TheTrendwatch #10

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TheTrendWatchby FullSIX Group

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Future is about breakthrough, not incremental evolution.

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e’re in the midst of a sea change…

As of March 2009, we now spend more time social networking than emailing.

Around the globe, social technology is introducing new consumer behavior, which in turn, is sprouting disruptive business and communication models. And with a massive Google Wave heading to shore, the forecast calls for a higher frequency of creative destruction.

In these frenzied waters, incremental evolution may help a business model survive, but not thrive. The future is about breakthrough. And it belongs to the business models that adapt quickly to movements in social behavior and technology.

So grab a board, paddle out with us and examine 10 new business and communication models that are positioned for a killer ride.

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2007 Facebook users = population of Italy (50 million)

2008 Facebook users = population of Russia (140 million)

2009 Facebook users = population of USA (300 million)

TheTrendWatch.com © FullSIX Group - All rights reserved, no reproduction or diffusion without written authorization4


Sources: Socialnomics - http://socialnomics.net/

http://socialnomics.net

http://socialnomics.net


#1Enhanced RealityBecause reality bites...


Most parents, at one time or another, have scolded their kids for spending too much time in the virtual world. “Go outside and play in the real world”, they’ve cried.

What will kids think tomorrow, when they see a bunch of grownups walking around, blurring the lines between what’s virtual and what’s real?

Dubbed AR, Augmented Reality technology uses a smartphone’s camera, GPS, and compass, to overlay virtual information on top of one’s real world surroundings. Part useful, part captivating, AR can also be bundled to emit buzz.


1 out of 9 french households have a WII(3 ,2 million)

83% of WII players play as a family

25% of WII players are 35-50 Y.O.

Source: Institut GFK (mai 2009) - OpinionWay (2008)

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Sources: Fujitsu U-Scan - http://www.fujitsu.com/

http://www.fujitsu.com

http://www.fujitsu.com











The most powerful brand experiences enliven the senses.

By helping consumers master their surroundings, AR is like adding a 6th sense to your overall brand experience.


#2Geospatial Intelligence The location of anything is everything!

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We live in the Global Location Age.

‘Where am I?’ is being replaced by ‘Where am I in relation to everything else?’

The answer to the emerging question ‘Where am I in relation to everything else?’ is a new business opportunity for every brand. The more we go mobile, the more we will question our surroundings. Brands that proactively deliver real-time contextual answers will be a point of interest on the map and in social networks (where everywhere we go/everything we consume is shared).

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USA33% percent of consumers are interested

in using their cell phones to find local businesses and products.

Sources: 2008, Jupiter /Forrester Research

EUROPE52% of smartphone owners with mobile

Internet are interested in using mobile geo-localized services.








By meeting our need for geospatial intelligence, brands can move potential customers from Point A (aware of products & services) to Point B (buyers based on geospatial intelligence).


#3C-commerce Introducing 'Content Commerce'

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Retail and the entertainment industry have always been close.

But with the explosion of interactive video, they’re about to be joined at the hip.

C-commerce enables viewers to click on video content and buy items as they watch.

For Fight Club fans, it looks like the Ikea catalogue scene you loved is now a reality.

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According to ComScore, Youtube became the second worldwide search engine. In January 2009, U.S. Internet users viewed 14.8 billion online videos during the month… Every minute they watched the equivalent of every radio and TV show ever created since 1940 in france.

The French “INA archives” (European leader) managed to digitalize only 250,000 docs over the past 40 years!

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USA42 hours/week entertainment (all screens)

42 hours/week working

42 hours/week sleeping

Sources: Council for Research Excellence and Nielsen, March 2009

EUROPE32 hours/week entertainment (all screens)

49 hours/week working

42 hours/week sleeping








Content will increasingly drive commerce.


#4Cross-screen Walk through the new consumer path.

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The media universe is expanding and media consumption is up on all screens.

What this means to marketers is game changing: the message will need to be accessible when, where and how consumers want it, with a tailored added value.

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Let’s transform fragmentation into synergy...

In France, any person over 13 is exposed to 38,6 multimedia screen per day (+13,9% compared to 2005)







m: 1












The emerging communication model is the game-scenario vs. movie storytelling.

Brands that breakthrough will create a game-like environment, where consumers “live inside” the communication, follow their own path and personalize the experience.


#5Micro-commerce Digital 'a la carte'


For over a decade, there have been big promises for micro-payment solutions.

Yet we’ve only seen small change; unless, of course, you consider a little platform called iTunes.

And with the iPhone OS 3.0 enabling in-app payments, Apple is poised to once again make small change add up quickly; and so too will every other brand as micro-commerce goes macro.

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According to NPD MusicWatch (2009), when it comes to the unit-sales volume of music sold at retail – including paid digital music downloads and CDs – Apple iTunes leads in the U.S. with 25 percent of music units sold, which is up from 21 percent in 2008 and 14 percent in 2007.

Walmart (including Walmart, Walmart.com, Walmart Music Downloads) remains in second position with 14 percent of music volume sold at their stores and Web sites with Best Buy ranked third.

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Apple's App Store could emerge a $1.2 billion business by the end of 2009...







Micro-commerce is activating new revenue streams for digital media, and all companies.

Offering up goods and services in micro-payments can help virtually any brand convert pre-meditated consumer behavior into impulse purchase decisions.


#6Talkin’worldAre you talking to me?

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If your fridge, your plants or anything in your house could talk, they would probably have a lot to say.

Imagine your secretary buzzing you, “I’ve got Rose on line 2, she says she desperately needs water.” What will happen when you forget to water Rose? Will she send a last tweet alerting your friends of neglect? As more objects ‘informationalize’, they could become powerful communication channels of their own.

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1,5 billion Coca-Cola bottles are sold everyday, 45 million every hour,750,000 buyers every minute...

The best score ever for a TV show broadcast by CBS is 10 million viewers.

Every month CNN attracts 72 million people.Coca-Cola does the same in less than 2 hours.

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Objects as channels could be an endearing way to engage consumers and build social interaction around a product.

Brands now have their own free media!

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#7Ground-swell surfingFind the best spot.

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Wind speed, duration and fetch are three main factors in the ocean that produce groundswell waves (a.k.a. surfer’s gold).

These same three factors are at work online: new social technology is emerging swiftly (speed), all segments are spending more time social networking (duration) in every corner of the globe (fetch). The net effect has been golden for business models old and new that are positioning themselves for the ride.

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Research findings of Dr. Cameron Marlow, the “in-house sociologist” at Facebook, suggests that the average number of “friends” in a Facebook network is 120, consistent with the Dunbar number.

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Even the most traditional businesses can benefit from the ground-swell by reorganizing how production and consumption are organized (vs. merely how goods and services are bought and sold). By incentivizing individual production/action, any social brand/platform can amass a following and affect global change.

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#8Data warsThe race for the web 3.0

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If Facebook were a country it would be the world’s 4th largest between the United States and Indonesia; a “social graph” of this size hides untapped resources for any brand.

In the past, Facebook’s data would have been daunting to extract and make sense of. But with advancements in data visualization technology, it’s becoming easier to understand complex patterns and correlations. And as Facebook (and soon Twitter) welcomes foreign exploration, new streams of revenue will be visualized and the data war will only escalate.

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By 2011, the digital universe will be 10 times the size it was in 2006.

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The benefits of data visualization are enormous. From an R&D perspective, it’s a way to gain new insight into complex social behavior.

From a sales and marketing perspective, it's a platform for showcasing products and services in the context of the cultural interaction that surrounds them.


#9Freemium modelWhy $0.00 Is the Future of Business

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Chris Anderson’s theory on Free has been contentious. And rightly so; it seems risky to give away goods and services we typically charge for.

On the flip side, it’s precarious to rely on advertising to sell ‘me-too’ goods and services amidst the clutter.

To breakthrough, it increasingly pays to let a mass audience experience a brand’s value proposition gratis. Because when a brand nails that experience, people will line up to pay for premium goodies that are hiding behind the curtain.

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In communications, tension helps a message to breakthrough.

Freemium, on the other hand, applies tension to convert basic goods/services to premium ones.

“Information wants to be free. Information also wants to be expensive… That tension will not go away.” – Steward Brand

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#10The long tail vs. DNA-generatedThe future of ultra-customization

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The problem with the Long Tail is that superficial nuances in pre-manufactured product lines are flawed.

Take drugs for example. Due to differences in DNA, up to 60% of the most common drugs today are associated with side affects. Imagine the brand opportunity for a drug company, or any company for that matter, that can reduce adverse product reactions to virtually zero by producing goods shortly after consulting an individual’s make up.

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As the cost of flexible computer-aided manufacturing systems decreases, more companies will disrupt and gain competitive advantage over a Long Tail approach.

The positive reactions in one category could be contagious to others.

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ConclusionThe biggest lesson of the first digital era

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Thank you!

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TheTrendwatch #10

Technology

written authorization

thetrendwatchby fullsix

business models

social technology

new business

virtual world

social behavior

whats virtual