THE FUTURE OF THE FLEX THE FUTURE OF THE FLEX- FUEL VEHICLE IN THE U.S. Diana Ginnebaugh, PhD CEE Postdoctoral Scholar P t E Effi i C t Precourt Energy Efficiency Center Stanford University PEEC Transportation Seminar November 1, 2013
THE FUTURE OF THE FLEXTHE FUTURE OF THE FLEX-FUEL VEHICLE IN THE U.S.
Diana Ginnebaugh, PhD CEEPostdoctoral Scholar
P t E Effi i C tPrecourt Energy Efficiency CenterStanford University
PEEC Transportation SeminarNovember 1, 2013
Flex-Fuel VehiclesFlex Fuel VehiclesPoliciesAir Pollution RegulationAir Pollution Regulation
E85Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)“Blend Wall”, E15Corn vs Cellulosic ethanolCorn vs Cellulosic ethanolOther challenges
l
FLEX-FUEL VEHICLESPolicies
25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock
20%
ck) S
tock
15%
Ligh
t Tru
c
10%
LDV
(Car
+
5%
% o
f Tot
al L
0%
%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Year
Data from EIA
25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock
20%
ck) S
tock
15%
Ligh
t Tru
c
10%
LDV
(Car
+
5%
% o
f Tot
al L
0%
%
Hybrids
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Year
Data from EIA
25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock
20%
ck) S
tock
15%
Ligh
t Tru
c
10%
LDV
(Car
+
AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE
5%
% o
f Tot
al L (1.2 mpg CAFE
credit)
0%
%
Hybrids
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Year
Data from EIA
FFV CAFE Calculation Examplep
gasoline: 24.1 mpg
FFV E85: 17.6 mpg
FFV CAFE Calculation Examplep
gasoline: 24.1 mpg
FFV E85: 17.6 mpg
E85 = 17.6 mpg / 0.15 = 117.3 mpg
FFV CAFE Calculation Examplep
gasoline: 24.1 mpg
FFV E85: 17.6 mpg
E85 = 17.6 mpg / 0.15 = 117.3 mpg
Assume 50/50 use of gasoline/E85:
CAFE: 1/(0.5/24.1 + 0.5/117.2) = 40 mpgCAFE: 1/(0.5/24.1 + 0.5/117.2) 40 mpg
25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock
20%
ck) S
tock
15%
Ligh
t Tru
c
10%
LDV
(Car
+
AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE
5%
% o
f Tot
al L (1.2 mpg CAFE
credit)
0%
%
Hybrids
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992
(federal fleets) Data from EIA
25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock
20%
ck) S
tock
15%
Ligh
t Tru
c
10%
LDV
(Car
+
AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE
5%
% o
f Tot
al L (1.2 mpg CAFE
credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)
0%
%
)
Hybrids
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992
(federal fleets) Data from EIA
25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock
20%
ck) S
tock
15%
Ligh
t Tru
c
EISA 2007
10%
LDV
(Car
+
AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE
(1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014,
declining to 2019)
5%
% o
f Tot
al L (1.2 mpg CAFE
credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)
2019)
0%
%
)
Hybrids
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992
(federal fleets) Data from EIA
25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock
20%
ck) S
tock AEO 2010
15%
Ligh
t Tru
c
EISA 2007
10%
LDV
(Car
+
AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE
(1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014,
declining to 2019)
5%
% o
f Tot
al L (1.2 mpg CAFE
credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)
2019)
0%
%
)
Hybrids
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992
(federal fleets) Data from EIA
25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock
20%
ck) S
tock AEO 2010
AEO 2011
15%
Ligh
t Tru
c
EISA 2007
10%
LDV
(Car
+
AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE
(1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014,
declining to 2019)
5%
% o
f Tot
al L (1.2 mpg CAFE
credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)
2019)
0%
%
)
Hybrids
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992
(federal fleets) Data from EIA
25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock
20%
ck) S
tock AEO 2010
AEO 2011
15%
Ligh
t Tru
c
EISA 2007
10%
LDV
(Car
+
AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE
(1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014,
declining to 2019)
5%
% o
f Tot
al L (1.2 mpg CAFE
credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)
CAFE and EPA GHG credits (require alt
f l
2019)
0%
%
)
Hybrids
fuel use)
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992
(federal fleets) Data from EIA
CAFE and EPA GHG CreditsGHG credits (MY 2015 - )
100% gasoline OR actual usage of E85no cap
CAFE Credits (MY 2020 -)100% gasoline OR actual usage of E850.15 divisor to encourage dual fuel vehicle productionno cap
Why Emphasis on Actual Usage?Why Emphasis on Actual Usage?
2011:- 10 million flex-fuel vehicles- ~ 1 million of those used E85
Data from EIA
Annual Ethanol Consumption in the U Sthe U.S.
E85117 million gallons
*ethanol is listed as gasoline-equivalent gallons
<1%
Gasoline122 billion gallons
93%E10
7 billion93%Ethanol
7 billion gallons7%
9.6% Ethanol (by volume)
(2011 data, from EIA 2013)
FFV CAFE Calculation Examplep
gasoline: 24.1 mpg
FFV E85: 17.6 mpg
E85 = 17.6 mpg / 0.15 = 117.3 mpg
up to MY 2019 (50/50):
CAFE: 1/(0.5/24.1 + 0.5/117.2) = 40 mpgCAFE: 1/(0.5/24.1 + 0.5/117.2) 40 mpg
MY 2020 and beyond (actual usage): CAFE /( / / ) 6CAFE: 1/(0.9/24.1 + 0.1/117.2) = 26 mpg
25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock
20%
ck) S
tock AEO 2010
AEO 2011
15%
Ligh
t Tru
c
AEO 2012EISA 2007
10%
LDV
(Car
+
AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE
AEO 2012(1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014,
declining to 2019)
5%
% o
f Tot
al L (1.2 mpg CAFE
credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)
CAFE and EPA GHG credits (require alt
f l
2019)
0%
%
)
Hybrids
fuel use)
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992
(federal fleets) Data from EIA
25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock
20%
ck) S
tock AEO 2010
AEO 2011
15%
Ligh
t Tru
c
AEO 2012EISA 2007
10%
LDV
(Car
+
AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE
AEO 2012
AEO 2013
(1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014,
declining to 2019)
5%
% o
f Tot
al L (1.2 mpg CAFE
credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)
AEO 2013
CAFE and EPA GHG credits (require alt
f l
2019)
0%
%
)
Hybrids
fuel use)
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992
(federal fleets) Data from EIA
h d h
FLEX-FUEL VEHICLESWho uses FFV CAFE credits? How much?
1800 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Sales
1400
1600
nds) Flex-Fuel Light Duty Trucks
1200
es (t
hous
an Flex-Fuel Cars
800
1000
ehic
le S
ale
400
600
lex-
Fuel
Ve
200
400F
0'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Data from EIA
12 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Stock
10
ns)
8
ock
(mill
io
Flex-Fuel Light Duty Trucks
6
Vehi
cle
Sto Flex-Fuel Cars
4
Flex
-Fue
l V
2
0'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Data from EIA
4us
Usage of AMFA credits for Domestic Passenger Cars
3
3.5
MFA
min
u
Chrysler
Daimler Chrysler
2.5
E w
ith
AM
E)
Ford
GM
Nissan
1.5
2
mpg
, CA
FCA
F ssa
Toyota
1
fere
nce
(m
0
0.5
6 8
Diff
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year
Data from NHTSA
Fraction of CAFE standard, without AMFA (FFV), for Domestic Cars
1.4
1.6
Domestic Cars
1
1.2
4
6
0.8
1
Frac
tion
Chrysler Daimler Chrysler
0.4
0.6Chrysler Daimler Chrysler
Ford GM
Nissan Toyota
0
0.2
6 82000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year
Data from NHTSA
Fraction of CAFE standard, with AMFA (FFV), for Domestic Cars
1.4
1.6
Domestic Cars
1
1.2
4
6
0.8
1
Frac
tion
Chrysler Daimler Chrysler
0.4
0.6 Chrysler Daimler Chrysler
Ford GM
Nissan Toyota
0
0.2
6 82000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year
Data from NHTSA
8
9us
Usage of AMFA credits for Light Trucks
7
8
MFA
min
u
Chrysler
5
6
E w
ith
AM
E)
Daimler
Daimler Chrysler
Ford
3
4
mpg
, CA
FCA
F
GM
Nissan
2
3
fere
nce
(m Toyota
0
1
6 8
Diff
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year
Data from NHTSA
Fraction of CAFE standard, without AMFA (FFV), for Light Trucks
1.2
Light Trucks
0.8
1
Chrysler
0.6
Frac
tion
Daimler
Daimler Chrysler
Ford
0 2
0.4Ford
GM
Nissan
0
0.2
6 8
Toyota
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year
Data from NHTSA
Fraction of CAFE standard, with AMFA (FFV), for Light Trucks
1.2
Light Trucks
0.8
1
Chrysler
0.6
Frac
tion
Daimler
Daimler Chrysler
Ford
0 2
0.4Ford
GM
Nissan
0
0.2
6 8
Toyota
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year
Data from NHTSA
d d
FLEX-FUEL VEHICLESEmission Standards
Air Pollution ScoresAir Pollution Scores
Score US EPA Tier 2 CARB LEV IIScore US EPA Tier 2 CARB LEV II10 Bin 1 ZEV9 xx PZEV98 Bin 2 SULEV II7 Bin 3 xx6 Bin 4 ULEV II6 Bin 4 ULEV II5 Bin 5 LEV II4 Bin 6 LEV II opt 1p3 Bin 7 xx2 Bin 8 SULEV II lg trucks1 xx ULEV & LEV II lg trucks1 xx ULEV & LEV II lg trucks
Flex-Fuel Vehicle Emissions StandardsStandards
Tier 2 (2004-2009 phase in, use now)gasoline (E0) - FTP, cold CO, highway, SFTP (aggressive highway, A/C)85 h hE85 – FTP, highway
Bin 5 = fleet avg requirements
C ( h h )CARB LEV II (2004 – 2010 phase in, use thru 2019)FTP, SFTP, Evap (w E10?)f f ffleet average NMOG less than half federal allowed NMOG fleet average (bin 5)FTP at 50F NMOG and HCHOFTP at 50F, NMOG and HCHO
Vapor Pressure of Ethanol/Gasoline BlendsEthanol/Gasoline Blends
E5 E1080 E5 E10
60
70
(kP
a)
Gasoline (E0)
40
50
ress
ure
( Gasoline (E0)
E8520
30
Vap
or P
r
E85
0
10
V
(data from Furey 1985)
0 20 40 60 80 100% Ethanol in Fuel
Flex-Fuel Vehicle Emissions StandardsStandards
Tier 2 (2004-2009 phase in, use now)gasoline (E0) - FTP, cold CO, highway, SFTP (aggressive highway, A/C)85 h hE85 – FTP, highway
Bin 5 = fleet avg requirements
C ( h h )CARB LEV II (2004 – 2010 phase in, use thru 2019)FTP, SFTP, Evap (w E10?)f f ffleet average NMOG less than half federal allowed NMOG fleet average (bin 5)FTP at 50F NMOG and HCHOFTP at 50F, NMOG and HCHO
LEV II 50F Emission StandardsLEV II 50F Emission Standards“All LEV II light- and medium-duty LEVs, ULEV d SULEV t d t tULEVs, and SULEVs must demonstrate compliance with the following exhaust emission standards for NMOG andemission standards for NMOG and formaldehyde (HCHO) measured on the FTP (40 CFR Part 86 Subpart B) conducted at a(40 CFR, Part 86, Subpart B) conducted at a nominal test temperature of 50°F…”
OEM pick 3 PC/LDT and 3 MDV to meet standard for each MY (typically new models)standard for each MY (typically new models)
From CARB
California+California+
N J ONew JerseyConnecticut
h
OregonArizona
lWashingtonVermont
PennsylvaniaMaryland
New YorkMaine
Florida (2013)New Mexico (2016)
Rhode IslandMassachusetts
d d
DO THEY LIMIT FLEX-FUEL CARB Emission Standards
VEHICLE MODEL AVAILABILITY?
CA Standards Restrict FFV Sales?YesYes
Minnesota evaluation of California Vehicle Emission Standards in 2009
“reject because it will limit FFV availability in the state”in 2008 DOE presentation, GM expressed concern about California 50F tests for FFVsCalifornia 50F tests for FFVsSome models are not available in FFV in California+
some are only offered as FFV in Midwest, only as gasoline in C lif iCalifornia+
NoFlorida adopting California GHG rules (for 2013 or later)Florida adopting California GHG rules (for 2013 or later)
“although a select few FFV have difficulty certifying to SULEV, there are existing, well-known technologies to make FFV that can certify as SULEV (such as direct fuel injection)…”FFV that can certify as SULEV (such as direct fuel injection)…fleet average – manufacturers decide how to meet it
14% % Flex-Fuel Vehicle Models of Total ModelsOffered by Model Year
10%
12%
ed
8%
10%
dels
Off
ere
6%
FV o
f Mod
2%
4%
%FF Federal
California+
0%
2%
6 8
Data from EPA
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Model Year
6
180 Number of Flex-Fuel Vehicle Models Offered by Model Year
140
160
ffer
ed
100
120
Mod
els O
f
60
80
r of F
FV M
40
60
Num
be Federal
California+
0
20
6 82004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Model Year
Data from EPA
9
10 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Average Tier 2 Bins by Model Year
8
9
6
7
Bin
4
5
Teir
2
Federal
2
3 Federal
California+
0
1
6 8
Full phase-in Tier 2, LEV II
Data from EPA
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Model Year
States with CARB Standards
Rank StateNumber of FFV per
1000 vehicles18 OR 4.1719 WA 4.1529 NJ 3 3129 NJ 3.3132 RI 3.0836 CT 2.7039 CA 2.5642 NY 2.3843 PA 2.2544 ME 2.2148 MA 1 3048 MA 1.3050 VT 0.36
Data from OHPI, FHWA
States with CARB Standards
Rank StateNumber of FFV per
1000 vehicles18 OR 4.1719 WA 4.1529 NJ 3 3129 NJ 3.3132 RI 3.0836 CT 2.70Average Ranking 3639 CA 2.5642 NY 2.38
Average Ranking: 36
43 PA 2.2544 ME 2.2148 MA 1 3048 MA 1.3050 VT 0.36
Data from OHPI, FHWA
Midwest
Rank StateNumber of FFV
per 1000 vehicles3 SD 8 883 SD 8.886 ND 6.74
15 MO 5.0620 MN 3.9825 IL 3.8127 NE 3 4727 NE 3.4728 IA 3.3833 MI 2.8934 KS 2.8835 WI 2.7237 OH 2 6037 OH 2.6045 IN 2.19
Data from OHPI, FHWA
Midwest
Rank StateNumber of FFV
per 1000 vehicles3 SD 8 883 SD 8.886 ND 6.74
15 MO 5.0620 MN 3.9825 IL 3.8127 NE 3 47Average Ranking 2627 NE 3.4728 IA 3.3833 MI 2.89
Average Ranking: 26
34 KS 2.8835 WI 2.7237 OH 2 6037 OH 2.6045 IN 2.19
Data from OHPI, FHWA
d d
DO THEY LIMIT FLEX-FUEL Future Emission Standards
VEHICLE MODEL AVAILABILITY?
New Flex-Fuel Vehicle Emissions StandardsStandards
Tier 3 (2017-2025 phase-in)NMOG+NOxgasoline (E15?) – FTP, cold CO, highway, SFTP, PM, evapevapE85 – FTP, highway, SFTP from 68F to 86Fhighest bin = bin 5 from Tier 2g 5fleet avg bin = bin 2 from Tier 2 (2025)
CARB LEV III (2015-2020 phase-in, thru 2025)Tier 3 is based on LEV IIIzero evap standard w E10
f f fcold T test 50F, not on gasoline for flex-fuel
12 Tier 2 Bin Level for all Certified FFV Models
10
8
n Le
vel
Tier 3
4
6
Tier
2 B
in Tier 3 limit
2
4
FederalBubble sizes = number of models
Tier 3 avg
06 8
Federal
CaliforniaBubble sizes = number of models
offered in that bin2025
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year
Data from EPA
Air PollutionEthanol (E85) and gasoline both increase air pollution
Ethanol (E85) may increase ozone significantly at cold temperatures
Al f l i (PAN)Also a concern for peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN), formaldehyde (HCHO), and acetaldehyde (CH3CHO)
h h ld h l b
FATE OF FLEX-FUEL VEHICLESWhat should the policy be?
Some thoughtsSome thoughts…wasted fuel due to inefficient vehicles
f l h l f dconsumer fuel cost vs vehicle cost for increased efficiencyenergy securityenergy security
not actually using E85th l b fi i l d t i t l?ethanol – beneficial or detrimental?
climate changei ll i (b il)air pollution (brazil)
energy securityf d f f lfood for fuel
Future of Flex-Fuel VehiclesFuture of Flex Fuel Vehicles
P li i i FFV b i h dPolicies encouraging FFV being phased outAir pollution standards may be a challengeOther ways to meet CAFE and GHG standards (EV, PHEV, HEV)
which also help meeting air pollution standards
Ethanol’s future is uncertain
d
HOW GHG CREDITS ARE GOING…An Aside
Fleet Average CO2 Emissions vs Standard for Passenger Cars (CA and US)
300
350
mi)
250
3
sion
s (g
/m
150
200
CO2
Emis
s
Standard Honda - CAMazda - CA Mitsubishi - CA
100
150
Ave
rage
C
VW - CA Chrysler - USFord - US GM - USNissan - US Subaru - US
50Flee
t A Suzuki - US Tesla - USToyota - US Volvo - US
02009 2010 2011
Data from EPA
Fleet Average CO2 Emissions vs Standard for Passenger Cars (Not California plus)
300
350
mi)
250
3
sion
s (g
/m
Standard
150
200
CO2
Emis
s
BMW
Honda
Mazda
100
150
Ave
rage
C Mazda
Mitsubishi
VW
50Flee
t A
02009 2010 2011
Data from EPA
Warm Temperature Case350 Gasoline (no fog)
300
m3 )
Gaso e ( o og)Gasoline (fog) E85 (no fog)E85 (fog)
200
250
+ a)
(μg/
E85 (fog)
150
200
one
(g +
100
Tota
l Oz
Fog
0
50T Fog
60
6:00 AM 6:00 PM 6:00 AM 6:00 PM 6:00 AMTime of Day
Cold Temperature Case350
G li ( f )
300
m3 )
Gasoline (no fog) Gasoline (fog)E85 (no fog)
200
250
+ a)
(μg/ E85 (fog)
150
200
one
(g +
100
Tota
l Oz
Fog
0
50T Fog
61
6:00 AM 6:00 PM 6:00 AM 6:00 PM 6:00 AMTime of Day