The U.S.-Japan Relationship Under Prime Minister Noda: Stuck in Neutral?

The U.S.-Japan Relationship Under Prime Minister Noda:

Stuck in Neutral?

Eric JohnstonDeputy Editor, The Japan Times

Nov. 9, 2011, Doshisha University

Why is the Japan-U.S. Relationship important to Japan?

America is Japan’s second largest trading partner after China.

Japan has a security treaty with the U.S. that stations American troops on Japanese soil for Japan’s defense.

Japan and the U.S. have common values (advanced industrial democratic principles) and common strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific region.

U.S. culture has permeated Japan and relations between the peoples of both countries are close.

Why is the Japan- U.S. Relationship Important to the U.S.?

Japan is America’s fourth largest export market, and one of the largest owners of U.S. government debt.

Japan serves an important base for the U.S. military in East Asia, which can protect U.S. interests in this part of the world.

Japan serves an important ally to the U.S. in many international forums (the United Nations, APEC, the G-8 and G-20)

Good relations with Japan helps ensure Japan doesn’t turn too much towards China, which the U.S. sees as it’s main international competitor for power and resources.

Foreign Ministry Poll: U.S. Images of Japan in 2011 (as of March 2011)

84% of Americans polled saw Japan as a ``dependable ally’’

42% of those polled felt that Japanese and American people understand each other ``pretty well’’.

92% felt the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty should be maintained.

NOTE: Poll was conducted among 1,200 citizens 18 and over in February and March.

86% believed the Security Treaty at least moderately contributes to peace and stability in region.

97% said Japan was a country with great traditions.

91% believed the Japanese economy to be strong.

88% of those polled said Japan was known for anime, fashion, and food.

So, The Good News is that most American citizens clearly like

Japan and respect the Japanese people.

But what about the official U.S.-Japan

relationship?

THE GOOD: Operation Tomodachi

THE BAD: Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement, Abduction of dual nationality children by Japanese parent.

THE UGLY: Okinawa and the Futenma Relocation Issue

``The Good, the Bad,

and the Ugly’’

I. THE GOOD: Operation Tomodachi

Was a joint operation between the Japanese government and the U.S. Navy, Marines, Air Force, and Army units in Japan and overseas.

Lasted from March 12-May 4

Involved up to 24 naval ships, 189 aircraft, and 24,000 personnel

Rescued 20,000 people in the Tohoku region during the first week (March 12-19)

Activities included:

Removing debris from quake and tsunami, including 5,000 cars that had washed onto airport runways at Sendai airport. Sendai airport began receiving relief supplies from March 15th.

Distributing relief supplies

Repairing airports, roads, bridges,

Searching for survivors Helping out with the

Fukushima crisis and monitoring radiation levels in the area

Photos from Operation Tomodachi

In addition to Operation Tomodachi, the U.S. also:

1) Sent 144 rescue workers with rescue dogs to look for survivors

2) Sent medical and engineering staff to Ofunato, Iwate Pref., as well as supplies. Total private contributions from U.S. citizens to Japan for Tohohoku victims came to about 300 million dollars

II. THE BAD: Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement

WHAT IS THE TPP?

Started off as a possible free trade agreement between Singapore, New Zealand, Chile, and Brunei. Later, the U.S., Australia, Peru, and Vietnam decided to join. Japan now debating on whether or not to join.

U.S. sees TPP as allowing free trade in Asia of manufactured goods, agriculture, investment, intellectual property rights, and labor.

WHO IN THE U.S. WOULD GAIN FROM A TPP AGREEMENT?

1) Large American agricultural companies that mass produce wheat, potatoes, and corn that they want to export to Asia.

2) U.S. defense technology companies that want to sell more weapons to Asia.

3) U.S. energy firms, including fossil fuel and nuclear power firms, as well as renewable energy firms, who want to sell to Asia.

4) Insurance and financial companies seeking to invest in Asian economies

WHO IN JAPAN WOULD GAIN FROM A TPP AGREEMENT?

1) Japanese manufacturing firms looking to expand production and sales in Asian markets.

2) Japanese banks and financial companies seeking easy investment opportunities in Asia.

3) Japanese trading companies seeking to increase the amount of imported goods to Japan.

WHAT WOULD CONSUMERS IN BOTH COUNTRIES GET?

More goods, at cheaper prices?

TPP’S BASIC POLITICAL SITUATION IN JAPANPrime Minister’s Noda’s positive stance towards TPP

has many different kinds of supporters

PRO-TPP FACTION INCLUDES:

1) Major business organizations (Keidanren)

2) Urban-based politicians from the DPJ, LDP, and several other parties.

3) Influential academics who are strongly pro-free trade

4) Most Japanese mainstream media, and all Tokyo-based media

5) Ministry of Trade, Economy, and Industry

6) Younger farmers who see the TPP agreement as a way to reform Japanese agriculture in their favor.

7) Many urbanites who want cheaper imported goods.

At the same time, however, a number of different individuals and groups are strongly opposed to the

TPP

ANTI-TPP FACTION IN JAPAN INCLUDES:

1) Most farmers and fishermen

2) Many people outside of Japan’s major cities (Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Osaka)

3) Small business owners who fear they cannot compete with cheaper imports

4) Politicians from rural areas

5) Urbanites who are happy to pay extra for Japanese products due to fears of safety of foreign products.

6) Academics and medical experts who worry TPP will lead to import of genetically modified foods.

7) Ministry of Agriculture

8) People who are opposed to American-style capitalism

II. THE BAD: Child Abductions and

The Hague Convention

1) At least 269 children born in the United States of a Japanese and American parent were taken by their Japanese parent back to Japan even after a U.S. court ordered the Japanese parent not to leave the country or to turn the child over to the American parent. 2) Japanese courts and the Japanese government have refused formal requests by the U.S. government to either return the child to the U.S. or to let the American parent visit the child in Japan. They say the decision is entirely that of the Japanese parent. 

II. THE BAD: Child Abductions and

The Hague Convention

3) The Hague Convention: an international treaty that calls upon countries to seek the return of abducted children. Japan is the only advanced nation that is not a member to this treaty. 4) In the U.S., this issue is now a major political and social issue. In September 2010, the U.S. Congress passed a resolution calling on Japan to address the problem, provide access to the American parents, and to join the Hague Convention.

5) Other countries, including England, France, Germany, Canada, and Italy, as well as the European Union, all have citizens who have been abducted to Japan. They have also called on Japan to join the Hague Convention.

The Diet announced in May 2011 that it intended to join the Hague Convention.

WHY HASN’T JAPAN JOINED YET?

1) Traditional Mindset Towards Families: When it comes to raising children, Japan’s attitude is ``mother knows best’’. So Japan’s attitude is that even if the mother breaks the law in another country, it’s her child—not the child of both the mother and father –and she has the right to do what she wants with the child.

2) Conservative Legal System: Japanese domestic law favors the mother in any family dispute that goes to court. Signing the Hague Convention would force Japan’s legal system to be more open and challenge the laws that are already in existence.

3) Japanese Family Law and Custom Place Less Emphasis on Children’s Rights: In the U.S., a complex system of laws, regulations, and people exist to help children whose parents are fighting in court to keep them. In Japan, the desires and needs of the child come after the legal rights of the mother, and then the father.

III. THE UGLY: Futenma

The Futenma relocation issue is the most difficult issue facing U.S.-Japan relations and Prime Minister Noda today.

Since 1996, nine Japanese Prime Ministers, three U.S. Presidents, and three Okinawan governors have been unable to resolve this problem.

The Futenma issue is so difficult that many U.S. and Japanese policy experts now refuse to discuss it in public.

What’s the Relocation Agreement?

Current agreement between U.S. and Japan is to relocate 8,000 Marines in Okinawa and 9,000 of their family members to Guam by 2014, in exchange for Japan building a replacement base in northern Okinawa, near Henoko, which is part of Nago city. Japan has agreed to pay roughly 6 billion dollars for Guam relocation as well build the base.

Why Is This Problem So Big?Okinawans see it as part of the fundamental

problem of U.S. bases in Okinawa:

A) Okinawa: 0.6 percent of Japan’s total land area. 74 percent of all U.S. bases in Japan are concentrated there.

B) 20 air space and 28 water areas around Okinawa where people cannot fish and commercial planes cannot fly through.

C) On average, there are 13 criminal cases a month in Okinawa involving U.S. service personnel.

普天間基地

Futenma sits in the middle of Ginowan city

Area near Henoko where replacement facility is to be located

年 /月 担当政府 内容

１９９６年４月 日本・米国 普天間返還が同意された。

１９９６年１２月 日本・米国 官僚会議で普天間移設が協議された（名護市の辺野古か）。

１９９９年１２月 沖縄 名護市長は条件付き普天間移設の計画を受ける。

２０００―２００３年

日本・沖縄 普天間移設計画に関して１１回会議を行う。

２００６年５月 日本・米国 辺野古の新基地で V字型滑走路が同意された

２００６―２００９年

日本・沖縄 普天間移設計画に関して９回会議が行う。

２００９年８月 日本 衆議院選直前、鳩山さんは「移設県外」を発言した

２００９年９月 日本 発足した鳩山政権は「２００６年日米同意を見直す」

２０１０年１月 沖縄 名護市長選辺野古移設を反対している方が当選

２０１０年２月 沖縄 沖縄県議会「県外移設」決議が一致で可決。

２０１０年４月 沖縄 沖縄県内全ての４１村町が「県外移設」を要望

２０１０年５月 日本・米国 日米宣言で辺野古移設を再確認

２０１０年９月 沖縄 名護市議会選で移設反対派は圧倒的に当選。

２０１０年１１月 沖縄 知事選を当選した仲井間知事「県外移設」を呼びかける

２０１１年３月 米国 米国上議員たちが「普天間と嘉手納統合」を促進。

２０１１年９月 日本・沖縄 野田総理がオバマ大統領に「辺野古計画を実現」仲井間知事は「県内移設が無理」

２０１１年１０月 日本・米国 日米防衛大臣会合で日本は「年内に環境評価書を提出」

２０１１年１１月 日本・沖縄 日本防衛大臣が仲井間知事に「沖縄の理解得ずに環境評価書を提出しない」と伝えた。

MAJOR POLITICAL PLAYERS INVOLVED IN FUTENMA ISSUE:

In Japan: Yoshihiko Noda: Has said that he

will push for the Henoko agreement.

Ichiro Ozawa and his faction: Oppose the Henoko agreement, favor building new base outside of Okinawa or Japan.

Seiji Maehara and his faction: Support relocating the base to Henoko. Maehara is considered to be the most pro-American’’ DPJ politician.

LDP (Diet members): Approve of the Henoko agreement

LDP (Okinawa members): Oppose the Henoko agreement

In the U.S.:

Obama Administration: Wants the Henoko agreement to go through.

U.S. Congress: Worried about cost, and has suggested a new relocation plan be agreed to.

The U.S. Army: Past officials have suggested Marines on Okinawa are not necessary

From Neutral To Forward. . .or Reverse:U.S-Japan Relations in 2012:

THREE KEY POLITICAL QUESTIONS:

1) How will Japanese politics change?

2) How will U.S. politics change?

3) How will Okinawan politics change?

How will Japanese politics change?

Will there be a Lower House election in 2012?

If there is a Lower House election, will the DPJ retain control of the Lower House, or will have to govern in partnership with the LDP?

Will the DPJ break up and if so, what does that mean for the other parties?

If there is no Lower House election, will Noda be forced out of office, meaning yet another Prime Minister and Cabinet?

Who in the DPJ would become Prime Minister? Seiji Maehara? Katsuya Okada? Somebody else?

What does the rise of independent politicians like Osaka Pref. Gov. Toru Hashimoto mean for national politics and diplomacy with the U.S.?

How will U.S. politics change?

The U.S. has a presidential election in November 2012. That means most of next year, Obama will be in re-election mode. How will he deal with Japan during this time?

Mitt Romney is the likely Republican challenger. U.S. Japan experts connected to the Republican Party are already advising him. What advice is he getting about Japan?

The U.S. Congress is not in the mood to fund the Futenma relocation agreement, and is aware opposition in Okinawa is quite strong. If Congress completely cuts funding for the relocation to Guam, what will happen to U.S.-Japan arrangements with Futenma?

If Obama wins re-election, will the current Secretary of State remain?

How will Okinawan politics change?

Main Okinawan Political Issues for 2012 

1) Okinawa wants central government approval of a 10 year plan (2012-2022) that will provide central government tax money to Okinawa for various projects.

2) Central government wants Okinawa to change its mind and agree to accept building a new U.S. base at Henoko.

3) Central government says it will provide money to Okinawa for a 10 year plan (2012-2022) but exact amount is not decided. Central government needs to spend money on rebuilding Tohoku as well.

4) Central government must decide exact amount for 10 year plan by early next year. scal year budget starts in April 2012. Fi

5) Okinawa Prefecture assembly elections take place in June 2012. Central government wants pro-Henoko relocation candidates to win. Okinawa wants central government to approve lots of money for 10 year plan.

IN CONCLUSIONThe good feelings between the U.S. and Japan after ``Operation Tomodachi’’ are welcome, but they will not lead to solutions to the other problems in 2012.

With the U.S., and probably Japan, having elections next year, it’s possible that, by this time next year, a new U.S. president and a new Japanese Prime Minister will be in charge.

The approach of the U.S. and Japan towards each other will depend on the economic and financial situations in both countries-both of which are not good. So, the relationship is probably going to be stuck in neutral for a while longer.

THANK YOU!

I WILL NOW TAKE QUESTIONS IN ENGLISH OR JAPANESE.

ご清聴ありがとうございました。今は質疑がある方

気楽に英語でも日本語でも聞いてください。