The Story of Delivery under Blair Michael Barber Moscow Higher School of Economics December 2009.

The Story of Delivery under BlairMichael Barber

Moscow Higher School of Economics December 2009

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“A mandate for reform…an

instruction to deliver”

Tony Blair, on the meaning of the General Election he

had just won by a landslide, 8 June 2001.

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CAUSES OF FAILURE IN BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS

•Complacency

•Lack of guiding coalition

•Underestimating vision

•Under-communicating

•Not removing obstacles

•No short-term wins

•Declaring victory too soon

•Not changing the culture

SOURCE: John Kotter

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CAUSES OF FAILURE IN GOVERNMENT

•Cynicism – track record of failure

•Multiple small projects

•Watered-down compromise

•Lack of persistence

•Institutional inertia

•Poor design

•Lack of clarity about goals

•Incompetence

SOURCE: Instruction to Deliver

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… A MAP OF DELIVERY …

Boldness of reform

Quality of execution

CONTROVERSY WITHOUT IMPACT

STATUS QUO

TRANS-FORMATION

IMPROVED OUTCOMES

Successful delivery

TRANS-FORMATION

IMPROVED OUTCOMES

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… AND DEVELOPING AMONG STAFF AN UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT DELIVERY REQUIRES

• Structure, culture, results• Avoid celebrating success too soon

Ambition

Irreversibility

Focus

Clarity

Urgency

• Believe in step change• Get it done as well as possible

• Clear sustained priorities• Avoiding distractions

• “Confront the brutal facts”• Know what’s happening now• Understand stakeholders

• People are impatient• “If everything seems under control, you’re

not going fast enough”

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TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS

1. Determine priorities

2. Set targets/ define success

3. Understand the challenge

4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories

5. Understand the delivery chain

6. Build capacity at every level including the centre

7. Create routines

8. Solve problems as they arise

9. Establish the right relationships

10. Persist…

An Asian government relied on collaborative workshops and surveys to develop shared aspirations

* Numbers are not actualsSOURCE: McKinsey delivery team

A series of surveys with Cabinet Ministers were used to develop an initial list of six priority areas…

…then the six areas were tested again through a second set of surveys with Cabinet Ministers

National aspirations

Crime

Corruption

Education

Poverty

Transport

Basic InfrastructureCrime Educ-

ationCorr-uption

Pov-erty

Trans-port

Basic infra-structure

No response

YesNo

Do you agree with the following aspirations?*

Because key officials were involved throughout the process, the system leader knew aspirations were widely shared

The aspirations were finalized as part of a two-day delivery workshop

AGENDA – DAY 1

WelcomeSession 1Working group**Break**Share outLunchSession 2

9:009:1510:0011:0011:1512:001:00

Refine existing or define new aspirations

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7. Create routines



10. Persist…

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KEY QUESTIONS TO ANSWER IN A DELIVERY PLAN

• What is the service delivery chain?

• Who is accountable at the top . . . and all along the delivery chain?

• What are the key actions (milestones)?

• What is the timetable?

• Who are the key stakeholders? How will they be brought on board?

• What are the major risks? How will they be managed?

• What impact will the actions have on the key outcomes (trajectories)?

• What data do you need? Will it be early enough to act if progress is off track?

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CONSTRUCTING A TRAJECTORY

Can you break the data down

by locality?

Can you break the data down

by policy?Can you break the data down by category?

What is the performance

indicator?

What is the target?

How will you collect the

data?What is the historic data

run?

How will you estimate the

future?

Constructing a trajectory

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POLICY DELIVERY – TRAJECTORIES

97 98 99 00 01 0296 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Mid-term delivery goal

Long-term strategic goal

Historical performance

Delivery indicator

Low trajectory (policy

has a lagged impact)

Mid-trajectory

High trajectory (policy has an immediate impact)

Policy step A

Policy step B

Policy step C

Project plan streams

Project plan streams

progress indicators

Starting Point

A key tool in evaluating the activity’s implementation is a delivery chain analysis

Delivery chain

Delivery system

Policy

DirectionDepartment of Education

Department

National Strategy

National Agencies

School district

Testing authority

School inspection unit

Teacher training agency

180

Local Agencies Frontline

Independent Provi-ders Other Schools Networks

Principal training agency

School18,500

Newly qualified teachersteaching assistants

Built Strategy into Training

Provided Training

Advice and Support

Provided National Testing Regime

Inspection and Reporting

Parents

Pupils

Pressure for improve-ments

Users and Citizens

Example: delivery system analysis for national literacy strategy in the UK

Head TeachersSubject Leaders

SOURCE: USEDI Delivery Handbook

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7. Create routines



10. Persist…

A delivery unit’s purpose, organization, and activities all must be directed at helping the system achieve its aspirations

Purpose

▪ Implement the aspirations defined by the system leader

▪ Promote urgent and visible action

▪ Amplify system leader’s authority over actors in the system

▪ Ensure forward momentum toward aspiration, despite of bureaucratic inertia

▪ Small, highly capable, responsive group of people

▪ Reports directly to the system leader and has leader’s visible backing

▪ Strong performance-driven, results-oriented culture

▪ Monitor progress toward aspirations– Collect and analyze

relevant data– Coordinate individuals to

make sure results are on track

▪ Report regularly to system leader

▪ Take corrective action as necessary to achieve aspirations

Organization Key activities

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7. Create routines



10. Persist…

Consider what is necessary to build support for aspirations at each level of the system

Guiding coalition members model change and communicate to the broader workforce, who have day-to-day responsibility for driving progress toward aspirations

Guiding coalition members interact directly with mid-tier leaders, helping develop their commitment and capabilities to achieve aspirations

Members of the guiding coalition act as the first set of core supporters and push others in the system to support the aspirations

Finally, the guiding coalition members help ensure that end users and the public see the impact of the change

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Guiding Coalition

33

44

Working from the center, the guiding coalition gradually ▪ Builds a widening network of relationships to deliver the system’s

aspiration▪ Develops leadership capacity throughout the system

SOURCE: John Kotter; Michael Fullan, The Six Secrets of Change

I know what I want…but we’re so far from achieving it

We’re not bold enough…all too incremental

This is tough and the civil service needs to change

At last some results…what should the next phase be like?

Real progress… but why did all the drive have to come from my office?

The Prime Minister’s agenda is right…but the pressure from him is relentless

I feel huge pressure from the public and Opposition to communicate.How do I get this department to really deliver?

It’s a real battle…and the public and media are never satisfied

In the end, the PMDU and targets ensured we stayed focused

Tough but worth it

The minister drives us hard…and the staff don’t know what to do

Is this just about the election result…or transforming Britain?

We seem to be antagonizing people at the frontline

We need to develop our collective capabilities

We’re proud of our results…but the next phase will be harder

Prime Minister

Ministers

Top civil servants

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Consider both immediate and long-term communication needs, as stakeholders’ concerns likely will evolve

In the UK PMDU, stakeholders’ perspectives evolved over the course of the delivery effort

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The problem of Autumn: Grinding out improved rail reliability

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RAIL PUNCTUALITY VARIES SEASONALLY AND REACHED AN ALL-TIME LOW AFTER THE HATFIELD CRASH IN OCTOBER 2000

Source: Department of Transport

National actual PPM (period data)

PP

M

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

Mar 97 Mar 98 Mar 99 Mar 00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 040%

Hatfield crash

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RAIL PUNCTUALITY VARIES SEASONALLY AND REACHED A POST-HATFIELD PEAK THIS YEAR


National Public Performance Measure (PPM) – actual data against Moving Annual Average (MAA)


National moving annual average

PP

M

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%


Post Hatfield peak

Hatfield crash

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RAIL PUNCTUALITY VARIES SEASONALLY AND REACHED A POST-HATFIELD PEAK THIS YEAR


National Public Performance Measure (PPM) – actual data against Moving Annual Average (MAA)


National moving annual average

PP

M

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%


Post Hatfield peak

Hatfield crash

Autumn performance almost at pre-Hatfield levels

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RAIL: THE MESSAGES ARE CLEAR

1. Establish a shared goal

• Demanding and realistic• Align key players around the goal

2. Manage performance

• Don’t just connect the data, use it• Monthly reviews with each train operating company

3. It’s all in the detail

• Whistles and watches• Joint Control Centres

4. Autumn shouldn’t be a surprise

• The weather is a variable• Preparation should be constant

THE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK ENABLES THE LIKELIHOOD OF DELIVERY TO BE PREDICTED

Department …………………….

PSA Target ……………………

Degree of challenge

Quality of planning, implementation and

performance management

Capacity to drive progress

Stage of delivery

Judgement Rating Rationale summary

Likelihood of delivery

Recent performance


Red Highly problematic - requires urgent and decisive action

Amber/Red Problematic - requires substantial attention, some aspects need urgent action

Amber/Green Mixed - aspect(s) require substantial attention, some good

Green Good - requires refinement and systematic implementation

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ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: EXAMPLE

AG


Red

Amber/Red

Amber/Green

Green

N

Highly problematic - requires urgent and decisive action

Problematic - requires substantial attention, some aspects need urgent action

Mixed - aspect(s) require substantial attention, some good

Good - requires refinement and systematic implementation

Not enough evidence

Additional Comments

We need to achieve 95% in June for the overall rating not to move to amber/red

Evidence for assessment Version 0.3

Jul-04Department

AreaLevel PSA level / PSA sub-

target level / 2005 Delivery Goal

Dept A

PSA 4

PSA level

Recent performance

Performance has lifted from 91.1% for the month of January 2004 to 94.3% for the month of April 2004

JudgementOverall rating

Degree of challenge

Quality of planning,

implementation, and performance

management

Capacity to drive

progress

VH

AR

AG

Rationale summary

Stage of delivery 2

The stage is borderline 2/3. Programme and project management and data collection and monitoring are all fully established and there is full confidence that all of the necessary strategies are now in place as a result of agreement on the 5-point plan. Stakeholder communication is good and pressure and support are being successfully combined to drive implementation forwards.

The target is a complex one. This is due primarily to the agreement on a 5-point plan (to Clarify the Target, Improve Incentives, Refocus Support from Agency , provide tools to improve and strengthen Leadership & Performance) which is now being actively and effectively implemented. Recent progress in two other areas further supports this reassessment. The xxxxx paper for launch in May will put the weight of the colleges behind the change in attitudes and new ways of working required in order to deliver the target. The publication of the xxxx review also sets a clear direction. Together they effect a step change in ability to overcome the key blockages impeding target delivery.

There is now a single plan based on the core 5-point plan agreed with PMDU, a single agenda and a very solid infrastructure to the programme which ensures control of all contributing teams and strategies. Effective governance and rigorous measuring and monitoring of deliverables and performance are fully established alongside a comprehensive and well directed programme of intervention in challenged areas. The management of risks and interdependencies is now well underway. Existing plans just need refinement and systematic implementation. Performance management is already proving effective and will be deployed increasingly as the target date approaches.

A very effective leadership team have ensured that the right people, action plans, knowledge and performance management are all in place for continuing progress on the 5-point plan to be assured. Further capacity to drive is anticipated from the recruitment of an implementation manager and being able to firm up the long term contribution and commitment of key resources. Phased incentives and the star ratings plus clear focus on this have provided the necessary levers and put capacity to deliver on a firm footing.

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Overall Judgement

DeptDegree of challenge




Stage of Delivery

Likelihood of Delivery

V High - High - Red - Amber/Red - Amber/Green - Red - Amber/Red - 1 Policy Red - Amber/Red - VH - H - M - L R - AR - AG - G R - AR - AG - G 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 R - AR - AG - G

July 2004 Rank (out of

21)

Assessment Criteria

THE DELIVERY REPORT: LEAGUE TABLE – JULY 2004

Rank (out of

21)

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PROGRESS ON THE PRIME MINISTER’S PRIORITIES CAN BE SUMMARISED IN A LEAGUE TABLE

Overall Judgement

DeptDegree of challenge




Stage of Delivery

Likelihood of Delivery

V High - High - Red - Amber/Red - Amber/Green - Red - Amber/Red - 1 Policy Red - Amber/Red - VH - H - M - L R - AR - AG - G R - AR - AG - G 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 R - AR - AG - G

A PSA 1 L G G 3 G = 1B PSA 2 L G AG 2 G = 1C PSA 3 H AG AG 3 G 3D PSA 4 H G AG 3 AG 4A PSA 5 VH G AG 2 AG 5B PSA 6 H AG AG 3 AG 6C PSA 7 H AG AG 2 AG = 7D PSA 8 H AG AG 3 AG = 7A PSA 9 H AG AG 2 AG = 7B PSA 10 VH AG AG 2 AG = 10C PSA 11 VH AG AG 2 AG = 10D PSA 12 H AR AG 3 AG 12A PSA 13 VH AR AG 2 AR 13B PSA 14 VH AG AR 2 AR = 14C PSA 15 VH AG AR 2 AR = 14D PSA 16 VH AR AR 2 AR = 16A PSA 17 VH AR AR 2 AR = 16B PSA 18 H AG AR 3 R = 18C PSA 19 H AG AR 2 R = 18D PSA 20 VH AG AR 3 R 20A PSA 21 VH R R 2 R 21

July 2004 Rank (out of

21)

Assessment Criteria

Rank (out

of 21)

= 1= 1

3

456

= 7= 7= 7 = 10 = 10

1213

= 14 = 14 = 16 = 16 = 18 = 18

20

21

A SIMPLE INDICATOR OF OVERALL PERFORMANCE CAN BE DESIGNED

5347

December 2003, %

BETWEEN DECEMBER 2003 AND JULY 2004 THERE WAS A 15% SWING FROM RED TO GREEN …

38

62

July 2004, %

… AND BY DECEMBER 2004 A FURTHER 21% SWING FROM RED TO GREEN

17

83

December 2004, %

TRANSFORMATION WILL DEPEND ON COMBINING THREE ELEMENTS

The right mindset

• ‘Guiding coalition’

• Shared vision

• Ambition

• Clear priorities

• Ministerial consistency

• Urgency

• Capacity to learn rapidly

• Collaboration across government

Bold reform

• Choice

• Personalisation

• Responsiveness to the community

• Contestability

• Vibrant supply side

• Serious investment

• 3 year funding for frontline

• Flexible deployment of staff

Effective performance management

• Targets

• Sharp accountability

• Good real-time data

• Best practice transfer

• Transparency

• Management against trajectory

• Capacity to intervene where necessary

• Incentives to reward success

The Story of Delivery under Blair Michael Barber Moscow Higher School of Economics December 2009.

Documents

delivery plan

story of delivery

asia slide

service delivery chain

mckinsey delivery team

shared aspirations

john kotter slide

new aspirations