The Student Progression Study 2002 Update: Floridas 1993-94 Public High School Graduates Seven Years Later.

The StudentThe StudentProgression Study Progression Study 2002 Update:2002 Update:

Florida’s 1993-94 Florida’s 1993-94 Public Public High School High School Graduates Graduates Seven Years Seven Years LaterLater

Legislative ChargeLegislative Charge

• The 2001 Legislature directed the Council for Education Policy, Research and Improvement to: – continue its longitudinal cohort study of the

progression of public high school graduates as they enroll in, advance through, and graduate from the state’s postsecondary education delivery system and enter the workforce. A progress report shall be submitted to the Governor, Legislature and the State Board of Education by May 31, 2002.

Study LimitationsStudy Limitations

• Reliance on Social Security Numbers for tracking• Public high school graduates only; no private high

schools• Definition of SUS admissibility• Cohort tracking excludes FTIC students who delay

entry• Independent postsecondary sector; limited

information• Out-of-state students• Career education outcomes limited to programs

at community colleges• Family income data student-estimated

Delayed Entry of First-Delayed Entry of First-Time-in-College StudentsTime-in-College Students

82,787

28.8%

15.0%

3.1%10.0%

43.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Perc

en

tag

e

Cohort CCS SUS ICUF Out of State* Not FoundSector

Percentage of 1993-94 Public High School Graduates by Sector of Initial Enrollment

Sector of InitialSector of InitialEnrollmentEnrollment

Distribution of High Distribution of High SchoolSchool

Grad Cohort Found Grad Cohort Found Matriculating in FloridaMatriculating in Florida

CCS61.5%

SUS31.9%

ICUF6.6%

Fall 1994Fall 1994

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Per

cen

tag

e o

f S

tud

ents

Sector

Profile of Fall 1994 Cohorts by SUS Required Courses Met

Courses Met 46.8% 89.3% 75.9%

Courses Unmet 53.2% 10.7% 24.1%

CCS SUS ICUF

Course Requirements Course Requirements Met Met

22.2%

6.1%

15.9%

2.6%

16.4%

0.7%

54.5%

9.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Per

cen

tag

e

1 Area 2 Areas 3 Areas Any AreaNumber of Subject Areas

Percentage of Fall 1994 CCS and SUS Matriculants Determined to Need Remediation, by Number of Subject Areas

CCS SUS

Remediation NeedsRemediation Needs

more detail more detail on this topicon this topic

SUS

Full-time95.2%

Part-time4.8%

N = 12,383

CCS

Full-time66.1%

Part-time33.9%

N = 23,862

Attendance StatusAttendance Statusof Fall 1994 CCS and SUS of Fall 1994 CCS and SUS

MatriculantsMatriculants

Working While EnrolledWorking While Enrolled

Enrollment and Enrollment and Progression Patterns, CCS Progression Patterns, CCS

CohortCohort

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Fall 1995 Fall 1996 Fall 1997 Fall 1998 Fall 1999 Fall 2000

SUS CCS ICUF Not Found Earned Bacc. Degree

Enrollment and Enrollment and Progression Patterns, SUS Progression Patterns, SUS

CohortCohort

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fall 1995 Fall 1996 Fall 1997 Fall 1998 Fall 1999 Fall 2000

SUS CCS ICUF Not Found Earned Bacc. Degree

Degrees AwardedDegrees Awarded1994 - 20011994 - 2001

Associate in Arts (CCS)33.6%

Bachelor's Degree44.9%

Associate in Arts (SUS)5.7%

Master's Degree3.1%

Specialist Degree0.1%

Professional Degrees0.7%

Vocational Certificate5.6%

Associate in Science Certificate

1.9%

Apprenticeship0.0%

Associate in Applied Science0.1%

Associate in Science4.3%

Note: Degrees are duplicated; a student may earn multiple degree/certificates over the Note: Degrees are duplicated; a student may earn multiple degree/certificates over the time period.time period.

Paths to 1Paths to 1stst Bachelor’s Bachelor’s Degree in SUSDegree in SUS

Observed in 1993-94 Florida Public High School Observed in 1993-94 Florida Public High School GraduatesGraduates

CCS CCS EntryEntry

SUS EntrySUS Entry

ICUF EntryICUF Entry

Earn AA/ASEarn AA/AS

SUSSUSBachelor’s Bachelor’s

DegreeDegree(12,877)(12,877)

Earn other Earn other credentialcredential

No No credentialcredential

COMMUNITCOMMUNITYY

COLLEGECOLLEGE

STATESTATEUNIVERSITUNIVERSIT

YY

Other Other Point of Point of

EntryEntry

SUS EntrySUS Entry







COMMUNITCOMMUNITYY

COLLEGECOLLEGE


YY


EntryEntry

CCS CCS EntryEntry



CCS CCS EntryEntry

SUS EntrySUS Entry







COMMUNITCOMMUNITYY

COLLEGECOLLEGE


YY


EntryEntry



CCS CCS EntryEntry

SUS EntrySUS Entry







COMMUNITCOMMUNITYY

COLLEGECOLLEGE


YY


EntryEntry



Taken by 1993-94 Florida Public High School Taken by 1993-94 Florida Public High School GraduatesGraduates

SUS Native56.8%

CC to SUS (AA/ AS Degree)26.4%

ICUF to SUS1.9%

ICUF to CC to SUS (CC AA Degree)

0.5%

CC to SUS (No AA/ ASDegree)

3.7%

Other - Transfer with CC Credential

3.3%

Other - Transfer without CC Credential

4.3%

SUS to CC (AA/ AS Degree)3.1%


Highest Degree Held,Highest Degree Held,1993-94 High School 1993-94 High School

GraduatesGraduates

No Degree Earned74.4%

First Professional Degree0.2%

Advanced Degree0.0%

Master's Degree1.1%


AA/ AS Degree7.9%

Certificates, Apprenticeship

1.9%

by Spring 2001by Spring 2001

Highest Degree Held,Highest Degree Held,SUS StartersSUS Starters


Master's Degree4.8%

Advanced Degree0.1%


No Degree Earned28.8%Certificates,

Apprenticeship0.4%

AA/ AS Degree6.7%


Highest Degree Held, Highest Degree Held, CCS StartersCCS Starters

No Degree Earned62.0%

Certificates, Apprenticeship

3.0%

AA/ AS Degree18.6%

Bachelor's Degree15.6%Master's Degree

0.7%

Advanced Degree0.0%



Cumulative Student Loan Cumulative Student Loan Debt of SUS StartersDebt of SUS Starters

by Highest Degree by Highest Degree HeldHeld

Debt Accumulated by SUS Starters,by Highest Degree Held and Pell Grant Status

$6,925

$10,063

$14,908

$20,738

$27,389

$2,939

$6,562

$21,424

$14,557

$13,302

$4,625 $3,938

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

No Degree(N=2,176)

Apprent/Certif(N=20)

AA/AS(N=475)

Bachelors(N=3,592)

Masters(N=184)

1st Professional(N=32)

Highest Degree Held

Media

n S

tudent

Loan D

ebt

No Pell

Pell

$9,995

$13,166

$21,398

$8,187

$10,782

$8,852

$4,947

$1,698$1,148

$4,965

$1,495$1,312

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

No Degree(N=3,734)

Apprent/Certif(N=145)

AA/AS(N=1,763)

Bachelors(N=1,492)

Masters(N=47)

1st Professional(N=4)

Highest Degree Held

Media

n S

tudent

Loan D

ebt

No Pell

Pell

Cumulative Student Loan Cumulative Student Loan Debt of CCS StartersDebt of CCS Starters

by Highest Degree by Highest Degree HeldHeld

Graduation RateGraduation RateBy Term By Term

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Spring 1996

Spring 1997

Spring 1998

Spring 1999

Spring 2000

Spring 2001

Term

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

CCS SUS Cohort

21.3%

63.9%

Seven-Year Baccalaureate Seven-Year Baccalaureate Graduation RatesGraduation Rates

• Asian and white students had higher graduation rates (49% and 43.9%) compared to blacks and Hispanics (30.2% and 28.2%)

• Females graduated at a rate of 42.8%; Males, 35.9%

• Students who met the SUS course requirements had significantly higher graduation rates than those who did not (49.4% compared to 18.5%)

• Graduation rates steadily increase with family income, as well as high school GPA.

Graduation Rates byGraduation Rates byFamily IncomeFamily Income

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Less than$10,000

$10,000 -$19,999

$20,000 -$29,999

$30,000 -$39,999

$40,000 -$49,999

$50,000 -$59,999

$60,000 -$69,999

$70,000 andabove

Estimated Family Income

7-Year6-Year5-Year

37.8% 38.1%43.4%

45.6% 50.4% 52.1%

56.0%61.5%


Graduation Rates byGraduation Rates byHigh School GPA High School GPA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Less than 2.0 2.00 to 2.49 2.50 to 2.99 3.00 to 3.49 3.50 to 3.99 4.0 and above

High School Grade Point Average

7-Year6-Year5-Year

6.8%

17.6%

32.3%

48.0%

64.1%

80.7%


Graduation RatesGraduation Ratesby Number of Terms Workingby Number of Terms Working

and Postsecondary Sectorand Postsecondary Sector

Multivariate AnalysesMultivariate Analyses• The use of multivariate statistical models allows

one to determine the impact of a given variable on the likelihood of degree completion or the time to degree in the presence of other predictor variables

• Two statistical techniques are employed in this analysis:– Probit: This statistical technique is appropriate for

modeling the probability of binary outcomes (degree completion)

– OLS Regression: This technique is more appropriate for the time-to-degree model given the continuous nature of the dependent variable (number of terms to degree completion)

Likelihood of Likelihood of Baccalaureate Degree Baccalaureate Degree

CompletionCompletion

• High school academic preparation and achievement matter.– CCS Starters with higher GPAs close the

gap on SUS starters.• Among the postsecondary enrollment

factors, starting at a state university, full-time enrollment, and first-term grade point average appeared to have the strongest effect.

Over the Seven Year Tracking Over the Seven Year Tracking PeriodPeriod

Probability of Degree AttainmentProbability of Degree Attainmentfor Selected Student Profiles,for Selected Student Profiles,

SUS CohortSUS Cohort

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Number of Part-Time Terms Enrolled

Pro

bab

ility

of

Bac

cala

ure

ate

Deg

ree

Att

ain

men

t

Above Average Average Below Average

Effect of the number Effect of the number of part-time termsof part-time terms

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Number of Part-Time Terms Enrolled

Pro

bab

ility

of

Bac

cala

ure

ate

Deg

ree

Co

mp

leti

on

Above Average Average Below Average

Effect of the number Effect of the number of part-time termsof part-time terms


CCS CohortCCS Cohort


CCS CohortCCS Cohort

0.43

0.71

0.20

0.45

0.05

0.18

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f B

accala

ure

ate

Deg

ree C

om

ple

tion

Above Average Average Below AverageStudent Academic Profile

Did Not Receive A.A. Degree Received A.A. Degree

Effect of earning an Effect of earning an A.A. degreeA.A. degree

Graduation Rates byGraduation Rates byReceipt of A.A. Degree, Receipt of A.A. Degree,

SUS Cohort SUS Cohort

0.79

0.62

0.55

0.36

0.25

0.12

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f B

accala

ure

ate

Deg

ree C

om

ple

tion

Above Average Average Below AverageStudent Academic Profile

Did Not Receive A.A. Degree Received A.A. Degree

Effect of earning an Effect of earning an A.A. degreeA.A. degree

Time to Baccalaureate Time to Baccalaureate Degree CompletionDegree Completion

• High school GPA had the strongest effect on time to degree.

• The number of “stopouts” and long degree programs also had a large impact.

• Time to degree decreased by just over half of one semester for SUS starters.

• The model explained 61% of the variance in time to degree completion. Model fit improved with the extension of the tracking period.

Over the Seven Year Tracking Over the Seven Year Tracking PeriodPeriod

What Matters?What Matters?

• Students should arrive academically prepared. This is true for all students. High school performance had the strongest influence of all pre-college student characteristics.

• Students should maintain continuous enrollment, full-time if possible. This is especially true for community college students.

What Matters?What Matters?

• Community college students should complete the associate’s degree. For community college starters, the probability of bachelor’s degree completion within seven years was over two times greater for those who earned the A.A. at a community college as compared to those who did not.

Student ProgressionStudent ProgressionStudyStudy

Public TestimonyPublic Testimony

Council DiscussionCouncil Discussion

ActionAction

Alternative SlidesAlternative Slides

to provide additional to provide additional detail on selected detail on selected

topicstopics

31.4%

4.7%

38.6%

4.1%

33.3%

4.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Per

cen

tag

e

Reading Math Writing

Subject Area

Percentage of Fall 1994 CCS and SUS Matriculants Determined to Need Remediation, by Subject Area

CCS SUS

Remediation Needs,Remediation Needs,by Subject Areaby Subject Area

return to return to main main

presentatiopresentationn

still more still more detail on this detail on this

topictopic

0.2%2.0%

16.2%

30.7%

16.4%

32.1%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Per

cen

tag

e

SUS Dual Enrollment HoursAttempted

CCS Dual Enrollment HoursAttempted

All Dual Enrollment HoursAttempted

Type of Dual Enrollment

Percentage of Fall 1994 CCS and SUS Matriculants with Dual Enrollment Hours Attempted

CCS SUS

Dual EnrollmentDual Enrollment




topictopic

4.41

6.98

10.04

11.11

9.98

11.08

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Nu

mb

er o

f D

ual

En

rollm

ent

Ho

urs

SUS Dual Enrollment HoursAttempted

CCS Dual Enrollment HoursAttempted

All Dual Enrollment HoursAttempted

Type of Dual Enrollment

Average Amount of Dual Enrollment Hours Attempted by Fall 1994 CCS and SUS Matriculants

CCS SUS

Dual EnrollmentDual Enrollment




topictopic

1.4%

18.1%

0.0%1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.9%

7.6%

3.4%

23.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Per

cen

tag

e

AdvancedPlacement

InternationalBaccalaureate

CLEP Other AccelerationCredit (Non-Dual

Enrollment)Type of Acceleration Credit

Percentage of Fall 1994 CCS and SUS Matriculants with Acceleration Credit (Non-Dual Enrollment)

CCS SUS

Acceleration Test CreditAcceleration Test Credit




topictopic

6.75

8.90

0

20.79

8.36 8.267.14

3.31

8.099.23

0

5

10

15

20

25

Am

ou

nt

of

Cre

dit

AdvancedPlacement

InternationalBaccalaureate

CLEP Other AccelerationCredit (Non-Dual

Enrollment)Type of Acceleration Credit

Average Amount of Acceleration Credit (Non-Dual Enrollment) Awarded for Fall 1994 CCS and SUS Matriculants

CCS SUS

Acceleration Test CreditAcceleration Test Credit



Graduation RatesGraduation Ratesby Family Incomeby Family Income




Graduation RatesGraduation Ratesby High School GPAby High School GPA




The Student Progression Study 2002 Update: Floridas 1993-94 Public High School Graduates Seven Years Later.

Documents

degree slide

sus slide

sus cohort slide

degree completion slide

sus matriculants slide

point of entry slide

topic slide

term slide