THREE-GENERATION MODELS FOR THE TRANSMISSION OF CREDENTIALS IN THE NETHERLANDS, 1940-1984 WOUT ULTEE MAARTEN WOLBERS JOCHEM TOLSMA RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN,

THREE-GENERATION MODELS FOR

THE TRANSMISSION OF CREDENTIALS IN THE NETHERLANDS, 1940-1984

WOUT ULTEE

MAARTEN WOLBERS

JOCHEM TOLSMA

RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN, THE NETHERLANDS

PRESENTATION AT THE RC28 SPRING MEETING AT

THE CHINESE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG

MAY 10-12, 2012

FIRSTGENERATION

SECOND GENERATION

THIRD GENERATION

1946 - ?? 1976

1907 - 1979 1910 - 1983

1937

1862 – 1950 1947

1880 - 1960 1955

1980: GOLDTHORPE

CLASS STRUCTURE AND SOCIAL MOBILITY IN

BRITAIN

1980: COLLINS

THE CREDENTIAL SOCIETY

1979: BOURDIEU

LA DISTINCTION

GOIN’ BACK QUESTION:

IS BRITAIN STILL A CLASS SOCIETY?

WHAT’S IT GONNA BE QUESTION:

WILL CREDENTIALS BECOME MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT IN TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY

DEVELOPED SOCIETIES LIKE THE USA?

SHIFTING MECHANISMS QUESTION:

LESS REPRODUCTION OF INEQUALITY BY THE TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL RESOURCES?

MORE REPRODUCTION OF INEQUALITY THROUGH THE TRANSMISSION OF CULTURAL RESOURCES?

AND MORE RECONSTITUTION OF INEQUALITY THROUGH AN INCREASE IN EDUCATIONAL

HOMOGAMY?

IF TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY DEVELOPED SOCIETIES,

AS INDICATED BY FATHER-SON INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY,

ARE LESS AND LESS CLASS SOCIETIES

AND MORE AND MORE CREDENTIAL SOCIETIES

THEN

THE QUESTION OF CREDENTIAL MOBILITY GAINS THE UPPERHAND OVER THE

QUESTION OF CLASS MOBILITY

BREAKING DOWN THE QUESTION OF INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY

INTO THE QUESTION OF THE EFFECT OF CLASS ORIGINGS ON EDUCATION

AND THE QUESTION OF THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION ON CLASS DESTINATION

DOES NOT GO FAR ENOUGH:

INTERGENERATIONAL CREDENTIAL MOBILITY IS INTERESTING IN ITSELF

MULTIVARIATE MODELS HIGHLIGHT DIRECT (NET) EFFECTS, WHEREAS TOTAL EFFECTS ARE MORE

IMPORTANT

AND SINCE MODELS OFTEN ARE NOT RECURSIVE, INDIRECT EFFECTS REMAIN UNDERSTUDIED

THE TWO SMALLER QUESTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT:

WHEREAS THE QUESTION OF SOCIAL ORIGIN AND EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT

IS ABOUT FAMILIES AND STATES

THE QUESTION ABOUT EDUCATION AND DESTINATION

IS ABOUT THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE

AND ABOUT LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGICALLY DRIVEN CHANGES IN OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURES

BY DONATING AND BEQUESTING WEALTH TO THEIR CHILDREN, PARENTS ONCE REPRODUCED CLASS INEQUALITY

BY SPENDING TIME AND DOING THINGS WITH THEIR CHILDREN, PARENTS NOWADAYS REPRODUCE CREDENTIAL INEQUALITY

SINCE PARENTS NOWADAYS LIVE LONGER, THE TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL RESOURCES IS

DELAYED

WHEREAS MORE CULTURAL RESOURCES ARE BEING TRANSMITTED

OUR OWN HYPOTHESIS:

THE INCREASE IN LONGEVITY IS SO STRONG

THAT NOT ONLY THE LIFE SPAN OF PARENTS AND CHILDREN OVERLAP MORE

THE LIFE SPAN OF THESE CHILDREN AND THE LIFE SPAN OF THEIR GRANDPARENTS

ALSO OVERLAP MORE

IN CONTEMPORARY SOCIETIES THERE WILL BE A STRONGER DIRECT EFFECT OF THE EDUCATION OF GRANDPARENTS (FIRST

GENERATION) ON EDUCATION IN THE THIRD GENERATION (CHILDREN)

FOR CHILDREN TO BE BORN, A MOTHER AND A FATHER ARE NECESSARY

THEREFORE INTERGENERATIONAL QUESTIONS AS FATHER-SON QUESTIONS

MAY BE OFF THE MARK

CREDENTIALS IN THE THIRD GENERATION DEPEND UPON CREDENTIALS OF MOTHERS

AND FATHERS IN THE SECOND GENERATION

THE HIGHER THE CREDENTIALS OF A SECOND GENERATION HUSBAND, THE

HIGHER THE CREDENTIALS OF HIS WIFE

NET OF THIS, THE CREDENTIALS OF HIS WIFE ALSO MAY BE HIGHER IF HIS FATHER

(FIRST GENERATION) HAS HIGHER CREDENTIALS TOO

FIRST

SECOND

THIRD

SPOUSE SECOND

???

???

SO, THE TOTAL EFFECT OF CREDENTIALS IN THE FIRST

GENERATION ON THE CREDENTIALS OF THE THIRD GENERATION MAY

CONSIST OF

1) A DIRECT EFFECT PLUS

2) AN INDIRECT EFFECT BY WAY OF THE SECOND GENERATION PLUS

3) AN INDIRECT EFFECT BY WAY OF THE SECOND GENERATION SPOUSE

IF NO DIRECT EFFECT OF THE FIRST ON THE THIRD GENERATION IS

FOUND,

THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE IS NO TOTAL EFFECT OF THE FIRST

ON THE THIRD GENERATION

THE SECOND ??? IS A !!!FOR THE NETHERLANDS WE HAVE INDEED

FOUND THAT A MAN (WOMAN) HAS A SPOUSE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF

EDUCATION

IF THAT PERSON HAS A HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION

AND, INDEPENDENT OF THIS, IF THE FATHER OF THIS PERSON HAS A HIGHER

LEVEL OF EDUCATION

SEE DE GRAAF, SMEENK, ULTEE & TIMM, THE WHEN AND WHOM OF FIRST MARRIAGE IN THE NETHERLANDS

IN (EDITORS) BLOSSFELD & TIMM, WHO MARRIES WHOM?, 2003

THE FINDINGS WERE MADE BY COMBINING TWO SURVEYS CONDUCTED IN THE NETHERLANDS, IN 1992

AND 1998

WARREN & HAUSER 1997 DID NOT FIND A DIRECT EFFECT OF THE FIRST GENERATION

ON THE THIRD GENERATION FOR WISCONSIN, USA

EROLA & MOISIO 2007 FOUND ALMOST NO DIRECT OF GRANDPARENTS’ CLASS ON

CHILDREN’S CLASS FOR FINLAND 1950-2000

CHANG IN 2011 AT SPRING MEETING OF RC28 IN ESSEX

PRESENTED FINDINGS ON THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOWING THAT

FIRST GENERATION CLASS HAS A DIRECT EFFECT ON THIRD GENERATION CLASS, NET

OF SECOND GENERATION CLASS AND EDUCATION

(IN SAMPLES OF SOME 2,000, 6,000 AND 4,000 THIRD GENERATION PERSONS)

AT THE SUMMER 2011 MEETING OF RC28 IN IOWA CITY, USA

MARE PLEADED IN FAVOR OF THREE-GENERATION QUESTIONS

MARE ACCEPTED THAT IN TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY DEVELOPED SOCIETIES

THE THIRD GENERATION HAS NO DIRECT EFFECT IN THE BROAD MIDDLE OF THE SOCIAL SCALE,

BUT DOES HAVE EFFECTS AT THE TOP AND BOTTOM

THESE EFFECTS ARE INTERACTIONS, THE FIRST AND SECOND GENERATION DO MORE IN COMBINATION

THAN EACH GENERATION DOES ON ITS OWN

MARE ALSO WANTS TO STUDY THE SIZE OF THE EFFECT OF THE FIRST GENERATION ON THE THIRD GENERATION IN CHINA, BEFORE THE ADVENT OF

INDUSTRIALISM THE MOST DEVELOPED AGRARIAN SOCIETY THE WORLD EVER KNEW

MY HYPOTHESIS HERE IS THAT IN THE CONTEMPORARY NETHERLANDS,

BECAUSE OF THE GENERAL INCREASE IN LONGEVITY,

THE TOTAL EFFECT OF FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION ON THIRD

EDUCATION IS GROWING

OUR DATA PERTAIN TO THE NETHERLANDS

AND WERE COLLECTED IN FIVE SIMILAR SURVEYS CALLED THE

FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH

POPULATION

ABBREVIATED IN DUTCH FNBIN SOUTH AFRICA THIS IS A BANK

YEARS OF SURVEY:

1992

1998

2000

2003

2009

IN EACH SURVEY YEAR ABOUT 1,000 PRIMARY RESPONDENTS

WERE INTERVIEWED

IF THEY WERE OFFICIALLY MARRIED OR LIVING IN A

COMMON-LAW MARRIAGE, THEIR PARTNERS WERE

INTERVIEWED TOO

IF A PARENT WAS STILL ALIVE, THAT PARENT RECEIVED A MAIL

QUESTIONNAIRE

IF A CHILD WAS 25 YEARS OR OLDER, THAT CHILD RECEIVED

A MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE

ALL PRIMARY RESPONDENTS (SECOND GENERATION) WERE ASKED AFTER THE

EDUCATION OF THEIR FATHER AND MOTHER (FIRST GENERATION)

THE PRESENT SPOUSE OF EACH PRIMARY RESPONDENT WAS ASKED AFTER THE EDUCATION

OF HER OR HIS FATHER AND MOTHER

ALL PRIMARY RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED AFTER THE EDUCATION OF ALL THE CHILDREN (THIRD

GENERATION) THEY HAVE WITH THEIR PRESENT SPOUSE

IN THE MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE CHILDREN (THIRD GENERATION) AND PARENTS (FIRST GENERATION)

WERE ASKED AFTER THEIR EDUCATION

SO, WE HAVE TWO MEASURES FOR THIRD GENERATION AND FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION

WE WILL ASSUME IN LATER RESEARCH THAT

PROXY MEASURES ARE LESS ACCURATE THAN

FIRSTHAND MEASURES

WE WILL NOT ESTIMATE FIRSTHAND STATISTICAL MODELS HERE

AT LEAST IN OUR FIRST SURVEY YEAR WE - UNDERSTANDABLY - DID NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH

SECOND GENERATION CASES

WITH DOUBLE MEASURES FOR THE FIRST GENERATION AND FOR THE THIRD GENERATION

FROM OUR FIVE SURVEYS, WITH SOME 5,000 PRIMARY RESPONDENTS

WE EXTRACTED 2,400 CHILDREN 25 YEARS OR OLDER

SOMETIMES MORE THAN ONE CHILD PER PARENT, (WE APPLIED A CLUSTER CORRECTION TO THE

STANDARD ERRORS)

FOR THESE PERSONS WE HAVE VALID SCORES FOR

OWN EDUCATION,

FATHER’S EDUCATION,

MOTHER’S EDUCATION,

EDUCATION OF FATHER’S FATHER,

EDUCATION OF FATHER’S MOTHER,

EDUCATION OF MOTHER’S FATHER, AND

EDUCATION OF MOTHER’S MOTHER

FIRST A TABULAR ANALYSIS SEE ON THE HANDOUT

TABLES 2A, 2B, 2C EN 3

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON

CHILD’S EDUCATION

WHEN HOLDING CONSTANT FOR FATHER’S EDUCATION, FOR THOSE WITH A HIGHLY EDUCATED FATHER, THERE IS

NO EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION

FOR THOSE WITH A LOWLY EDUCATED FATHER, THERE IS A POSITIVE EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S

EDUCATION

SO, THERE IS AN INTERACTION EFFECT, BUT NOT THE ONE PREDICTED BY MARE

THEN WE ESTIMATED LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS

WE RECODED LEVELS OF EDUCATION ACCORDING THE NUMBER OF YEARS PEOPLE MINIMALLY STUDY FOR A

CREDENTIAL

WE PLAYED AROUND BY ESTIMATING TWELVE MODELS

SEE TABLE 4 IN THE HANDOUT

WHEN CONSIDERING ALL CHILDREN, THERE IS A EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION, NET OF FATHER’S

EDUCATION

BUT IT BECOMES INDIRECT UPON THE INTRODUCTION OF MOTHER’S EDUCATION

THIS FINDING REPEATS ITSELF FOR WOMEN, BUT NOT FOR MEN

IN THE SEPERATE COHORTS NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ARE FOUND OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION NET OF

FATHER’S EDUCATION

FINALLY WE ESTIMATED LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS WITH THE ODDS OF TERTIARY CREDENTIALS VERSUS

LOWER CREDENTIALS AS THE PHENOMENON TO BE PREDICTED

WE PLAYED ONCE MORE AROUND WITH MODELS, AND TABLE 5 ONCE MORE PRESENTS TWELVE OF THEM

FOR ALL THIRD GENERATION PERSONS, THERE IS NO DIRECT EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S

EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION,

THAT DIRECT EFFECT IS NOT THERE EITHER FOR MALE CHILDREN OR FEMALE CHILDREN SEPERATELY

WHEN CONSIDERING THE EARLIER GENERATION, THERE IS AN INSIGNIFICANT

TOTAL EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION

IN THE LATER GENERATION THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT OF FATHER’S

FATHER’S EDUCATION

AND A DIRECT EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION, NET OF FATHER’S

EDUCATION

WHEN BRINGING IN MOTHER’S EDUCATION, THE EFFECT OF FATHER’S

FATHER’S EDUCATION BECOMES ALMOST FULLY INDIRECT

THIS TELLS ABOUT INDIRECT EFFECTS OF FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION BY WAY

OF THE EDUCATION OF THE SECOND GENERATION SPOUSE, AS ALLUDED TO

EARLIER

THIS PRESENTATION OBVIOUSLY IS A REPORT ON WORK IN PROGRESS

WE WANT TO ESTIMATE RECURSIVE MODELS

WE HAVE TO DEVISE A BETTER TEST OF CHANGES IN THE COURSE OF TIME BY

RECODING YEAR OF BIRTH

NOT INTO TWO CATEGORIES,

BUT BY TAKING IT IS A METRIC (PERHAPS ACCORDING TO SOME MEASURE FOR LIFE

EXPECTANCY)

WE STILL HAVE TO APPLY CORRECTIONS BY REPLACING PROXY MEASURES FOR THE FIRST

AND THIRD GENERATION BY FIRSTHAND MEASURES (BUT WE DO NOT HAVE THEM FOR

EVERYONE IN OUR SAMPLE)

AS YET, I DO NOT FEEL HOPELESS ABOUT MY

BOURDIEU HYPOTHESES

THIS POWERPOINT IS POSTED ON MY WEBSITE

TYPE IN GOOGLE

WOUT ULTEE

CLICK THE FIRST HIT,

GO ON THE LEFT TO PRESENTATIONS, THEN TO FOREIGN PRESENTATIONS

THERE YOU WILL FIND THE POWERPOINT, THE TABLES AND THE TEXT SO FAR