Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: 76301-CI INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED PARTIAL RISK GUARANTEE IN THE AMOUNT OF US$60 MILLION IN SUPPORT OF THE GAS SUPPLY AND PURCHASE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE BLOCK CI-27 JOINT VENTURE PARTNERS AND THE REPUBLIC OF CÔTE D’IVOIRE FOR THE BLOCK CI-27 GAS FIELD EXPANSION PROJECT May 20, 2013 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
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Document of
The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No: 76301-CI
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT
ON A
PROPOSED PARTIAL RISK GUARANTEE
IN THE AMOUNT OF US$60 MILLION
IN SUPPORT OF
THE GAS SUPPLY AND PURCHASE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE BLOCK CI-27 JOINT
VENTURE PARTNERS AND THE REPUBLIC OF CÔTE D’IVOIRE
FOR THE
BLOCK CI-27 GAS FIELD EXPANSION PROJECT
May 20, 2013
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the
performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World
Bank authorization.
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
(Exchange Rate Effective May 16, 2013)
Currency Unit = FCFA
FCFA 510 = US$1
FISCAL YEAR
January 1 – December 31
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
ANARE Agence Nationale de Régulation de l'Electricité (National Power Regulatory
Authority)
ANDE Agence Nationale de l’Environnement (National Environmental Agency)
API American Petroleum Institute
Bbl Barrel
BOPD Barrels of oil per day
Btu British thermal units
CAS Country Assistance Strategy
CIAPOL Centre Ivoirien Antipollution (Ivorian Antipollution Agency)
CIE Compagnie Ivoirienne de l'Electricité (Private Ivorian Electric Company)
CIPREL Compagnie Ivoirienne de Production d’Electricité (Private IPP)
CNR Canadian Natural Resources
COLREG Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea
CPS Country Partnership Strategy
DSM Demand side management
ECF Extended Credit Facility
EE Energy Efficiency
EHS Environmental Health and Safety
EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return
EMP Environmental Management Plan
ENERCI Société Energie de Côte d’Ivoire (Private energy company)
EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction
ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment
ESRS Environmental and Social Summary Review
EU European Union
FCFA Franc de la Communauté Financière d’Afrique (National currency)
FEED Front end engineering design activities
GdF Gaz de France (French Gas Utility)
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse Gases
GoCI Government of Côte d’Ivoire
GSPA Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement
HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Country
HSE Health, Safety and Environment Management System
HVO Heavy Vacuum Oil
IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
IDA International Development Association
IFC International Finance Corporation
IMF International Monetary Fund
IMS Integrated Management Systems
IOC International Oil Company
IPP Independent power producer
IRR Internal Rate of Return
km Kilometers
L/C Letter of Credit
LNG Liquified natural gas
MARPOL International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships
MCF 1000 cubic feet
MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
MW Megawatt
mmbtu Millions british thermal units
mmscf Millions standard cubic feet
mmscfd Millions standard cubic feet per day
NPV Net present value
Opex Operation expenses
ORAF Operational Risk Assessment Framework
PAD Project Appraisal Document
PETROCI Société Nationale d’Opérations Pétrolière de la Côte d’Ivoire (National Petroleum
Company)
PDO Project Development Objective
PPP Public Private Partnership
PRG Partial Risk Guarantee
PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
PSC Production Sharing Contract
SAUR Société d’Aménagement Urbain et Rural (Private French Company)
SCDM Private French oil and gas company
SECI SAUR Energie Côte d’Ivoire (Private energy company)
SIR Société Ivoirienne de Raffinage (Ivorian Refining Company)
SOGEPE Société de Gestion du Patrimoine du Secteur de l’Electricité (Holding company
for sector assets)
SOLAS International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea
Tcf Trillion cubic feet
tCO2e Ton of carbon dioxide equivalent
ToP Take or Pay
UERP Urgent Electricity Rehabilitation Project
WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union
WBG World Bank Group
WTI West Texas Intermediate
Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop
Country Director: Madani M. Tall
Sector Director: Jamal Saghir
Sector Manager: Meike van Ginneken
Guarantee Manager:
Task Team Leaders:
Pankaj Gupta
Sunil Mathrani & Patrice Caporossi
CÔTE D’IVOIRE
Block CI-27 Gas Field Expansion Project
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT .................................................................................................1
A. Country Context ............................................................................................................ 1
B. Sectoral and Institutional Context ................................................................................. 1
C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes .......................................... 5
II. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ................................................................6
A. PDO............................................................................................................................... 6
B. Project Beneficiaries ..................................................................................................... 6
C. PDO Level Results Indicators ....................................................................................... 6
III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ..............................................................................................7
A. Project Components ...................................................................................................... 7
B. Project Cost and Financing ........................................................................................... 8
C. Lending Instrument: Guarantee .................................................................................... 9
IV. IMPLEMENTATION .....................................................................................................13
A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ........................................................ 13
B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation ............................................................................ 15
C. Sustainability............................................................................................................... 15
V. KEY RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ..........................................................15
A. Risk Ratings Summary Table ..................................................................................... 15
B. Overall Risk Rating Explanation ................................................................................ 16
VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY ..............................................................................................16
A. Economic and Financial Analyses .............................................................................. 16
B. Technical ..................................................................................................................... 17
C. Financial Management ................................................................................................ 18
D. Procurement ................................................................................................................ 18
E. Environmental and Social Performance Standards ..................................................... 19
Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring .........................................................................22
Côte d’Ivoire - Block CI-27 Gas Field Expansion Project
Project Stakeholder Risks Rating M
Description :
A source of potential reputational risk derives from
associating the World Bank with activities carried out in
the oil and gas sector, despite the many challenges to
increasing access to electricity in the country. However,
due to the nature of this PRG-only operation, this risk is not
envisaged to be significant in term of impact for the World
Bank.
Risk Management:
The project is of strategic importance for the Government, the sponsors, the countries depending
on Côte d’Ivoire for power, businesses and the local population. The World Bank is closely
engaged in the dialogue in the country and will continue the stakeholder communications and
dialogue with Government and civil society to highlight the benefits of the project. Transparency
will be provided through disclosing key documents at strategic locations in the country (including
at the World Bank’s Country office and Foxtrot office in Abidjan), as well as implementation of
the ESMPs and consultations with stakeholders as needed.
Resp: GoCI,
Developers,
WBG
Stage: Prep and
Implementation Due Date : Ongoing
Status:
Ongoing
Implementing Agency Risks (including fiduciary)
Capacity Rating: L
Description :
Foxtrot International has a strong track record of operating
in Côte d’Ivoire and is well equipped from technical,
contractual and financial standpoints to undertake the
project.
Risk Management :
In addition to its technical capacity, Foxtrot benefits from strong shareholder support from SCDM
and GdF Suez, both having extensive experience in developing gas fields. SCDM has carefully
led the procurement process with its technical team based in Houston, Tx. GoCI is furthermore
associated with the JV investment decisions through the presence in the JV of PETROCI.
Resp: GoCI
and WBG Stage: Implementation
Due Date : during
Implementation
Status:
Ongoing
Governance Rating: L
Description :
As implementing agency, Foxtrot International has
appropriate internal governance mechanism deemed
adequate to implement the project.
Risk Management :
The project team has been in close dialogue with the Government to ensure a transparent decision-
making process and governance structure during project preparation and implementation. The
existing project has not been subject to any governance issue despite the climate of political
instability in the country.
Resp: GoCI
and WBG
Stage: Prep and
Implementation Due Date : Ongoing
Status:
Ongoing
45
Project Risks
Design Rating: M
Description :
No particular risks are associated with the design of the
project. However, the fact that IDA involvement is only at
the end of the project design phase means that there will be
limited space to influence project design.
There is however an associated risk of the project not
achieving its PDO due to technical, technological or
implementation complexities of the gas expansion project.
Risk Management :
Project design is considered usual practice in private oil and gas operations.
Regarding the gas expansion project, supported by the PRG, Technical risk is deemed limited.
This is a brownfield project, with considerable visibility over the reserves and the new investment
needed. However geological risks cannot be entirely mitigated. Front-engineering is completed,
as well as procurement. Construction has already started. No cost overruns/delays are expected,
but cannot be fully discounted at this early stage. Strong technical capacity in Foxtrot International
(current operator) and its main shareholders.
Resp: GoCI
and WBG Stage: Implementation
Due Date : during
Implementation
Status:
Ongoing
Social & Environmental Rating: S
Description :
This is a category A project. The proposed works to install
the Marlin Platform, pipelines and development of drilling
operations, the future oil and gas production as well as
existing operations on the Foxtrot Platform present
potential significant adverse environmental and social
impacts which may affect an area broader than the sites
and/or facilities given its location near ecologically
sensitive areas. The key environmental and social issues
include: air quality and emissions, noise, management of
drilling wastes and cuttings, oil spills, occupational health
and safety, aquatic/benthic life disturbance (marine
mammals and turtles), well blowout, community health and
safety, accidental ruptures of pipelines, fishing activities,
hazardous materials and waste management. These
potential risks and impacts can be managed through
mitigation measures and/or well-known procedures and
technologies. Further details in Table 2.
Risk Management :
The project has completed an ESIA and ESMP. MIGA and IDA due diligence has been carried out
according to WBG performance standards. Commercial banks will apply Equator Principles on
this transaction, similar in nature to the IFC and WBG performance standards.
Proper monitoring and evaluation of environmental and social impacts will be carried out during
project implementation to ensure that environmental and social management plans are
implemented appropriately. Where project activities will potentially impact negatively on people
living and/or working on or near the project areas, the procedures as described in the performance
standards will be applicable.
As part of the updated and consolidated ESIA prepared by Foxtrot early 2013, a situation related to
a claim for compensation is described and its resolution documented in the updated ESIA and
ESRS.
Resp: GoCI
and WBG
Stage: Prep and
Implementation Due Date : Ongoing
Status:
Ongoing
Program & Donor Rating: L
Description :
There is no particular risk associated with donors or
programs for this project
Risk Management :
Resp: GoCI
and WBG
Stage: Prep and
Implementation Due Date : Ongoing
Status:
Ongoing
46
Delivery Monitoring & Sustainability Rating: S
Description :
Inability of the GoCI entities to process and manage
contractual and financial agreements associated with the
operations.
Systemic financial imbalances in the power sector could
jeopardize the sustainability of the project.
Risk Management :
The team will work in close collaboration with the Government to ensure that timely preparation
and implementation of the various agreements. At the same time, the World Bank will continue
the close dialogue with the Government to support improvement in the fundamentals of the power
sector. Solving the bottlenecks in the gas sector will help reduce power costs and enable power
sector financial equilibrium to be reached in 2014.
Resp: GoCI
and WBG
Stage: Prep and
Implementation Due Date : Ongoing
Status:
Ongoing
Overall Risk Following Review
Implementation Risk Rating: Substantial
Comments: The rating reflects the relatively straightforward project design that will facilitate implementation but also recognizes that the operation will be sustainable only if
fundamentals in the power sector improve over time. If this is not the case, imbalances may cause a continued dependency on donor funding of budget support.
Furthermore, power distribution constraints may limit the efficacy of the PRG scheme if not supported by an overall sector approach.
47
Annex 6: IDA Guarantee
Côte d’Ivoire - Block CI-27 Gas Field Expansion Project
SUMMARY OF INDICATIVE TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF IDA PARTIAL RISK
GUARANTEES IN SUPPORT OF GAS SUPPLY AGREEMENT IN CÔTE D’IVOIRE
L/C Applicant: Côte d’Ivoire, as contractual guarantor of gas payments
obligations of CI-ENERGIES, as the “Buyer”29
under a Gas
Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) with the Gas JV
partners.
IDA/Guaranteed L/C:
Revolving standby letter of credit (L/C) issued in favor of the
L/C Beneficiary by the L/C Bank.
Côte d’Ivoire’s obligations to repay the L/C bank amounts
drawn under the L/C will be guaranteed by IDA. Any
amounts drawn by the L/C Beneficiary under the L/C that are
repaid by Côte d’Ivoire to the L/C Bank within the L/C
reimbursement period would be reinstated as described
below.
L/C Beneficiary:
SECI, ENERCI and Foxtrot International
L/C Bank:
A commercial bank acceptable to IDA, Côte d’Ivoire and the
L/C Beneficiary.
L/C Form:
The L/C will be issued in a form satisfactory to the L/C
Beneficiary, Côte d’Ivoire and IDA.
Purpose: The IDA PRG would backstop the failure by Côte d’Ivoire to
repay the L/C Bank for the amounts drawn by the L/C
Beneficiary under the L/C on account of payments due to the
L/C Beneficiary from Côte d’Ivoire in respect of various
obligations under the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement
(GSPA) following the occurrence of a Guaranteed Event (as
defined below).
Guaranteed Events: Côte d’Ivoire’s failure to comply with certain of its
contractual obligations under the GSPA as will be detailed in
a PRG Support Agreement to be concluded between Côte
d’Ivoire and the Gas JV
Maximum L/C Amount: TBD (expected to be equal to the IDA PRG Maximum
Guaranteed Amount)
L/C Fees: To be payable by the L/C Beneficiary to the L/C Bank.
L/C Reimbursement
Period:
Following a drawing under the L/C by the L/C Beneficiary,
Côte d’Ivoire would be obligated to repay the L/C Bank the
2929
Côte d’Ivoire is the contractual guarantor of state company Société des Energies de Cote d’Ivoire as Buyer under
the GSPA.
48
amount drawn under the L/C together with accrued interest
thereon within a period of 12 months pursuant to a
Reimbursement and Credit Agreement to be concluded
between Côte d’Ivoire and the L/C Bank. In the event of a
timely re-payment by Côte d’Ivoire, the L/C will be
reinstated by the amount of the repayment. In the event of a
non-repayment by Côte d’Ivoire by the due date, the L/C
Bank would have the right to call on the PRG for principal
amounts plus accrued interest due from Côte d’Ivoire. Any
amount paid by the Bank to the L/C Bank under the PRG
would be deducted from the Annual IDA Guaranteed
Amount and the Maximum IDA PRG Guaranteed Amount
and even if Côte d’Ivoire’s payment default is remedied,
following a payment under the PRG, those amounts would
not be reinstated.
Conditional payments in the
event of dispute:
In the event of a dispute between the L/C Beneficiary and
Côte d’Ivoire in connection with a Guaranteed Event, the L/C
can also be drawn for provisional payments pending the
settlement of the dispute, provided that the L/C Beneficiary
shall provide to Côte d’Ivoire with appropriate security
(acceptable to Côte d’Ivoire and to be reflected in the PRG
support agreement) in the amount of provisional payments in
the event the final decision determines that Côte d’Ivoire had
no liability or its liability was for less than the amount of the
provisional payments.
Maximum IDA PRG
Guaranteed Amount:
US$60 M - (expected to be equal to the Maximum L/C
Amount) plus accrued interest
Validity Period of the L/C: Period to be agreed.
Maximum IDA Guarantee
Period:
8 years from date of issuance of the L/C plus 14_ months.
Interest Rate on Drawings
During the Reimbursement,
Period Charged by the L/C
Bank:
A ‘spread’ above LIBOR acceptable to Côte d’Ivoire and
agreed by the L/C Bank.
Bank Guarantee Fees:30
IDA will charge a guarantee fee of 0.75% per annum on the
Annual IDA Guaranteed Amounts, payable six monthly in
advance by the L/C Beneficiary from effectiveness of the L/C
or Commissioning Date.
Bank Front-end Fees:
IDA will charge the following front-end fees for guarantees:
(a) An Initiation Fee of 0.15% of the Maximum IDA
Guaranteed Principal Amount (but not less than US$ l00,000)
for internal Project preparation, payable by the L/C
30
The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors typically reviews loan and guarantee fees once a year in respect
of the next fiscal year. The fiscal year begins on July 1st..The applicable fee as of the date that the Guarantee
Agreement becomes effective remains constant throughout the term of the guarantee.
49
Beneficiary.
(b) A Processing Fee of up to a maximum cap of 0.50% of
the Maximum IDA Guaranteed Principal Amount to cover
IDA‘s reimbursable expenses and third party costs,
payable by the L/C Beneficiary
Conditions Precedent to the
effectiveness of the IDA
Guarantee:
Conditions precedent will include, inter alia, the following:
(a) Relevant host country environmental approvals required
for the operation and compliance with all applicable
requirements relating to World Bank performance
standards.
(b) Provision of relevant satisfactory legal opinions,
including from: (i) the Attorney General of the Republic of
Côte d’Ivoire relating to the Indemnity Agreement; (ii)
counsel to Côte d’Ivoire relating to the PRG support
agreement and the Reimbursement and Credit Agreement,
and (iii) counsel to the L/C Beneficiary relating to the
Project Agreement.
(c) Payment in full of the Initiation and Processing Fees, and
the first installment of the Guarantee Fee.
(d) Conclusion on terms acceptable to IDA of a Guarantee
Agreement between the L/C Beneficiary and IDA,
Reimbursement and Credit Agreement between L/C
Beneficiary and IDA, a PRG Support Agreement between
the L/C Applicant and the L/C Beneficiary, a Project
Agreement between Foxtrot International and IDA, and an
Indemnity Agreement between IDA and Côte d’Ivoire.
Guarantee Agreement:
The terms and conditions of the IDA Guarantee would be
embodied in a Guarantee Agreement between the L/C Bank
and IDA.
Project Agreement:
The L/C Beneficiary would enter into a Project Agreement
with IDA in respect of IDA’s Guarantee. Under such
Agreement, the L/C Beneficiary will, inter alia, provide
reports (including audit reports) and other Project
information, and make warranties, representations and
covenanted undertakings, including in respect of compliance
with applicable Côte d’Ivoire environmental laws and
relevant World Bank environmental and social safeguards
and World Bank anti-corruption policies and procedures,
including those relating to sanctionable practices31
.
31
Sanctionable practices” include corrupt, fraudulent, collusive, coercive, or obstructive practices
50
IDA may suspend or terminate the PRG if the L/C
Beneficiary breaches the warranties, representations or
undertakings under the Project Agreement.
Indemnity Agreement:
The Republic of Côte d’Ivoire would enter into an Indemnity
Agreement with IDA. Under the Agreement, the Republic of
Côte d’Ivoire would, inter alia, undertake to indemnify IDA
on demand, or as IDA may otherwise determine, for any
payment made by IDA under the terms of the Guarantee. The
Indemnity Agreement will follow the legal regime, and
include dispute settlement provisions, which are customary in
agreements between member countries and IDA.
PRG Support Agreement: Côte d’Ivoire will enter into a PRG Support Agreement with
the L/C Beneficiary under which Côte d’Ivoire would
undertake to indemnify the L/C Beneficiary for the loss of
revenues resulting from the occurrence of a Guaranteed
Event on the basis of drawdown and dispute resolution
mechanisms and supporting documentation to be agreed
between the parties and satisfactory to the World Bank and to
be consistent with the provisions under the GSPA.
L/C Reimbursement and
Credit Agreement:
Côte d’Ivoire will enter into a Reimbursement & Credit
Agreement with the L/C Bank in which it will undertake to
repay the L/C Bank for the amounts drawn under the L/C
plus accrued interest within a period of twelve (12) months
from the date of each drawing.
51
Annex 7: Power Sector Finances
Côte d’Ivoire - Block CI-27 Gas Field Expansion Project
1. The financial situation of the sector is improving due to a comprehensive power sector
financial recovery plan (Plan) that GoCI has started implementing. GoCI will need to fully
implement the Plan, including additional tariff adjustments, to completely restore the financial
sustainability of the sector.
2. In recent years, the power sector has made large losses of about FCFA 100 billion
(US$200 million equivalent) per year in 2010-12. This is mainly due to:
(i) Insufficient revenues following limited tariff increase in the last ten years despite the
higher reliance on gas ;
(ii) Large increases in costs in particular of the cost of gas supply following a decision in
2007 to remove a price cap from the existing gas supply contracts ;
(iii)Expensive emergency power needed because of lack of decision to expand gas supply
and generation.
3. Since 1998, the power sector cash flows are managed through a “cash waterfall”
mechanism as shown below, which gives priority of payment to private investors. CIE gets its
contractual remuneration first, followed by the IPPs and gas field operators on a pari passu
basis.32
When revenues have been insufficient, GoCI has often sacrificed some, or all of its
revenues from the gas production sharing agreements (currently around US$150-200 million per
year) to subsidize the cash shortfall. This was to the detriment of using those revenues for other
purposes such as financing required investments in the sector.
Figure 1: Electricity Sector Cash Waterfall
4. Table 1 below presents the tariff structure for the sector. The Government was unable to
32
The cash waterfall allowed the sector to meet its obligations to the IPPs until mid-2010, when the increase in gas
prices and the disruption caused by the political crisis led to arrears to IPPs at about 2-3 months’ payment. These
arrears have now been cleared.
52
proceed with a 10 percent tariff increase planned for January 2011 as the post electoral crisis was
ongoing, and despite the ever-rising cost of gas - linked to the price of oil. The average cost of
US$6.9 per mmbtu in 2010 rose to US$7.9 per mmbtu in 2011. Since then, GoCI increased
tariffs to non-residential users by 10 percent in May 2012, but is deferring a planned 5 percent
increase for residential users due to unfavorable socio-political conditions.
Table 1: Tariff Structure
Source: MacroConsulting 2011 tariff study based on 2009 data from utility.
5. This tariff increase is part of a Plan that GoCI agreed with the IMF in late 2012. The Plan
is a major step to restore the sector’s financial viability as it includes renegotiating down the high
gas prices as well as other cost savings, while also increasing sector revenues through targeted
tariff adjustments. The main measure (renegotiation of the price of gas from the main provider
Foxtrot) is already effective. GoCI has agreed with Block CI-27 Joint Venture partners, on a
retroactive price reduction effective from January 1, 2012. This results in cost savings to the
power sector of about FCFA 80 billion per year. More details on the Plan are given in paragraphs
11-12.
6. Despite this key measure, the sector’s financial loss remains large and similar to 2011
(about FCFA 125 billion loss in 2011 and FCFA 108 billion in 2012 before government
subsidies)33
due to:
(a) Expensive short term solutions (emergency power rentals34
and HVO35
usage), due in part to lack of gas. The use of HVO cost GoCI 62 FCFA billion
in 2012. This is the consequence of (i) delays in taking decisions to expand gas
production and additional generation capacity, (ii) unusual gas supply
interruptions36
, and (iii) low hydrology. GoCI has finally signed with private
parties to expand gas production and generation capacity, but pays a high price for
the delays in doing so. In addition, a deficit in the gas supply-demand balance
is projected, (See Annex 8). as a result of which over the next five years, an
estimated US$250 million of liquid fuel will be required. The need for liquid
fuel would be significantly higher without Foxtrot, with an additional cost of
33
GoCI figures are similar (FCFA 107 billion loss in 2011 and 111 in 2012). 34
Aggreko is providing 100MW since July 2012 and will add an additional 100MW from March 2013. 35
Heavy Vacuum Oil is produced by the national refinery SIR (Société Ivoirienne de Raffinage). PETROCI buys
the HVO from SIR and Ministry of Finance is to reimburse PETROCI. The CIPREL power plant can use HVO. 36
Foxtrot sometimes produced less because of its drilling program. Afren had problems with compressors.
53
about US$1.5 billion until 2020 (net present value as of 2013), were the project
not to proceed.
(b) Inadequate tariffs. The Plan forecasts progressive tariff increases and
modification of the LV tariff structure to make it progressive (i.e. higher
consumption slabs will pay a higher unit price). So far GoCI has taken only
modest measures on tariffs, (10 percent increase for industrial users in May
201237
, but the reclassification of over 250,000 LV customers from the lifeline to
the normal residential category with effect from January 2013 will contribute
about FCFA 5 billion in extra revenues. Additional increases and an automatic
indexation formula are necessary to ensure the sector’s long-term sustainability.
(c) High losses. The Plan forecasts improvements thanks to measures to reduce fraud
and ongoing technical work (such as the World Bank UERP project) but more
investments are needed.
(d) Insufficient revenue collection. The Plan forecasts improvements in the CNO
zone.
7. The Plan will significantly reduce the costs and the deficit of the sector (as shown in the
graph below, the gap is closing between average revenue and average cost). However, our
forecasts38
still indicate a loss of FCFA 69 billion in 2013 and FCFA 52 billion in 2014. GoCI’s
share of the gas revenues will be sufficient to cover this deficit but GoCI will not be able to use
those funds for other uses.
8. In addition to implementing the measures currently planned, the Government will
therefore have to continue increasing tariffs revenues to ensure full sustainability for the
sector. The Plan does forecast progressive tariff increases and a tariff restructuring as per the
recommendations of the tariff study conducted last year. To become fully sustainable (that is
make a profit, but not contribute towards debt service or new investments) the sector would
require an additional 15 percent tariff increase in January 2014.
37
GoCI also subsidizes exports. While it negotiated new tariffs in October 2012 (at around FCFA 60/kWh), this is
still below the average cost (around FCFA 84/kWh in 2012) and the marginal cost (around FCFA 200/kWh). 38
GoCI forecasts a loss of FCFA 25 billion in 2013 and a small profit in 2014. The difference is mainly because
GoCI’s estimate of the impact of some measures is higher.
54
Figure 2: Comparison of Average Revenue and Average Cost (FCFA/kWh), Sector Deficit and
GoCI Share of Gas Revenues (FCFA billion)
Source: World Bank Group sector model based on GoCI data.
9. The graph below shows the breakdown of costs (and compares it to the average revenue –
red line). For instance in 2012, for each kWh sold, the costs were gas (FCFA 37.5 /kWh), the
Consumer structure change - 5.5 5.5 Done. Applicable January 1,
2013
Better collection in CNO zone 1 2 3 Not yet. Ongoing
Better network efficiency 3 3 3 Not yet. Ongoing
Demand side management (lamps,
public lighting)
- 1.2 1.2 Not yet. Not implemented yet
Sector development levy - ? ? Not yet. No decision made yet
GoCI subsidies for arrears for IPPs
& for HVO for thermal generation
32
61
39
?
Done. Done in September 2012
Done. Ongoing
Total (if all measures applied) 193 204 174
Source: Ministry of Energy and Ministry of Finances Communication en Conseil des Ministres, November 15 2012
Investments
13. Few investments occurred in the last 10 years given the political situation, the lack of
decision making, and the financial weakness of the sector. Going forward, large investments are
needed in all sub-sectors:
14. Generation – Most of the generation investments are done by private companies and
embedded in the power purchase agreements (PPAs) signed by CI-ENERGIES. GoCI will
nevertheless need to contribute counterpart funds to some projects, including the Soubré
hydropower plant, which will be entirely-public sector.
15. Transmission – GoCI is negotiating a FCFA 400 billion loan with China Exim Bank for a
number of major T-line projects. The loan would be concessional with 15 year tenure, 9-year
57
grace, and 1.75-percent interest rate.
16. Distribution – Investments in the ageing and limited42
distribution network are essential.
GoCI expects donors to finance most distribution investments but this will probably not be
sufficient. The Plan also forecasts a sector development levy (redevance de développement) that
would be included in the tariff to cover costs of investments. A decree (no. 210-195 of July 15
2010) already included this development tax/fee/royalty. This would be an excellent way to
ensure sustainable financing of future investments, but would oblige GoCI to raise tariffs beyond
its current plan.
42
CIE has about 1.5 million customers compared with about 2.9 million in Ghana for a similar population.
58
Annex 8: Power Generation Expansion & Gas Supply Issues
Côte d’Ivoire - Block CI-27 Gas Field Expansion Project
Introduction
1. The power and gas sectors in Côte d’Ivoire are deeply interlinked. Power is virtually the
sole market for gas producers and electricity production is heavily dependent upon natural gas.
Consequently, investment decisions in one sector depend upon a commensurate response in the
other. Unfortunately, due to inadequate coordination and financial constraints, the expansion of
power generation capacity is today hindered by lags in development of new gas resources.
Current gas producers have attained the maximum output levels that their gas reserves can
sustain. Power generation is now reliant upon a significant input of highly expensive liquid fuels
in order to avoid blackouts. In 2012, US$120m of liquid fuel was consumed by the power sector
to avoid power outages. Despite the conversion of single cycle gas turbines to combined cycle
mode and the start of construction of a major new hydro project, robust economic growth
prospects for the coming years raise the risk of greater reliance on liquid fuels and/or equally
costly imported LNG.
2. To mitigate the impact on end user tariffs in the medium term, Côte d’Ivoire’s power
sector needs to pursue demand side management (DSM) & energy efficiency (EE) measures, as
well as aggressively explore renewable energy sources such as grid-connected solar in tandem
with existing hydro sources. In the longer term, larger-scale hydro also offers some alternative
sources of power, since the country still has considerable unexploited hydro potential.
Oil and Gas Sector
3. The Ivorian oil and gas sector is relatively small compared to some other sub-Saharan
countries like Nigeria or Angola. However, recent exploration successes in Ghana may be
replicated in Côte d'Ivoire as numerous major oil companies are exploring actively, including in
deep waters. The liquid hydrocarbon reserves of Côte d'Ivoire are currently about 18 billion
barrels and the gas reserves about 0.53 tcf. The total liquid production is about 49,000 b/d and
current gas production is about 150 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd), which will rise
to about 190 mmscfd in the near term, of which the Foxtrot field alone will account for 140
mmscfd. Virtually all of Côte d’Ivoire’s gas production is consumed by the power sector.
4. Hydrocarbon production started in the early 1980s. In 1995, the first gas field, Panthere,
came onstream. Four years later, the Foxtrot gas field also started producing. Fiscal terms were
relaxed slightly in the 1990s which in turn prompted fresh investment and exploration, leading to
the deepwater Baobab discovery in 2001. The civil war of 2002-2004 had little impact on the oil
and gas industry and liquids production reached a new peak in 2006. Production has since
stabilized before existing fields begin a natural decline. Future production is therefore reliant on
the discovery and development of new fields.
5. The corporate landscape in Côte d'Ivoire contains both large international oil companies
(IOCs) and a number of small independent companies. The national (fully state-owned) oil
company PETROCI has a carried interest in all blocks. Recent farm-in activity has seen Total
take an interest in the deepwater licenses, adding to the growing list of IOCs including
Anadarko, Tullow and Lukoil. Foxtrot International appraised the Marlin discovery with a
further well in 2010. Vanco drilled two exploration wells on block CI-401 and in 2012
Anadarko made a discovery (Paon) on block CI-103 in mid-2012. Rialto (in which IFC has
59
US$15.7 million investment) has a three appraisal oil and gas wells drilling campaign planned in
block CI-202 in 2012/13. As industry interest raises, farm-ins by new entrants are expected to
continue.
6. Currently the main gas producing blocks are CI-11 Lion and Panthere, CI-27 Foxtrot as
well as CI-26 Espoir and CI-40 Baobab fields, which produce associated gas. CI-27 Foxtrot
produces only a small quantity of oil and for all practical purposes is considered a non-associated
gas field. It has 304bcf remaining gas reserves, followed by CI-26 Espoir’s 100bcf. The other
discoveries and future prospects have no certified reserve data available. In 2012, two-thirds of
all gas produced came from the CI-27 block, which will remain the country’s largest gas
producer for at least the next decade, provided the investments foreseen as part of the expansion
project under consideration, and to be covered by the proposed PRG, take place. Without these,
in fact, the original Foxtrot field will go into decline and gas production from Block CI-27 would
taper off.
7. There appears to be little upside potential for raising production from Block CI-27
beyond the already increased volume which the expansion project provides for. There are
however reasonable prospects of developing three small fields (Kudu, Eland & Ibex) in Block
CI-01 (Afren), possibly in conjunction with the adjacent Gazelle field being evaluated for
development by Rialto. These may add 50 mmscfd to available gas supply around 2017, but
these projections are subject to considerable uncertainty. In the interim, gas supply is expected
to be short of projected demand from the power sector by about 30 mmscfd, with major cost
implications, since the only alternative fuel available for power generation is petroleum.
Liquified natural gas (LNG) imports are being studied as an option to enhance gas availability.
However, were these to be found to be economically justified, they would not be able to replace
liquid fuel use before 2016, due to the lead times needed for such projects.
Power Sector
Current Capacity
8. Total installed generation capacity in Côte d'Ivoire is about 1400 MW. The actual
available generation capacity varies between 800-1200 MW, due to plant scheduled
maintenance, plant outages and variations in hydrology. The country does not have adequate
reserve generation capacity, which makes it vulnerable to load-shedding at peak times. In 2012,
peak demand was slightly over 1000 MW. Total electricity production was about 8000 GWh, of
which 6000 GWh was produced with gas.
Future Demand for Electricity:
9. Historical Demand Growth. During the past 20 years, electricity demand has grown at a
remarkably consistent rate of 5.6 percent. Even in 2003 during the peak of civil strife, demand
only fell by 1.3 percent and recovered the year after. For Côte d’Ivoire, the average historical
correlation factor between GDP and electricity demand growth is 1.09.
10. Prognosis for Power Demand Growth. For the next five years it is reasonable to
anticipate the unconstrained demand for electricity will grow at 8.8 percent, which is 1.09 times
projected GDP growth and somewhat less than the Government’s forecast of 11 percent. In the
longer term, a gradual return to historical growth of 5.6 percent is assumed.
Peak Load. The present peak demand for electricity is currently 1,040 MW and estimated to be
growing at rate that will double in the next ten years to over 2,000 MW.
60
Table 1: Electricity Demand Forecast
Real GDP
Growth %
Power Growth
% MW
Actual
2000 -4.6 5.1 594
2001 0.0 -0.2 593
2002 -1.6 3.6 615
2003 -1.7 -1.3 606
2004 1.6 6.1 643
2005 1.9 5.8 680
2006 0.7 4.8 713
2007 1.6 6.9 762
2008 2.3 7.0 815
2009 3.8 5.2 857
2010 2.4 6.4 912
2011 -4.7 1.4 925
2012 9.8 8.8 1,006
Projected
2013 8.0 8.7 1,094
2014 8.5 9.2 1,195
2015 8.5 9.2 1,305
2016 8.0 8.7 1,419
2017 7.5 8.2 1,534
2018 7.1 7.7 1,653
2019
5.6 1,746
2020
5.6 1,843
2021
5.6 1,947
2022
5.6 2,056
2023
5.6 2,171
2024
5.6 2,292 Source: Historical GDP: IMF; Historical Power Demand: CIE
Projected GDP: IDA/IMF; Projected Power Demand: IDA
11. New Power Supply Options: There are three firm generation projects underway to
expand the power supply capacity of Côte d’Ivoire, (Azito, CIPREL and Soubré) and two
projects at an advanced stage of preparation.
12. Azito Expansion (130 MW, expected by late 2015/early 2016). The existing Azito plant
consists of two simple-cycle ABB GT13E gas turbines and was commissioned 13-years ago with
base financing provided by a consortium arranged by IFC and supported by an IDA PRG. The
plant has an International Standards Organization capacity rating of 280 MW, although in
practice its site-rating is closer to 250 MW. The plant will now have its capacity increased by
addition of a combined-cycle steam turbine with financing from IFC, Proparco and other lenders.
This expansion is highly desirable as the additional 130 MW obtained will not require any
additional fuel nor will it result in higher emissions.
61
13. Soubré Hydro (126MW average, 275MW peak, expected by 2018-19). The Soubré plant
consists of three 90 MW hydroelectric turbines and construction has just begun with site
preparation. 85 percent of project cost, (US$556 million) is funded by the China Exim Bank.
The maximum rated capacity of Soubré is 275 MW, but it is considered to have an average rating
at peak hours of about 165 MW, with an average output over 24 hours of 126 MW.
14. CIPREL TAG10 and TAV1 (200 MW, expected by 2015/16). The CIPREL plant
presently has a capacity of 320MW, which will increase with the addition of a new turbine, a
simple cycle GE9E unit, which together with its twin (already operating TAG9), will have its
exhaust gases diverted to a heat recovery steam generator which will generate another 100 MW.
This project is highly attractive economically due to the lower call on gas supply and emissions
avoidance.
15. Green field Combined Cycle IPP. (300 MW expected by 2017). Several firms are looking
at the possibility of developing a private combined cycle power plant in the region of 300 MW
and costing in the order of US$500 million, including financing charges. It usually takes several
years to raise financing for a private power project and another 3 years to construct, so the
private plant is unlikely to enter service before 2017-18. All current proposals are handicapped
by the lack of firm gas availability and payment risks from the power sector.
Table 2: Summary of expected Capacity Increase by 2020
.
16. Capacity Deficit. During the 2013 to 2020 period, demand is expected to grow by about
750 MW. The additional 755 MW shown above does not include reserves for machinery
breakdown and dry years when hydro output is cut, so the actual amount of additional capacity
needed would be somewhat more in order to maintain the same reliability of service.
Least-Cost Generation Expansion Plan
17. Preparing this plan involves reviewing all alternatives for increasing electricity
production over a period of at least twenty years and making assumptions about future fuel costs,
the economic cost of adverse environmental impact, operation and maintenance expenses, etc.
For Côte d’Ivoire, such a plan has not been prepared for well over a decade43
, so a more
pragmatic approach has been taken to generation planning, for the following reasons:
(a) it is obvious that natural gas at US$5.50/mmbtu is a cheaper option than the
alternatives of diesel fuel (US$25/mmbtu), heavy vacuum oil (US$16/mmbtu), or
light crude (US$17.50/mmbtu).
43
The procurement process to hire consultants to undertake a power sector master plan has just begun.
Firm Capacity Additions Additional
Capacity Gas requirement 2013 to 2020
MW mmbtu/day
Azito Combined Cycle 130 --
CIPREL additional unit 10 100 26
CIPREL Combined Cycle 100 --
Soubré hydro 125
New Combined Cycle 300 52
755 78
62
(b) preparing a least cost plan requires more certainty about future natural gas availability
than currently is the case in Côte d’Ivoire.
Private Sector Generation issues.
18. Fuel Constraints. Private Independent Power Project (IPP) developers generally must
have long-term Fuel Supply Agreements in place in order to raise long-term debt funding.
Lenders would normally expect a fuel agreement to provide a guarantee of supply for 20-years.
Since long-term FSAs are not possible at this juncture in Côte d’Ivoire, except for smaller
quantities of gas for smaller power plants, it will be difficult for the private sector to reach
financial closure for new gas-fired power generation capacity for several years to come.
19. LNG Option. Eventually, the Government may decide to import LNG as a power plant
fuel. However, until at least 2018, the LNG market is expected to be supply-constrained and
have high prices. LNG spot prices are presently in the order of US$14/mmbtu. In 2018, a
number of new liquefaction trains enter into service and some long-term supply contracts expire
and it is reasonable to expect that LNG prices will start to decline as that date approaches.
20. At the present price of LNG (about US$14/mmbtu), burning light crude as a power plant
fuel at a cost of around US$17.50/mmbtu in a combined cycle power plant might be an interim
solution. Heavy vacuum oil (HVO) at a cost of US$16/mmbtu is another option, although it is
technically more challenging. A definite commitment by the Government to proceed with an
LNG import scheme is dependent upon whether the ongoing offshore deep water exploration
activity yields significant new gas finds, which would undermine the rationale to import LNG.
21. Provided that fuel prices are fully pass-through, the private sector might be willing to
construct combined cycle power plants that would temporarily use liquid fuel and later be
converted to natural gas. The approximate cost of power would be:
Table 3: Comparative Generation Costs
Light Crude at $100/barrel Natural Gas at $550/mmbtu
US¢/kWh FCFA/kWh US¢/kWh FCFA/kWh
Fuel Cost 12.5 63 4.2 21
Capital cost recovery 4.0 20 3.8 19
O&M and insurance 0.6 3 0.4 2
17.1 86 8.3 42
Gas Supply and Demand Balance.
22. Shortages. The 2013-14 gas deficit is triggered largely by the need for gas as fuel for the
high-speed diesel rental power plant, prior to the entry in service of the new combined cycle
units. Given that none of the existing gas producers (Foxtrot, Afren & CNR) can increase their
firm gas output in the short-term, additional demand from the power sector can only be covered
by recourse to liquid fuel. The gas deficit becomes particularly pronounced about 2017-18,
when a new IPP/PPP plant is likely to enter into service. At that time, operation of older, less
efficient units might be phased out. If the steam units of Vridi and the CIPREL simple cycle gas
turbines were put into standby and replaced by more efficient combined cycle plant, the gas
shortages perhaps would not occur, particularly if smaller offshore gas fields east of Abidjan are
brought into production by Afren and Rialto by that date. For the longer term, much depends on
the outcome of ongoing deep water exploration being conducted by several IOCs. In the event
63
that these discover economically recoverable gas reserves, commercial exploitation could not
begin for 5-6 years after the discoveries take place. Hence the gas supply-demand balance for
the remainder of this decade is known with reasonable certainty. Demand for gas will outstrip
available supply in most years.
23. Supply Risk and Outages. The following supply and demand figures are largely without
scheduled maintenance outages, which would normally be performed during the wet season
when hydro production is high, so the impact would be minimal. However, in both gas and
electricity production the risk of major outages is high, especially in case of a Foxtrot platform
force majeure event, which would result in electricity production falling by about 700 MW or
around 60 percent of supply, depending on the season.
Table 4: Projected Gas Supply/Demand Balance
millions scf/day 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Gas Supply
Foxtrot Block 27 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140
Afren Blocks 01 and 11 20 20 35 30 30 30 30 30
CNR Blocks 26 and 40 30 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
Others (eg Rialto)
25 25 50 50 50 50
190 195 235 230 255 255 255 255
Gas Requirements
Refinery & other 13 14 15 25 25 25 25 25
Azito Power Plant 68 68 68 72 72 72 72 72
CIPREL Power Plant 81 95 104 110 110 110 110 110
HS Diesel 27 27 27
Vridi steam 18 18 18 20 20 20 20 20
New private combined
cycle
52 52 52
207 222 233 227 227 279 279 279
Gas Deficit (17) (27) 2 3 28 (24) (24) (24) Sources: Compilation of data provided by different sources within the Ministry of Mines, Petroleum and Energy
24. Gas Allocation Priorities: Gas would be directed in order of priority to the combined
cycle power plants, since they are more reliable, efficient and function better on natural gas.
These are:
Table 5: Projected gas demand by power plant
Gas
Required
mmscfd
Thermal
Efficiency
% Priority Plant MW
1 Azito Comb cycle 390 76 50
2
CIPREL Comb
Cycle 300 52 50
3
CIPREL simple
cycle 210 64 33
4 HS Diesel rental 100 30 33
5 Vridi Steam 63 20 28
1063 242
Annex 9: Project Preparation and Appraisal Team Members
Côte d’Ivoire - Block CI-27 Gas Field Expansion Project
Name Title Unit
Sunil Mathrani Sr. Energy Specialist, co-TTL AFTG2
Lucienne M’Baipor Sr. Social Development Specialist AFTCS
Frederic Manuel Cegarra Sr. Adviser SEGM1
Paul Nickson Oil and Gas Consultant
Neil Pravin Ashar Counsel LEGSO
Mark Walker Adviser LEGSO
Monica Restrepo Sr. Counsel LEGSO
Arnaud Braud Jr. Professional Officer AFTG2
Ines Perez Arroyo Operations Analyst AFTG2
Haoua Diallo Team Assistant AFCF2
Rita Ahiboh Program Assistant TWIFS
Thanh Lu Ha Sr. Program Assistant AFTG2
For More Details,See Inset Beside
For More Details,See Inset Beside
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IBRD 36874
MAY 2013
BUILT-UP AREAS
NATIONAL CAPITAL
REGION CAPITALS
DEPARTMENT CAPITALS
REGION BOUNDARIES
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES
CÔTE D´IVOIRE
URGENT ELECTRICIT Y REHABILITATIONPOWER PROJECT
TRANSMISSION SYSTEM
0 40 80
0 20 40 60 80 Miles
120 Kilometers
FUTUREEXISTINGTRANSMISSION LINES AND SUB-STATIONS:
330 kV
225 kV
90 kV
POWER GENERATION PLANTS:
THERMAL
HYDRO
EXISTING FUTURE
This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank.The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other informationshown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World BankGroup, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or anyendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
For more detail,see map at left.For more detail,see map at left.
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IBRD 40029
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DEPARTMENT CAPITALS
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INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES
CÔTE D´IVOIRECI-27 GAS FIELD EXPANSION PROJECT
0 10
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NEW PROJECT OIL AND GAS FIELD
EXISTING OIL AND GAS FIELD
EXISTING OIL PIPELINES
NEW OIL PIPELINES TO BE BUILT
EXISTING GAS PIPELINES
NEW GAS PIPELINES TO BE BUILT
WELLS
This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank.The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other informationshown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World BankGroup, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or anyendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.