Climate change and time traps … and what to do Disclaimer: not necessarily the views of the government
Climate change and time traps …and what to do
Disclaimer: not necessarily the views of the government
Time trap 1: environmental inertia
Modelled warmingIPCC emissions scenarios
Source: Hadley Centre
and by the way…
"Not only have we not made progress, we are actively moving in the wrong direction,“
UNEP executive director Achim Steiner
Time trap 2: infrastructure transition
Fossil fuels
Transition…?
Source: IAASA Global Energy Assessment 2012 – World Primary Energy
Oil
Coal
Gas
Transition…
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
World Coal ConsumptionM
TOE
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012
Everywhere else
Asia & Pacific
Transition… the last 30 years
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 – note includes ‘commercial energy’ only
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
NuclearRenewables
World Primary Energy Share by Fuel
… transition?
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
World total car registrations (m)
Source: US Department of Energy, Transportation Energy Data Book 2012 edition
Car use - driving infrastructure demand?
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Vehicles per '000 people United States
Brazil 2010
China 2010India 2010
W. Europe 2010
Source: US Department of Energy, Transportation Energy Data Book 2012 edition. Specific country data for 2010
With country data for 2010 superimposed
Time trap 3: innovation
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Toyota hybrid sales
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0
1,000,000.0
2,000,000.0
3,000,000.0
4,000,000.0
5,000,000.0
6,000,000.0
7,000,000.0
8,000,000.0
9,000,000.0
10,000,000.0
Toyota total sales - hybrid and non-hybrid
Time trap 4: changing human behaviour
Smoking prevalence All > age 16 (Britain)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Time trap 5: expectations and credibility
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
50
100
150
200
250
300
Shadow cost of carbon £/tCO2 EU ETS carbon price
Carbon price expectations
Carbon price floor
What do you believe?• UK will have 15% energy
consumption from renewables by 2020?
• UK will meet 4th carbon budget (1.95 bnTCO2 in 2023-27?)
• UK will reduce emissions by 80% by 2050 (cf 1990)?
• A post-Kyoto deal will be done by 2015 and enter force 2020?
• UK Carbon Price Floor will be £70/tCO2 in 2030?
• Global temperatures increases will be kept below 2 degrees?
What would you bet?
Time trap 6: future expectations
Estimating future emissions
Emissions?
GDP?
Economic structure?
Energy mix?
Infrastructure?
Population?
Land use?
Geography?
Trade?
GD
P p
er c
apit
a ($
US
)
CO2 emissions per capita (tonnes)Gapminder
GD
P p
er c
apit
a ($
US
)
CO2 emissions per capita (tonnes)
Luxembourg
Denmark
Germany
Austria
United Kingdom
EU-15
Belgium
Italy
Netherlands
Finland
France
Sweden
Ireland
Spain
Greece
Portugal
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
-28%
-21%
-21%
-13%
-13%
-8%
-8%
-7%
-6%
0%
0%
4%
13%
15%
25%
27%
EU-15 Kyoto burden sharing Target relative to base year
GD
P p
er c
apit
a ($
US
)
CO2 emissions per capita (tonnes)
19881988
19891990
19901991
19921992
19931994
19941995
19961996
19971998
19981999
20002000
20012002
20022003
20042004
20052006
20062007
20082008
20092010
20102011
20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pollution / environmentQ What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?(Unprompted - combined answers)
Most important issues facing Britain
Peak concern on climate
change
Exxon Valdez
Ozone hole
UK climate programme
(or GM?)
19881988
19891990
19901991
19921992
19931994
19941995
19961996
19971998
19981999
20002000
20012002
20022003
20042004
20052006
20062007
20082008
20092010
20102011
20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Economy
Most important issues facing Britain
Unemployment
Part 2: What to do about it?
What to do 1: just stop it!
Stop it! The 2oC commitment…
Developing countries peak in 2020 and fall at
8% per year after
Developed countries peak in 2010 and fall at
10% per year after
Anderson K , Bows A Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:20-44
CO2 scenarios for approximately 37% chance of not exceeding 2°C.
What to do 2: form clubs
20 countries/blocs - 80% emissions
Source: Garnaut Climate Change Review
Concentration in innovation investment
0
20
40
60
80
100%
J apan China France Korea Brazil
UnitedStates Germany
UnitedKingdom
IndiaCanada
Russia
Gross expenditure on public & private R&D , 2007Percentage share of global total
Source: David Victor, Global Warming Gridlock - citing UNESCO data
What to do 3: switch to policies & measures
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Create a carbon price 2010= 1.0
• Globally co-ordinated carbon tax• Nationally collected• Possible consumption basis• Border taxes for non-participants• Predictably rising• Very long term• No shocks
What to do 4: pricing not quantities
What to do 5: focus on specific problems• Nuclear fuel cycle management• LNG infrastructure for China• Forest and sink protection• Global sectoral agreements – automotive, aviation, steel• Carbon pricing with border tax adjustments• Grid infrastructure for desert solar concentrators• Product and building energy efficiency standards• Water trading and river basin management
• Etc etc…
What to do 6: focus on ‘no regrets’
10
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
En
erg
y d
en
sity
by
we
igh
t (w
att
ho
urs
/ k
g)
Energy density by volume (watt hours / litre)
10,000
1,000
100
Gaseous fuels
CNG
Hydrogen absorbing
alloy
Hydrogen
Liquid fuelsEthanol
Gasoline
Bio-dieselDiesel
What to do 7: innovation strategy
Batteries
Lithium-ionNickel metal
Lead
Source: Toyota
Energy storage density
What to do 8: emphasise adaptation
Misallocation: low carbon vs adaptation?
Source: Policy Exchange, Delivering 21st Infrastructure for Britain, 2009
What to do 9: the geoengineering hedge
What to do 10: future proofing
What to do? Ten thoughts…1. Stop it!2. Clubs3. Policies & measures4. Global carbon price5. Problem focus6. No-regrets7. Innovation8. Adaptation9. Geoengineering hedge10.Future proofing
Six time traps1. Environmental response2. Infrastructure3. Innovation4. Human behaviour5. Credible signals6. Economic expectations
Thank you@clive_bates