Third THORPEX International Science Symposium Monterey, CA. September 2009. Status of (SERA) for weather and climate information in Mexico Jorge L. Vázquez.

Third THORPEX International Science SymposiumMonterey, CA. September 2009.

Status of (SERA) for weather and climate information in Mexico

Jorge L. Vázquez (UEA) and Juan Cervantes-Pérez

Climatic Research Unit

Five SERA priorities of North American THORPEX (Morrs et al., 2007)

1. Understanding the use of forecast information in decision making;

2. Communicating weather forecast uncertainty;

3. Developing user-relevant verification methods;

4. Estimating the economic value of weather forecasts;

5. Developing decision-support systems and tools

The SERA framework (Morrs et al., 2007. BAMS)

High impact weather in Mexico

Tabasco.floods, 2008. Photo: FAO. Damages due to strong winds and rainfall; 4

deaths. 1998. Source: Diario de Xalapa.

13th tropical wave 2008

FONDEN indemnities 1995-2003: AGROASEMEX

Tropical cyclones, easterly waves, cold surges or “nortes”, orographic precipitation and local convection

An Early Warning System for Tropical Cyclones (Civil Defense)

Different WARNING stages of the EWS for Tropical Cyclones.

Red: Maximum danger, impacts-mitigation; Orange: High danger-alarm; Yellow: Moderate danger-preparation; Green: Low danger-prevention; Blue: Minimum danger-awareness.

First page of a Civil Defense hidromet. Bulletin. Hurricane Jimena, Sep. 2009.

A “Norte” is a weather type that might result in high societal and economic impacts:

• A high pressure system over the Rocky Mountains moving eastward to the Florida Peninsula.

• Very intense low-level northerly winds over the Gulf of Mexico blowing through the Tehuantepec Istmus reaching Central America

• Daily surface temperature decreases from 2 to 15 degrees related to a cold air mass incursion.

• Precipitation over the eastern coast of Mexico varying in intensity and duration.

Main features corresponding to a “norte” event

Composite pattern for surface pressure and wind

Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (surface)

Composite pattern for surface pressure and wind

Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (surface)

Composite pattern for surface pressure and wind

Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (surface)

Composite pattern for surface pressure and wind

Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (surface)

Composite pattern for surface pressure and wind (surface)

Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (surface)

Composite pattern for geopotential and wind (500 mb)zonal mean removed

Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (500 mb)

Composite pattern for geopotential and wind (500 mb)zonal mean removed

Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (500 mb)

Composite pattern for geopotential and wind (500 mb)zonal mean removed

Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (500 mb)

Composite pattern for geopotential and wind (500 mb)zonal mean removed

Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (500 mb)

Composite pattern for geopotential and wind (500 mb)zonal mean removed

Synoptic patterns associated to a “norte” event (500 mb)

Working with user communities, linking weather and climate

Participants from various socioeconomic sectors. Climate

Prediction Forum, 2007.

ETCCDI Workshop on detection of changes in the climate extremes of Mexico. March, 2009.

•Most of SERA developments at seasonal and monthly time-scales so far.

•One well defined usergroup of climate information: the Climate Prediction Forum meets twice a year to discuss applications of forecasts.

•A new group formed in 2009, aimed to use information on extremes into decision-making processes.

•Recent studies on the economics of climate change could provide a base platform for SERA in shorter time-scales.

Five SERA priorities of North American THORPEX (Morrs et al., 2007)

1. Understanding the use of forecast information in decision making;

2. Communicating weather forecast uncertainty;

3. Developing user-relevant verification methods;

4. Estimating the economic value of weather forecasts;

5. Developing decision-support systems and tools

A survey on the use and perception of weather forecasts

•Launched by the end of winter 2008-2009•Electronic format •Twenty questions •Distributed through: SMN’s webpage and OMMAC e-mail lists•Answers from all the Federal States but two•Respondents: 32% female and 68% male. 57% hold a bachelor’s degree.

One of the questions revealed that 48% of the sample hardly makes a difference between the terms ‘weather’ and ‘climate’.

Look of the survey in SMN’s webpage

Look of the survey in SMN’s webpage

Look of the survey in SMN’s webpage

Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

Use and perception of weather forecasts in Mexico

Next THORPEX-SERA steps in Mexico

•Capacity building in cooperation with U.S. and Canada

•Design/execute a SERA Implementation Plan for Mexico

•Prediction enhancements using TIGGE/NAEFS products

•Demonstration projects and related developments

•Take advantage of existent links between weather and climate user communities

•Promotion of the SERA framework (Morss et al, 2007) across weather/climate related institutions in Mexico

•A NAC meeting to be held in May 2010 organized by IMTA.

Summary and conclusions

•High impact weather systems are mostly identified in Mexico, but need further research (dynamics).

•TIGGE and other recent developments in THORPEX are expected to improve current predictions.

•Taking advantages of existent user groups of climate information is a priority for weather developments.

•A first exercise to assess how the users perceive the weather forecasts in Mexico was conducted. It is suggested to continue working on the topic.

•SERA priorities are to be promoted across Mexico and cooperations with U.S. and Canadian institutions need to be established in the short-term

Acknowledgements

•Michel Rosengaus, Oliva Parada and Raul Larios from SMNcontributed to publish and distribute the survey.

•Valuable comments from Ricardo Prieto and José Llanos.

•Brian Mills and David Parsons have provided constant support & encourangement.

• Support for attending the TTISS was received from THORPEX-IPO, thanks to David Burridge (IPO), Nathalie Tournier (WMO) & Pam Johnson (UCAR).

•Research supported through a studentship by the Government of Mexico (CONACYT & SEP).

Thanks very much for listeningJorge-Luis Vazquez-AguirreClimatic Research Unit University of East AngliaNorwich, UK. NR4 [email protected]

Juan Cervantes-PerezCentro de Ciencias de la TierraUniversidad Veracruzana.Xalapa, Ver. México. [email protected]