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THE RISE OF ASIA AND CANADA’S RELATIONS WITH ASIA

1

The Rise of Asia

2

-‐2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Average GDP growth rate

Annual GDP Growth rates : Selected Countries, 2008-2012

Source: World Bank data base at h;p://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG

3

Canada and Asia •  Current trade relaMons with Asia is not dominant •  As Canada, and Alberta, looks to reduce its dependence on the US market and to increase its linkages to the fastest growing markets in the world, Asia has become a prime focus of Canadian businesses and policy makers.

•  Asia’s populaMon size and rising incomes have impacted on Canada’s primary sector directly and holds the promise of future market growth.

•  Canada is an exporter of resources and primary products to Asia and a transit point for Asian imports into the North American market

•  Canada’s Northern Gateway Policy is intended to facilitate integraMon with Asia and makes the West coast a logisMcs hub for the Asian Trade.

4

Source: Asia-‐Pacific FoundaMon, Canada’s Asia Challenge: Crea0ng Competence for the Next genera0on of Canadians, A Report of the Asian Competence Task Force, 2013, Box 1, p.11.

Asia’s Rising Influence in Canada

5

Source: Source: Asia-‐Pacific FoundaMon, Canada’s Asia Challenge: Crea0ng Competence for the Next genera0on of Canadians, A Report of the Asian Competence Task Force, 2013, Box 15, p.41

Canada’s Energy Outlook

6

Asia Pacific Economic CooperaJon (APEC) and

the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP)

7

APEC APEC is a forum of 21 pacific rim countries established to promote growth and prosperity in the Asia Pacific region through economic cooperaMon. Its annual leaders summit is an important venue for heads of state to discuss mutual concerns and collaboraMon. Free trade associaMons are found among its members such as ASEAN, NAFTA and other bilateral agreements.

8

Source: www.apec.org

APEC Membership

9

The Trans-‐Pacific Partnership (TPP) Trade Talks

•  Aside from bilateral free trade talks, TPP talks have become a key focus of Canada’s Asia trade policy.

•  The TPP agreement was iniMated in 2005 by Brunei, Singapore, Chile, and New Zealand to create a trans-‐Pacific Free trade area. It has since expanded to include Australia, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Peru, the United States, and Vietnam also.

•  It is part of the trend to replace mulMlateral trade agreements with bilateral and regional agreements

•  This is significant as it includes countries in the fastest growing economic region, save China.

10

Source: Ian Fergusson et.al., The Trans-‐Pacific Partnership NegoMaMons and Issues for Congress, CRS Report for Congress, August 21, 2013, Figure 2, p.6

Free Trade Area and Bilateral trade agreements among partnership countries

11

Source: Christy Chen Trans-‐Pacific Partnership: Canada’s Next Trade Agreement?, Focus, BMO Economic Research, May 17, 2013, Table 1, p.9 12

Source: Dawson, Laura and Stefania Bartucci, Canada and the Trans-‐Pacific Partnership: Entering a New Era of Strategic Trade Policy, Fraser InsMtute, September 2013, Fig. 6, p.6.

Canada’s Exports to Top Five Trading Partners, 2012 (billions $CAD)

13

Source: Dawson, Laura and Stefania Bartucci, Canada and the Trans-‐Pacific Partnership: Entering a New Era of Strategic Trade Policy , Fraser InsMtute, September 2013, Figure 7, p.7.

Canada’s Exports to Top TPP Countries, 2012 (billions of $CAD)

14

Source: Dawson, Laura and Stefania Bartucci, Canada and the Trans-‐Pacific Partnership: Entering a New Era of Strategic Trade Policy, Fraser InsMtute, September 2013, Fig. 1, p.2.

Per Capita GDP of TPP Countries, 2012 ($US)

15

Source: Dawson, Laura and Stefania Bartucci, Canada and the Trans-‐Pacific Partnership: Entering a New Era of Strategic Trade Policy, Fraser InsMtute, September 2013, Fig. 2, p.3

PopulaJon of TPP Countries, 2012 (millions)

16

Source: Dawson, Laura and Stefania Bartucci, Canada and the Trans-‐Pacific Partnership: Entering a New Era of Strategic Trade Policy, Fraser InsMtute, September 2013, Fig. 3, p.3

17

Source: Christy Chen Trans-‐Pacific Partnership: Canada’s Next Trade Agreement?, Focus, BMO Economic Research, May 17, 2013, Chart 2, p.8.

18

Source: Andrew Sleigh, et.al., “Asian Growth Journeys,” Accenture, 2013 p.3

Growth in Asian InternaJonal Investment, 2003 to 2011

19

Asia will be an important source of capital

Canada’s Trade RelaJons with Asia

20

Source: The Asia Factor, Asia Pacific FoundaMon of Canada, 2015

Canada’s Trade with Asia 2014

21


22


23


24


25


26

Source: Asia-‐Pacific FoundaMon, Canada’s Asia Challenge: Crea0ng Competence for the Next genera0on of Canadians, A Report of the Asian Competence Task Force, 2013, Table 6, Table 2, p.33.

China’s Preferred InternaJonal Tourism DesJnaJon

27


28

Source: Asia-‐Pacific FoundaMon, Canada’s Asia Challenge: Crea0ng Competence for the Next genera0on of Canadians, A Report of the Asian Competence Task Force, 2013, Graph 1, p.12

How Canadians see the Importance Of Selected countries

29

Canada’s Merchandise Trade with Asia Pacific, 2012 Canadian Imports from Asia Pacific Canadian Exports to Asia Pacific Merchandise ClassificaJon % Merchandise ClassificaJon %

1 Electrical machinery and equipment 21.71 Mineral fuels, oils 12.34

2 Boilers, mechanical appliances, etc. 18.19 Oil seeds and misc. fruit, grain, etc. 10.85

3 Motor vehicles, trailers, bicycles, motorcycles 11.67 Ores, slag and ash 10.43

4 Iron or steel arMcles 3.96 Woodpulp; paper or paperboard scraps 8.62

5 Furniture and stuffed furnishings 3.89 Wood and wood arMcles, charcoal 6.17

6 Kni;ed or crocheted apparel 3.79 Cereals 4.55

7 Woven clothing and apparel arMcles 3.59 Boilers, mechanical appliances, etc. 4.26

8 Toys, games, sports equipment 3.14 FerMlizers 3.91

9 Rubber and rubber arMcles 2.63 Meat and edible meat offal 3.55

10 OpMcal, medical, scienMfic, technical instrumentaMon 2.55 Fats, oils and waxes 3.46

Top 10 as % of total from Asia 75.11 Top 10 as % of total to Asia 68.17

Asian imports as % of Cdn total 20.01 Asian exports as % of Cdn total 10.46 Source: Trade Data Online. Industry Canada. 5 March 2013. h;p://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/tdo-‐dcd.nsf/eng/Home

30

Canada’s Market Share in Top 10 Asian Markets, 2012 (millions $Cdn)

Total Imports Imports from Canada

Proportions of Total Imports

(%) Rank

Australia 260,736 2,476 0.95 5 China 1,889,680 23,669 1.25 1

Hong Kong, SAR 524,939 1,801 0.34 7

India 510,030 2,924 0.57 4

Indonesia 199,359 1,883 0.94 6

Japan 921,454 13,206 1.43 2 Singapore 395,158 1,293 0.33 9 South Korea 540,367 5,457 1.01 3 Taiwan 281,292 1,689 0.60 8 Thailand 261,523 982 0.38 10

Asia Total 6,316,616 58,864 0.93 Source: Trade Data Online. Industry Canada., June 3, 2013.

31

2011

Canadian Imports

2012 Canadian Imports

2012 Proportions of

Total (%) Rank

Australia 1,767 2,080 0.45 8 China 48,184 50,713 10.98 1 India 2,534 2,856 0.62 5 Japan 13,058 15,022 3.25 2

Malaysia 2,139 2,226 0.48 7 Singapore 1,555 1,425 0.31 10

South Korea 6,616 6,374 1.38 3 Taiwan 4,931 4,583 0.99 4

Thailand 2,675 2,633 0.57 6 Vietnam 1,332 1,618 0.35 9

Total 89,489 94,242 20.4

Source: Trade Data Online. Industry Canada., June 3, 2013.

Market Share of Top 10 Asian Exporters to Canada, 2011-2012

32

Adapted from www.asiapacific.ca/staMsMcs/trade/market share

33

Canada-‐China Trade 34

Canada and China

•  h;p://globalnews.ca/video/913818/canada-‐governor-‐general-‐engages-‐china-‐to-‐open-‐up-‐trade

•  h;p://live.wsj.com/video/canada-‐growing-‐china-‐trade-‐connecMon/C5EC68E9-‐3404-‐4344-‐A5B7-‐D94C4888D0D3.html#!C5EC68E9-‐3404-‐4344-‐A5B7-‐D94C4888D0

•  h;p://www.cigionline.org/videos/china-‐canada-‐relaMons-‐changing-‐global-‐contextD3

35

Source: World Trade Atlas

USA 62%

China 7%

United Kingdom 3%

Japan 3%

Brazil, Russia, India 2%

Others 23%

Canadian Bilateral Trade (2011)

36

Source: www.economonitor.com/analysts/files/2012/02/image003.png

Bilateral Trade Flow: Canada -‐ China

37

Source:www.parl.gc.ca/content/LOP/researchPublicaMons/2013-‐55-‐55-‐e.htm

Canada – China Trade

38

Top Products in Sino Canadian Trade

China’s Top Exports to Canada •  PlasMc •  Kni;ed Clothing & Apparel •  Woven Clothing •  Toys, Games, sporMng goods •  Computers & mechanical

appliances •  Electrical or Electronic

equipment •  Furniture, lamps & Illuminated

signs •  Foot ware •  Iron and Steel •  OpMcal and medical equipment

Canada’s Top Exports to China

•  Organic chemicals •  Computers & mechanical

appliances •  FerMlizers •  Nickel & nickel products •  Fats, Oils & Waxes •  Ores, slag and ash •  Electrical and electronic

equipment •  Fish, Crustaceans, molluscs •  Cereals •  Wood pulp & wastes & scraps

39 Source: DFAIT Trade StaMsMcs

Source: World Trade Atlas

$9.5 $10.5 $11.2

$13.2

$16.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Bill

ions

of $

Canadian Exports to China (2007 – 2011)

40

Source: World Trade Atlas 41

Source: World Trade Atlas 42

Canada-‐ China Trade

Source:www.parl.gc.ca/content/LOP/researchPublicaMons/2013-‐55-‐55-‐e.htm 43



44



45



46



47



48

Adapted from www.asiapacific.ca/staMsMcs/trade/bilateral trade 49

Adapted from www.asiapacific.ca/staMsMcs/trade/bilateral trade

50

Exports to China by Province (%) -‐ 2012

Source:www.parl.gc.ca/content/LOP/researchPublicaMons/2013-‐55-‐55-‐e.htm 51


Bilateral FDI Flows

52

Source: Office of the Chief Economist of Canada Note: FDI China into Canada in 2006 and 2007 are esMmates

53

Source: www.conferenceboard.ca/economics/hot_eco_topics/default/12-‐11-‐12/as_Canada_s_trade_shiqs_the_world

Future Trade ProjecJons

54

Source: Asia-‐Pacific FoundaMon, Canada’s Asia Challenge: Crea0ng Competence for the Next genera0on of Canadians, A Report of the Asian Competence Task Force, 2013, Table 6, Table 2, p.33.

China’s Preferred InternaJonal Tourism DesJnaJon

55

Source: Office of the Chief Economist of Canada Note: FDI China into Canada in 2006 and 2007 are esMmates

56

China -‐ Canada Bilateral Direct Investment

57

Energy 74%

Mining 23%

Finance 0%

Green energy 2%

Misc. 1%

Other 3%

DistribuJon of Chinese FDI by Sector (2005-‐2012)

Source: Companies’ news releases

Sectoral distribuJon of Chinese investment in Canada

58

Chinese firms in Canada Seem to have invested according to naJonal goals

What is Canada’s desJny in Asia? What is our role in the Asian Value Chain? Do we want to be part of this chain? Can we afford to ignore it?

Discussions

59

Canadian View of Asia 2010 Agree with Statement Canada I consider Canada to be part of the Asia Pacific region 29%

Asian economies are vital to the well-‐being of Canada 62%

The Government of Canada should aim to diversify its trade to be less dependent on the United States

76%

The growing importance of China as an economic power is more of an opportunity than a threat

48%

Looking 10 years into the future, the influence of China in the world will surpass that if the United States

60%

Source: Asia Pacific FoundaJon of Canada, “2010 NaJonal Opinion Poll: Canadian Views of Asia,” March 28, 2010. hhp://www.asiapacific.ca/sites/default/files/filefield/NaJonal_Opinion_Poll_2010.pdf

60

Canada’s PercepJon of Asia

61 Source: www.asiapacific.ca/pubicaMons#editorials



64 Source: 2014 NaMonal Opinion Poll: Canadian Views on Asia, Asia Pacific FoundaMon of Canada, 2014, p.8


66

Source: 2014 NaMonal Opinion Poll: Canadian Views on Asia, Asia Pacific FoundaMon of Canada, 2014, p.42




Hesitant to move away from the US on Energy Mahers


Source: Asia-‐Pacific FoundaMon, Canada’s Asia Challenge: Crea0ng Competence for the Next genera0on of Canadians, A Report of the Asian Competence Task Force, 2013, Box 2, p.13

Views of Asian PracJJoners on Canada’s Asian Competence

71

Source: Asia-‐Pacific FoundaMon, Canada’s Asia Challenge: Crea0ng Competence for the Next genera0on of Canadians, A Report of the Asian Competence Task Force, 2013, Graph 2, p.16

Canadian Support for Placing more Emphasis on Teaching about Asian

72

THERISEOFASIAANDCANADA’S RELATIONSWITHASIA · Motorvehicles,trailers,bicycles," motorcycles 11.67 Ores,slagandash 10.43 4 Ironorsteelarcles 3.96 Woodpulp;paperorpaperboard ... "

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