Tier 1 Concept Paper, submitted to the United …Nevado Coropuna using instrumental records and down-scaled climate models. Use isotopic and element analysis to quaTask 3C: ntify contributions

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Tier 1 Concept Paper, submitted to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Mission in Peru, in response to the Annual Program Statement (APS) Number APS-527-13-000002 Climate Change Adaptation Program (GPAP)

1. BASIC INFORMATION: 1.1. Title: Changing volcano-cryosphere systems in Arequipa, Perú, and implications

for communities, mountain ecosystems, and water resources management 1.2. Name and address for the lead organization: Jeffrey Kargel, Dept. of Hydrology & Water

Resources, Harshbarger Building, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85742, USA. 1.3. Type of organization (i.e., for-profit, non-profit, university, etc.). University 1.4. Contact point (lead contact name, telephone, email). Dr. Jeffrey S. Kargel, 520-780-7759,

[email protected] 1.5. Names of all organizations that are part of the concept, key personnel, and expertise: (1) Jeffrey S. Kargel (glacier remote sensing and alpine hazards) and Gregory J. Leonard (GIS and

glacier remote sensing), Department of Hydrology and Water Resources; Roberto Furfaro (artificial intelligence approaches to multispectral image landcover classification), Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Arizona (Tucson, Arizona); Zack Guido (climate modeling and isotopic/geochemical approaches to surface and groundwater modeling), CLIMAS, School of Natural Resources and the Environment.

(2) Karen Price Rios and Segundo Dávila (Responsable del Programa de Desarrollo Económico y Cambio Climatico), CARE-Perú.

(3) Felio Calderon (Coordinador de Proyectos) AEDES. Local operators; interface with National Water Authority, Ministry of Environment and Risk Prevention Center, and primary interface with communities and the other project partners).

(4) Alejo Cochachin Rapre, Unidad de Glaciología y Recursos Hídricos, Autoridad Nacional del Agua (5) Umesh Haritashya (glacier remote sensing and glacier/hydrologic modeling), Department of

Geology, University of Dayton (Ohio). (6) Christian Huggel (climate impacts, risks and adaptation in high mountains, land surface process

modeling), Dept. of Geography, University of Zurich (Switzerland). (7) Stephan Harrison (geomorphology of glacial/paraglacial systems), Department of Geography,

University of Exeter (UK)

2. TECHNICAL INFORMATION

2.1. Description of the proposed project: Integration of glaciology (remote-sensing, in-situ studies, and modeling), natural hazards, ecosystem, and social/cultural aspects. The focus will be on Arequipa’s glaciers, glacier-volcano interactions and associated hazards (especially lahars, debris flows, and ice avalanches), permafrost, páramos and other high-mountain ecosystems, moraines, glacier meltwater streams, people living downstream and affected by fluctuations of meltwater stream flow, and infrastructure situated possibly precariously downstream. Stakehold-ers include foremost the mountain communities; agricultural interests (especially in the mountain communities, but also farther downstream), other high-mountain land users and rural residents (e.g., shepherds), possible hydroelectric power interests, flood control and water managers, civil defense/decision support authorities, universities, possibly local primary and secondary schools.

2.1.1. Basic and applied research and education themes: 2.1.1.1. Recent (satellite era since 1970s, back to Little Ice Age ca. 1550-1850) glacier dyna-

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mics related to climate change over that period and just prior (include response times). 2.1.1.2. Statistical downscaled glacier responses to climate change scenarios (21st century).

2.1.1.3. Development of moraines and weathered/hydrothermally altered volcanic rocks from emplacement to stabilization or collapse, creep, other paraglacial processes.

2.1.1.4. Development of vegetational/biological communities on near-glacier terrains from lichens and mosses to fully developed páramos. 2.1.1.5. Changing glaciers and associated deposits related to current/future hazards posed to

people/infrastructure and other impacts on people (e.g., tourism, mountaineering). 2.1.1.6. Changing glaciers related to changing surface water, alluvial stream flow, aquifer water, and hydropower potential.

2.1.1.7. Public information: local residents in areas downstream, local municipal governments and general Puruvian public-- glaciers and glacier landscapes are important natural resour-

ces (i.e., tourism, water, wildlife habitat and ecosystem services, etc.) and they are changing; in some cases, these changes create increased or new risks due to natural hazards, and people need to be aware of the ongoing shifts and those likely in their lifetimes (emphasize last 30 years to next 30 years, but also out to year 2100).

2.1.1.8. Involvement in decision support (interaction with civil authorities on hazard mitigation and disaster response planning), and response to disasters (if any). 2.1.1.9. Capacity building (in Perú): remote sensing and GIS methods, glacier meltwater stream monitoring, mass movement detection and assessment (including local persons’ involvement). 2.1.1.10. Coropuna (Quechua: “Shrine on the plateau”; 6,425 m) in traditional culture and conservation: one of Perú’s most sacred sites, and a unique natural biodiversity hotspot.

2.1.2. Task organization (keyed to themes listed above): 2.1.2.1. Task 1: Glacier and paraglacial dynamics via remote sensing and field validation (themes 2.1.1.1 and 2.1.1.2). Task 1A: Satellite image time series; image differencing, ASTER, WorldView, MODIS. Task 1B: Mapping of glaciers, supraglacial debris, and other poorly consolidated or

unstable rock and ice masses. Task 1C: Assess glacier flow speeds to map active vs. stagnant or slowing/accelerating

ice domains and to assess potential for meltwater storage and sudden release. Task 1D: Assessment of mass balance from ASTER DEM differencing (integrated

over the massif). Task 1E: Assess seasonal variation in fresh snow on glaciers and snowline elevation

(MODIS 500 m, verified via ASTER) (integrated over entire massif, seasonally resolved—examine interannual variability/trends).

Task 1F: Field validation: mass balance, other glacier dynamics (Coropuna) 2.1.2.2. Task 2: Studies of the physical/biological processes affecting near-glacier landforms/ terrains during/following deglaciation (themes 2.1.1.3 and 2.1.1.4). Task 2A: Subpixel satellite image-based vegetation mapping of partially vegetated terrain

element, such as moraines and other landforms, and páramo communities. Task 2B: Satellite image-based mapping of moraines, debris flows, rock glaciers, stone

stripes, drained lakebeds and páramos, and other terrain elements. Task 2C: Field assessment of moraines and debris flows, vegetation states of surfaces

(including páramos), and sampling for age determination of deposits. Task 2D: Lab-based measurement of exposure ages of moraines and debris flows Task 2E: Map vegetation indices, major species; assess páramo resilience, migration. Task 2E: Interpret development of moraines, other glacial/paraglacial landforms.

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2.1.2.3. Task 3: Applied science of deglaciation in Arequipa, past and future (themes 2.1.1.5 and 2.1.1.6). Task 3A: Down-scaled statistical local climate models; compare local vs regional vs

global model output and what resolution means for modeled glacier stability. Task 3B: Develop climate time series and project future (30-100 years) climate shifts at

Nevado Coropuna using instrumental records and down-scaled climate models. Task 3C: Use isotopic and element analysis to quantify contributions of glacier meltwater, Snowmelt, and rain to páramos (seasonally resolved—sampling help from locals). Task 3D: Updated risk evaluation in glacierized watersheds of Arequipa to formulate

enhanced risk management strategy (present, future risks). Include effects of climate change on ice burdens of volcanoes, effects of debuttressing of moraines and weathered or hydrothermally altered rocks, effects of demographic shifts. Include history of past mass movements (historic or from recent geologic record).

Task 3E: Updated future water resource evaluation in glacierized watersheds of Arequipa (present and future water resources)—snow and glacier melt, precipitation, infil-

tration, spring emission, and runoff, considering climate change and glacier res- ponses). Include guidance on options to respond to changes in water supply by conservation, restriction of development, reservoir construction, or changes in livelihood involving water-intensive economic activities.

Task 3F: Field and hydrologic stream gage validation of runoff model 2.1.2.4. Task 4: Public outreach and education (themes 2.1.1.7, 2.1.1.8, 2.1.1.9, and 2.1.1.10). Task 4A: Public townhall meetings in local communities—meet and greet; explanation of

the science being done and results, need for local peoples’ involvement; listen to public concerns and ideas, and integrate local peoples’ (especially indigenous peoples’) ideas into our research objectives and methodologies—we will listen to the people, respond, and adapt our project as needed. These townhalls will be 2- way learning experiences. Interact with local and national (Perú) media.

Task 4B: Capacity building and cross-training through hands-on technology and cryo- sphere science classes (virtual and face-to-face) for students and technical experts.

(i) GIS and remote sensing. (ii) Field glaciology, especially mass balance measurement. (iii) Model and interpret data relevant to glacier and volcano-ice hazards. (iv) Decision making based on complex suite of observations/needs

Task 4C: Build local climate-change adaptive capacities in mountain communities developed through identification of the underlying causes of vulnerability.

Task 4D: Research team will learn from local people about Coropuna as a traditional sa- cred site; from ecologists about Coropuna and other peaks as biodiversity hotspots.

2.2. Description of proposed landscapes/watersheds where the project will be implemented. 2.2.1. General region of interest: Arequipa province, Perú (see Fig. 1), including these cryosphere areas: icecap of Coropuna volcano, rock glaciers and small glaciers or perennial snowfields of Nevado Solimana (6093 m), Nevado Hualca Hualca, and other localities. The provinces of Castilla, La Union and Condesuyos, Arequipa, have a population of 50,000, distributed in rural population centers primarily in poverty conditions around Coropuna. In the Coropuna glaciers are born several major rivers in the region, which supply water to the local people and to the great valleys for export agriculture. Arequipa is Perú’s second most important region economically after Lima, contributes about 5.6% of GDP. One of its main activities is agriculture. Recent changes in temperature have caused large problems in water supply, making it difficult to grow crops and produce livestock, which are the main economic activities of the local rural population. As an area of great aridity (the

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north end of the Atacama Desert), the glacier mass of Coropuna is an important water reserve. Wea-ther fluctuations affect the South American camelid livestock; sudden temperature changes, frost and hail destroy grasslands and wetlands, and reduce production of camelid fiber. Many wetlands, ponds, streams and rivers have declined recently, generating negative impacts throughout the watershed.

The topography and dip of rock outcrops combined with the absence of forest cause a low natural protection against possible flood disasters or dangerous mass movements caused by either precipitation runoff or the interaction of glaciers on a dormant but geothermally active volcano. Much of the local population is vulnerable to natural disasters influenced by climate change, not only for the negative effects on their income and health, but in the safety of their lives. The Coropuna area is also of interest to commercial interests, including for its geothermal potential; for example, EMX Geothermal Peru last year gained approval for geothermal exploration near Coropuna (http://renewables.seenews.com/news/emx-geothermal-peru-gets-nod-to-explore-in-arequipa-355424).

2.2.2. Some details of the Coropuna ice cap and drainages. Figure 1 highlights glacier extents in

2003 and 1955, clearly illustrating glacier recession of about 1-2 km around the perimeter of the icecap and outlet glaciers. Table 1 further records the history of glacier recession. The distribu- tion of Holocene and older moraines (not highlighted in the figure) shows that ~12,000 years ago there were much greater extents than during 1955. As the Annex indicates, the glacial troughs between moraine left by those ancient glaciers now host, in some cases, high-altitude páramos, which are partly natural and partly human modified. The ancient moraines, if they can be age-dated accurately, combined with historic and satellite observations and available instrumental weather observations, contain an untapped, needed record of glacier sensitivity to climate change. We have available many more satellite images, sufficient to capture interannual variability glacier extent, and thus able to help resolve the in different responses due to long-term secular climate change vs. decadal variability (e.g., El Niño/La Niña oscillation). We also have rich

sources of topographic data whereby we can assess glacier mass balance.

Figure 1. Nevado Coropuna glacial cover between 1955 (black outline) and 2003 (yellow outline). This is Figure 26.7 in Albert et al. (2014). Landsat 5 TM base image (Sep. 4, 2003).

2.2.3. Previous work on Nevado Coropuna and other glacier areas of Arequipa There is wide agreement among scientists that climate change is occurring and is having impacts on glaciers globally (Kargel et al., 2014—book reference in Fig. 1 caption), and this consensus also exists for Perú (Albert et al. 2014-chapter reference in Fig. 1 caption). There are many other mani-festations of climate change related to glaciers, besides causing their shrinkage. These include de-stabilization of mountain deposits and slopes, thus causing increased landsliding and rockfalls,

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(Huggel et al. 2012), ice avalanches, debris flows, and glacier lake outburst floods (Kargel et al. 2011). Racoviteanu et al. (2007), Oset (2012), and Albert et al. (2014) have provided remote sensing analysis of the ice on Coropuna; the universal finding is that glaciers are rapidly shrinking there.

2.3. Indication of expected results and illustrative indicators to measure impact: 2.3.1. Complete time-resolved (dynamic) glacier and rock glacier inventory of Arequipa province

(to be part of the GLIMS glacier inventory, www.glims.org, in cooperation with Unit Glacio-logy and Water Resources of the National Water Authority. Impact indicator: Number of gla-ciers in the inventory and percentage completion of the province’s inventory. Number of gla-ciers having multitemporal data from the satellite record. Number of glaciers having moraine-based multitemporal data from the geomorphological record,  information that reinforces and adds to the national inventory of glaciers.

2.3.2. Increase the water security for the different water uses within glacier-fed watersheds. Impact indicator: Number of communities (e.g., Pampacolca, Annex Fig B) and drainages

having a water security report delivered to the National Water Authority. Number of commu-nities who have provided feedback to indicate they understand the report and use it to make decisions on water use. Report to National Water Authority giving updated water demand by economic sector will be developed and elaborated, to optimize the water coverage according to priorities/criteria discussed with authorities and stakeholders.

2.3.3. Increase physical security of communities and upland rural developments within glacier-fed areas of Arequipa (province). Impact indicator: Number of models (climatological, hydrologi-cal, glacier dynamical, or integrated; past and future changes; models of hazard/threat), or de-tailed case studies. Number of reports provided to national authorities. Number of reports having feedback from local residents (general population and authorities) to indicate they understand the observations and models and consider them useful, and feedback to inform the research team about ancient customs and modern local norms. This involves capacity building and effective communication of technical results. Capacity building is needed to help stake-holders understand the potential risks, and to communicate the results such that people can comprehend them and help them understand the steps needed for effective risk management. Tapping local knowledge of issues is also crucial.

2.3.4. Increase local villager and urban dwellers’ understanding of how science and technolo- gy link to public well being, increase involvement of the local public in the collection of scientific data. Improve research team’s understanding of traditional adaptation approaches and how we can better integrate traditional and possible modern approaches. Impact indica-tor: Number of collaborating local residents. Number of villages visited and having engaged in significant discussions. Number of town-hall-type meetings.

2.3.5. Increase training of Peru students and technical experts in use of remote sensing data, field research, and modeling of hydrological problems of interest. Impact indicator: Number of students and technical experts who have had some training. Number of hours of training delivered. Number of person-hours of instruction received. Number of abstracts written, with some student participation as authors, for conferences.

2.3.6. Peer-reviewed papers and conference presentations on glacier mass balance and other dynamic changes, Holocene-to-satellite-era records of cryosphere changes, glacier- and volcano-ice hazards in Arequipa province, and ecosystem properties (including natural attributes, climate-change-impacted properties, and human-impacted attributes). Impact indicator: Number of papers and scientific conference abstracts written by the team.

2.4. Sustainability; beneficiaries; inclusiveness of gender and indigenous groups. Local mountain communities— ~50,000 inhabitants of the area, mainly indigenous—will be the greatest beneficiaries of this research and outreach. Most benefiting of all would be shepherds and ranchers,

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mountaineering guides, those employed in the tourism/mountaineering industry. Other stakeholders may include geothermal and hydropower energy companies, biological and land conservationists, national and regional water authorities, universities (due to capacity building). Our project includes a female task leader at CARE-Perú, and our capacity building will no doubt identify female and indi-genous students. We will also seek to train local people living near the glacier-fed streams to collect water samples and make observations of active mountain land surface and hydrological processes.

2.5. Summary of prior performance related to this project: Our group has a strong publications record related to remote sensing of glacier dynamics and high mountain hazards. Huggel and Kargel are vice-chairs of Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountain Areas (http://www.mn.uio.no/geo/english/research/groups/remotesensing/projects/gaphaz/), an IACS-supported working group. Kargel is the PI of GLIMS, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (www.glims.org). Kargel and Leonard are currently funded by USAID (through NASA) for the SERVIR Applied Sceinces team, where we have a glacier hazards-oriented project in Nepal, and last year we completed a small grants (Climber-Scientist program) project in Nepal.

2.6. Supporting Information: 2.4.1. Proposed duration of Activity: 24 months 2.4.2. Proposed estimated cost: $999,000 total over 2 years. Breakdown of costs = $519,000 year 1, $480,000 year 2, roughly itemized as follows for each year of 2 years (same each year, except overhead charged on subcontracts is reduced in the second year): -- Perú institutional partner, CARE: salaries, equipment, logistics, and their overhead: $150,000 -- Perú institutional partner, UGRH: equipment, logistics, and their overhead: $15,000. -- University of Dayton: summer salary (Umesh Haritashya) + benefits + student + their overhead = $30,000. -- Christian Huggel/U Zurich (logistical support for conference and field travel), $8,000 -- Stephan Harrison/U Exeter (logistical support for conference and field travel): $8,000 -- U of Arizona: Kargel salary ($38,000), Leonard salary ($23,000), Guido salary ($18,000), Furfaro salary ($2,000), Furfaro student ($12,000), benefits ($25,000), Fieldwork ($30,000), lab expenses (especially moraine dating and isotopic analysis $14,000), conference travel $8,000, travel for annual reporting at USAID HQ ($2,000), overhead on UA direct costs ($89,000), overhead on subcontracts ($47,000 year 1, $8,000 year 2). Total UA budget excluding subcontracts: $308,000 (year 1), $269,000 year 2). Total subcontracts: $211,000 each year. Total budget: $519,000 year 1, $480,000 year 2 (the difference is in overhead).

3.0. References: Albert, T., A. Klein, J.L. Kincaid, C. Huggel, A. Racoviteanu, Y. Arnaud, W. Silverio, and J. Luis Ceballos, 2014, Chapter 26,

Remote sensing of rapidly diminishing tropical glaciers in the northern Andes, in Kargel, J.S., G.J. Leonard et al. (Eds.), Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Springer-Praxis, pp 609-638 (in press).

Huggel, C., J.J. Clague, and O. Korup, 2012, Is climate change responsible for changing landslide activity in high mountains? Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 37, 77-91. Cited by 23.

Kargel, J.S., M. J. Abrams, M.P. Bishop, A. Bush, G. Hamilton, H. Jiskoot, A. Kääb, H.H. Kieffer, E.M. Lee, F. Paul, F. Rau, B. Raup, J.F. Shroder, D.L. Soltesz, L. Stearns, and R. Wessels, 2005. Multispectral Imaging Contributions to Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Remote Sensing of Environment 99, 187-219. Cited by 185.

Kargel, J., R. Furfaro, G. Kaser, G. Leonard, W. Fink, C. Huggel, A. Kääb, B. Raup, J. Reynolds, D. Wolfe, and M. Zapata, 2011, ASTER Imaging and Analysis of Glacier Hazards, Chapter 15 in Land Remote Sensing and Global Environmental Change: NASA's Earth Observing System and the Science of Terra and Aqua, B. Ramachandran, Christopher O. Justice, and M.J. Abrams (Eds.), pp 325-373, Springer, New York.

Kargel, J.S., G.J. Leonard et al. (Eds.), 2014, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Springer-Praxis, 890 pp (in press). Racoviteanu, A.E., W. Manley, Y.Arnaud, and M.W. Williams. 2007. Evaluating digital elevation models for glaciologic

applications: An example from Nevado Coropuna, Peruvian Andes. Global and Planetary Change 59(1–4): 110–25. Raup, R., A. Kääb, J.S. Kargel, M.P. Bishop, G. Hamilton, E. Lee, F. Paul, F. Rau, D. Soltesz, S.J.S. Khalsa, M. Beedle and C. Helm,

2007, Remote sensing and GIS technology in the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) Project, Computers and Geoscience, doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2006.05.015. Cited by 135.

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Annex (page 1): overview and details of Coropuna: Location, relations of glaciers and the volcano to surrounding terrain, hazards, and people

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Annex, page 2