The WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE on flood forecasting in the Alps Authors: Arpagaus, Dorninger, Hegg, Montani, Ranzi, Rotach Presentation: Saskia Willemse, MeteoSwiss Technical Conference preceding CAS XV 16-17 November 2009, Incheon, South Korea
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The WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE on flood forecasting in the Alps
The WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE on flood forecasting in the Alps. Authors: Arpagaus, Dorninger, Hegg, Montani, Ranzi, Rotach Presentation: Saskia Willemse, MeteoSwiss. Technical Conference preceding CAS XV 16-17 November 2009, Incheon, South Korea. Outline. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE on flood
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Outline
• D-PHASE essentials• Key elements and characteristics• Achievements and outreach• Lessons learned & future developments
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
D-PHASE essentials
• Forecast Demonstration Project for MAP
• 2nd WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP)
• Focus on heavy precipitation and flood forecasting
• D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
• D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP): June to November 2007 (COPS & “MAP season”)
• 9 countries involved
• 30 atmospheric models / 7 hydrological models in over 40 catchments
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system
Medium range
Short range
Now-casting
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Key elements of D-PHASE
• Centralised Visualisation Platform (forecasts & alerts; in real-time);
• Data archiving ( COPS);
• Nowcasting tools;
• Systematic integration of end users;
• Evaluation, objective and subjective.
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
8.8.2007, ~ 15:00 local time
Overview: Is there any alert? Where?
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
8.8.2007, ~ 15:00 local time
More details: Which models alert?
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Key characteristics of D-PHASE
• Same look and feel for all models (colour coding etc.) joint alert definitions same script to determine alerts same programs for plots
• Full information is provided to the end user; the diversity of forecasts is visible
• Hierarchical layout allowing to zoom in –from an overview to the details
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
8.8.2007, ~ 15:00 local time
Same plots (variables, colour coding, …) for all models
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Achievements
• Unprecedented data set model intercomparison / validation process studies (with COPS) test beds (COST 731 for Data Assimilation, HEPEX) Integrated Mesoscale Research Environment (WG MWFR)
• Demonstration of operational coupling of hydrological and meteorological models
JDC = Joint D-PHASE/COPS Verification data set
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Achievements• Participation of users
45 end users institutions (civil protection ...) workshops & questionnaires feedback exchange of needs
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Achievements
• Findings high resolution atmospheric
models prove better importance of ensemble
modelling Single-model ensemble
substantially gains from calibration
value of ‘ensemble observations’ (radar ensemble)
resolved conv.param. conv.
Rel
ativ
e va
lue
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Outreach
• D-PHASE/COPS data set as testbed for COST / HEPEX, IMRE
• D-PHASE as role model for Swiss natural hazards platform (GIN) VP still up and running until GIN goes life….
• Many operational hydrological services started to use model-based input (I, CH, D)
• Funded research projects Priority Programme QPF (several) FP7 Imprints Austrian Science Foundation (VERITA) FOEN, Switzerland Univ Hamburg funding
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
End users feedback• Resolution needs to further increase (and will)• Take end users early on board• EPS’s need careful support (for interpretation)• ‘Ensemble thinking’ for air pollution modelling, heat wave
warnings, health impact (e.g., pollen), …
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Interoperability• International agreements needed (procedures, thresholds)
• Multi-model availability by far exceeds multi-model use…
• In the transformation to operations the commercial value of meteorological data is a barrier
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Future FDP‘s• Finances• Ways of dissemination within WMO / member countries• ‘increase involvement of users and NMHSs from
developing countries in future FDP’s...’• Themes / activity: WWRP could also propose themes
MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)