The Tsunami Risk in the Mediterranean - Auftrag: …€¦ · Regional Tsunami Watch Providers (RTWP) ICG Pacific ICG Caribic ICG Indian Ocean ICG NEAMTWS. ... The Tsunami Risk in

Jörn Lauterjung, Ute Münch, Alexander Rudloff& GITEWS Project-Team

The Tsunami Risk in the Mediterranean

GITEWS

Global Map of Natural Hazards

Pacifc/Caribian 65% Atlantic/Mediterranean 30% Indian Ocean 5%

Tsunami: Where and how often?

:

H>2m: 23 in 10 yearsH> 8m: 8 in 10 yearsH>32m: 1 in 10 years

Tsunami with casualities:Pacific 79% Indic 7% Atlantic/Mediterranean 14%

Tsunami-Events(2000 a. Chr. – 2004)

n = 3034

65%

5% 30%

Tsunami-Sources (1)

Earthquakes (ca. 88 %)

Only

10-20% of strong

submarine quakes result

in a big

Tsunami!

Unified earthquake catalogue for the Euro-Med Regionfor the last millennium

earthquakeepicenters

Mw 6

Grünthal et al. (2008)

Tsunami-Source (2)

Volcanic Eruptions (ca. 5 %)

Tsunami-Sources (3)

1936: 70 m!

Landslides (ca. 4%)

Norwegen 1936

Earthquakes, aftershocks and thermal fluids

Mega-Tsunami

in the

Mediterranean?

1956: M=7.5, H=30 m365 n. Chr.: M=8, H>>30 m

Lissboa Quake (1. 11. 1755)

The International UNESCO Framework Regional Tsunami Watch Providers (RTWP)

ICG PacificICG Caribic

ICG Indian Ocean

ICG NEAMTWS

GITEWS Concept

Warning Centre

Capacity Building

Tide Gauge

Buoy

GPS Station

Seismometer

Pressure sensor

Seminar on Early Warning Systems, Aix-en-Provence, Oct. 14, 2008 J. Lauterjung

Tsunami Early Warning & Mitigation Center

-Other national and internationalrecipients

Seismic Monitoring BuoysTide Gauges Ocean Bottom Units EO DataGPS

-Local Authorities-People at Risk

Systems

Observations

Assessment and Decision Support

Observations

Simulation

Seminar on Early Warning Systems, Aix-en-Provence, Oct. 14, 2008 J. Lauterjung

GITEWS

Inauguration of the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre

11th of November 2008, Jakarta, Indonesia.

Inauguration of theIndonesian Tsunami Early Warning System by the President

GITEWSInternational Activities

SouthAfrica

Australia

IndonesiaMaledives

Sri LankaYemen

Tanzania

Madagascar

Kenya

Thailand

IndiaPakistan

Mediterranean: Known Facts

• Countries around the Mediterranean have already scientific and monitoring infrastructure.

• This is heterogeneous and shows gaps for Early Warning purposes.

• The infrastructure is not fully real time or based only on one communication channel.

• Important subsystems are still missing or not identified: Continous GPS, Parts of an Oceanographic Network, Modelling, Early Warning Centre Infrastructure, Dissemination Infrastructure

• Some degree of Standardisation is missing (Standard Operation Procedures, SOP).

• Official exchange of real time data is a problem.

Instrument Networks

Seismis Stations

Tide Gauges

Proposed System Layout

• Seismic System (fill gaps)

• Continous GPS System (tbd)

• Oceanographic Observing System (fill gaps) (Tide Gauges, Buoy-Systems, Cable Systems)

• Regional Warning Centre Infrastructure including Communication Infrastructure (tbd)

• Modelling and Simulation (tbd)

• Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (tbd)

• Capacity Building (tbd)

Inst

rum

ents

yste

ms

National Warning Centres

Regional Warning Centre 2

Regional Warning Centre 1

Backup

Data

Transfer

Data

Transfer

Dissemination(Mediterranean)

Dissemination(National)

Infor

mation

and D

ata Watches, W

arnings

Haz

ard

Information Flow (schematic)

Earthquake, 13. June 2003, Algeria

What is available

• Experiences and Know How gained from the set-up of an End-to-End Early Warning System in Indonesia (delivered on November 11, 2008) and the set-up of Regional Infrastructures in the Indian Ocean Region

• Modular IT-Infrastructure based on an open architecture, most advanced tools and capable to integrate the different instruments or networks

• Advanced Modelling and Simulation System (including Inundation/Run-up)

• Large parts of the infrastructure adaptable to other hazards• Dissemination strategies and tools available

Commitment of Countries to• participate in the joint effort• allow for open data access from national

sensors or networks• allow access to geospatial data• operate national Early Warning Centres

(24/7-Service)• take over responsibility (and budget) for

maintenance and operation

What else is needed?