The Value of Gartner
The Value of Gartner
2© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Allen Liao 廖銘仁 學歷 : B. S. 清華大學核子工程系 M.S. Manufacturing Engineering, Syracuse University, New York, USA 經歷 : 15 years in IT and High-Tech Manufacturing Industry - 業務協理 , Gartner Taiwan - 專案經理 , HP 顧問事業群 , HP Taiwan & Singapore - 資深顧問 , SAP Taiwan - Project Logistic & Global Supply Chain Leader, Ericsson Taiwan - 資材部經理 , Ultima Electronics
3© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
- Gartner Company Profile
- Gartner Services
- Sample of Gartner Research & Deliverables
4© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Gartner Company Profile
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner, TCO and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
5© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
E-Business Hype Cycle ~Gartner made in 1998
We are here
Trigger Peak of InflatedExpectations
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope ofEnlightenment
Plateau ofProductivity
Year
E-Business Forever
E-Tailing
Dot-com starts
Internet / WWW
Dot-com share fallout
Investor disillusionment
Business disillusionment “True” E-Business emerges
Optimized E-Business
E-Business subsumed
into corporate DNA
1997 1998 1999 2000 20011990-1996 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082003
Visibility
1998
6© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Corporate Overview
Gartner. The leader in technology research. Trusted – 信賴的 Objective – 客觀的 Results-oriented – 結果導向的
7© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Gartner Basic
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT)
Founded in 1979
Headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, U.S.A.
Delivery : technology-related insight necessary for our clients to make the right decisions, every day
Client base:- CIOs and other senior IT executives in corporations,
education institutions and government agencies
- Technology companies
- Investment community.
8© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
People Data
Number of employees 3,900
Number of analysts 650
Number of consultants 550
Number of quota-bearing salespeople 655
Direct contact with clients: Yes
ISO 9000,ISO 9001,ISO 12000
9© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Client Data
Number of countries where we have clients : 75
Client organizations worldwide: 45,000 clients representing 10,000 distinct organizations worldwide
Client base:- Technology sector is responsible for approximately 30% of
Gartner revenue
- Other sectors comprise 70% of Gartner revenue
Fortune 1000 penetration 66%, Global 500 penetration 80%
10© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
University Clients
- U of California (USA) - U of Chicago (USA) - U of Cambridge (UK) - U of Hong Kong (HK) - Singapore Management University (Singapore) - SUNY - Buffalo, Albany (USA) - MIT (USA) - U of Illinois (USA) - U of London (UK) - U of Michigan - Ann Arbor (USA) - U of Minnesota (USA) - U of Washington (USA) - U of Wisconsin (USA) - U of Israel (Israel) - U of Berlin (Germany) ……etc
11© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Gartner Services
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner, TCO and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
12© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Gartner Delivers Insight Through
Research
Executive Programs
Consulting
Events
13© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Gartner is in a unique position to deliver insight you can’t find anywhere else.
“Gartner acts as an extension to my staff and as an intelligent filter to the oceans of information that I need to track and monitor. With Gartner, I get opinions that are objective, unbiased and candid.”JOSEPH D. “JODY” GILESCIO, Under Armour
66% of Fortune 1000
80% ofGlobal 500
70+ Conferences
3,100CIOs
45,000Clients
17,000Benchmarks
650Analysts
75 Countries
215,000Client
Inquiries
10,000Media
Inquiries
2,000Consulting
Engagements
Source: This data is accurate as of March 31, 2006.
14© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Hype Cycles
Hype cycles help determine when a technology will pay off.
15© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Magic Quadrants
Magic Quadrants help you position the leading players.
16© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Example: Magic Quadrant for North America ERP Service Providers, 2006
18© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Sample of Gartner Research & Deliverables
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner, TCO and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
19© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Worldwide DRAM Forecast, 1Q07:Who is Adding Capacity?
0
50
100
150
200
250
1Q
06
2Q
06
3Q
06
4Q
06
1Q
07
2Q
07
3Q
07
4Q
07
1Q
08
2Q
08
3Q
08
4Q
08
Others Samsung Micron
Qimonda Hynix Nanya
Elpida Powerchip ProMOS
Billions of Megabytes
8% 158%
21% 163%
26% 193%
26% 193%
19% 197%
% New Cap. % Increase4Q08 3Q06/4Q08
Total 100% 182%
20© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Regional Semiconductor Packaging Materials Markets
2006 Estimate= $14.7 Billion
2006E 2007F %$B $B Change
China 1.45 1.72 19%
Europe 0.51 0.56 10%
Japan 3.14 3.51 12%
Korea 2.21 2.54 15%
North America 0.38 0.34 -11%
Taiwan 3.59 3.97 11%
Southeast Asia 3.45 4.00 16%
Total Regions 14.73 16.64 13%
Region
Totals may not add due to rounding
Southeast Asia23%
Taiwan25%
North America
2%
Korea15%
Japan21%
Europe4%
China10%
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription March 2007
21© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
CIOs expect modest increases in their IT budgets.
2007
3.0%
2006
2.7%
2005
2.5%
2004
1.3%
2002
1.4%
2003
0.0%0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Ant
icip
ated
ave
rag
e IT
bud
get
incr
ease
Trend Line
Half of CIOs expect their budgets to increase an average of 4.9% while 30 percent expect no change and 20 percent expect an average decline of 1.5%
22© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
CIOs must to do more than control cost and service quality to meet business expectations.
2007 2006 2005
Delivering projects that enable business growth 1 1 1
Linking business and IT strategies and plans 2 2 2
Improving the quality of IS service delivery 3 7 7
Attracting, developing, and retaining IS personnel 4 5 **
Demonstrating the business value of IT 5 4 3
Providing new types of information (e.g.: analytics) 6 * *
Developing or managing a flexible technology infrastructure 7 8 **
Improving IT governance 8 9 10
Building business skills in the IS organization 9 3 9
Leading change initiatives (involving more than IT) 10 * *
Top 10 CIO Strategies:
* New question for 2007 ** New question for 2006
To what extent is each of the following a priority for you in 2007?
23© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Ben Lee 李輔邦
學歷 :
B.A., 交通大學管理科學系 M.B.A., 交通大學管理科學研究所 經歷 :
17 years in Semiconductor Industry
- 首席分析師 , Gartner Taiwan
- 專案經理 , 資策會 MIC
業務 / 行銷經理 , Clevo Computer Inc. Taiwan
Taiwan Semiconductor Industry –Strength in Diversity
Ben LeePrincipal Analyst, Semiconductor [email protected]
25© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast
Key Issues- Global Semiconductor Market Overview
- What is the semiconductor market forecast in Taiwan through 2011? by applications, and by device…..
- Who are leaders of semiconductor vendors in Taiwan?
- Taiwan’s semiconductor industry update
26© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Billions of Dollars and Revenue Growth
$0
$60
$120
$180
$240
$300
$360
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
3Q06 4Q06
1Q07 2Q07
$22224.6%
$156 1.4%
$17814.5%
$269 2.5%
$237 7.3%
$263 10.2%
$3147.2%
$2938.7%
$3160.9%
Revenue CAGR
06/11 = 5.1%
Source: Gartner Dataquest Estimates (May 2007)
$22224.6%
$235 5.7%
$260 10.7%
$276 6.4%
$2998.2%
$306 2.2%
$326 6.7% 1Q07
$3376.6%
Semiconductor Forecast: 2Q07 UpdateMarket Weakening
$352 7.7%
27© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
WW Semiconductor Market and Electronics Equipment Growth Rates
0
5
10
15
20
25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Semiconductor IndustryElectronics Industry
28© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast
Key Issues
- Global Semiconductor Market Overview
- What is the semiconductor market forecast in Taiwan through 2011? by applications, and by device ...
- Who are leaders of semiconductor vendors in Taiwan?
- Taiwan’s semiconductor industry update
29© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Military
Industrial
Automotives
Consumers
Comms
DP
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Will Drop to US$ 9.2 Billion in 2011, from US$ 12.8 in 2006
Source: Gartner Dataquest Estimates (May 2007)
Market CAGR
06/11 = -6.4%
Millions of US Dollars
WW% 5.7% 4.9% 4.2% 3.8% 3.4% 3.1% 2.8%
Market size in Taiwan has dropped down gradually…
30© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Military
Industrial
Automotives
Consumers
Comms
DP
Taiwan ODMs Will Grap More Semiconductor PTAM to US$ 82 Billion in 2011, from US$ 59 in 2006
Source: Gartner Dataquest Estimates (May 2007)
Market CAGR
06/11 = 6.6%
Millions of US Dollars
WW% 21% 22.6% 23.4% 23.7% 24% 24.3% 24.7%
Market size is increasing dramatically over the period…
31© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Non-opticalSensors General PurposeLogic Discrete
Optoelectronics
Analog
ASIC
Microcomponent
Memory
ASSP
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast by Device
Source: Gartner Dataquest Estimates (May 2007)
Percentage
32© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
AP High TAM Applications Semiconductor 2006 2011 2006-2011 2006 2011
Total Available Market (M$) (M$) CAGR Share Share
Digital Cellular, 2.5G 16,169 14,045 -2.8% 11.7% 6.9%
Mobile PC 13,139 25,805 14.5% 9.5% 12.7%
Digital Cellular, 3G 9,089 33,831 30.1% 6.6% 16.6%
Desktop PC (CPU and memory) 8,872 7,425 -3.5% 6.4% 3.7%
Desktop PC (motherboard) 5,404 7,230 6.0% 3.9% 3.6%
RS3-Flash Cards 4,593 6,268 6.4% 3.3% 3.1%
Portable Media Players – Flash 4,349 5,765 5.8% 3.2% 2.8%
Flat Panel Monitor 4,007 5,983 8.3% 2.9% 2.9%
Graphic Cards 3,977 4,222 1.2% 2.9% 2.1%
Rigid Disk Drive 3,879 5,967 9.0% 2.8% 2.9%
Video Game Consoles 3,597 3,978 2.0% 2.6% 2.0%
Optical Disk Drive 3,171 4,754 8.4% 2.3% 2.3%
Digital Still Camera 2,721 3,556 5.5% 2.0% 1.7%
Others 54,850 74,412 6.3% 39.8% 36.6%
SUM 137,815 203,240
8.1%
33© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
AP Emerging Applications Semiconductor 2006 2011 2006-2011 2006 2011
Total Available Market (M$) (M$) CAGR Share Share
Digital Cellular, 3G 9,089 33,831 30.1% 6.6% 16.6%
GPS, Portable Navigation Device 951 3,146 27.0% 0.7% 1.5%
Airbags 336 916 22.2% 0.2% 0.5%
TV, LCD 2,147 4,683 16.9% 1.6% 2.3%
Server, Entry-Level 845 1,760 15.8% 0.6% 0.9%
Smart Cards 632 1,270 15.0% 0.5% 0.6%
PC, Mobile 13,139 25,805 14.5% 9.5% 12.7%
LAN Switches 894 1,733 14.1% 0.6% 0.9%
Wireless LAN Infrastructure 719 1,379 13.9% 0.5% 0.7%
Appliances 697 1,202 11.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Video Game Handhelds 1,379 2,296 10.7% 1.0% 1.1%
Security/Energy Management 705 1,142
10.1% 0.5%
0.6%
Others 106,280 124,076 3.1% 77.1% 61.0%
Sum 137,815 203,240 8.1%
34© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast
Key Issues- Global Semiconductor Market Overview
- What is the semiconductor market forecast in Taiwan through 2011? by applications, and by device …..
- Who are leaders of semiconductor vendors in Taiwan?
- Taiwan’s semiconductor industry update
35© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2006 Taiwan Semiconductor Market Share Leaders
2005 2006 2005(M$) 2006(M$) Growth 2006
Rank Rank Revenue Revenue (%) Share (%)
1 1 Intel 5,168 4,572 -12% 15%
2 2 Samsung Electronics 1,931 2,059 7% 7%
10 3 Advanced Micro Devices 438 1,822 316% 6%
3 4 Texas Instruments 1,220 1,548 27% 5%
5 5 Hynix Semiconductor 736 1,029 40% 3%
6 6 NVIDIA 733 951 30% 3%
7 7 Powerchip Semiconductor 600 923 54% 3%
4 8 MediaTek 925 888 -4% 3%
8 9 Infinion (+Qimonda) 564 655 18% 2%
9 10 Toshiba 524 618 18% 2%
Others 13,593 14,893 10% 50%
Total Market 26,432 29,968 13% 100%
36© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast
Key Issues- Global Semiconductor Market Overview
- What is the semiconductor market forecast in Taiwan through 2011? by applications, and by device …..
- Who are leaders of semiconductor vendors in Taiwan?
- Taiwan’s semiconductor industry update
37© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2006 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturers Leaders
Company Name 2005 2006 AGR
Nanya Technology 1440 2111 47%
MediaTek Inc. 1438 1609 12%
PowerChip Semiconductor 1027 1513 47%
ProMOS Technologies 871 1462 68%
Novatek 809 964 19%
Himax 540 743 38%
Winbond Electronics 655 629 -4%
Macronix International 511 615 20%
VIA Technologies 590 559 -5%
Realtek Semiconductor 352 380 8%
others 4179 4779 14%
Total Taiwan 12,412 15,364 24%
global share 8.0% 8.6%
38© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2006 Taiwan Semiconductor Foundry Leaders
company name 2005 2006 AGR(%)
TSMC 8,228 9,716 18%
UMC 2,882 3,191 11%
PowerChip Semiconductor 114 122 7%
Winbond Electronics 14 16 14%
Vanguard 353 398 13%
Epsil 75 92 23%
Mosel-Vitelic 80 99 24%
total foundry 11,746 13,634 16%
39© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2006 Taiwan Semiconductor Capital Spending
2005 2006 20072006GR 2007GR
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Group 2,527.0 2,473.7 2,801.0 -2.1% 13.2%
Powerchip 1,308.7 2,600.0 2,000.0 98.7% -23.1%
Nanya technology 80.0 122.0 1,900.0 52.5% 1457.4%
ProMOS 860.0 862.0 1,875.0 0.2% 117.5%
Inotera (was Hwaya Semiconductor) 718.0 1,413.0 1,229.0 96.8% -13.0%
United Microelectronics Group 722.0 1,018.0 1,006.0 41.0% -1.2%
Vanguard International Semiconductor 25.0 36.4 225.0 45.6% 518.1%
Others 929.5 861.1 495.3 -7.4% -42.5%
Taiwan Companies 7,170.2 9,386.2 11,531.3 30.9% 22.9%
Global Share 15.2% 16.7% 20.2%
40© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast
Complementary….
41© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Cellular Phone Production Forecast, Worldwide
Unit: K
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2G Cellular 2.5G Cellular 3G Cellular Total Cellular
2G Cellular CAGR(06-11): - 42.4%
2.5G Cellular CAGR(06-11): - 2.9%
3G Cellular CAGR(06-11): 32.9%
Driver for semiconductor market:
Higher-than-expected demand for memory, especially flash, could boost overall semiconductor content and increase growth for the semiconductor market.
Advanced mobile devices, offering digital services and robust access to the Internet at attractive prices, could boost sales of 3G devices.
The addition of functions such as GPS functionality and mobile TV could add to the cost of components and increase overall semiconductor value in the handset and devices for enterprise users.
42© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Manufacturers' Sales of Mobile Terminals to End Users: Worldwide, 2006 and 2005
manufacturer 06 units (K) 06 mkt shr 05 units (K) 05 mkt shr Mkt shr change
Nokia 344,916 34.8% 265,615 32.5% 2.3%
Motorola 209,251 21.1% 144,920 17.7% 3.4%
Samsung 116,480 11.8% 103,754 12.7% -0.9%
Sony Ericsson 73,642 7.4% 51,774 6.3% 1.1%
LG 61,986 6.3% 54,925 6.7% -0.4%
BenQ Mobile 23,558 2.4% 39,692 4.9% -2.5%
Sagem 15,893 1.6% 16,327 2.0% -0.4%
Sharp 12,589 1.3% 9,881 1.2% 0.1%
Sanyo 9,040 0.9% 10,690 1.3% -0.4%
NEC 8,403 0.8% 10,572 1.3% -0.5%
Ohters 115,105 11.6% 108,414 13.4% -1.8%
Total 990,863 100% 816,563 100%
ODM Handsets as Percentage of Total is expected to be around 18% in 2006.
43© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Taiwanese ODMs: Strong R&D Keeps Them Competitive in 2006
Name Own brand
Technologies supported
Technology supplier
Customers Shipm. 05(K)
Shipm. 06(K)
Shipm. 07(K)
Arima Comm.
- GSM/WCDMA Broadcom, Agere, Ericsson Mobile
Sony Ericsson, NEC, LG, O2, iSmart
12,000 13,000 20,000
Asus Comm.
- GSM Infineon Technology
Vodafone, O2 600 600 1,000
BenQ Mobile
BenQ-Siemens
GSM/WCDMA, CDMA
- - 3,980 2,400 -
Chi Mei Comm.
- GSM/WCDMA TI, Infineon Motorola 700 12,000 30,000
Compal Comm.
- GSM/WCDMA, CDMA
TI Motorola, Alcatel, Eastcom, Datalog, Panasonic,
30,000 65,000 75,000
HTC Dopod WCDMA, CDMA
Broadcom, TI, Ericsson Mobile, Qualcomm, Samsung
O2, T-Mobile, Orange, Palm, Dopod International, NTT DoCoMo, Cingular Wireless, Softbank
6,850 8,000 10,000
Inventec Okwap GSM - Huawei technologies, JiTong 1,800 2,000 3,000
MiTAC Mio GSM Intel Own-brand only 500 500 500
Quanta - GSM ADI, Qualcomm Toshiba, O2, NEC, HP, E-ten 2,900 2,000 2,600
Others 9,690 1,000 1,200
Total 69,020 106,500 143,300
44© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Personal Computer Production Forecast, Worldwide
Unit: K
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Desktop PCs Mobile PCs Total PCs
Desktop PCs CAGR(06-11): 4.0%
Mobile PCs CAGR(06-11): 18.2%
Forecast Overview:
The upward revision reflects expectations for stronger mobile PC shipment growth as well as more-robust emerging market growth.
Deskbased PC shipment growth has been reduced on expectations of weaker replacement activity and more-aggressive mobile-for-deskbased substitution in mature markets.
Worldwide PC ASP will decline 9.7 percent in 2006 and 7.3 percent in 2007. Windows Vista impact could drive demand gradually in 2007.
45© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Complement—1. Focus Strategy on design-in TAM (1)
Manufacturing Model Brand Design Purchase ProductionOEM Y YODM N YEMS N N YBrand (Assembley Only) Y N N NR&D Only N Y N NSubsystems (not EE) N Y
(Blanks indicate Y or N is possible)
Remember:
OEM, ODM, EMS etc are not Company Types but Manufacturing Models
Five major EE manufacturing models
46© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Complement--2. Focus Strategy on design-in TAM (2)
Equipment Brand Design-Win Purchasing
Suppliers Potential Potential Potential
Canon 977 977 98
Sony 818 818 655
Sanyo 53 692 692
Premier 264 371 148
Kodak 634 290 290
Panasonic 264 264 132
Casio 132 132 132
Fuji Photo 132 58 26
Konica Minolta 95 53 26
Nikon 132 24 24
Olympus 158 21 21
Ricoh 48 11 11
Pentax 26 11 0
Others 50 62 1529
Total 3,783 3,783 3,783
Semiconductor Consumption per EEM(US$M)
Gartner 2007 plan includes
3TAM reports for:
1. 3G Phone
2. Mobile PC
3. Video Game Console
4. Wireless LAN Infrstr
5. LCD TV
6. Portable Navigation dev.
7. Airbag
8. DSL CPE
3TAM analysis for Digital Still Cameras: