The Undercover Recovery - Sales Institute seminar September 2013

Drivers & Drinking

The Undercover Recovery Gerard O’Neill/September 2013

Sales Institute of Ireland © Amárach Research 2013

we discover the right answers to our clients’ important questions

1. Consumer Drivers

2. 2020 Scenarios

3. Stretching Strategy

1. Consumer Drivers

Retail Category Confidence Correlation

Supermarkets 0.86 Furniture 0.81 Books and stationary 0.80 Hardware and DIY 0.78 ALL RETAIL SALES 0.77 Pharmacies 0.73 Pubs 0.71 Electrical Goods 0.67 Clothing and Footwear 0.66 Petrol Stations 0.63 Department Stores 0.56 Cars 0.46

Regions Share of

Households 2005

Share of Households

2010

Share of Households

2015

Border 11.5% 12.2% 12.9%

Dublin 26.1% 30.6% 32.0%

Mid East 9.6% 9.9% 10.1%

Mid West 5.0% 6.4% 7.8%

Midlands 9.3% 6.7% 5.0%

South East 10.9% 10.1% 9.4%

South West 14.6% 16.2% 16.9%

West 12.9% 7.9% 6.0%

State 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

24% have used a

smartphone to check for a lower price online while still in the shop

47% have

intentionally researched a product in a shop

before buying it online

Source: Amárach Research May 2013

38% have sold an

item they no longer wanted or use to

someone else rather than throw it away

37% have bought an

item from someone else (not a shop) which had been purchased from a

shop in the past

Source: Amárach Research May 2013

Making my

life easier

Making my

life harder %

Relevant

Google 95% 5% 65%

Friends 90% 10% 72%

Microsoft 87% 13% 45%

Samsung 85% 15% 33%

Facebook 84% 16% 51%

Family 83% 17% 81%

Spouse/Partner 81% 19% 70%

Apple 81% 19% 32%

An Post 73% 27% 51%

Supermarket 71% 29% 75%

Colleagues 67% 33% 43%

TV Service 58% 42% 60%

Mobile Network 55% 45% 65%

Daily Newspaper 52% 48% 42%

Boss 47% 53% 43%

Petrol Station 34% 66% 62%

Electricity Provider 33% 67% 70%

Bank 24% 76% 59%

Government 9% 91% 86%

Source: Amárach Research May 2013

2. 2020 Scenarios

By 2020, Ireland has experienced 5 years of uninterrupted growth, driven by global economic recovery and improving eurozone prospects, stimulating falling unemployment and buoyant consumer spending

By 2020, Ireland has witnessed only fitful bursts of growth, with the economy falling back into recession as the situation worsens in both the eurozone and the UK, with unemployment rising as spending falls Recession

Recovery

E C O N O M Y

Renewal Stagnation SOCIETY

The legacy of the Celtic Tiger’s demise is felt through to 2020 in the form of a continuing personal debt crisis, worsening emigration, family breakdown and rising inequality between income groups, regions and even between generations

A new spirit of social and local revival

emerges as communities and

organisations exploit the potential of new

and existing technologies and

policies to improve individual, local and

national wellbeing

Recession

Recovery

Renewal Stagnation

Fragile Flourish

Fragment Re-Frame

Ireland 2020

35% 25%

25% 15%

Ireland 2020 Scenarios: Summary

SCENARIOS Fragile Fragment Flourish Re-Frame

Dimensions Recovery + Stagnation

Recession + Stagnation

Recovery + Renewal

Recession + Renewal

Winners Over 40s, debt free,

Dublin

Over 60s, retired,

South Dublin

Under 40s, entrepreneurs, east corridor

Under 30s, renters, mobile

Mindset Recuperate Vigilance Network Experiment

Resources Family Legacy Equity SoLoMo

Values Look after your own

Look after yourself

Create your own future

Together is better

Outlook It will get better

It won’t get better

It’s our turn now

This time is different

Winning Brands

Netflix Donnybrook

Fair Travel Dept

Ryanair Aldi/Lidl

DoneDeal

LinkedIn NDRC

Key Capital

AirB&B Etsy

Guaranteed Irish

3. Stretching Strategy

This Time Is Different

Recession

Recovery

Renewal Stagnation

Fragile Flourish

Fragment Re-Frame

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