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Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

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  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    1/26Analyst: Ajoy mukherjee | [email protected]

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    2/26

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    Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    Agriculture is the engine of the Indias economic growth and the largest employer. Indithe W orlds second largest producer of food next to china. In the next 10 years the total fproduction in India is likely to double. India holds 179.90 million hectares which is second largest in the world. Agriculture sector is representing a share of around 14 per cof Gross Domestic Product (GDP) & 11% of Indias total export which reached US Billion during 2013-14 as compared US 25 Billion in 2012-13. India requires a robmodernised agricultural practices to ensure food security. The government has allowed per cent FDI under automatic route in storage and warehousing, including cold storages. per cent FDI is also permitted for development of seeds under the automatic route. Indnew stable government may give highest priority on agriculture. Govt. may take somefollowing initiative for this.

    To arrest the inflation which has been a major challenge for the new Government since it took chaFinance Minister announced several measures including advising the State Governments to de-list fruits vegetables from the Agriculture Produce Market Committees (APMC) Act.

    Government may install a Price Stabilisation Fund so that procurement and distribution at State level could

    improved.

    Govt. may take steps to enhance the profitability in agriculture, by ensuring a minimum of 50% profits othe cost of production.

    Increase public investment in agriculture & cheaper agriculture inputs and credit. Introducing latechnologies for farming and high yielding seeds.

    Govt. estimated increase in cash flow in sugar sector, following the export incentive scheme for raw subeing extended till September 2015.

    Cold storage capacity also needs to grow rapidly from the current level of 24 MT.

    Set up and endorse low water consuming irrigation techniques and optimum utilization of water resources.

    Set up the 'Organic Farming and Fertilizer Corporation of India', to promote organic farming and fertilizand provide incentives and support for marketing organic produce.

    Genetically Modified (GM) crops may be allowed with full scientific evaluation on its long-term effectssoil, production and biological impact on consumers.

    Govt. may plan urea price hike to control fertilizer subsidies.

    Govt. may increase the import duty on sugar.

    New stable govt. may reform a meaningful Minimum Support price (MSP).

    Agriculture Productive, Scientific ProsperinSector- Agriculture, Agrochemicals Sugar

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    Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    Government may provide a guaranteed assured monthly income for farmers.

    Marketing fruits and vegetables like milk. For a country which was able to build up an excellent markenetwork for one of the most perishable commodities -- milk govt. may take similar approach to providinviable marketing network for fruits and vegetables.

    Govt. may implement a comprehensive and an intensive soil testing programme across India and thereafformulate location specific measures to restore and improve soil health.

    New government may implement a farm insurance scheme to take care of crop loss due to unforeseen naturcalamities.

    The Government may develop a policy and research framework that is appropriate for the developmentagriculture in hilly and mountainous regions in different parts of India.

    New government may increase the subsidy on different fertilizer & sugar.

    Above measures are likely to benefit the following segments in Agriculture.Irrigation com paniesFertilizer com paniesSugar companiesSeed companiesWe have identified some of the companies which we believe is likely to outperformin the medium to long term. A brief of the same is mentioned below. We have alsorecommend ed some of them in Ou r Post Poll Theme Report dated May17, 2014, someof which have already appreciated significantly.

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    4/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    We rate Bayer Cropscience Ltd. a BU Y based on factors like companys outstanding range of pro& extensive service backup for modern in three business area Crop Protection, Bio-Science

    Environmental Science. The company has plans to reach leadership position in these areas in

    coming years with a substantial survival in 122 countries and 22000 dedicated employees.

    Investment H ighlightsN ew S table Go vernm ent to b ring r efor m s in Ag ricu ltur e: New stable Government maimplement to introduce the latest technology for farming & may take step to enhance th

    profitability in agriculture. Bayer Cropscience Ltd. has 17 branded products in crop protection. Th

    company offers an integrated portfolio of high quality seeds of Rice, Cotton, Pearl Millet, Corn

    Grain Sorghum, Mustard etc.

    Its a cash-rich Company: Bayer Cropscience is zero debt company for last three years withuge cash in hand. In current high interest rate system this conservative capital structure i

    advantage for the company, thus, helping in improving the bottom line.

    Bayer CropScience has a strong innovation pipeline: A strong innovation pipeline is expecteto bring in new protection 6 to 8 and Hybrid Seeds 13 to 14 products within the next two year

    The companys New integrated crop solutions Bayer Labhsutra significantly benefits farmer

    income.

    The companys manufacturing capacity is set to increase: The company has capacity tprocess and package more than 200 metric tons of high-quality seed per day, It is one of the to

    players in the country with four states Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu, karnataka, haryana and plan

    to develop production centers in others state. The company warehouses are located throughout th

    country.

    Bayer En vironmental Science : It is a non agriculture product division with pioneer in the fielof public health, being a major contributor in this segment. It is covering three major segmenVector control, Professional pest control, Green Industry. The comminment of this division is t

    consistently delever high quality research product for the control of insect pests of public healt

    like malaria vectors, cockroaches, rodents, termites, stored grain pests, house flies,

    Bayer CropscienceLimitedSector Agrochemicals Y

    Analyst: Ajoy Mukherjeemailto:[email protected]

    ter

    ter

    p%

    DII

    11.58%

    FII

    7.96%

    Non

    Institutions

    11.50%

    areholding

    ode 506285

    ode BAYERCROP

    berg Ticker BYRCS IN

    s Ticker BAYE.BO

    Value (INR) 10.00

    Share Capital (In INR Crs) 36.62

    ge P/E NA

    s Sensex 0.90

    ge Daily Volume 15,380

    nd Yield 0.3%

    Ratio NA

    STOCK SCAN

    91.66

    01.66

    11.66

    21.66

    31.66

    41.66

    17

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    014

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    Period

    CLOSE(Bayer CropScience Ltd) CLOSE(SENSEX)

    t Market Price (INR) 1,840.00

    Price 2,240.00

    (%) 21.7%

    ek High / Low (INR) 1939.00/1362.00

    Capitalization (In INR Crs) 6,737.90

    MARKET DATA

    Bayer Cropscience Limited Financial Performance-Standalone (In crores except per share data & )Particulars FY2012A FY2013A FY2014A FY2015E FY2016E

    Net Sales 2,317.80 2,725.30 3,245.20 3,657.00 4,206.00

    Growth (%) 7.22% 17.58% 19.08% 12.69% 15.01%

    EBITDA 298.00 326.96 361.16 477.00 564.00

    EBITDA Margins (%) 12.86% 12.00% 11.13% 13.04% 13.41%

    Net Profit 139.00 1,161.70 289.50 325.00 392.00

    Net Profit Margins (%) 6.00% 42.63% 8.92% 8.89% 9.32%

    Net Profit Growth (%) 5.38% 735.76% -75.08% 12.26% 20.62%

    EPS 35.19 294.10 75.14 88.75 107.05

    BVPS 200.68 488.94 476.03 556.85 661.25

    P/E 22.80 4.10 19.73 20.76 17.37

    P/BV 4.00 2.46 3.11 3.30 2.78

    RoE 18.97% 85.29% 16.61% 22.42% 17.36%

    EV/EBITDA 9.33 8.92 8.16 13.18 11.14

    Source: Bloomberg, Ace Equity, Microsec Research (EPS adjusted as per PAT)

    - 3 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    5/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    Businesses/Products

    ValuationThe stock is currently trading at INR1840.00. On FY16E expected EPS of INR107.05

    assigned a P/E multiple of 20.90x to arrive at a target price of INR2240.00 which show

    upside potential of 21.70 percent hence making the scrip an attractive buy.

    Key Concern Crop protection sales like pesticides, insecticides etc depend upon various factors lik

    monsoon and cropping conditions.

    Prices of Commodity also impact the usage of crop protection products. Several o

    these factors are beyond the control of the Companys long term.

    - 4 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    6/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    We rate BASF Ltd. a BUY based on factors like companys strong experienced managemhigh quality & innovative product range. BASF in India today has 9 production sites, 8

    offices and 2 R&D centers employing over 2,157 employees. BASF in India manufact

    polymers, tanning agents, leather chemicals and auxiliaries, crop protection chemitextile chemicals, dispersions and specialty chemicals, performance plastics, automotive

    coil coatings, construction chemicals, polystyrene and polyurethane systems.

    Investment H ighlightsNew Stable Government to bring major reforms in Agriculture: New stable Governmenmay implement to introduce the latest technology for farming & may take step t

    enhance the profitability in agriculture. BASF Ltd. has 11 solutions to solve its custome

    specific needs in this segment of business. The company may participate in this growt

    by increasing its manufacturing and working capital efficiency, adding capacity &

    introducing new innovative product & formulations. Above 25% of total revenue come

    from this segment of business.

    1 chemical company It i s uniquely positioned with broad market access, portfolio otechnologies and expertise. Innovations based on chemistry ding play the key role mainly

    in three areas, a) resources, environment & climate. B) Food & Nutrition. C) Quality o

    life.

    The companys diversified and huge product range: Companys businesss is related witseveral industries, it has about 5.000 customers around the world to rely on it

    comprehensive portfolio of intermediates - more than 600 chemical products tha

    company develops, produces and markets.

    The companys superior growth oportunities: Presently, the company has nine plantssales offices and 2 R&D centers employing over 2,157 employees. It has a plan t

    implement expansion project. It has quite a lot of new R&D products and formulation i

    its pipeline. The company will keep its feet in few new countries in coming years.Parent company has strong partnership companies in India as well as Overseas: Thcompany has established the partnership companies all over the world named Gazprom

    Statoil, Monsanto, Petronas, Shell, Sinopec Total.

    BASF LimitedSector Specialty Chem icals Y

    Analyst: Ajoy Mukherjeemailto:[email protected]

    oter

    d

    oter

    up

    3%

    DII

    5.65%

    FII

    0.86%

    Non

    Institutio

    ns

    20.16%

    areholding

    ode 500042

    ode BASF

    berg Ticker BASF IN

    s Ticker BASF.BO

    Value (INR) 10.00

    Share Capital (In INR Crs) 43.29

    e P/E 9.1x

    s Sensex 0.90

    e Daily Volume 32,616

    nd Yield 0.5%

    atio NA

    STOCK SCAN

    BASF India Limited Financial Performance-Standalone(In crores except per share data & )Particulars FY2012A FY2013A FY2014A FY2015E FY2016E

    Net Sales 3515.94 3,940.63 4,429.89 5,260.00 5,475.00

    Growth (%) 14.75% 12.08% 12.42% 18.74% 4.09%

    EBITDA 209.95 251.95 284.19 377.00 451.00

    EBITDA Margins (%) 5.97% 6.39% 6.42% 7.17% 8.24%

    Net Profit 100.86 114.08 127.87 160.00 186.00

    Net Profit Margins (%) 2.87% 2.89% 2.89% 3.04% 3.40%Net Profit Growth (%) 11.76% 13.11% 12.09% 25.13% 16.25%

    EPS 23.30 26.35 29.54 36.96 42.97

    BVPS 242.25 249.35 294.92 331.00 373.00

    P/E 21.53 21.94 28.93 23.62 20.30

    P/BV 2.07 2.32 2.89 2.64 2.34

    RoE 10.00% 10.72% 10.23% 12.40% 13.50%

    EV/EBITDA 10.85 11.17 11.74 10.34 8.64

    Source: Bloomberg, Ace Equity, Microsec Research (EPS adjusted as per PAT)

    t Market Price (INR) 874.00

    Price 1,058.00

    (%) 21.1%

    ek High / Low (INR) 913.90/490.00

    Capitalization (In INR Crs) 3,783.16

    MARKET DATA

    89.64

    99.64

    109.64

    119.64

    129.64

    139.64

    149.64

    159.64

    169.64

    25-Jun-2013

    25-Jul-2013

    25-Aug-2013

    25-Sep-2013

    25-Oct-2013

    25-Nov-2013

    25-Dec-2013

    25-Jan-2014

    25-Feb-2014

    25-Mar-2014

    25-Apr-2014

    25-May-2014

    Period

    CLOSE(BASF India Ltd) CLOSE(SENSEX)

    - 5 -

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    7/26

    - 7 -

    Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    We rate Atul Ltd. a BU Y based on factors like companys strong management, healthy business mwhich is adequate diversified and vast product range. Atul Ltd. has divided its portfolio of product

    41 groups. The product group are managed through 7 Businesses namely Aromatics, Bulk Chem

    Colors, Crop protection, Floras, pharmaceuticals and Polymers.

    Investment H ighlightsNew Stable Government to bring major reforms in Agriculture: New stable Governmenmay implement to introduce the latest technology for farming & may take step to enhance th

    profitability in agriculture. Atul Ltd. has 14 products and 44 formulations in this segment o

    business & above 35% of total revenue comes from this segment of business. The company ma

    participate in this growth by increasing its manufacturing and working capital efficiency, addin

    capacity & introducing new product & formulations.

    Strong Management: Lalbhai group is one of the oldest business houses in India. The knowlineage of Lalbhai family goes back 18 generations. Mr. Sunil Lalbhai has been the chairman of th

    board since 2007 and MD since 1984.

    The company is diversified and vast product range : Companys businesss is related with 2industries, which are Adhesives, Agriculture, Animal Feed, Automobile, Chemica

    Composites, Construction, Cosmetic, Defence, Dyestuff, Electrical and Electronics, Flavour an

    Fragrance, Food, Glass, Home Care, Horticulture, Hospitality, Paint and Coatings, Paper, Person

    Care, Pharmaceutical, Plastic, Polymer, Rubber, Soap and Detergent, Textile, Tyre.

    The companys manufactur ing capac ity set to expand: Presently, the company has threplants. One plant in Ankleshwar (Gujarat), second in Valsad Dist (Gujarat), and third in Than

    (Maharashtra). The company has a plans to implement expansion project. It has quite a lot of new

    products and formulation in its pipeline. The company will keep its feet in few new countries i

    coming years. Companys operating profit margin & net profit margin both are increasing year o

    year.

    Strong Subsidiary JV companies in India as well as Overseas: The company has establishethe subsidiary company in Brazil, China, UK & USA named Atul Brasil Quimicos Limitada, Atu

    China Ltd., Atul Europe Ltd., Atul USA Inc. The company has several Indian subsidiary compan

    as well by the help of these companies it serves about 4000 customer world-wide.

    Atul LimitedSector Specialty Chem icals Y

    Analyst: Ajoy Mukherjeemailto:[email protected]

    oterd

    oter

    up

    2%

    II

    5%

    FII

    1.45% Non

    Institutio

    ns

    41.69%

    Shareholding

    ode 500027

    Code ATULLTD

    berg Ticker ATLP IN

    rs Ticker ATLP.BO

    Value (INR) 10.00

    Share Capital (In INR Crs) 29.66

    ge P/E 9.1xs Sensex 0.92

    ge Daily Volume 142,147

    nd Yield 0.8%

    Ratio NA

    STOCK SCAN

    Period

    CLOSE(Atul Ltd) CLOSE(SENSEX)

    t Market Price (INR) 895.00

    Price 1,098.00

    (%) 22.7%

    ek High / Low (INR) 941.00/280.20

    Capitalization (In INR Crs) 2,654.73

    MARKET DATA

    Atul Limited Financial Performance (In crores except per share data & )Particulars FY2012A FY2013A FY2014A FY2015E FY2016E

    Net Sales 1,792.40 2,042.88 2,457.75 2,775.00 3,177.00

    Growth (%) 15.24% 13.97% 20.31% 12.91% 14.49%

    EBITDA 187.99 249.14 363.73 415.00 484.50

    EBITDA Margins (%) 10.49% 12.20% 14.80% 14.95% 15.25%

    Net Profit 91.10 119.77 219.19 262.00 308.00

    Net Profit Margins (%) 5.08% 5.86% 8.92% 9.44% 9.69%

    Net Profit Growth (%) 0.94% 31.47% 83.01% 19.53% 17.56%

    EPS 30.71 40.38 73.90 88.33 103.84

    BVPS 181.99 216.66 319.83 406.70 510.50

    P/E 6.23 7.50 12.18 10.19 8.69

    P/BV 1.05 1.40 2.81 2.20 1.75

    RoE 18.97% 21.66% 25.74% 24.32% 22.64%

    EV/EBITDA 4.33 4.69 8.16 8.19 7.52

    Source: Bloomberg, Ace Equity, Microsec Research (EPS adjusted as per PAT)

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    8/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    Businesses/ProductsAromatics Through this division company aims to be a world care business,offering its customer s in personal care and other chosen industries high qualityproducts & services. There are 37 products in this portfolio.

    Bulk Chemicals The Company has 26 products in this division and serving 205customers in 19 countries. It is the only & largest manufacturers of resorcinol in

    India. It is one of the largest manufacturers of 1, 3 Cyclohexanedione, Anisol,

    sulphur trioxide and Sulphur dioxide in India.

    C olor The Company is the one of the largest manufacturers of Vat dyes in theworld & largest manufacturers of Sulphur Black dyes in India. It is one of the

    leading manufacturers of speciality Acid, Direct Disperse, Reactive Dyes. It has a

    portfolio of 695 world-class product serving 324 customers in 40 countries.

    Crop Protection It has 76 world-class products in this portfolio & it is serving1469 customers in 29 countries. It is one of the largest manufactures of 2, 4-D Acid,

    2,4-D Sodium, 2, 4-D Amine 2,4-D Ester, Indoxacarb in India.F loras It is the largest producer of tissue cultured date palms in India. TheCompany is serving 68 customers in two countries with a portfolio of 22 world-

    class products.

    Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals business mainly comprises API intermediatesand a few APIs. There are 29 products. Products are used by customers belonging to

    pharma industry, under five broad therapeutic categories, namely Cardiovascular,

    anti-depressant, anti-diabetic, anti-infected, anti-retroviral.

    Polymers: It is one of the largest manufacturers of Epoxy hardeners and resins inIndia. These products are used by Aerospace, Automobile, Construction, Defence,

    Electronics, Wind Energy industries. The Business comprises about 457 products

    and formulations. It is serving 1032 customers in 18 countries.

    ValuationThe stock is currently trading at INR895. On FY16E expected EPS of INR103.85.

    assigned a P/E multiple of 10.60x to arrive at a target price of INR1098 which show

    upside potential of 22.70 percent, hence making the scrip an attractive buy.

    Key Concern More than 50% of the companys revenue derived from export, therefore, i

    profitability may get impacted by Rupee- Dollar fluctuations.

    The Company is doing business with mainly chemicals, price of some of the

    chemicals are cyclical remain low for long term.

    - 8 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    9/26Microsec Re5 June 2014

    Businesses ProductsAromatics Through this division company aims to be a world care business,offering its customer s in personal care and other chosen industries high qualityproducts & services. There are 37 products in this portfolio.

    Bulk Chemicals The Company has 26 products in this division and serving 205customers in 19 countries. It is the only & largest manufacturers of resorcinol in

    India. It is one of the largest manufacturers of 1, 3 Cyclohexanedione, Anisol,

    sulphur trioxide and Sulphur dioxide in India.

    C olor The Company is the one of the largest manufacturers of Vat dyes in theworld & largest manufacturers of Sulphur Black dyes in India. It is one of the

    leading manufacturers of speciality Acid, Direct Disperse, Reactive Dyes. It has a

    portfolio of 695 world-class product serving 324 customers in 40 countries.

    Crop Protection It has 76 world-class products in this portfolio & it is serving1469 customers in 29 countries. It is one of the largest manufactures of 2, 4-D Acid,

    2,4-D Sodium, 2, 4-D Amine 2,4-D Ester, Indoxacarb in India.F loras It is the largest producer of tissue cultured date palms in India. TheCompany is serving 68 customers in two countries with a portfolio of 22 world-

    class products.

    Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals business mainly comprises API intermediatesand a few APIs. There are 29 products. Products are used by customers belonging to

    pharma industry, under five broad therapeutic categories, namely Cardiovascular,

    anti-depressant, anti-diabetic, anti-infected, anti-retroviral.

    Polymers: It is one of the largest manufacturers of Epoxy hardeners and resins inIndia. These products are used by Aerospace, Automobile, Construction, Defence,

    Electronics, Wind Energy industries. The Business comprises about 457 products

    and formulations. It is serving 1032 customers in 18 countries.

    ValuationThe stock is currently trading at INR895. On FY16E expected EPS of INR103.85.

    assigned a P/E multiple of 10.60x to arrive at a target price of INR1098 which show

    upside potential of 22.70 percent, hence making the scrip an attractive buy.

    Key Concern More than 50% of the companys revenue derived from export, therefore, i

    profitability may get impacted by Rupee- Dollar fluctuations.

    The Company is doing business with mainly chemicals, price of some of the

    chemicals are cyclical remain low for long term.

    - 8 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    10/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    We rate UPL Ltd. a STRONG BUY based on factors like companys strong balance sheet, knowbased dynamic business model which is prominent for global as well as Indian market. UPL Ltd

    50+ products in its portfolio, which are exported to more than 120 countries in the world. UPL

    acquired 19 companies within last 20 years.

    Investment H ighlightsNew Stable Government reforms in Agriculture: New stable Government plans to introducthe latest technology for farming & may take step to enhance the profitability in agriculture. Th

    company holds 83 product patents in India and the world over. Along with this, company ha

    variety in its seeds portfolio like Sorghum, Oil Seeds, Rice, Corn, Cotton, vegetables.

    Company is specialized in dairy cattle feeding: By the help of 25 years research experiencCompany is present in cattle feeding worldwide with high Nutritional, high Digestible and hig

    palatable fodder crops. It is having special forage crops hybrid seeds for every fodder segment.

    Strong acquisition histroy : UPL Ltd. acquired 20 companies within last 20 years and has builstrong distribution channels. United Posphorus acquired MTM, based in UK in 1994, a companwith rich capabilities, deep presence in Europe and USA but a weak balance sheet. Within 1

    months, MTM reported a surplus. The most recent acquisition of DVA Agro in Brazil made

    possible for the company to enter the largest & fastest growing agrochemicals market in the world

    The companys increasing global business: As per companys Annual Report UPLs markshare in indian agrochemicals is above 17%. In USA, UPLs market share is 5% in agrochemica

    products. In Europe it is 3%. Companys exports accounts for 61% of total revenues, which h

    been increasing in every year with the help of 88 global subsidiaries. UPL Ltd. is twelfth large

    agrochemical company in the world.

    Ample capacity of manufacturing : The company has 23 manufacturing units across the worldWithin that 5 in India (4 in Gujarat & 1 in J&K). The company is extensively invested in variourelated initiatives. The Company also extended to the profitable use of its gross block with a vie

    to eliminate low yielding assets, engaging in judicious capex based on cost and payback tenure.

    UPL LimitedSector Agrochemicals Y

    Analyst: Ajoy Mukherjeemailto:[email protected]

    Promoter

    and

    Promoter

    Group

    29.81%

    DII

    80%

    FII

    46.77%

    Non

    Institutions

    16.55%

    GDR

    0.09%

    Shareholding

    ode 512070

    ode UPL

    berg Ticker UPLL IN

    s Ticker UNPO.BO

    alue (INR) 2.00

    Share Capital (In INR Crs) 85.72

    e P/E 9.6xs Sensex 0.97

    e Daily Volume 2,891,908

    d Yield 1.33%

    atio NA

    STOCK SCAN

    84.38104.38124.38144.38164.38184.38204.38224.38

    17-Jun-2013

    17-Jul-2013

    17-Aug-2013

    17-Sep-2013

    17-Oct-2013

    17-Nov-2013

    17-Dec-2013

    17-Jan-2014

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    Period

    CLOSE(UPL Ltd) CLOSE(SENSEX)

    t Market Price (INR) 323.00

    Price 421.00

    e (%) 30.3%

    ek High / Low (INR) 328.90/121.00

    t Capitalization (In INR Crs) 13,843.92

    MARKET DATA

    UPL Limited Financial Performance- (In crores except per share data & )Particulars FY2012A FY2013A FY2014A FY2015E FY2016E

    Net Sales 7,763.65 9,185.70 10,770.88 11,975.00 13,316.00

    Growth (%) 31.63% 18.32% 17.26% 11.18% 11.20%

    EBITDA 1,454.17 1,660.41 2,019.58 2,252.00 2,519.00

    EBITDA Margins (%) 18.73% 18.08% 18.75% 18.81% 18.92%

    Net Profit 600.69 774.60 949.79 1,167.00 1,348.00

    Net Profit Margins (%) 7.74% 8.43% 8.82% 9.75% 10.12%

    Net Profit Growth (%) 1.58% 28.95% 22.62% 22.87% 15.51%

    EPS 12.03 17.12 21.59 27.23 31.45

    BVPS 90.36 104.95 122.43 145.91 171.90

    P/E 10.81 6.70 8.52 11.56 10.01

    P/BV 1.44 1.12 1.50 2.07 1.76

    RoE 15.21% 16.80% 18.10% 19.94% 19.53%

    EV/EBITDA 5.98 4.50 4.81 6.64 5.93

    Source: Bloomberg, Ace Equity, Microsec Research (EPS adjusted as per PAT)

    - 9 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    11/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    Businesses/Products

    ValuationThe stock is currently trading at INR323.00. On FY16E expected EPS of INR31.45.

    assigned a P/E multiple of 13.40x to arrive at a target price of INR421.00 which show

    upside potential of 30.30 percent, hence making the scrip an attractive buy.

    Key Concern More than 60% of the companys revenue derived from export, therefore i

    profitability may get impacted by foreign currency fluctuation.

    The Agrochemicals industry is a highly regulated world, requiring registration wit

    respective governments. Changes in regulatory policy may impact company

    business.

    - 10 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    12/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    We rate PI Industries Ltd. a S TR O NG B UY . The company is one of the leader of manufacturinmarketing of agrochemicals, plant nutrients, specialty fertilizers & hybrid seeds. We are positive a

    the company based on trigger like companys strong marketing & distribution network in

    covering more than 40,000 retail points and over 9,000 distributors/ direct dealers. PIs strong brand equity across millions of Indian farmers is backed by a robust pipeline of product.

    Investment HighlightsNew Stable Government reforms in Agriculture: New stable Government may implement tintroduce the latest technology for farming & may take steps to enhance the profitability i

    agriculture. P I Industries Ltd. has 32 branded products in this segment of business. Company

    high growth potential of the existing and pipeline products of custom synthesis exports gives cle

    visibility of companys performance. This will be complemented by robust delivery from the ne

    operations, where capacities will get sufficiently increased in the coming years.

    Strengthening sustainability through Knowledge: Companys business is going througinvestment knowledge, research & competence. The company leverages its knowledge wha

    farmers needs to capitalize on opportunities faster and lead to strong product recall. Company

    knowledge helps moderate operating cost.

    Vast product portfolio strong pipeline : PI Industries leverages its strong research anmanufacturing capability by providing Custom Synthesis and CRAMS to MNC clients. Currently

    the company has enough order book position which provides revenue visibility in short-term

    long-term. Some of high selling patent product are BIOVITA GR, CRINA, CLUTCH

    COLFOS, COLR, FLUTON etc.

    Expansion Plans: Presently, the company has four plants. Two plant in Gujarat, one iRajashthan & one in J&K. The Company successfully commissioned a new manufacturing site i

    Jambusar, Gujarat for manufacturing agrochemicals, fine chemicals, pharma intermediates an

    other specialty chemicals.

    Healthy financials : Companys bottomline has been improving by reducing the debt which w187 crores in 2013 now it is 86 crores. There are significant increament in Fixed Asset, Investmen

    cash & cash equivalents. The Companys revenue grew by 27% CAGR in last five years and PA

    grew by 45% CAGR the same time.

    P I Industries LimitedSector Agrochemicals Y

    Analyst: Ajoy Mukherjeemailto:[email protected]

    oter

    d

    oter

    up

    7%

    DII

    5.30%FII

    19.81%

    Non

    Institutions

    16.31%

    Shareholding

    Code 523642

    Code PIIND

    berg Ticker PI IN

    rs Ticker PIIL.BO

    Value (INR) 1.00

    Share Capital (In INR Crs) 13.61

    ge P/E 24.2xs Sensex 0.61

    ge Daily Volume 151,986

    nd Yield 0.30%

    Ratio 0.69

    STOCK SCAN

    Period

    CLOSE(PI Industries Ltd) CLOSE(SENSEX)

    t Market Price (INR) 335.00

    Price 459.00

    e (%) 37.0%

    ek High / Low (INR) 344.00/120.00

    t Capitalization (In INR Crs) 4,559.65

    MARKET DATA

    P I Industries Limited Financial Performance- (In crores except per share data & )Particulars FY2012A FY2013A FY2014A FY2015E FY2016E

    Net Sales 962.02 1,159.63 1,595.54 1,959.30 2,396.40

    Growth (%) 19.95% 20.54% 37.59% 22.80% 22.31%

    EBITDA 150.05 189.15 304.76 343.60 434.50

    EBITDA Margins (%) 15.60% 16.31% 19.10% 17.54% 18.13%

    Net Profit 103.59 97.34 188.00 237.00 298.40

    Net Profit Margins (%) 10.77% 8.39% 11.78% 12.10% 12.45%

    Net Profit Growth (%) 59.12% -6.03% 93.14% 26.06% 25.91%

    EPS 8.30 7.65 13.84 17.41 21.92

    BVPS 25.75 39.05 51.02 65.22 83.87

    P/E 12.87 17.98 20.08 18.86 14.84

    P/BV 4.13 3.31 5.44 4.97 3.86

    RoE 39.38% 22.86% 27.06% 29.39% 28.68%

    EV/EBITDA 10.54 10.15 12.55 12.23 9.90

    Source: Bloomberg, Ace Equity, Microsec Research (EPS adjusted as per PAT)

    - 11 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    13/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    Businesses/Products/Brands

    ValuationThe stock is currently trading at INR335.00. On FY16E expected EPS of INR21.90.

    assigned a P/E multiple of 20.90x to arrive at a target price of INR459 which show

    upside potential of 37 percent, hence making the scrip an attractive buy.

    Key Concern Any significant changes in normal climatic conditions may affect the performanc

    of its business. The weather can also affect pest infestations and the demand an

    product mix for crop protection products.

    Significant variations in the cost as well as availability of raw materials and energ

    may impact companys financial bottom line.

    - 12 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    14/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    We rate Monsanto India Ltd. a BU Y based on factors like companys research based biotechnostrong parent & healthy business model with selective products. MIL mainly divided into

    divisions one agro chemicals & another is hybrid seeds. It ranks number 10 on Forbess list of

    world most innovative company.

    Investment H ighlightsNew Stable Government reforms in Agriculture: New stable Government may implement tintroduce the latest technology for farming & may take steps to enhance the profitability i

    agriculture. Monsanto Ltd. helps farmer by both side Seeds & traits and its productivity. Th

    company may participate in this growth by working capital efficiency, introducing new product &

    formulations.

    Zero Debt Company: MIL is zero debt company for last eight years. In current high interest ratsystem, its conservative capital structure is advantage for the company; and is also expected t

    improve the bottom line. MIL is also a regular dividend paying company.

    MIL - Sustainable yield intiat ive company : Companys businesss model is a commitment thelp farmers produce more and conserve more to improve farmers lives. It has project name

    SHARE thats mean Sustainable Harvest Agriculture, Resources, Envirnment. The Main moto othe project is Increase yield, Increase awareness, Field level demonstrtion, Capacity building

    Query reddresal service & inprove socio-iconomic level.

    Strong parent Company: MIL is a subsidiary of Monsanto, a USA based company, with 40facialities, fortune 500 MNC having existence in 66 countries. Monsanto Company is researc

    based corporation which spent Rs.7500.00 crores on R&D activities in FY 2012-13 roughly 9-12%

    of sales and one of the leading players in Genetically Modified Seed market. MIL benefits from

    parent companys global expertise in agrochemical and seeds segment as well new produ

    development initiatives.

    Selected key products: Companys key products are one Dekalb Maize Hybrid Seeds ansecond is Roundup - Glyphosate Herbicide for Weed Management. Farmers choosing maiz

    hybrid seeds have contributed in increasing maize production by approximately 93 per cent in th

    last 11 years (22.50 million tons in 2012-13 from 11.15 million tons in 2002-03). Roundup ipotential to save crop-yield loss by approxymately 30-35%. It saves farmer money & time. It can b

    used easily with minimal impact on soil fertility.

    Monsanto India LimitedSector Agro Chem icals Y

    Analyst: Ajoy Mukherjeemailto:[email protected]

    ode 524084

    ode MONSANTO

    berg Ticker MCHM IN

    s Ticker MNSN.BO

    Value (INR) 10.00

    Share Capital (In INR Crs) 17.26

    e P/E 16.2xs Sensex 0.55

    e Daily Volume 55,191

    nd Yield 2.0%

    atio NA

    STOCK SCAN

    oter

    d

    oter

    up

    4%

    DII

    2.48% FII

    0.25%

    NonInstitutio

    ns

    25.12%

    areholding

    t Market Price (INR) 2,222.00

    Price 2,672.00

    (%) 20.3%

    ek High / Low (INR) 2297.70/560.00

    Capitalization (In INR Crs) 3,835.78

    MARKET DATA

    95.01

    145.01

    195.01

    245.01

    295.01

    345.01

    25-Jun-2013

    25-Jul-2013

    25-Aug-2013

    25-Sep-2013

    25-Oct-2013

    25-Nov-2013

    25-Dec-2013

    25-Jan-2014

    25-Feb-2014

    25-Mar-2014

    25-Apr-2014

    25-May-2014

    Period

    CLOSE(Monsanto India Ltd) CLOSE(SENSEX)

    Monsanto India Limited Financial Performance -Standalone (In crores except per share data & )Particulars FY2012A FY2013A FY2014A FY2015E FY2016E

    Net Sales 389.06 442.42 581.84 717.00 843.90

    Growth (%) 4.60% 13.72% 31.51% 23.23% 17.70%

    EBITDA 70.16 69.65 145.12 185.90 234.00

    EBITDA Margins (%) 18.03% 15.74% 24.94% 25.93% 27.73%

    Net Profit 50.19 67.34 122.89 171.00 216.00

    Net Profit Margins (%) 12.90% 15.22% 21.12% 23.85% 25.60%

    Net Profit Growth (%) 17.18% 34.17% 82.49% 39.15% 26.32%

    EPS 29.08 39.01 71.19 99.06 125.12

    BVPS 222.71 236.05 199.57 299.70 425.90

    P/E 23.19 14.67 12.18 22.43 17.75

    P/BV 3.03 2.43 2.81 7.41 5.22

    RoE 13.23% 17.01% 25.74% 33.90% 32.50%

    EV/EBITDA 16.32 11.18 8.16 18.60 14.70

    Source: Bloomberg, Ace Equity, Microsec Research (EPS adjusted as per PAT)

    - 13 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    15/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    ValuationThe stock is currently trading at INR2222.00. On FY16E expected EPS of INR125.10

    assigned a P/E multiple of 21.35x to arrive at a target price of INR2672.00which show

    upside potential of 20.30 percent, hence making the scrip an attractive buy.

    Key Concern MIL is leading player in hybrid seeds in India and booking to take lead

    Genetically Modified (GM) seeds segment. Unfavorable Regulatory instruction on

    seeds may hamper the companys future growth.

    Sale of seeds and agrochemicals, both of the company products depends upon var

    factors like Irrigation, Monsoon Pattern, Demand and Pricing of Agricult

    commodities which are beyond control of the company.

    - 14 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    16/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    We rate Rallis India Ltd. a BU Y based on factors like companys parent management, huge custbased & compact agriculture business. Rallis India Ltd. has divided its 5 portfolio of product, S

    pesticides, fertilizers, Seed treatment Chemicals & household product. The Company expor

    around 50 countries in the world.

    Investment H ighlightsHuge client base: The Company provides Technical & Bulk of various molecules to leading Indibased MNCs & Indian Companies named Bayer Crop Science, P I Industries, Nagarjuna Agrichem

    Ltd., SDS Ramcides Crop Science Ltd. Hyderabad Chemicals Ltd., Excel Crop care Ltd. Cheminov

    India Ltd. Dhanuka Agritech Ltd., Coromandel International Ltd. & many more.

    Building sustaining relationship: Key strength of the company is building sustaininrelationship with farmer through initiatives such as Expansion andAggressiveGrowth througLeadership and Excellence (EAGLE), Rallis KisanKutumb (RKK). The Company has added number of value added services such as SMS alerts on crop prices, weather and possible diseas

    outbreak through Samrudh Krishiprogramme.

    Big positive support from its parent Tata groups companies: Rallis is not only institution itata group that is focussing on agriculture. Tata chemicals and the Tata Trusts also have active

    involved in improving the agriculture business.

    Acquisition of Metahelix Life Sciences: In Dec, 2010 the company has acquired Metahelix LifSciences, it has facilitated the company to increase the capability to develop high yeilding hybri

    seed varieties. After acquisition the seed company has started yeiding results. In 3 years th

    revenue of Metahelix has grown significantly and reached INR180 crores during 2013-14.

    Accelarating Plant Growth: Otherthan crop protection, the Company has been proactivelworking towards improving the quality of farm inputs. It has introduced a range of Specialt

    Nutrient products addressing the deficiencies of secondary and micronutrients in the soil witemphasis on sustainable agriculture and greener and cleaner products such as GEOGREEN, TATA

    BAHAAR, UPHAAR-RDS, GLUCO BATA which are the top selling brands.

    Ample manufacturing capacity strong pipeline : Presently, the company has eight factoriethree in Gujarat, three in Maharashtra, one in Andhra pradesh and one in Namil Nadu. Th

    company continues to focus on building a strong pipeline of every business segment.

    Rallis India LimitedSector Agrochemicals Y

    Analyst: Ajoy Mukherjeemailto:[email protected]

    oter

    nd

    oter

    oup

    09%

    DII

    6.35%

    FII

    13.75%

    Non

    Institutions

    29.80%

    Shareholding

    ode 500355

    Code RALLIS

    berg Ticker RALI IN

    rs Ticker RALI.BO

    Value (INR) 1.00

    Share Capital (In INR Crs) 19.45

    ge P/E 22.1xs Sensex 0.81

    ge Daily Volume 372,325

    nd Yield 1.19%

    Ratio 12.89

    STOCK SCAN

    91.92

    101.92

    111.92

    121.92

    131.92

    141.92

    151.92

    Period

    CLOSE(Rallis India Ltd) CLOSE(SENSEX)

    Rallis India Limited Financial Performance- (In crores except per share data & )Particulars FY2012A FY2013A FY2014A FY2015E FY2016E

    Net Sales 1,284.95 1,458.18 1,746.56 2,009.60 2,320.6

    Growth (%) 15.92% 13.48% 19.78% 15.06% 15.48

    EBITDA 212.46 210.57 261.28 269.90 335.9

    EBITDA Margins (%) 16.53% 14.44% 14.96% 13.43% 14.47

    Net Profit 100.69 119.02 151.87 189.90 227.5

    Net Profit Margins (%) 7.84% 8.16% 8.70% 9.45% 9.80

    Net Profit Growth (%) -20.36% 18.20% 27.60% 25.04% 19.80

    EPS 5.10 6.12 7.81 9.77 11.7

    BVPS 28.47 31.92 36.67 43.67 51.6

    P/E 23.81 18.85 22.13 23.02 19.2

    P/BV 4.27 3.61 4.68 5.15 4.3

    RoE 19.04% 20.24% 22.81% 23.94% 24.58

    EV/EBITDA 11.79 10.46 12.70 12.61 10.6

    Source: Bloomberg, Ace Equity, Microsec Research (EPS adjusted as per PAT)

    t Market Price (INR) 225.00

    Price 274.00

    e (%) 21.8%

    ek High / Low (INR) 232.35/124.90t Capitalization (In INR Crs) 4,375.55

    MARKET DATA

    - 15 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    17/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    Businesses/Products

    ValuationThe stock is currently trading at INR225.00. On FY16E expected EPS of INR11.70.

    assigned a P/E multiple of 23.45x to arrive at a target price of INR274.00 which show

    upside potential of 22 percent, hence making the scrip an attractive buy.

    Key Concern Around 30% of the companys revenue is derived from exports; therefore, i

    profitability may get impacted by exchange rate fluctuations between Dollar

    Rupee.

    The performance of the crop protection industry is dependent on monsoons, pe

    and disease incidences on crops. Major fluctuations in total rainfall and i

    distribution affect the crop acreages and overall productivity and have a direc

    correlation with sales.

    - 16 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    18/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    We rate Coromandel International Ltd. a BUY. With the up-coming government policieAgriculture sector likely to be implemented/ to be considered, we believe the company t

    benefitted. It is part of the INR243 Billion Murugappa Group. It is a second largest phosphate fert

    company in India. The Companys business segments are Fertilizers, Specialty Nutrients, Protection and Retail.

    Investment H ighlightsNew Stable Government reforms in Agriculture: New stable Government plans to introducthe latest technology for farming & may take step to enhance the profitability in agriculture. Th

    Company has vast products in this segment of business and strong pipeline of product.

    Strong performing subsidiaries and joint ventures companies: The Company has stronperforming subsidiaries and joint ventures for its various business initiatives. Some of those ar

    Sabero Organics Gujarat Ltd. (India & overseas), Liberty Phosphate Ltd.(India & Overseas), Parr

    Chemicals Ltd. (India & Overseas) and many more.

    Sufficient manufacturing capacity: Presently, the Company has seven manufacturing locationin India. It has been expanding the capacities and the plants are capable of producing differen

    grades of complex fertilisers including urea based grades. The Companys adequate infrastructur

    and storage facilities commensurate to the production capacities which help in managing volatilit

    in raw material prices and ensuring uninterrupted production

    Support of Retail business : The Company has over 600 retail outlet in rural retail business in thstates of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka through a chain set up in various parts of these State

    Each retail center has an average area of 2500 square feet with a catchment area of 30-40 village

    and about 5,000 farmer families.

    Coromandel International LimitedSector Fertilizer Y

    Analyst: Ajoy Mukherjeemailto:[email protected]

    nt Market Price (INR) 259.00

    Price 313.00

    e (%) 20.8%

    ek High / Low (INR) 280.00/162.40

    t Capitalization (In INR Crs) 7,334.41

    MARKET DATA

    terd

    ter

    up

    9%

    DII

    5.63%FII

    6.80%

    Non

    Institutions

    23.78%

    Shareholding

    ode 506395

    ode COROMANDEL

    berg Ticker CRIN IN

    s Ticker CORF.BO

    Value (INR) 1.00

    Share Capital (In INR Crs) 28.32

    e P/E 16.4x

    s Sensex 0.87

    e Daily Volume 141,543

    nd Yield 1.74%

    atio 0.52

    STOCK SCAN

    9.00

    9.00

    9.00

    9.00

    9.00

    9.00

    9.00

    9.00

    19

    -Jun-2

    013

    19

    -Jul-2013

    19

    -Aug-2

    013

    19

    -Sep-2

    013

    19

    -Oct-2013

    19

    -Nov-2

    013

    19

    -Dec-2

    013

    19

    -Jan-2

    014

    19

    -Feb

    -2014

    19

    -Mar-2014

    19

    -Apr-2014

    19

    -May-2

    014

    Period

    CLOSE(Coromandel International Ltd) CLOSE(SENSEX)

    Coromandel International Limited Financial Performance- (In crores except per share data & )Particulars FY2012A FY2013A FY2014A FY2015E FY2016E

    Net Sales 9,901.57 9,033.72 10,053.21 11,879.20 13,048.00

    Growth (%) 28.25% -8.76% 11.29% 18.16% 9.84%

    EBITDA 928.32 767.94 805.24 918.40 1,041.20

    EBITDA Margins (%) 9.38% 8.50% 8.01% 7.73% 7.98%

    Net Profit 638.79 431.99 356.54 558.40 684.80

    Net Profit Margins (%) 6.45% 4.78% 3.55% 4.70% 5.25%

    Net Profit Growth (%) -7.91% -32.37% -17.47% 56.62% 22.64%

    EPS 22.60 15.25 12.46 19.72 24.18

    BVPS 84.82 77.73 80.55 94.70 111.15

    P/E 12.61 12.14 17.81 13.21 10.79

    P/BV 3.36 2.38 2.75 2.73 2.33

    RoE 29.13% 18.87% 15.63% 21.81% 22.67%

    EV/EBITDA 8.84 9.13 9.30 8.27 7.10

    Source: Bloomberg, Ace Equity, Microsec Research (EPS adjusted as per PAR)

    - 17 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    19/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    Businesses/Products

    ValuationThe stock is currently trading at INR259.00 On FY16E expected EPS of INR24.20.

    assigned a P/E multiple of 12.95x to arrive at a target price of INR313.00 which show

    upside potential of 21 percent, hence making the scrip an attractive buy.

    Key Concern Volatility in the price of key raw materials & restriction on sale of some produc

    may impact the companys financials.

    Currency, Interest rate fluctuation may impact the profitability.

    - 18 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    20/26Microsec Re5 June 2014

    We rate Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd. a STRONG BUY based on triggers like up-coming government poon sugar sector, healthy growth in power export business. BHL is Indias largest sugar and Eth

    manufacturing company. Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd. has identified its Business Segments as S

    Distillery, and Power.

    Investment H ighlightsNew Stable Government expected to come out with new favorable policies for sugasector: New stable Government may implement to an estimated increase in cash flow, followinthe export incentive scheme for raw sugar in coming years which may be very positive moves fo

    the sugar companies as well as sugarcane farmers.

    Power generation is going substantially high : Presently company generating powethroughout all 14 sugar mills recording a growth of 48% on YOY. While most of the powe

    generated by BHL continued to be used captively, the surplus power was sold to the Uttar Pradesh

    State grid. The Company exported of power 97% more during the year as compare to previous yea

    New government may increase the cap of ethanol blending in petrol: New governmenmight increase cap of the quantum of ethanol blending in petrol. This move, if this happens, then

    expected to be constructive for the company as well as the sugar industry.

    Sufficient manufacturing capacity across all business segment: Company has 14 Sugar mil& 4 Distillery in Uttar Pradesh. It is Asias No 1 & Worlds No. 4 integrated sugar company. It h

    an aggregated sugarcane capacity of 136,000 tonnes crushed per day and alcohol distillatio

    capacity of 800 kilo liters per day.

    Bajaj Hindusthan LimitedSector Sugar Y

    Analyst: Ajoy Mukherjeemailto:[email protected]

    ode 500032

    ode BAJAJHIND

    berg Ticker BJH IN

    s Ticker BJHN.BO

    alue (INR) 1.00

    Share Capital (In INR Crs) 63.94

    e P/E 33.3xs Sensex 1.38

    e Daily Volume 3,497,878

    d Yield NA

    atio NA

    STOCK SCAN

    oterd

    oter

    up

    3%

    II

    0%

    FII

    3.19%

    Non

    Institutio

    ns

    36.39%

    Shareholding

    73.59

    93.59

    113.59

    133.59

    153.59

    173.59

    193.59

    Period

    CLOSE(Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd) CLOSE(SENSEX)

    t Market Price (INR) 30.65

    Price 53.00

    e (%) 72.9%

    ek High / Low (INR) 32.60/11.70

    t Capitalization (In INR Crs) 1,959.76

    MARKET DATA

    Bajaj Hindusthan Limited Financial Performance (In crores except per share data & )(Previous Year End September)Particulars FY2011A FY2012A FY2014A* FY2015E FY2016E

    Net Sales 5,195.35 4,344.06 6,645.36 5,319.68 5,735.00

    Growth (%) 51.88% -16.39% NA NA 7.81%

    EBITDA 1,016.14 457.05 (100.07) 1,063.94 1,175.68

    EBITDA Margins (%) 19.56% 10.52% -1.51% 20.00% 20.50%

    Net Profit 21.45 (276.67) (1,710.68) 135.12 149.11

    Net Profit Margins (%) 0.41% -6.37% -25.74% 2.54% 2.60%

    Net Profit Growth (%) -47.91% -1389.84% NA NA 10.35%

    EPS 0.94 (5.01) (23.98) 2.11 2.33

    BVPS 125.94 62.17 37.04 38.60 40.93

    P/E 41.05 NA NA 13.98 12.66

    P/BV 0.31 0.51 0.44 0.76 0.72

    RoE 0.75% -8.08% -72.22% 5.70% 6.29%

    EV/EBITDA 8.76 15.86 NA 6.11 5.53

    Source: Bloomberg, Ace Equity, Microsec Research * (18 Months) (EPS adjustes as per PAT)

    - 19 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    21/26Microsec Re5 June 2014

    Board of directors

    Businesses/Products

    ValuationThe stock is currently trading at INR30.65 on FY16E expected EPS of INR2.35. We assi

    a P/E multiple of 22.55x to arrive at a target price of INR53.00 which shows an up

    potential of 73.00 percent, hence making the scrip an attractive buy.

    Key Concern Business depends on the availability of sugarcane and any shortage of sugarcan

    may adversely affect operations. A variety of factors beyond the companys contrmay result in shortage of sugarcane in any period of time.

    The wholesale price of sugar has a significant impact on companys bottom line

    Like other agricultural commodities, sugar is subject to price fluctuations resultin

    from weather, natural disasters, domestic and foreign trade policies, shifts i

    supply and demand and other factors beyond control.

    - 20 -

  • 8/21/2019 Thematic Report@Agro Fertilizers

    22/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    We rate Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd. a STRONG BUY based on triggers like up-coming governpolicy on sugar sector, healthy growth in power generation and selling. Its allied business consi

    manufacturing and marketing of Ethyl Alcohol, Ethanol & Organic manure. Company has 11 fact

    located in Uttar Pradesh having an aggregate crushing capacity of 79,000 MT per day.

    Investment H ighlightsNew Stable Government may outcome some of favorable new policy for sugar sectoNew stable Government may implement to an estimated increase in cash flow, following th

    export incentive scheme for raw sugar in coming years. It will be very positive moves for the sug

    companies as well as sugarcane farmers.

    Low Debt Company compared to peers : Companys total debt is reducing year on yeaCompared with its competitors, it has lowest Debt/Equity ratio, which presently stands at 0.5

    This is expected to post better bottom-line in coming years.

    Technology driven company: The Company is using latest technology, machinery aninfrastructure. It has second largest sugarcane crushing capacity. It has dual-fuel power generatio

    facility & has ability to refine sugar during off season.

    H and y B us iness U nit for m anu factur ing & m ar keting in a ll i ts b us iness s eg m enCompany is fully integrated and has 11 Sugar mills & 3 Distillery in Uttar Pradesh. It does fu

    utilization of fixed assets. It has good mix of diversified customer. Company does maintai

    excellent relationship with farmers.

    Balrampur Chini Mills LimitedSector Sugar Y

    Analyst: Ajoy Mukherjeemailto:[email protected]

    ode 500038

    ode BALRAMCHIN

    berg Ticker BRCM IN

    s Ticker BACH.BO

    Value (INR) 1.00

    Share Capital (In INR Crs) 24.48

    ge P/E 1.2xs Sensex 1.09

    ge Daily Volume 879,217

    nd Yield 2.4%

    Ratio NA

    STOCK SCAN

    moternd

    moter

    oup

    84%

    %

    FII

    17.47%

    Non

    Institutions

    27.21%

    Shareholding

    Balrampur Chini Mills Limited Financial Performance (In crores except per share data & )Particulars FY2012A FY2013A FY2014A FY2015E FY2016E

    Net Sales 2,336.07 3,317.12 2,690.77 3,001.10 3,346.1

    Growth (%) -22.30% 42.00% -18.88% 11.53% 11.50%

    EBITDA 264.47 462.06 243.88 230.50 292.50

    EBITDA Margins (%) 11.32% 13.93% 9.06% 7.68% 8.74%

    Net Profit 0.41 161.27 8.46 79.77 92.02

    Net Profit Margins (%) 0.02% 4.86% 0.31% 2.66% 2.75%

    Net Profit Growth (%) -99.75% 39234.15% -94.75% 842.91% 15.35%

    EPS 0.02 6.60 0.35 3.26 3.76

    BVPS 49.56 53.82 49.68 54.78 56.79

    P/E NA 6.62 159.30 31.00 36.12

    P/BV 0.31 0.51 0.44 1.50 1.44

    RoE 0.30% 12.77% 0.70% 4.98% 4.22%

    EV/EBITDA 12.74 5.71 10.63 10.50 11.46

    Source: Bloomberg, Ace Equity, Microsec Research (EPS adjusted as per PAT)

    81.65101.65

    121.65

    141.65

    161.65

    181.65

    201.65

    19

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    Period

    CLOSE(Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd)

    CLOSE(SENSEX)

    nt Market Price (INR) 82.00

    Price 123.00

    e (%) 50.0%

    ek High / Low (INR) 88.00/34.60

    t Capitalization (In INR Crs) 2,007.69

    MARKET DATA

    - 21 -

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    23/26Microsec Re5 June, 2014

    Businesses/Products

    Valuation

    The stock is currently trading at INR82.00 On FY16E expected EPS of INR3.75.

    assigned a P/E multiple of 32.65x to arrive at a target price of INR123 which show

    upside potential of 50.00 percent hence making the scrip an attractive buy.

    Key Concern Business depends on the availability of sugarcane and any shortage of sugarcan

    may adversely affect operations. A variety of factors beyond the companys contr

    may lead to a shortage of sugarcane in any period of time.

    The wholesale price of sugar has a significant impact on companys bottom lin

    Like other agricultural commodities, sugar is subject to price fluctuations resultin

    from weather, natural disasters, domestic and foreign trade policies, shifts i

    supply and demand and other factors beyond control.

    - 22 -

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    Microsec Research: Phone No.: 91 33 66512121 Email: [email protected]

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    Microsec benchmark its Research and the same is updated on our website at www.microsec.in.

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    An amount of `1,00,000 invested individually in all 276 stocks ie, `2,76,00,000 investment as and

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