzech Republic

Russian Federation³Flanders (Belgium)

EstoniaNorwaySweden

AustraliaNetherlands

FinlandJapan

80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80

0.70.80.80.50.0

1.84.21.5

0.41.40.31.20.90.30.60.0

5.20.4

2.20.0

1.92.3

0.01.2

Level 2 Level 1 Below Level 1 Level 3 Level 4/5 No information

%

Adults at Level 4/5 can • Perform multiple-step operations to integrate, interpret, or synthesise information from complex or lengthy texts that involve conditional and/or competing information. • Make complex inferences and appropriately apply background knowledge as well as interpret or evaluate subtle truth claims or arguments.

Adults at Level 3 can • Understand and respond appropriately to dense or lengthy texts.• Understand text structures and rhetorical devices.• Identify, interpret, or evaluate one or more pieces of information and make appropriate inferences. • Perform multi-step operations and select relevant data from competing information in order to identify and formulate responses. •Technicians, Professionals

Adults at Level 2 can• Integrate two or more pieces of information based on criteria• Compare and contrast or reason about information and make low-level inferences. • Navigate digital texts to access and identify information from various parts of a document.•Shop assistants, machine operators

Adults at Level 1 can • Read relatively short digital or print continuous, non-continuous, or mixed texts to locate a single piece of information.• Complete simple forms, understand basic vocabulary, determine the meaning of sentences, and read continuous texts with a degree of fluency.

What adults can doLiteracy

15

220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320450

470

490

510

530

550

570

519.91

505.48

527.01

509.86513.03

514.58

548.36

503.79501.47

461.69

523.10

547.46

530.65

489.85

495.43

492.11

479.96

502.36

474.35

543.44

Mean numeracy proficiency in PISA and in the Survey of Adult Skills (20-22 year-olds)

Avera

ge a

t 2

0-2

2

OECD average for PISA 2006

PISA Score

Survey of Adult Skills score

+–

++

––

–+

Mean reading score in PISA 2006 and literacy score in the Survey of Adult Skills 2012

16

PolandIreland

Slovak RepublicEstonia

KoreaUnited States

AustriaCzech Republic

AverageFlanders (Belgium)

JapanEngland/N. Ireland (UK)

GermanyCanada

AustraliaDenmark

NorwayNetherlands

FinlandSweden

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Level 22

Level 32

Young adults (16-24 year-olds) All adults (16-65 year-olds)

Problem solving skills in a digital environment

%

17

Evolution of employment in occupational groups defined by problem-solving skillsPercentage change in the share of employment relative to 1998, by occupational groups defined by workers’ average level of proficiency in problem solving (based on 24 OECD countries with 1998 LFS data)

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

*-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Medium-low level of prob-lem-solving

Low level of problem-solving

Medium-high level of prob-lem-solving

%

18

SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS

Successful integration is not simply a matter of time. In some countries, the time elapsed since immigrants arrived appears to make little difference to their proficiency in literacy and numeracy, suggesting either that the incentives to learn the language of the receiving country are not strong or that policies that encourage learning the language of the receiving country are of limited effectiveness

Foreign-language immigrants with low levels of education tend to have low skills

Irelan

d

Slova

k Republic

Czech

Republic

Australi

a

Engla

nd/N. Ir

eland (U

K)Sp

ain

Estonia

Canad

aIta

ly

Austria

Averag

e

German

y

United St

ates

Flanders

(Belgi

um)

France

DenmarkKorea

Norway

Netherlands

Finlan

d

Sweden

Japan

Poland

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Native-born

Literacy proficiencyby immigration background

Irelan

d

Slova

k Republic

Czech

Republic

Australi

a

Engla

nd/N. Ir

eland (U

K)Sp

ain

Estonia

Canad

aIta

ly

Austria

Averag

e

German

y

United St

ates

Flanders

(Belgi

um)

France

DenmarkKorea

Norway

Netherlands

Finlan

d

Sweden

Japan

Poland

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Native-born Foreign-born - < 5 years

172

Literacy proficiencyby immigration background

Irelan

d

Slova

k Republic

Czech

Republic

Australi

a

Engla

nd/N. Ir

eland (U

K)Sp

ain

Estonia

Canad

aIta

ly

Austria

Averag

e

German

y

United St

ates

Flanders

(Belgi

um)

France

DenmarkKorea

Norway

Netherlands

Finlan

d

Sweden

Japan

Poland

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Native-born Foreign-born - < 5 yearsForeign-born - 5 years and more

172

Literacy proficiencyby immigration background

22

SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS

Some countries have made significant progress in improving skills proficiency

240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300Score

Literacy skills in younger and older generations

Avera

ge 1

6-2

4 y

ear-o

lds

KOREA

Germany

Norway

Avera

ge 5

5-6

5 y

ear-o

lds

Spain

Finland

France

US

UK

Adults at Level 4/5 in literacy

12.6 million16-24 year-olds scoring at Level

4/5

Estonia, 0.2%

Flanders (Belgium), 1%

Pola

nd ,

3%

Austr

alia,

3%

Germany, 4%

Ireland, 0.2%

Kore

a, 1

%

Net

herl

ands

. 2%

7.9 million55-65 year-olds scoring at Level 4/5

Denmark, 0.5%

Finla

nd, 1%

Those entering the job market Those nearing retirement

25

SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS

Formal education is the key to building foundation skills

… but more education does not automatically translate into better skills

26

Likelihood of lower literacy proficiencyby education and parental education

Unit

ed S

tate

s

Engla

nd/N. I

rela

nd (UK)

Canad

a

Spain

Irel

and

Ger

man

y

Slova

k Rep

ublic

Net

herla

nds

Flan

ders (B

elgiu

m)

Czech

Rep

ublic

Avera

ge

Austra

liaItal

y

Austria

Korea

Den

mar

k

Japan

Swed

en

Nor

way

Polan

d

Finla

nd

Cypru

s1

Esto

nia1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11 Respondent's education at least high school, neither parent attained high school

Respondent's education lower than high school, at least one parent with high school or higher

Neither respondent nor either parent attained high school

Odds ratio

Reference group: Both respondent’s and parents’ educational attainment is at least high school

27

Race/ethnicity of adults with low literacy skills in the US

Level 1

Below Level 1

0 20 40 60 80 100

Hispanic Black White Other

31

Mean literacy proficiency and distribution of literacy scores, by

educational attainment

Lower than high school

High school

College

100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400

United States

Score

25th percentile

Mean75th

percentile

Lower than high school

High school

College

100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400

Japan

Score

Qualifications don’t alwaysequal skills

Level 2Level 1 and below

32

SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS

Success is increasingly about building skills beyond formal education

33

15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

Literacy skills and age

Age

Score

Literacy unadjusted

Numeracy unadjusted

Numeracy adjusted

Literacy adjusted

35

SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS

Putting skills to effective useSkills will only translate into better economic and social outcomes if they are used effectively

36

Labour productivity and the use of reading skills at work

1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.33

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

3.89385903480046

3.94352167248753

3.83514196109219

3.39450839351136

3.97968165390196

3.25424296870549

3.87328217711172

4.021773869387254.21656219494637

3.81990771652034

3.72810016726723

3.39114704580865

4.09100566095659

4.4188406077966

3.26575941076705

3.49650756146648

3.8607297110406 3.94545778151438

4.09767235231478

3.85439389259152

Use of reading skills at work

(log

) Lab

ou

r p

rod

uct

ivit

y

Slope = 1.118 (0.407)R2 = 0.296

Adjusted predictionSlope = 1.643 (0.504)R2 = 0.371

Use of skills at work

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

Average

Japan

United States

Most frequent use = 4

Least frequent use = 0

Ind

ex o

f use

40

SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS

Equal skills don’t always imply equal opportunities

41

Gender gap in wages and in the use of problem-solving skills at work

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 300

5

10

15

20

25

Percentage difference in the use of problem-solving skills at work (men minus women)

Perc

enta

ge d

iffere

nce

betw

een m

en’s

and

wom

en’s

wages (

men m

inus w

om

en)

After accounting for occupations, industry and proficiency

42

In Sum• Weak skills more common than on average across countries –

36 million low-skilled adults in the US• Despite high levels of formal education

• Few signs of improvement

• Performance of initial schooling closely linked to adult skills

• Strong influence of socio-economic background

• Migration status and ethnicity remain important• One third of the low-skilled are immigrants• 35% of black and 43% of Hispanic adults have low literacy skills,

compared with 10% of whites, racial differences in skills remain even among adults with similar qualifications

• Strong links to wages and health

• 63% of low-skilled adults are in employment, more than in other countries

• Participation rates in adult training are higher in the US than in most countries at all skill levels

• But those who need training most get the least of it

43

SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS

Skills are everybody’s business

Lessons from

strong performers

Concerted action• to improve basic skills• to tackle inequities

affecting sub-populations with weak skills

• Accepting the relative decline in skills would mean accepting relative decline in the economic sphere, but also in other domains that rely on high levels of basic skills – arts, sciences and intellectual innovation .

Lessons from

strong performers

Strengthen quality of schooling• Investing in high quality

early childhood education and initial schooling, particularly for children from disadvantaged backgrounds

• Support targeted at disadvantage

• Successful education systems can tackle the majority of basic skills weaknesses by age 15.

Lessons from

strong performers

Ensure effective and accessible education opportunities for young adults… using strengths of

community college system to support and develop basic skills and offer career options.

• One third of low-skilled US adults under 35 – potential for greater lifetime impact

• Community colleges – an important route back to education, with room for improvement .

• .

Lessons from

strong performers

Link efforts to improve basic skills to employability… recognizing that good

jobs open up further learning options, while basic skills can often be more readily acquired in practical contexts

• Integrating basic skills development with career preparation – promising approach

• Both for high school students and adults .

Lessons from

strong performers

Adapt to diversity. Work across all levels of government and across the public and private sectors• Diversity among low-

skilled adults, multiple causes – no single solution

• Policies must be coherent across different areas

• Unmet interest and need: about 3 million low-skilled adults interested in adult education .

Lessons from

strong performers

Build awareness of the implications of weak basic skills among adults. Support action with evidence• Shared understanding of

the issues consensus for policies

• Raise awareness among the adults concerned and their immediate contacts

• Good data key to effective interventions .

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