The Three Themes: The Three Themes: 1. 1. Regional Climate Change and Energy Regional Climate Change and Energy Modeling Modeling 2. 2. Outstanding Scientific Problems Outstanding Scientific Problems 3. 3. Infusion of Data into Models Infusion of Data into Models
20
Embed
The Three Themes: Regional Climate Change and Energy Modeling Outstanding Scientific Problems
The Three Themes: Regional Climate Change and Energy Modeling Outstanding Scientific Problems Infusion of Data into Models. Zhang Marat K. Lin. Vogelmann Miller Jensen Wagener. Colle. Chang. Liu Daum Guo. NY Blue Center. Riemer. McGraw Lewis Chang. Wang. Reisman Bhatt. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
The Three Themes:The Three Themes:
1.1. Regional Climate Change and Energy Regional Climate Change and Energy ModelingModeling
*According to the IPCC AR4 WGII “technologies & strategies (for mitigation & adaptation) are known and developed”, but the “assessed literature does not indicate how effective various options are to fully reduce risks, particularly at higher levels of warming and related impacts, and for vulnerable groups.”
Back to the Basics: Climate Change 101
Adaptation Systems Characteristics, Capacity to adapt
Mitigation* Energy technologies, resources, Strategies
Refining &Conversion Transport Generation Transmission
& DistributionUtilization
DevicesEnd-use
Renewables
Crude Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Refined Products
OtherSources
Nuclear
Electrolysis
Hydrogen Fuel-CellFuel-Cell Vehicles
Electricity
Air-conditioning
Space HeatingWater HeatingOffice EquipmentMisc. Electric BuildingMisc. Electric Industrial
Process Heat
Petro/Biochemicals
Other Transportation
Passenger Travel
Refined Products
DG
ResourceExtraction
Refining &Conversion Transport Generation Transmission
& DistributionUtilization
DevicesEnd-use
Renewables
Crude Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Refined Products
OtherSources
Nuclear
Electrolysis
Hydrogen Fuel-CellFuel-Cell Vehicles
Electricity
Air-conditioning
Space HeatingWater HeatingOffice EquipmentMisc. Electric BuildingMisc. Electric Industrial
Process Heat
Petro/Biochemicals
Other Transportation
Passenger Travel
Refined Products
DG
MARKAL Reference Energy System
Integrated energy systems analysis model – bottom-up technology rich• Analyzes environmental, technological and policy restrictions• Facilitates devising optimal strategies for technology deployment based on life-cycle costs • Signifies a flexible, transparent & well documented methodology• Epitomizes scalability: Global, National, Regional, State & Urban variants On-going energy-climate related MARKAL applications include:• President’s State of the Union address 2006 & Pre-Kyoto decision in 1997• U.S. DOE & U.S. EPA for GHG mitigation & impacts of DOE energy technology R&D on
Future Work: IVA Modeling• Develop an integrated feedback rich dynamic model to study
long-term climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation that can interact seamlessly with selected climate models and MARKAL
• Start with Energy sector for a region (e.g. North-East or New York State) – recent experience: CCSP SAP 4.5 “Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in U.S.”
• Expand to industries, settlements, society, ecology, water and land-use and other regions
Benefits:• Identify specific priorities for scientific research on the
responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems for decision makers
• Holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate
PopulationExogenous growth rates
Water & Ecology Availability, supply, distribution, consumption and treatment
Social ImpactsPublic health
Land-use & SettlementsShifts in use patterns, significant regional issues