The Swedish Energy Foresight
The Swedish Energy Foresight
Energy supply and use in Sweden 2001, TWh
Use of electricity in Sweden 1970–2001
Electricity production in Sweden 1970–2001
Energy supplies to district heating 1970–2001
Swedish imports of crude oil and petroleum products, 1972–2001 by country of origin (million tonnes, net)
Not just another energy study • Energy is a resource for sustainable development – not a
problem
• Focus on the reduction of the negative effects of energy use – not on the use of energy
• International developments are important
• Energy does not shape society – energy systems are shaped by society
• Transport, industry and buildings – integrated parts in the energy system
Sustainable development – not just environment
Source: UN Global Compact
A scenario approach • Scenarios are tools for building different conceivable future
energy systems – not forecasts of the future.
• Scenarios should provide provoking, credible and relevant
visions, but not necessarily the most likely or desirable
ones.
• Scenarios should take into consideration the deep currents
driving the development of energy systems – not merely
individual events.
Organization • System foresight panel
• User foresight panel
• Structure foresight panel
• Long-term foresight panel
• Expert teams on different energy sources
Deliverables • A summary report
• Panel reports
• Factual reports
• A process
Energy demand • Major energy savings in buildings – but more buildings to
heat or cool
• More efficient office and household appliances – but more
appliances in need of electricity
• Spread of integrated transport solutions and better
logistics – but an increased demand of transport
• Improved efficiency in industrial processes – but an
annual increase in production
Two scenarios • Climate in focus
• Climate - one factor among others
Time
Energy
Solar energyHydrogen
Natural gasClean coal
New nuclear
Oil & coalNuclear
Natural gas, clean coal and new nuclear - a bridge to a solar and hydrogen society
Climate in focus – characteristics • Internationally harmonized measures to reduce
emissions
• More efficient economic measures
• R&D and new infrastructures
• Emphasis on energy efficiency
• Higher energy prices
Energy supply in Sweden 2050for the scenario Climate in focus?• Hydro as today
• Solar-based electricity other than hydro (e.g. bio, wind, solar cells)
and hydrogen fuel cells have a considerable and growing market
share
• Existing nuclear reactors have been partly replaced after 60 years
of operation. A new generation of nuclear technology offers
improved safety and a bridge to a solar and hydrogen society.
• A majority of vehicles have fuel cells with hydrogen produced from
natural gas with carbon sequestration and from renewable energy.
• Heating with bio, heat pumps and electricity (low energy buildings)
Climate a factor among others
– characteristics • Limited harmonisation
• Focus on the local environment rather than on the global
• Emphasis on local production of heat and electricity
• Voluntary market-oriented actions from industry
Energy supply in Sweden 2050 for Climate - one factor among others?• Hydro as today
• Solar-based electricity other than hydro (e.g. bio, wind, solar cells) has a limited but growing market share
• Existing nuclear reactors phased out after 40 years of operation and replaced by electricity from natural gas.
• A majority of vehicles use fossil fuels, liquid and natural gas fuels from natural gas where available. Only zero emission cars are allowed in central parts of urban areas.
• Heating using bio, natural gas, heat pumps and electricity (low energy buildings).
Priority questions in the two scenarios• The level and composition of energy demand?
• Replacement of the existing nuclear reactors?
• Replacement/reduction of oil-derived fuels for transport?
Industry in 2020
Industry profile
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Knowledge content (”price per kilo”)
Export share %
Sweden:
Process development, Swedish pulp mill
Energy use in Industry
• Solar collectors
• Insulation and windows
• Efficient heating and ventilation
systems
• Individual metering of heat and water
Result is 40% reduction of heating requirements.
• Solar collectors
• Insulation and windows
• Efficient ventilation. Heat exchanger
85% efficiency.
• Heating from electric appliances
Result is 50% reduction of energy use without additional building costs.
Energy in buildings 2020
Energy in buildings 2020 Energy use one-family houses
Energy use in the building sector
Transportation in 2020 - hybrid vehicles in urban areas
Transportation in 2020 - availability of fuel cell vehicles
Efficiency
from well to
tank (%)
Vehicle
efficiency
(%)
Overall efficiency (%)
0 10 20 30
Gasoline
vehicles88 16
HVs (gasoline) 88 30
FCVs 58 ~50
future FCHV ~70 ~60
Efficiency of Well to Wheel
Source: Toyota trial calculations
Energy use in the Transport sector
Total use of energy in SwedenDecreased use of energy in the Residental sector will compensate for increased use in Industry and Transport
Nuclear reactors 40-60 yearsOskarshamn 1
Oskarshamn 2
Oskarshamn 3
Ringhals 1
Ringhals 2
Ringhals 3
Ringhals 4
Forsmark 1
Forsmark 2
Forsmark 3
Barsebäck 2
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Production cost new electricity 2002
Blueparts of the bars show costs after future add-ons (taxes and emission rights) and deductions ("green” certificates and wind power bonuses).
Natural gas to Europe
Separation and storage of CO2 from electricity generation(coal)
Development of total estimated cost (separation, transport and storage)
1990 2000
100
50
with further developedtechnology
EUR/ton CO2
Institutional, industrial and technical structures in 2020 Climate in focus – requires joint European actions
Climate – one factor among others – other issues surface
European co-ordination of the energy field Diverging European
development in the energy field
Level European playing field – yields an oligopoly situation – few large actors with similar business
Different playing fields – different business opportunities – multitude of actors of different size
Sweden 2020?Climate - one factor among others
• Half nuclear phased out
• Large scale introduction of natural gas
• Weak incentives for energy efficiency
• Diverging European energy market
Climate in focus
• No change in nuclear
• Limited use of natural gas
• Strong incentives for energy efficiency
• Co-ordinated European energy market
Thank you for your
attention!