Page 1
Woodbine
1
OPWA Right of Way Management Conference
Ajax Ontario November 13 2018
Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROWMission Possible Strategies to Make Room for
Bike Lanes and Bioswales in a Crowded Environment
Robert J Muir MASc PEng
Manager Stormwater City of Markham
Woodbine
Flood Constraints in the ROW (August 19 2005)
2
Woodbine
ROW Infrastructure Back-up (July 16 2017)
3
The Solution (After)
bull 30 year program
bull $234 M cost
4
The Solution (During)
5
Itrsquos Even Crowded for Staging
6
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling
book summarizes decades of
research into thinking ndash how we
frame and solve problems and the
heuristic biases can cloud effective
thinking
7
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Fast
bull Errors due to
heuristic
biases or
ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in
problem
solving
8
bull Slow
bull Needed for
todayrsquos
complex
constrained
and conflicted
design
challenges
Complex Constrained Crowded
9
BIOSWALE
BIKELANE
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
11
bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall
that would make sewers bigger come from
i) the insurance industry and
ii) some conservation authorities
bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather
Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada
stated
ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40
years are now happening once every 6 years
in some regions in the countryrdquo
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
12
bull Main author from the University
of Western directed me to the
Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) for the data
bull ICLR director shared future
climate predictions research
papers and asked for patience
to find the Engineering Climate
Dataset data referenced in the
report (past data)
bull Months went by hellip
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 2
Woodbine
Flood Constraints in the ROW (August 19 2005)
2
Woodbine
ROW Infrastructure Back-up (July 16 2017)
3
The Solution (After)
bull 30 year program
bull $234 M cost
4
The Solution (During)
5
Itrsquos Even Crowded for Staging
6
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling
book summarizes decades of
research into thinking ndash how we
frame and solve problems and the
heuristic biases can cloud effective
thinking
7
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Fast
bull Errors due to
heuristic
biases or
ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in
problem
solving
8
bull Slow
bull Needed for
todayrsquos
complex
constrained
and conflicted
design
challenges
Complex Constrained Crowded
9
BIOSWALE
BIKELANE
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
11
bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall
that would make sewers bigger come from
i) the insurance industry and
ii) some conservation authorities
bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather
Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada
stated
ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40
years are now happening once every 6 years
in some regions in the countryrdquo
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
12
bull Main author from the University
of Western directed me to the
Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) for the data
bull ICLR director shared future
climate predictions research
papers and asked for patience
to find the Engineering Climate
Dataset data referenced in the
report (past data)
bull Months went by hellip
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 3
Woodbine
ROW Infrastructure Back-up (July 16 2017)
3
The Solution (After)
bull 30 year program
bull $234 M cost
4
The Solution (During)
5
Itrsquos Even Crowded for Staging
6
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling
book summarizes decades of
research into thinking ndash how we
frame and solve problems and the
heuristic biases can cloud effective
thinking
7
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Fast
bull Errors due to
heuristic
biases or
ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in
problem
solving
8
bull Slow
bull Needed for
todayrsquos
complex
constrained
and conflicted
design
challenges
Complex Constrained Crowded
9
BIOSWALE
BIKELANE
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
11
bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall
that would make sewers bigger come from
i) the insurance industry and
ii) some conservation authorities
bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather
Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada
stated
ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40
years are now happening once every 6 years
in some regions in the countryrdquo
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
12
bull Main author from the University
of Western directed me to the
Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) for the data
bull ICLR director shared future
climate predictions research
papers and asked for patience
to find the Engineering Climate
Dataset data referenced in the
report (past data)
bull Months went by hellip
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 4
The Solution (After)
bull 30 year program
bull $234 M cost
4
The Solution (During)
5
Itrsquos Even Crowded for Staging
6
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling
book summarizes decades of
research into thinking ndash how we
frame and solve problems and the
heuristic biases can cloud effective
thinking
7
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Fast
bull Errors due to
heuristic
biases or
ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in
problem
solving
8
bull Slow
bull Needed for
todayrsquos
complex
constrained
and conflicted
design
challenges
Complex Constrained Crowded
9
BIOSWALE
BIKELANE
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
11
bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall
that would make sewers bigger come from
i) the insurance industry and
ii) some conservation authorities
bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather
Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada
stated
ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40
years are now happening once every 6 years
in some regions in the countryrdquo
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
12
bull Main author from the University
of Western directed me to the
Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) for the data
bull ICLR director shared future
climate predictions research
papers and asked for patience
to find the Engineering Climate
Dataset data referenced in the
report (past data)
bull Months went by hellip
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 5
The Solution (During)
5
Itrsquos Even Crowded for Staging
6
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling
book summarizes decades of
research into thinking ndash how we
frame and solve problems and the
heuristic biases can cloud effective
thinking
7
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Fast
bull Errors due to
heuristic
biases or
ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in
problem
solving
8
bull Slow
bull Needed for
todayrsquos
complex
constrained
and conflicted
design
challenges
Complex Constrained Crowded
9
BIOSWALE
BIKELANE
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
11
bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall
that would make sewers bigger come from
i) the insurance industry and
ii) some conservation authorities
bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather
Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada
stated
ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40
years are now happening once every 6 years
in some regions in the countryrdquo
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
12
bull Main author from the University
of Western directed me to the
Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) for the data
bull ICLR director shared future
climate predictions research
papers and asked for patience
to find the Engineering Climate
Dataset data referenced in the
report (past data)
bull Months went by hellip
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 6
Itrsquos Even Crowded for Staging
6
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling
book summarizes decades of
research into thinking ndash how we
frame and solve problems and the
heuristic biases can cloud effective
thinking
7
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Fast
bull Errors due to
heuristic
biases or
ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in
problem
solving
8
bull Slow
bull Needed for
todayrsquos
complex
constrained
and conflicted
design
challenges
Complex Constrained Crowded
9
BIOSWALE
BIKELANE
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
11
bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall
that would make sewers bigger come from
i) the insurance industry and
ii) some conservation authorities
bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather
Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada
stated
ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40
years are now happening once every 6 years
in some regions in the countryrdquo
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
12
bull Main author from the University
of Western directed me to the
Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) for the data
bull ICLR director shared future
climate predictions research
papers and asked for patience
to find the Engineering Climate
Dataset data referenced in the
report (past data)
bull Months went by hellip
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 7
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Daniel Kahnemanrsquos best-selling
book summarizes decades of
research into thinking ndash how we
frame and solve problems and the
heuristic biases can cloud effective
thinking
7
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Fast
bull Errors due to
heuristic
biases or
ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in
problem
solving
8
bull Slow
bull Needed for
todayrsquos
complex
constrained
and conflicted
design
challenges
Complex Constrained Crowded
9
BIOSWALE
BIKELANE
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
11
bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall
that would make sewers bigger come from
i) the insurance industry and
ii) some conservation authorities
bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather
Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada
stated
ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40
years are now happening once every 6 years
in some regions in the countryrdquo
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
12
bull Main author from the University
of Western directed me to the
Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) for the data
bull ICLR director shared future
climate predictions research
papers and asked for patience
to find the Engineering Climate
Dataset data referenced in the
report (past data)
bull Months went by hellip
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 8
Thinking Fast and Slow
bull Fast
bull Errors due to
heuristic
biases or
ldquoshort-cutsrdquo in
problem
solving
8
bull Slow
bull Needed for
todayrsquos
complex
constrained
and conflicted
design
challenges
Complex Constrained Crowded
9
BIOSWALE
BIKELANE
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
11
bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall
that would make sewers bigger come from
i) the insurance industry and
ii) some conservation authorities
bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather
Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada
stated
ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40
years are now happening once every 6 years
in some regions in the countryrdquo
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
12
bull Main author from the University
of Western directed me to the
Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) for the data
bull ICLR director shared future
climate predictions research
papers and asked for patience
to find the Engineering Climate
Dataset data referenced in the
report (past data)
bull Months went by hellip
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 9
Complex Constrained Crowded
9
BIOSWALE
BIKELANE
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
11
bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall
that would make sewers bigger come from
i) the insurance industry and
ii) some conservation authorities
bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather
Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada
stated
ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40
years are now happening once every 6 years
in some regions in the countryrdquo
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
12
bull Main author from the University
of Western directed me to the
Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) for the data
bull ICLR director shared future
climate predictions research
papers and asked for patience
to find the Engineering Climate
Dataset data referenced in the
report (past data)
bull Months went by hellip
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 10
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Why Are New Sewers Bigger Are They Big Enough
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
11
bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall
that would make sewers bigger come from
i) the insurance industry and
ii) some conservation authorities
bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather
Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada
stated
ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40
years are now happening once every 6 years
in some regions in the countryrdquo
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
12
bull Main author from the University
of Western directed me to the
Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) for the data
bull ICLR director shared future
climate predictions research
papers and asked for patience
to find the Engineering Climate
Dataset data referenced in the
report (past data)
bull Months went by hellip
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 11
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
11
bull Many statements about more extreme rainfall
that would make sewers bigger come from
i) the insurance industry and
ii) some conservation authorities
bull A 2012 report called ldquoTelling the Weather
Storyrdquo for the Insurance Bureau of Canada
stated
ldquoWeather events that used to happen every 40
years are now happening once every 6 years
in some regions in the countryrdquo
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
12
bull Main author from the University
of Western directed me to the
Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) for the data
bull ICLR director shared future
climate predictions research
papers and asked for patience
to find the Engineering Climate
Dataset data referenced in the
report (past data)
bull Months went by hellip
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 12
Media and ldquoInsurance Factsrdquo on Bigger Storms
12
bull Main author from the University
of Western directed me to the
Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) for the data
bull ICLR director shared future
climate predictions research
papers and asked for patience
to find the Engineering Climate
Dataset data referenced in the
report (past data)
bull Months went by hellip
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 13
The real data hellip on YouTube
13
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 14
Just a Concept hellip a ldquoBell Curverdquo shift hellip no data
14wwwcityfloodmapcom
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 15
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall ndash Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau of Canada ldquoTelling
the Weather Storyrdquo Increase
(but no data)
Environment Canada Data
Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically
significant over 6 to 24 hrs)
15
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 16
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer
sizes
16
Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond amp storage volumes
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 17
wwwcityfloodmapcom
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
bull Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data
bull More rain
decreases
than rain
increases
bull S Ont twice
as many
significant
decreases
17httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601climate-change-ontario-short-durationhtml
Significant DecrDecreaseIncreaseSignificant Incr
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFIdf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trendstxt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v230zip
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 18
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
bull 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
27 of climate
stations
bull 93 of trends are
insignificant or lsquono
datarsquo
bull A whole lotta
nothinrsquo goinrsquo on
18
SignificantlyDown 3
SignificantlyUp 427
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 19
19httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climatehtmlhttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-byhtml
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 20
Rain Intensity Trends ndash Lower in Southern Ontario
bull Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease
bull Toronto City ldquoBloor
Streetrdquo trends lower
for all durations amp
all return periods
bull Design standard
lsquooldrsquo IDF is
conservative
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201601toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfallhtml
wwwcityfloodmapcom
SourceEnvironment Canada Engineering Climate DatasetftpftptorecgccaPubEngineering_Climate_DatasetIDFUp to 2007 per Dataset v23 to 2003 per Dataset v1 to 1990 per hardcopy records
20
Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min)ID 6158355 (Toronto City)
Return Period (Years)
Intensity (mmhr) Change
1990 2007 1990 - 2007
2 1139 1092 -41
10 1896 1801 -50
25 2277 2158 -52
100 284 2685 -55
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 21
Data Facts Comes Out in Media amp Marketing
bull Insurance lsquofactsrsquo amp other
infographics
21
bull Data facts from ECCC
ndash ldquoLack of a detectable trend signalrdquo (Atmosphere-Ocean 2014)
ndash Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data)
ndash ldquoNo significant change in rainfall events over several decadesrdquo (CBC letter 2015)
ndash ldquoECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statementrdquo (Cdn Underwriter 2016)
ndash ldquoIf this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada then I would have concernsrdquo (personal communication ECCC 2018)
httphttpswwwslidesharenetRobertMuir3storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 22
bull Capacity upgrades up to
400 required to meet
todayrsquos 100 year level or
service Its big enough and
has a safety fact because
intensities have been
decreasing
Existing 900 mm dia (2 yr)
New 1800 mm dia (100 yr)
Are Sewers Big Enough YES
But what about Climate
ChangeIts not big enough
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 23
Only
Milli Vanilli
ldquoBlame It
On The
Rainrdquo
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 24
Thatrsquos Crazy Talk Rob Flood Damages Are Up
24
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 25
Insurance Industry ldquoFactrdquo
bull ldquoWater Damagerdquo is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
httphttpassetsibccaDocumentsResourcesIBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018pdf
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 26
Not long ago in many cities not far away hellip
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 27
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope forCost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 28
Have the floods ldquoawakenedrdquo
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 29
Look at some data we must
$400 M yrgt $1 B yr
CatIQData
ldquovarious company surveysrdquo
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 30
Flood water storm perils hellip
2013 is a rarelarge event
2013 $40k loss perhome not lsquoaveragersquo
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 31
Water damage is decreasing
340 of Total Losses317
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 32
ldquoFear is the path to the dark siderdquo
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 33
Whatrsquos Going On hellipThinking Fast
35
People are not accustomed to thinking hard
and are often content to trust a plausible
judgment that comes to mind
Daniel Kahneman American Economic Review
93 (5) December 2003 p 1450
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 34
Thinking Fast vs Thinking Slow
36
bull Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years
bull Water damage a key driver to
increasing insured losses
bull New normal
bull Data shows lack of detectable
trend signal in rainfall
intensities
bull Data shows water damage only
13 of losses and is a
decreasing percentage
bull Same old extremes
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 35
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 36
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 37
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 39
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 38
What Is Causing More Flooding Urbanization
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201608land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-riskhtml 40
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 39
What Else Is Causing More Flooding Deeper Finished Basements
httpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-uphtml 41
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 40
But we have unprecedented flood events Rob
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 41
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
httphttpwwwcityfloodmapcom201512toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8html 43
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 42
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented
44
2017 1973
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 43
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
74
742
744
746
748
75
752
754
756
758
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Mo
nth
ly L
eve
l (m
)
Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels
May Average
August AverageSource 1918-2016 httpwwwtidesgccaCampAnetwork_means-enghtml2017 httptides-mareesgccaCampApdfBulletin1708pdf
May 5 cm above recordAugust not a record
45
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 44
We have always had flooding
Engineers donrsquot let that stop them inin their quests hellip 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 45
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 46
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice hellip
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 47
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 48
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
BaseflowsIncreasing for50 years
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 49
51
Conservation Authority Says ldquoCommon Thoughtrdquo Is Inaccurate
bull ldquoAt all but two gauging stations a positive or upward trend was observed These upward trends vary depending on the watershed ranging from 2 in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45 in the Rouge These overall increases to baseflowvolumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflowrdquo
httpwwwctcswpcawp-contentuploads201507RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRezpdf
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 50
52
ldquoExcessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraintrdquo
Green infrastructure saves money
Then Why Say That
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 51
53
Green infrastructure saves money in rural Arkansas
httpwwwcityfloodmapcom201709toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lakehtml
No curbs and sewersldquosave moneyrdquoIs this a typical setting in OntarioDoes it meet Places to Grow densities
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 52
54
What about here in the GTA
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 53
55
City of Toronto Fairford and Coxwell
httphttpssustainabletechnologiescaappuploads201708Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017pdf
Ontario and US Project Costshttpswwwcityfloodmapcom201807green-infrastructure-capital-andhtml
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 54
56
Ontario Costs ndash Over $500000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized
technol-ogies
Grey Central Green Distributed
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 55
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
Co
st (
$M
)
lt $01 M
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 56
Flood Control Program - Markham
01
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards DownspoutPrgm
BackwaterValve Pgm
SanSewerUpgrades
Stm SewerUpgrades
Green InfrRetrofit
lt $01 M
GreyInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 20 Insured
= 55 Total
GreenInfrastructureBenefit Cost= 01 Insured
= 03 Total
Best Practices
No RegretsPolicies amp Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 263 M
$219 Bfor
25 ofcity
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 57
Conclusionsbull Crowded the Right of Way it isbull To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical ldquoThinking Slowrdquo we must do
bull On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy may the force be with you
bull The path to the dark side ldquoThinking Fastrdquo it is
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018
Page 58
Questions
Robert J Muir MASc PEngrmuirmarkhamca
Blog wwwCityFloodMapcomPodcast Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter RobertMuir_PEngWeb wwwmarkhamca
OPWA Right of Way Management ConferenceAjax Ontario November 13 2018