The state of the irish nation 2014 (slideshare)

STATE OF THE IRISH NATION 2014

15th December 2014 1

CONTENTS

•The economy

•The consumer

•The advertising market

•Changing attitudes

2

THE ECONOMY

•The economy has performed well in 2014, with concrete evidence that Ireland has weathered the worse of the recession.

•All headline KPI’s are improving. Employment continues to grow steadily. The construction, services and manufacturing sector are all performing better.

•However the worsening state of the global economy is a major threat to Ireland’s continuing recovery in 2015

4

The recovery in the Irish economy has gained momentum and is broadening, though the underlying strength of the economy is less than that suggested by the recent exceptionally buoyant Quarterly National Accounts data. However, while the latest year-on-year headline growth rate overstates the scale of the improvement in economic performance, the evidence from a range of other data indicates that the recovery has strengthened and is becoming more balanced. Encouragingly, the domestic economic recovery has become more broad-based, supported by gradually improving employment and incomes. Against this background, consumer spending is growing and, allied to strong growth in investment spending, domestic demand is set to contribute positively to growth in 2014, for the first time since the downturn

Patrick Honohan, Governor, Central Bank of Ireland, Oct 2014

THE TIDE IS COMING IN

3

The Irish economy is forecast to grow by 4.5% in 2014 and 3.4% in 2015

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10

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ireland GDP Growth Forecasts

5

Source: Central Bank of Ireland 2014

Consumer and Business Confidence

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Jan

-04

May

-04

Sep

-04

Jan

-05

May

-05

Sep

-05

Jan

-06

May

-06

Sep

-06

Jan

-07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan

-08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan

-09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan

-10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Consumer Sentiment Index

6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Business Confidence Index

Consumer and business confidence have grown substantially since the middle of 2013. While the fundaments of the Irish economy remain sound, should the global economy slip back into recession in 2015, Ireland will be challenged to maintain growth

Source: KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Survey KBC/Chartered Accountants Ireland Business Confidence

Oct-14Sep-14Aug-14Jul-14Jun-14May-14Apr-14Mar-14Feb-14Jan-14Dec-13Nov-13Oct-13Sep-13Aug-13Jul-13Jun-13May-13Apr-13Mar-13

7

Ireland has the fastest growing economy in Europe in 2014

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Ger

man

y

Bel

giu

m

Esto

nia

Irel

and

Gre

ece

Spai

n

Fran

ce

Ital

y

Cyp

rus

Latv

ia

Lith

uan

ia

Luxe

mb

ou

rg

Mal

ta

Net

her

lan

ds

Au

stri

a

Po

rtu

gal

Slo

ven

ia

Slo

vaki

a

Fin

lan

d

UK

EU

8

8

•

•

•

11

12

13

Source: CSO

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Jan

-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

No

v-12

Jan

-13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-

13

Sep

-13

No

v-13

Jan

-14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

Ireland Rate of Unemployment

14

Source: CSO 2014 / Eurostat

National

15

National

Source: CSO 2014

16

Consumer Confidence is strong

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

17

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Jan

-04

May

-04

Sep

-04

Jan

-05

May

-05

Sep

-05

Jan

-06

May

-06

Sep

-06

Jan

-07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan

-08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan

-09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan

-10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

•

•

•

•

19

20

Press TV Outdoor Radio Cinema

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

•

•

•

22

23

Source: TGI 2014