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The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL
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The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Jan 03, 2016

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Page 1: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid

BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL

Page 2: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Premise

Does the World Bank take regime-type into account when allocating disaster-relief aid?

Page 3: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

The World Bank and Humanitarian Aid•“End extreme poverty and promote shared prosperity”• Official World Bank goals

•Help states in need• Reconstruction emphasis

•$20 Million to Yemen after 1996 flooding

•$62 Million to the Philippines after 2013 Typhoon Haiyan

Devastation after Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippineshttp://climatedesk.org/2013/11/natural-disasters-cost-3-8-trillion-since-1980-world-bank-says/

Page 4: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Hypothesis

Democracies (regime-type) receive foreign aid from the World Bank more frequently than autocracies.

•Introduction of a second dependent variable:Amount of aid included in programs

Page 5: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Hypothesis

Democracies (regime-type) receive foreign aid from the World Bank more frequently and in higher

amounts than autocracies.

Page 6: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Variables

X: Regime-Type of Country

Y1: Frequency of response to

emergency crises

Y2: Size of aid grants given in response

Page 7: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Literature Review• Flores and Smith (2012)

• Disasters have the most destabilizing effect on autocracies

• Boussalis (2011)• Autocracies respond less effectively to

disasters

• Becerra, Cavallo, and Noy (2012)• Regime type does not affect allocation of

foreign humanitarian aid in the UN

• What about in the World Bank?

Page 8: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Regime-Type DataPrzeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub, and Limongi (2000) Democracy and Development

Regime-Type is measured by a countries adherence to 3 rules:

• Rule 1: The chief executive must be elected• Rule 2: The legislature must be elected• Rule 3: There must be more than one party

Page 9: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Emergency Crisis DataEM-DAT: The International Disaster Database•Contains all disasters, separated by country affected, from 1900-2014

•“Disaster” defined by one or more of the following:• 10 or more people reported killed.• 100 or more people reported affected.• Declaration of a state of emergency.• Call for international assistance.

•Allows limiting data to country-years of disaster

Page 10: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

World Bank Disbursement Data AidData Database•Grants provided by the World Bank categorized for emergency aid or disaster relief purposes• 597 programs offered from 1946 to 2008

•Merged with the EM-DAT database to show which country-years of disaster the World Bank responded to with a program

Page 11: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

MethodologyINDEPENDENT VARIABLE

Regime TypeDichotomous indicator. Coded for whether a country is a democracy or autocracy

DEPENDENT VARIABLES

Frequency of ResponseDichotomous indicator. Coded for whether a country received a program or did not.

Unit of Country-Years

Amount of Aid Constant 2011 USD

Page 12: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

MethodologyControl Variables:

Geographical Position

Severity of Disaster GDP per capita Population

Page 13: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Case Studies: Egypt and Albania

Page 14: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Case Studies: Egypt and Albania•Notably high amount of disasters from 2000 to 2006• Not one World Bank program

•Low amount of disasters from 1999 to 2008• Multiple World Bank programs starting in 2003

•Effect of European Union’s 2003 statement identifying Albania as a potential candidate to join the Union?

Page 15: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Preliminary Results

Autocracy Democracyn=2255 n=2155

St. Dev. 0.3107068 St. Dev. 0.3263351

0.1

0.105

0.11

0.115

0.12

0.125

0.108204

0.1211137

Graph 1: World Bank Response By Regime

Regime Type

Mea

n Re

spon

se

Autocracy Democracyn=244 n=261

St. Dev. 388000000 St. Dev. 426000000

0.00E+00

5.00E+07

1.00E+08

1.50E+08

2.00E+08

2.50E+08

3.00E+08

1.88E+08

2.53E+08

Graph 2: World Bank Relief Aid Amount By Regime

Regime Type

Mea

n Ai

d Am

ount

(201

1 US

D)

Suggests democracies receive programs more often and with larger values

Page 16: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Results: Frequency of Response

Page 17: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Results: Amount of Aid

Page 18: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Conclusions

There is a statistically significant relationship between the frequency of disaster-relief aid from the World Bank and regime-type.

The World Bank gives more disaster-relief programs to democracies than autocracies.

Page 19: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Implications•Citizens of autocracies receive less help

•Democracies are better able to handle disasters (Smith)o Using aid dollars more effectively

•Control of the World Bank lends itself to a democratic bloco Leadership, decision-making

•Does the World Bank advocate for democracy?

•Further research required:o Similar organizations

Page 20: The World Bank: Regime-type and Emergency Aid BY: ASHWIN PURI AND ZACKARY ABU-AKEEL.

Questions?