The State of Ohio’s Ninth Graders Will they be in this picture? Ninth Grade Make-It or Break-It Year Retreat March 31, 2006 Presented by Kathy Shibley,

The State of Ohio’s Ninth GradersWill they be in this picture?

Ninth Grade Make-It or Break-It Year RetreatMarch 31, 2006

Presented by Kathy Shibley, Ph.D.Director, Office of Career-Technical and Adult Education

Ohio Department of Education

Charge: Help Ohio’s education policy leaders rethink the rules, roles and relationships that define high school by focusing on:

– Personalized education– Middle to high school transition– High School to college transition– Aligning Ohio’s P-16 system

Source: Ohio Department of Education, State Board of Education’s Task Force on Quality High Schools for a Lifetime of Opportunities (Estimated using 2003-2004 data)

Too many students leave school before they graduate.

“It’s not just about graduation. It’s about preparation.”

Governor Bob Taft, State of the State,

January 25, 2006

Source: Manhattan Institute, Public High School Graduation and College Readiness Rates: 1991-2002, February 2005, www.manhattan-institute.org/html/ewp_08.htm

27% 31% 34%

45%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Lowest: AK Ohio United States Highest: NJ

Percentage of College-Ready High School Graduates, 2002

Too few students are college-ready when they graduate.

The Task Force’s Goal:

Improve and sustain the academic achievement of all Ohio high school students, ensuring that they acquire the knowledge and skills they will need to succeed in postsecondary education, careers and citizenship.

Education Continuum

Pre-KElementary

GradesMiddle Grades

High School

Higher Education

and Workforce

Pre-KElementary

GradesMiddle Grades

High School

Higher Education

and Workforce

Five Pressure Points

Middle School

Transitions

Grades 9-10Ohio Graduation TestsGrades 11-12

Post- secondary Transitions

Problem:

Not enough students leave middle school prepared for high school

Pressure Point #1:Middle school transitions

Students Unprepared for High School

7th Grade Math58.5%

8th Grade Reading

78.9% 8th Grade Math60.1%

0

75

All Students

Per

cent

Pro

ficie

nt

State Standard

Source: Ohio Department of Education, Local Report Card data, 2004-2005

Percentage of Students Proficient or Above on Middle School Tests, 2004-2005

7th Grade Mathematics Results by District Type, 2004-2005

Source: Ohio Department of Education, State Board discussion on Local Report Card and Condition of Education

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

CommSchools

MajorUrban

UrbanOther

Rural HiPoverty

Rural /SmallTown

Suburb

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

CommSchools

MajorUrban

UrbanOther

Rural HiPoverty

Rural /SmallTow n

Suburb

Source: Ohio Department of Education, State Board discussion on Local Report Card and Condition of Education.

8th Grade Reading Results by District Type, 2004-2005

Middle School Transitions

Goal:

Encourage more rigor, relevance and relationship building

Problem:Not enough students engaged and progressing through system

Pressure Point #2:Grades 9-10

9th Grade “Bubble”

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Grade

Pe

rce

nt

of

Sta

te E

nro

llm

en

t

State Enrollment (June head count) by Grade, 2004-2005

Source: Ohio Department of Education

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

KG 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Grade

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

den

ts

Source: Ohio Department of Education

Number of Students Retained by Grade Level, 2004-2005

Retention in Grades 9-12

2004-2005 School Year

Ohio high school students retained 20,446

Approximate cost per student $9,000

$184 million

Grades 9-10

Goal:

Facilitate Timely Student Success and Progress

Problem:

Not enough students meet OGT standards in a timely fashion

Pressure Point #3:Ohio Graduation Tests

Ohio Graduation Tests

Source: Ohio Department of Education, Local Report Card data, 2004-2005

Ohio Graduation TestsGoal:

Focus on Timely Successful Completion of the OGT

Problem:

Not enough students participate in rigorous curriculum

Pressure Point #4:Grades 11-12

ACT Composite Scores

Source: ACT: Crisis at the Core, 2005

16.3

21.520.1

18.3 18.717.8

23.6 22.721.3 21.2

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

36.0

AfricanAmerican

AsianAmerican

Caucasian HispanicAmerican

NativeAmerican

Average ACT

Composite Score

Non-Core Core

Ohio ACT Composite Scores for 2004 High School Graduates by Core Status and

Race/Ethnicity

Advanced Placement

Source: College Board

2000 - 2005 % GrowthStudents Taking AP Exams

43.80% 45.30%

0.00%

50.00%

100.00%

Ohio Nation

Ohio

Nation

Advanced Placement

Source: College Board

2005 Students Passing AP Exams

0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%

Ohio Nation

High School Graduates Unprepared

Source: The Performance Report for Ohio’s Colleges and Universities, 2005, Ohio Board of Regents, www.regents.state.oh.us/perfrpt/2005HSindex.html

23%33%

41%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Remedial Math orEnglish

Remedial Math Remedial English

Too many college freshmen need remedial coursework

78%75%

75%74%

18%25%

10%10%

Extremely/very well prepared for typical job in my companyExtremely/very well prepared for advancement in my company

Few Employers Feel High School Graduates Are Prepared

Applicants with no high school degree

Recent public high school grads who have no further education/training

Recent grads of two-year college or training program

Recent graduates of four-year colleges

Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Opinion Strategies, Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? Prepared for Achieve, Inc., 2005

High School Graduates Unprepared

Grades 11-12

Goal:

Rigorous Preparation

Problem:

Not enough students graduate from high school prepared for postsecondary education and work

Pressure Point #5:Postsecondary Transitions

% of Adults with High School Diploma or More

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Adults 25+ Adults 25 - 34

OH

US

Ohio Above National Average in High School Graduates

Source: U.S. Census data, 2004

Ohio Below National Average in College Graduates

% of Adults with Bachelor's Degree or More

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Adults 25+ Adults 25 - 34

OH

US

Source: U.S. Census data, 2004

How Does Ohio Stack Up?

Source: National Center for Public Policy & Higher Education, Policy Alert, April 2004. Data are estimates of pipeline progress rather than actual cohort

68%

40%

27%18%

70%

40%

29%19%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Graduate highschool

Start college Persist 2ndyear

Earn degree

Perc

enta

ge o

f 9t

h G

rade

Stu

dent

s

OhioU.S.

Median Earnings for Adults 25+

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Less thanhigh schoolgraduate

HS Grad Some collegeor

associate'sdegree

Bachelor'sdegree

Graduate orprofessional

degree

College Graduates Earn More than High School Graduates

Source: U.S. Census data, 2004

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Less thanhigh school

graduate

HS Grad Somecollege or

associate'sdegree

Bachelor'sdegree

Graduate orprofessional

degree

Poverty Rate For Adults 25+

Source: U.S. Census data, 2004

Postsecondary Transitions

Goal:

Seamless Transition

Class of 2009

Where have all the ninth graders gone?