1 The Way Ahead The Way Ahead Dr. Ed Smith +1-703-465-3319 Boeing Effects Effects - - Based Operations… Based Operations… The Way Ahead The Way Ahead
1The Way AheadThe Way AheadDr. Ed Smith+1-703-465-3319
Boeing
EffectsEffects--Based Operations…Based Operations…
The Way AheadThe Way Ahead
2
OutlineOutline
1. Three why’s and a what2. Operations in the Cognitive Domain and
Beyond3. Complexity4. Implications for Network Centric Operations5. Conclusion: Onward to Second Generation
Network Centric Operations
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Great Means
Great Will
Great Means
Great Willvs.
Attrition-based Warfare:Wearing Down the Physical Capacity for War
1. Three Why’s and a What1. Three Why’s and a What
Symmetric, State-to-State Conflict
Why #1: The Challenge of Asymmetric Niche Competitors
Opponents have similar means and will
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Little Means
Great Will
Great Means
Little Will ?
vs.
Large Power Challenger
Opponents have unequal means and will
Asymmetric Niche CompetitionAsymmetric Niche Competition
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Little Means
Great Will
Great Means
Little Will ?
vs.
Large Power Challenger
Opponents have unequal means and will
Asymmetric Niche CompetitionAsymmetric Niche Competition
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Little Means
Great Will
Great Means
Little Will ?
vs.
Large Power ChallengerOpponents have unequal means and will
Two Different AsymmetriesTwo Different Approaches
Asymmetric Niche CompetitionAsymmetric Niche Competition
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Why #2 : Spectrum of Military Why #2 : Spectrum of Military OperationsOperations
Peace Crisis War Peace
Major Combat
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Why #2: Spectrum of Military OperationsWhy #2: Spectrum of Military OperationsNew Security EnvironmentNew Security Environment
PeaceCrisis
ResponseHostilities
Post-Conflict
Peace
Major Combat
•Increasing human dimension•Increasing complexity•Increasing “whole of nation” effort
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Why #3: “Real” World OperationsWhy #3: “Real” World Operations• Industrial Age: Physical Attrition
– Right targets, weapons, numbers, time, but…– Enemy adapts:
• Non-uniformed combatants• Mixed with civilians
– Engagements
• Information Age: Psychological Attrition– Right actions, right timing, right effects– Complex situation
• No civil-military separation, human shields• Multiple audiences• Foe seeking media “effect”
– Interaction on-going• No beginning or end• Peace, crisis, war, post war, peace continuum
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The WhatThe What
EffectsEffects--Based Operations:Based Operations:
Coordinated sets of actionsdirected at shaping the
behaviorof friends, foes, and neutrals
in peace, crisis, and war
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InformationDomain
CognitiveDomain
Physical Domain
ActionObjects/events
Data (representation)
Information (data in context)
Decisionprocesses
Decisions•Choices among alternativesincluding contingent choices
•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others
Directives•Requests for support•Queries•Reports•Efforts to consult
Planning•Missions•Assets•Boundaries•Schedules•Contingencies
Synchronization
Judgment
RedBlue
Uncert
ainty
2. Operations in the Cognitive Domain2. Operations in the Cognitive Domain
White
RedBlue
Shared Awareness
Mental ModelPrior Knowledge
Deep understandingof situation•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures
Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives
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InformationDomain
CognitiveDomain
Physical Domain
ActionObjects/events
Data (representation)
Information (data in context)
Options•Choices among alternatives•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others
Directives
Planning
Synchronization
Judgment
RedBlue
Uncert
aintyShared Awareness
Mental Model Observer•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures
Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives
Prior Knowledge
SocietalDomain
ReligionEducation
Government And Politics
InstitutionalCulture
Economy
SocialStructure
History &Culture
……and Beyond and Beyond -- TThe Societal Domainhe Societal Domain
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Rules of the GameRules of the Game
• Actions create effects … on any observer who can see them
• Effects occur simultaneously...– ...on four different levels of military operations and– ...in political, diplomatic, economic and military arenas
• Effects are cumulative and interrelated• Effects are physical and psychological
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InformationDomain
CognitiveDomain
Physical Domain
ActionObjects/events
Data (representation)
Information (data in context)
Options•Choices among alternatives•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others
Directives
Planning
Synchronization
Judgment
RedBlue
Uncert
aintyShared Awareness
Mental Model Observer•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures
Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives
Prior Knowledge
SocietalDomain
ReligionEducation
Government And Politics
InstitutionalCulture
Economy
SocialStructure
History &Culture
Continuing Action Reaction CyclesContinuing Action Reaction Cycles
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3. Complexity3. Complexity• The Complicated
– Known or knowable cause and effect chain– Inputs/outputs proportional; whole equals sum of parts
• The Complex– Multiple interdependent variables– Changing cause and effect chain – Inputs and outputs not proportional; whole does not
equal sum of the parts• The Complex Adaptive
– Not only complex but evolves independently• …and The System of Complex Adaptive Systems
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Group
Organization
Community
Societal
Supranational
Organism
Organ
Cell
OOOOOOOoooooooo
oooooooooooooo
James Grier Miller, Living Systems
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Tactical Unit
Operational Command
Military
State
International
Warfighter OOOOOOO
Al Qaeda
Regional Franchise
Local Network
Terrorist Cell
Terrorist
State versus Non-State Actor
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Tactical
Operational
Military-Strategic
Geo-Strategic
International
Individual OOOOOOO
Military Operations
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Problem: Orchestrating ActionsProblem: Orchestrating Actions• What will they see?
– Focus– Force applied– Scale– Scope– Timing
• speed• duration• synchronicity
– Visibility
What is done
How it is done
Tools For
Shaping
+
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Sea Air Ground Space
Theater
Tactical
Operational
Military Strategic
EconomicMilitary
Political
Geo-strategic
Problem: Deconflicting ActionsProblem: Deconflicting Actions
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Peace Crisis Post PeaceHostilities
Tra
nsiti
on
Tra
nsiti
on
Synchronization Synchronization vsvs SelfSelf--synchronizationsynchronization
The Fedora Curve
Major Combat
Coo
rdin
atio
n
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Problem: Defining EffectsProblem: Defining Effects
•Destruction •Physical Attrition•Chaos/ Entropy•Foreclosure
•Passive•Active
•Shock•Psychological
Attrition
OverallEffect Behavior
Kinds of Effects
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Problem: Effects CascadesProblem: Effects Cascades
Physical ActionObject/Event
DirectPhysical Effect
First Indirect Physical Effect
IndirectPhysical effect
IndirectPhysical Effect
IndirectPhysical Effect
Second IndirectPhysical Effect
Indirect PsychologicalEffect
IndirectPsychological
Effect
IndirectPsychological
Effect
First Cascade Second Cascade
IndirectPsychological
Effect
IndirectPsychological
Effect
Indirect PsychologicalEffect
Indirect PsychologicalEffect
“Other” ObserverIndirectPsychological Effects
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InformationDomain
CognitiveDomain
Physical Domain
ActionObjects/events
Data (representation)
Information (data in context)
Options•Choices among alternatives•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others
Directives
Planning
Synchronization
Judgment
RedBlue
Uncert
aintyShared Awareness
Mental Model Observer•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures
Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives
Prior Knowledge
SocietalDomain
ReligionEducation
Government And Politics
InstitutionalCulture
Economy
SocialStructure
History &Culture
Problem: Feedback Problem: Feedback ---- What can we know?What can we know?
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4. Implications for Network Centric Operations4. Implications for Network Centric Operations
• Options not answers
• Knowledge Mobilization not Data Base Management
• Agility and Adaptation not Stock Plans
• Man in the Loop not Man out of the Loop
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••Constructing a Decision SpaceConstructing a Decision Space
Scale•How much?
Scope•How?•Where?•With what?
Timing•How agile? •How fast?•For how long?•How synchronized?
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Scale
Scope
Timing
Decision Space
*Threat #1Threat #1
*Threat #2Threat #2
Capabilities/ Networking Define Decision SpaceCapabilities/ Networking Define Decision Space
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Creating OptionsCreating Options
C(N-1)
.(N. =OptionsSN)
C
•Capabilities Tool Kit•Social Networking AND Communications Networking
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OptionsOptions--Based Decision SpaceBased Decision Space
Scale
Scope
Timing
OwnDecision Space
Adversary #1 Decision SpaceAdvantage
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OptionsOptions--Based Decision SpaceBased Decision Space
Scale
Scope
Timing
RevisedDecision Space
Adversary #1 Decision SpaceAdvantage
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OptionsOptions--Based Decision SpaceBased Decision Space
Scale
Scope
TimingOwn
Decision Space
Adversary #2 Decision Space
Advantage
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– Complex Adaptive Systems• Cannot entirely predict threat/ problem
– Three Different Kinds of Information /Knowledge• Sensor-derived information • Human-derived reporting
– Ambiguous, subjective, uncertain– Not readily machineable/ Natural language
• Expertise– Based on mastery of complex subject– Cannot communicate mastery
•• Knowledge MobilizationKnowledge Mobilization
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– Fusion• Data, Information, Knowledge • Expertise from across the nation/ coalition• Flexible, ad hoc, changing communities of expertise
– Multiple Interfaces• Machine-Machine• Man-Machine• Man-Man
•• Knowledge MobilizationKnowledge Mobilization
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Interacting ComplexAdaptive Systems
Adaptation
Options
Agility
Knowledge
Tool kit•Scale•Scope•Timing
•Flexibility•Resilience•Innovation•Responsiveness•Adaptation•Robustness
•Knowledge Mobilization•Data/Information•Expertise•Situational Awareness
•Individual•Group
•• Agility:Agility: Putting it TogetherPutting it Together
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Conclusions: Conclusions:
• Complex Security Environment/ Effects-Based Operations impose new requirements
• Need to move from Networks• Faster targeting• More efficient attrition …and • “man out of the loop”
• To Networking• Complex, multi-level, multi-arena responses• Social AND Communications Networking
• Supporting the man in the loop
Second Generation Network Centric OperationsSecond Generation Network Centric Operations
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BackBack--up: Effectsup: Effects--Based OperationsBased OperationsTwo Main US Tracks:• Track One: Effects-based “Targeting”
– Air Force School• Precision strike to create non-linear psychological effects• Major combat focus
• Track Two: Effects-Based Operations– Maneuverist School –Special Forces/ Marine Corps– Naval School – Crisis Operations– Actions to create psychological effects on observers
• Stimulus and response approach • Focus: Peace, crisis, war …and post-conflict stabilization• Applied national power