OECD OCDE STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 1 The Trade Indicators Project (TIP) An OECD horizontal and international project for creating a web-based, interactive research tool
Jan 25, 2016
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 1
The Trade Indicators Project (TIP)
An OECD horizontal and international project for creating a web-based,
interactive research tool
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 2
The basic philosophy
• Globalisation analysis requires cross-disciplinary thinking and approaches
• A wealth of information needs to be – Sighted– Sorted– Analysed – Validated
• Bring separate database together in one application without duplication
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 3
Progress made
• There was strong agreement that there is growing demand for trade indicators and that the OECD should and could play a very useful role in this context.
• A statistical project, such as the TIP, with a solid methodological underpinning, combining different data sources and which could help to further advance the research agenda was recognized as a major possible tool for the international research community.
• OECDs richness of available international databases, ready to be used, was recognised as well as its competence and expertise in methodological questions
• There was agreement that OECDs Roundtable approach should be continued and regularly reported to the Trade Experts meetings and other interested bodies.
• There was a clear understanding that TIP would have to be embedded in the OECD.STAT environment. This means 2005 at the earliest from a data storage point of view.
• The first Web-based pilot version has been realised and is in place at the time of writing (September 2005).
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 4
Progress made• As reported to the 4ht and 5th ITS meeting:• An inventory of available databases at
OECD which could be used for the purposes of the TIP was drawn up by STD
• A first tentative selection of possible indicators was drawn up by OECD
• 3 Sources: an indicator “Taxonomy” (prepared by L. Iapadre, ICE) was integrated by OECD into the Roundtable conclusions and into the work done for the HEGI.
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 5
Achievements during the past 12 months:
• A methodological standard framework (see next slide) was developed
• Work for the OECD HEGI (“Aspects of trade globalisation Chapter”) served also as input into TIP
• Thorough research was carried out compiling all eligible OECD data sources and data availability
• Validation of data, integration into a Report Builder• Creation of an Interactive, Web-based query tool
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 6
How does this look like at present?
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES
OECD OCDE
12 - 14 (a.m.) September 2005 Beginning at 10.00 a.m. on the first day
OECD OCDE1
TIP: Standard methodological framework
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE – INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS
13 (p.m.) – 15 September 2005
Beginning at 2:30 p.m. on the first day
&
Dimensions
Indicator IDC
oncept
Refe
rence
Input
Output
Qua
lity
Data element Comment
Name of Indicator - name of the indicator,- referenced as OECD indicator
Definition - short definition
Formula
Valuation - current / constant price (based year)- exchange rate or PPP’s used
Complexity - technical complexity
Data sources- databases used- flow chart - referenced series
Data availability- periodicity- period brackets- area level: country / zone
Visualisation - graphic trend- country benchmarking
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 8
Trade indicator groups
1. Trade balance and coverage ratio
2. Trade openness
3. Trade performance indicators
4. Geographic concentration indicators
5. Specialisation
6. Foreign direct investment indicators
7. Foreign controlled affiliates indicators
8. Technology based indicators
9. Trade policy indicators (WTO)
10. Price Indicators
11. Trade intensity and specialisation indicators
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 9
1. Trade balance and coverage ratio
• Trade balance value (X-M)
• Normalised trade balance ( [X-M] / [X+M] )
• Coverage ratio (X/M)
2. Trade openness
• Trade-to-GDP-ratio ( [X+M] / GDP )
• Export propensity ( X / GDP )
• Import penetration ration ( M / [GDP-X+M] )
• Trade per capita ([X+M] / POP )
• …
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 11
3. Trade performance indicators
• Market shares ( xc / Xtotal )
• Export performance (Δxc –Σα* ΔMtotal )
• …
4. Geographic concentration indicators
• Herfindahl index of geographical concentration
Geographical distribution of export market shares
of goods
• Geographical distribution of import penetration of
goods
• Services trading partners
• ….
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 12
Development of a TIP web tool
SNA/ANASNA/ANA
DatabaseDatabase
ITCSITCS
DatabaseDatabase
ALFSALFS
DatabaseDatabase
TISTIS
DatabaseDatabase
……
DatabaseDatabase
Data extraction (SQL queries), data combination and calculationData extraction (SQL queries), data combination and calculationof the indicators, using of the indicators, using XL Report BuilderXL Report Builder
Creation of dot.stat
format using a macro
OECD.statOECD.stat flashmediaflashmediagraphsgraphs(Planned)
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 13
Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser (planned)
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 14
Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser (planned)
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 15
Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser (planned)
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 16
Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser (planned)
Save in xls-FormatSave in xls-Format
And/or save queryAnd/or save query
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 17
Interactive graphic presentation (planned)
• The trade indicators will be probably made available as macromedia flash objects (*.swf) [embedded in *.html]
• This will allow interactivity in the graphics• The graphs will be produced using
“XCelsius” graphic software
…examples…
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 18
Examples of interactive graphs
• Trade balance vs. normalised TBTrade balance vs. normalised TB
• Trade per capita, trade per capita to propensityTrade per capita, trade per capita to propensity
• Export performanceExport performance
• Export/import propensityExport/import propensity
• Trade balance to GDPTrade balance to GDP
• Market sharesMarket shares
• Geographical origin of import penetrationGeographical origin of import penetration
1
2 3
4 5
6
7
8
9
OECD OCDESTATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE &STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 19
Directions for further research
• Trade “plus” indicators, that is trade plus production (e.g. trade orientation measures), trade plus employment (e.g. correlation of trade and employment indicators, trade plus FDI/trade by foreign-affiliated firms (e.g. globalisation strategies).
• More Trade in Services data is needed containing cross tabulations by products and partner countries.
• Better integration of databases and Analytical Nomenclatures, e.g. by technology and factor intensity.
• Links of customs sources with enterprise structural statistics, as discussed at the 6th ITS meeting to allow building up micro data on enterprise-characteristics, performance and related trade.
• Trade intensity and specialisation indicators.