The Wanneroo labour market

The Wanneroo labour marketRisks and challenges

Ivan NevilleBranch Manager

Labour Market Research and Analysis

Wanneroo resident profile

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016; ABS, Estimated Resident Population, 2012, 2017; Department of Jobs and Small Business, Small Area Labour Markets, June Quarter 2018; ABS Labour Force, October 2018 (Seasonally adjusted data*, 12 month averages of original data**)

Wanneroo LGA

WA

Adult population growth (2012 to 2017)

19.0% 5.8%

Unemployment rate 8.5%(June Quarter 2018)

5.7%*(October 2018)

Youth unemployment rate 17.4% 14.6%**

Educational attainment

(25-34 year olds)

Certificate III & IV 28% 25%

Bachelor Degree or Higher

25% 34%

Proportion born overseas 41% 32%

7th

fastest growing LGA in WA

+24,500

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Sep

-20

12

Dec

-20

12

Mar

-20

13

Jun

-20

13

Sep

-20

13

Dec

-20

13

Mar

-20

14

Jun

-20

14

Sep

-20

14

Dec

-20

14

Mar

-20

15

Jun

-20

15

Sep

-20

15

Dec

-20

15

Mar

-20

16

Jun

-20

16

Sep

-20

16

Dec

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16

Mar

-20

17

Jun

-20

17

Sep

-20

17

Dec

-20

17

Mar

-20

18

Jun

-20

18

Sep

-20

18

Recent employment growth in Perth

Source: ABS Labour Force, September 2018 (12 month averages of original data)

Employment increase over past year:

Perth: +2.0%Australia: +2.5%

Mining employment in WA has increased, but still below peak

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120A

ug-

20

11

Dec

-20

11

Ap

r-2

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2

Au

g-2

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2

Dec

-20

12

Ap

r-2

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3

Au

g-2

01

3

Dec

-20

13

Ap

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01

4

Au

g-2

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4

Dec

-20

14

Ap

r-2

01

5

Au

g-2

01

5

Dec

-20

15

Ap

r-2

01

6

Au

g-2

01

6

Dec

-20

16

Ap

r-2

01

7

Au

g-2

01

7

Dec

-20

17

Ap

r-2

01

8

Au

g-2

01

8

Emp

loym

ent

('0

00

)

Mining employment

increased by 6700 over the past year

Still 19,400 below the Feb

2013 peak

Source: ABS Labour Force, August Quarter 2018 (4 quarter averages of original data); Government of Western Australia Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety

Mineral exploration expenditure in 2017-18 is up 16% on the previous year

Number of online vacancies has been increasing……but it is still well below the peak from 2012

Internet Vacancy Index, Perth

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, Internet Vacancy Index regional data September 2018

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Occupations with the most online ads:

1. Automotive & Engineering Trades Workers (1029)

2. General-Inquiry Clerks, Call Centre Workers, & Receptionists (893)

3. Business, Finance & Human Resource Professionals (772)

4. Sales Assistants & Salespersons (640)

5. ICT Professionals (626)

4.4%

8.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun

-11

Sep

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

The unemployment rate remains highWanneroo LGA

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, Small Area Labour Markets, June Quarter 2018;ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016

Census 2016From 2011 to 2016:

42,200 moved into the area:• 29,100 Employed• 2,900 Unemployed• 10,200 not in Labour Force

9.2% UE rate

Employment hasn’t kept up with population growthEmployment to population ratio, Wanneroo LGA

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, Small Area Labour Markets, June Quarter 2018;ABS, Estimated Resident Population, 2017; ABS Labour Force, August Quarter 2018 (4 quarter averages of original data);

Note: Employment to population ratio figures for Wanneroo are estimates derived from Small Area labour market data

Some areas are worse than othersUnemployment rates by SA2, June Quarter 2018

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, Small Area Labour Markets, June Quarter 2018

Bottom 2% of SA2s in Australia

*Defined under the 2011 ASGS

Youth unemployment is a problem in many areas Unemployment rates by SA2, 15-24 year olds, 2016

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016

8th highest youth unemployment

rate in WA (out of 200+ SA2s)

Who is getting left behind?jobactive caseload, Wanneroo LGA

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, administrative data as at end of October, 2013 and 2018

Total caseload: 7,000 +2,500

+1,000

Change since 2013:Wanneroo: +56%Australia: -17%

2454

883 885

293

2480

1487

2067

967

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 to 11 months 12 to 23 months 24 to 59 months 60+ months

2013 2018

Time on unemployment benefits

Long term unemployed increasingly marginalisedjobactive caseload, Wanneroo LGA

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, administrative data as at end of October, 2013 and 2018

+1200 - largest increase of any region in WA

Many VLTU have no post-school educationJob seekers on benefits for 24 months or more, Wanneroo LGA

Source: Department of Jobs and Small Business, administrative data as at end of October 2018

Migrants are often underutilisedPersons with a Bachelor degree or higher, Wanneroo LGA

Source: ABS Census of population and housing, 2016

*For this analysis, ‘lower skilled occupation’ is defined as Labourers, Machinery Operators and Drivers, and Sales Workers.

*

What of the future?

Education requirements

Geographical location of demand

Value of personal attributes /

employability skills

Impact onlabour needs

The jobs market will continue to change

Mismatches between the demand and supply of labour can constrain growth and displace workers

Factors driving change:

Technological change / automation

Global forces

Government interventions

Demographic changes

Source: ABS, Estimated Resident Population, 2016; Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id, October 2017

Population projected to more than doubleTotal population, Wanneroo LGA

122,100 jobs needed by 2041 to improve employment-to-population ratio to 2013 levels

There is a shift to the services sector…Change 2011 to 2016, Wanneroo LGA

Source: ABS Census of population and housing, 2011 and 2016 (Place of Work)

Employability skills are vital in services:• People skills• Enthusiasm• Personal presentation• Customer service-710

-220

310

330

390

890

950

1,000

1,120

1,200

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Administrative and Support Services

Other Services

Retail Trade

Health Care and Social Assistance

Accommodation and Food Services

Construction

Education and Training

Note: Raw numbers may be underestimates due to a high number of ‘Not Stated’ responses in the 2016 Census

…and a long-term shift towards higher skilled jobs…Western Australia, share of employment

Source: ABS Labour Force detailed quarterly release, August 2018, 4 quarter averages of original data

Jobs requiring a Bachelor Degree now account for nearly a third of

employment

…but growth in skilled jobs in Wanneroo is slow2011 to 2016 Census

Source: ABS Census of population and housing, 2011 and 2016 (Place of Work)

+12,200 (+38%)

Jobs in Wanneroo

+625,500 (+6%)

Jobs across Australia

High skilled jobs* account

for 22% of this growth

High skilled jobs* account

for 49% of this growth

*Jobs requiring a Bachelor Degree or Higher (Skill Level 1)

28%

1%

22%

11%

38%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

No non-schoolqualification

Certificate I & II

Certificate III & IV

Advanced Diploma andDiploma

Bachelor Degree orHigher

Australia

34%

2%

28%

11%

25%

41%

2%

26%

10%

21%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

No non-schoolqualification

Certificate I & II

Certificate III & IV

Advanced Diploma andDiploma

Bachelor Degree orHigher

2011 2016

Education levels are improving…Wanneroo LGA, 25-34 year olds

Source: ABS Census of population and housing, 2011 and 2016

…but there is still a way to go

Many new higher skilled jobs being given to people outside the region

Wanneroo LGA, 2011-2016

3,000 new higher skilled jobs* since 2011

+150 +830 +1,370 +650

Age groups

Where do they live?

+1,690 +450 +260 +160 +440

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 and 2016

*For this analysis, ‘higher skilled jobs’ refers to Manager and Professional jobs

Since 2012, job ads requiring this have increased by over 200%

Employers increasingly seeking these transferable skills

Source: Foundation for Young Australians, The New Basics, April 2016

Creativity

Problem solving

Financial literacyCritical thinking

Presentation of information

Digital literacy

Concluding thoughts

• Labour market conditions are still challenging, with some areas and groups struggling in particular

• Young people struggling to get a foothold in the labour market

• Can more be done to help people before they become long-term unemployed?

• Higher skilled jobs are growing, but at a lower rate than the national average

• Many of these jobs are going to people outside the area

• Education levels have improved, but still below the state average

• Can qualified migrants be better utilised?

Further Information

– www.jobs.gov.au/recruitment-conditions

– http://lmip.gov.au/

– www.jobs.gov.au/skillshortages

– https://www.jobs.gov.au/australian-jobs-publication

– www.joboutlook.gov.au

– http://whatsnext.jobs.gov.au

If you have any questions about the presentation please contact the Recruitment and Employer Needs Analysis Section [email protected]