Tier 1 Water Budget · SW median monthly flow Reserve: GW – calculated % of GW discharge, SW lower decile of monthly flow Low

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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region

www.ctcswp.ca

Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario

Tier 1 Water BudgetCTC SPC Meeting # – Agenda Item # August 11, 2008Gayle SooChan, P.Geo.Director, Groundwater Resources, CLOCA


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Presentation Overview• Background

• CLOSPA Study Area & Source of Municipal Drinking Water Supplies

• Water Budget Questions & CLOSPA Water Budget Strategy

• Conceptualized flow setting in CLOSPA

• Tier 1 Objectives & Approach

• Tier 1 Water Budget revised results

• Peer Review Comments

• Next Steps & Timelines

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The questions to be answered: • Where is the water? Hydrologic components

• How does the water move? Determine the Flow paths

• Quantify the Water Budget components

• What and where are the stresses on water availability? (Demand, natural, climate)

• What are the trends? (increasing or declining)

• Tiered Approach• Southern Ontario: Minimum

Tier 1 (growth/consistency)

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CLOSPA Water Budget Strategy:Conceptual Water Budget

Acquire and synthesize data, identify/address key gaps (SWP)

Develop conceptual understanding (including preliminary calculations) (SWP)

Tier 1 Water Budget

Couple existing numerical models for spatial resolution, undertake refined calculations, stress assessment, check SPA borders - Tier 1 Analysis – Sub-watershed (SWP)

Future Water Budget Work

Establish watershed targets/conduct scenario testing (ORMCP/YPDT/C.A.)

Monitor to refine and validate conceptual/numerical model (SWP/ORMCP/C.A.)

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Predominantly groundwater recharge

Predominantly groundwater discharge

Conceptual Flow Model

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Tier 1

• Objectives:• Define the link between the shallow and deep flow systems• Refine quantification of Water Budget components (spatial

distribution – evapotranspiration, recharge) • Refine Supply and Demand by watershed (data/model)• Understand the inflow and cross boundary flow components (resolve

flow gauge disparity)• Determine Significant Recharge Areas• Perform stress assessment• Edge-match with adjoining SPA’s• Build cutting edge tools for other water management program

areas

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PRMS: USGS Recharge model● Integrates climate, land use and

surficial geology ● Outputs ET, RO and GWI on a daily

basis (20 year)

MODFLOW: USGS GW Flow Model● Outputs GW Discharge/ Water Table

Tier 1 work : Cutting Edge Coupled Models

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YPDT EAST GW MODFLOW MODELGrid:100mx100m

PRMS Coupled SW ModelGrid: 25mx25m

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Recharge (mm/yr)

SigSignificant Groundwater Recharge

Key PRMS Outputs

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Stream Flux - CLOCA

"02HC028"

MODFLOW Outputs

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Water Demand

Surface Water Takings

Groundwater Takings

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% Water Demand= Demand \ (Supply-Reserve)Demand: Estimated average annual & monthly consumptive demandSupply: GW- Average Annual Recharge + lateral inflow,

SW median monthly flowReserve: GW – calculated % of GW discharge,

SW lower decile of monthly flow

<20 % Low

20% - 50% Moderate

> 50%Significant

Maximum Monthly % Water Demand

Surface Water Quantity Stress Level Assignment

0-25%0-10%Low

>25%>10%Moderate

>50%>25%Significant

MonthlyMaximum

AverageAnnual

GroundwaterQuantity StressAssignment

All Scenarios Thresholds

Stress Assessment:

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Annual GW Stress Analysis(all flow rates in m3/s)

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Monthly Surface Water Stress Assessment(all flow rates in m3/s)

Surface Water Stress Assessment based on QP50 and QP90

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Peer Review Comments: on Draft Tier 1 (February 2008)

• Peer Review Team : Municipality, Papadoupolos & Associates, Dr. R. Gerber, TCC, LSGB, TRCA, MNR, MOE-CR, SPC - prelim

• In our opinion, this is an excellent report that provides a solid framework for those charged with managing water-resources in the CLOCA area.

• In our opinion, the analyses have been conducted to a high technical standard.

• Peer Reviewers main suggestions for revisions were associated with advanced but unique methodologies in determination of stress. The study team was directed to revise the document to ensure provincial consistency in results.

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Director’s Rules – Changes to Tier 1

• Reporting scale – The area for assessment should be responsibly chosen on to provide meaningful stress assessment results. Minimum quaternary scale.

• The province has recognized that the delineated High Volume Recharge Areas (HVRA's) generally overlay the areas of recharge that support the 'natural features' in the watershed. There is therefore no longer a requirement to define Significant Groundwater Recharge Areas (SGRA's) separately to High Volume Recharge Areas.

• Climate change. There is now a requirement to add some qualitative text about potential effects of climate change. No technical analyses required at Tier 1 level (at this time).

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TimelinesPast Work

Tier 1 initiated 2006 Tier 1 / Stress Assessment Draft Report – Internal Review/revisions: Oct07-Feb08Tier 1 Peer Review Team meeting: 28 Feb08 Comments received from Peer Review team

CurrentRevisions in progress (delay for Director’s rules and TOR development) Current target for revised report completion date: end of August 08

Next StepsDistribute to SPC: August 08 Obtain Peer Review sign-off : Oct 08Obtain SPC approval: Nov 08 END SWP WB work in CLOSPA

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Decision Sought

• THAT the CTC SPC approve at their November meeting the Tier 1 Water Budget Report as the input to the water budget section of the Assessment Report for CLOSPA

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Additional Information

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Water Demand Results

Total Water Demand Summary

Watershed NameTOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL

m3/sec m3/day m3/sec m3/day m3/sec m3/dayLynde Creek Watershed 0.0984 8,501.1 0.0997 8,617.5 0.04824 4,167.6 Pringle Creek Watershed 0.0043 367.6 0.0043 368.3 0.00000 - Corbett Creek Watershed 0.0001 9.5 0.0002 14.8 0.00000 - Goodman Creek Watershed 0.0009 75.2 0.0009 75.4 0.00135 116.6 Oshawa Creek Watershed 0.0297 2,565.1 0.0306 2,641.7 0.00687 593.4 Harmony Creek Watershed 0.0095 816.8 0.0099 858.1 0.00000 - Farewell Creek Watershed 0.0100 867.1 0.0105 908.6 0.00000 - Robinson Creek Watershed 0.0023 202.3 0.0024 203.5 0.00000 - Tooley Creek Watershed 0.0038 324.2 0.0039 337.4 0.00000 - Black Creek Watershed 0.0062 537.4 0.0065 558.0 0.00000 - Darlington Creek Watershed 0.0149 1,289.0 0.0154 1,328.7 0.00309 266.6 Bowmanville Creek Watershed 0.0239 2,064.7 0.0253 2,187.4 0.00154 133.3 Westside Creek Watershed 0.0015 125.7 0.0015 126.1 0.00000 - Soper Creek Watershed 0.0170 1,472.9 0.0176 1,524.3 0.01333 1,151.9 Bennett Creek Watershed 0.0018 153.3 0.0018 155.2 0.00000 - Lake Ontario Watersheds 0.0032 272.7 0.0032 277.6 0.61587 53,210.9

Totals: 0.2274 19,644.6 0.2336 20,182.6 0.69028 59,640.3

Current GW Demand Future GW Demand Current SW Demand

Summary of Permitted Groundwater UsageUsage Consumption Consumption

m^3/s m^3/dayConcrete Plant / Drinking 0.000187 16.193

Dewatering 0.011476 991.534Golf Course Irrigation 0.045569 3937.181

Maintenance 0.000024 2.069Other- Commercial 0.000188 16.214

Snowmaking 0.034730 3000.678Water Supply 0.000009 0.737

Summary of Permitted Surface Water UsageUsage Consumption Consumption

m^3/s m^3/dayField and Pasture Crops 0.003085 266.521

Fish Hatchery and Rearing 0.000766 66.204Fruit Orchards 0.001542 133.260

Golf Course Irrigation 0.023304 2013.497Industrial 0.051117 4416.541Irrigation 0.007536 651.133

Market Gardens 0.001735 149.918Municipal 0.562192 48573.370

Remediation 0.000964 83.288Snowmaking 0.032993 2850.625

Tender Fruit Irrigation 0.003085 266.521Water level control 0.001208 104.403

Wildlife Conservation 0.000602 51.972

Water Demand: PTTW

Permitted Takings by Watershed and Type

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Annual GW Stress Analysis – Table Results(all flow rates in m3/s)

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Moderate

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Moderate

Stress Level

2.850.02390.08160.91990.30500.6149Bowmanville Creek

3.760.00150.00130.04000.02200.0180Westside Creek

2.970.01700.04070.61520.20000.4152Soper Creek

3.820.00180.00180.04820.02100.0272Bennet Creek

1.790.00320.00860.18470.11000.0747Lake Catchments

16.970.01490.00430.09220.02200.0702Darlington Creek

3.440.00620.01060.19130.06700.1243Black Creek

6.300.00380.00280.06230.02000.0423Tooley Creek

6.890.00230.00040.03430.01500.0193Robinson Creek

4.000.01000.01680.26770.11000.1577Farewell Creek

3.950.00950.01750.25660.08100.1756Harmony Creek

4.120.02970.06500.78620.19700.5892Oshawa Creek

1.480.00090.00240.06120.01500.0462Goodman Creek

0.190.00010.00410.06330.01700.0463Corbett Creek

2.980.00430.01060.15350.04200.1115Pringle Creek

12.140.09840.06790.87850.20200.6765Lynde Creek

% Water DemandQDemandQReserveQSupplyQINQRechargeWatershed

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Monthly Groundwater Stress Assessment(all flow rates in m3/s) – Table Results

% Water Demand

2

4

3

4

3

24

3

6

7

4

4

5

1

0

3

11

Jul

2

4

3

4

3

24

3

6

7

4

4

5

1

0

3

11

Aug

2

4

3

4

3

24

3

6

7

4

4

5

1

0

3

10

Sep

2

4

3

4

3

24

3

6

7

4

4

5

1

0

3

10

Oct

2

4

3

4

3

24

3

6

7

4

4

4

1

0

3

15

Nov

1

4

3

4

3

4

3

6

7

3

3

3

1

0

3

15

Dec

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

StressLevel

333333Bowmanville Creek

444444Westside Creek

333333Soper Creek

444444Bennet Creek

222111Lake Catchments

242424444Darlington Creek

333333Black Creek

666666Tooley Creek

777777Robinson Creek

444333Farewell Creek

444333Harmony Creek

554333Oshawa Creek

111111Goodman Creek

000000Corbett Creek

333333Pringle Creek

11118151515Lynde Creek

JunMayAprMarFebJanWatershed

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Monthly Groundwater Stress Assessment(all flow rates in m3/s)

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Monthly Surface Water Stress Assessment(all flow rates in m3/s) Table Results

% Water Demand

19300

0

207

0

6

185

0

0

0

0

0

49

92

0

0

134

Jul

32505

0

286

0

5

514

0

0

0

0

0

58

135

0

0

89

Aug

4751

0

25

0

2

37

0

0

0

0

0

12

15

0

0

21

Sep

2296

0

3

0

1

16

0

0

0

0

0

4

7

0

0

9

Oct

815

0

1

0

0

7

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

8

Nov

851

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

16

Dec

NA

Low

Significant

Low

Low

Significant

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Significant

Significant

Low

Low

Significant

StressLevel

311000Bowmanville Creek

000000Westside Creek

58183000Soper Creek

000000Bennet Creek

636721591019669723881Lake Catchments

57189000Darlington Creek

000000Black Creek

000000Tooley Creek

000000Robinson Creek

000000Farewell Creek

000000Harmony Creek

1552000Oshawa Creek

35126400Goodman Creek

000000Corbett Creek

000000Pringle Creek

29102131819Lynde Creek

JunMayAprMarFebJan

Watershed

Tier 1 Water Budget · SW median monthly flow Reserve: GW – calculated % of GW discharge, SW lower decile of monthly flow Low

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