The theory of sustainable degrowth

Sustainable Degrowth

Giorgos KallisICREA Professor,

ICTA, Universidad Autonoma de Barcelonawww.eco2bcn.es

Uppsala, 23 September 2010

I will try to convince you, that:

1. Degrowth is a new, exciting and inevitable policy proposal.

2. Degrowth poses new questions and opens new avenues for research.

Structure of this presentation

1. Growth is unsustainable.

2. The sustainable degrowth proposal.

3. Criticism and defence.

4. New questions.



i. Ecologically.ii. Socially.iii. Economically.



4. New questions.

Infinite growth is impossible in a finite planet.

The economy is an entropic process.

Finite stocks are being depleted.

“Thermal pollution”.

Degrowth is inevitable, the objective should be to arrest its pace by turning from “funds” to “flows”.

Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen (1906-1994)

Limits to Growth

The optimist response:

Denial

No limits anytime soon.

No climate change.

“We’ve been through this again”

Technology and efficiency.

Sustainable Development via Green Growth.

Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI)

The impossible arithmetics of climate change

To achieve the 450ppm stabilization target by 2050, we need 21 to 130-fold improvement in carbon intensity (gCO2/$)

Absolute decoupling is not happening.

Rebound effects

Responses that tend to offset the conservation benefits of a more efficient technology and that they are causally related to the new technology.

Jevon’s Paradox

A “weightless economy”?

A “weightless” economy still weighs (Odum).

Labour intensive dematerialized services do not lead to growth (Jackson).

Dual economy and over-accumulation (Gorz)

Growth cannot be sustained even in its own terms.

Over-accumulation

Ecological limits to new investment

Rising costs of growth

So, what´s the problem if we can’t grow?

Real GDP per capita and subjective Life Satisfaction in the UK

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

GDP

Life Satisfaction

Does growth reduce poverty?

Globally less poor.

But the very poor are getting poorer.

Rising inequalities => more relative poverty.

Beyond GDP is not enough.

Complementary indicators are not enough.

There are good, structural reasons why GDP is measured.

GDP is not the cause, but the effect of a growth economy.

From Growth to Degrowth

Growth is unsustainable ≠ Degrowth is sustainable.

Degrowth can be catastrophic => how can we turn it into an opportunity? => how can we make it stable?




i. Definitionii. Measurementiii. Policies


4. New questions.

What is “sustainable degrowth”?

“An equitable downscaling of production and consumption that increases human well-being and enhances ecological conditions”

Schneider, Kallis and Martinez-Alier, Vol 18 (6), 2010-

Key notions

Downscaling and relocalization, not just efficiency improvements.

“Selective” (geographically and sectorally) degrowth.

Measurement

Not negative GDP.

Function of well-being, (sectoral) consumption and impact, and distribution.

Policies

Reduced working hours. Complementary currencies. Impact Caps. Taxing environmental bads. Investment in social services and relational goods. Ecological investments. Leaving resources under the ground (extended

sanctuaries) Basic income and salary caps (redistributive taxes) Stonger regulation of commercial media. Facilitate cooperative/communal forms of property and

ownership.

www.degrowth.eu





4. New questions.

Imprecise

CRITICISM

What is to degrow (GDP, tons of materials, impact)?

RESPONSE

Do we need single indicators?

“Growth” was also imprecise.

Clear direction, (alternative) metrics can be worked out.

Uncertain results

CRITICISM

What if less output with more input?

What if ecological investments decline because of degrowth?

What about “dirty” degrowth?

RESPONSE

Yes, let´s study conditions under which degrowth becomes “sustainable”.

What about the “South” and the “Poor”?

CRITICISM

“Go tell India and China”.

Poverty alleviation requires growth.

Condescending and patronizing.

RESPONSE

The West should offer an example of commitment.

Growth to satisfy basic material needs.

Reduce inequality to tackle poverty.

Yes, alternative, post-development formulations should emerge from the “South”.

Totalitarian

CRITICISM

You can only do this with a dictatorship.

You can´t tell people what to consume.

Technocratic elites will set limits and assume more power.

RESPONSE

Democratically-elected governments have imposed in the past radical changes.

Do not have to intervene directly on consumption.

Degrowth has to be deeply democratic, or nothing at all. “Bottom-up”.

Too voluntaristic

CRITICISM

Humans are selfish and status-seeking; capitalism is our nature.

People like “jeans and fast foods”.

RESPONSE

Biology shows multiple potentialities; “conditioned by genes, cultures still decide”.

There have been alternative societies that were not unhappy.

People like also what they are offered.

Public action is about controlling self-destructive or group-destructive individual actions.

Politically unrealistic

CRITICISM

People will never vote for this.

Elites will not let it happen.

RESPONSE

Small ideas can (and have) turn(ed) hegemonic.

Big and unexpected changes happen in times of crisis.

Dangerously risky

CRITICISM

Polarises politics – the other extreme might as well benefit from the crisis.

Risks unforeseen cascade effects – “we have something, even if imperfect, why risk loosing it all”?

RESPONSE

True, but democracy should be capable of handling antagonisms.

True, but it is unlikely that what we have can be sustained indefinitely – “sustainable degrowth or barbarism?”

Change can also be gradual – address current problems but differently.





4. New questions.

Research

“Metabolic scenarios” of labour, energy, labour (population), product.

Policy-impact models.

Alternatives anthropology “modern” nations, regions, communities

Social movement theory and “big” social change.

New (macro)economics

Thank you!

[email protected]

www.eco2bcn.es

The theory of sustainable degrowth

Economy & Finance