The Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Internal Migration of Foreigners in Italy and Spain(*) Joaquín Recaño-Valverde Departament de Geografia - Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona Verónica de Miguel Luken Universidad de Granada Roberta Pace Universitat di Bari Migration, Mixing and Ethnic Integration Royal Geographical Society Manchester, 26-28 th August 2009 (*) Geographical mobility of foreign population in Spain: sociodemographic and territorial factors, funded by the Minister of Education and Science, R+D National Scheme 2004-2007. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
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The Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Internal Migration of Foreigners in Italy and Spain(*)
Joaquín Recaño-ValverdeqDepartament de Geografia - Centre d’Estudis DemogràficsUniversitat Autònoma de BarcelonaVerónica de Miguel LukenUniversidad de GranadaRoberta PaceUniversitat di Bari
Migration, Mixing and Ethnic IntegrationRoyal Geographical Society
Manchester, 26-28th August 2009
(*) Geographical mobility of foreign population in Spain: sociodemographic and territorial factors, funded by the Minister of Education and Science, R+D National Scheme 2004-2007.
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Background and objectivesBackground and objectives
Despite the importance of the topic, not much is known about the internal mobility of the foreign population in Europe in comparison with USA and Canadacomparison with USA and Canada.Most existing studies try to answer the following general questions:questions:Do foreigners stay in the entry regions? Are their internal migration patterns similar to those of natives? g pDo these patterns differ by origin and/or nationality? What individual socioeconomic and family factors have an yinfluence on foreigners or foreign-born people mobility?We search for answers to these questions for Spain and Italy
Data
Th i d t i t l i ti (fl ) d i thiThe microdata on internal migration (flows) used in thisstudy come from municipal registers (Estadística deVariaciones Residenciales in Spain period 1988-2008 andp pStatistiche Anagrafiche in Italy period 1995-2006)The number of foreigners used to calculate migration
t f th P d ó C ti (S i ) drates comes from the Padrón Continuo (Spain) andStatistiche Anagrafiche and Census 2001 (Italy).The individual data for the logistic models have beenThe individual data for the logistic models have been taken from the IPUMS-International 5% Household sample of the Spanish and Italian Census Data
Methods
We have used internal migration rates by sex and ageand Gross Migraproduction rates (defined by Rogers and
m=GMR +∑ω
Willekens) similar to Total Fertility Rates.
mGMR n+xx,=0x∑
We have used Courgeau method (1973) to comparemeasures of intensity of mobility in Spain and ItalyWe have applied Logistic regression to the microdataof the 2001 Spanish and Italian Census provided byIPUMS International (Sample 5%)IPUMS-International (Sample 5%).
Methods
We have classified foreigners in five different groups:UE (15) + OECD countries,Eastern European countries, including the former Sovietrepublics,African countries,Latin American countries andAsian countries.
Spain and Italy : new countries of immigration
In the last ten years, Spain d It l h b tand Italy have become two
countries of immigration.Reaching in 2008 5.2 million (11 3 per cent of the
Year Italy % Pop. Spain % Pop.(11.3 per cent of the population of Spain) and 3.4 million (5.7 per cent of the population of Italy)
1996 737,793 1.30 542,314 1.37
p p y)Steep increase of the incoming flows and heterogeneity in terms of nationality
2001 1,464,589 2.57 1,370,657 3.33
What can we expect as a result of the economic crisis?
2007 2,938,922 4.97 4,519,554 10.00
2008 3,432,651 5.76 5,220,577 11.33
Spatial distribution of the foreign population -1st January 20081st January 2008
Not foreign people< 1 per cent1 - 5 per cent
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
1 - 5 per cent5 - 10 per cent10 - 15 per cent> 15 per cent
Source: INE and ISTAT. Own calculations
Percentage of foreigners in internal movements by year Percentage of foreigners in internal movements by year in Spain and Italy (I)
The weight of their 30%
35%
800.000
900.000
1.000.000
Spain
Italygmoves over all internalflows has graduallyincreasedIn 2008 30 per cent of
20%
25%
mou
vem
ents
500 000
600.000
700.000
mm
igra
nts
Italy
Immigration Spain
Immigration Italy
In 2008, 30 per cent ofall residence changes inSpain.15 per cent in Italy
10%
15%
% o
f int
erna
l m
200 000
300.000
400.000
500.000
Num
ber o
f i
15 per cent in Italy.Singularity of the Spanishcase (no restriction toundocumented
PERCENTAGE OF INTERNAL MIGRATION OF FOREIGNERS BY MUNICIPALITY OF DESTINATION/ORIGIN. SPAIN 2007
Origin Destination
Zero or no data< 5 per cent5 - 15 per cent15 - 40 per cent> 40 per cent
PERCENTAGE OF INTERNAL MIGRATION OF FOREIGNERS BY MUNICIPALITY OF PERCENTAGE OF INTERNAL MIGRATION OF FOREIGNERS BY MUNICIPALITY OF DESTINATION/ORIGIN. ITALY 2007
O i iOriginDestination
Zero or no data< 5 per cent5 15 t5 - 15 per cent15 - 40 per cent> 40 per cent
Internal net migration of foreigners by region in Spain and It l (2002 2007)Italy (2002 – 2007)
20032002 2003 2004
2005 2006 2007
P ti f i t l t b d t f Proportion of internal movements by sex, age and type of migration Spain (2008) and Italy (2006)
Spain (2008)
50%
60%
Italy (2006)
50%
60%
30%
40%
30%
40%
0%
10%
20%
0%
10%
20%
A b tit t i di d l i t l i ti i S i ?
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80Age of migration
Short distance Males Medium & Large distance MalesShort distance Females Medium & Large distance Females
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80Age of migration
Short distance Males Medium & Large distance MalesShort distance Females Medium & Large distance Females
A substitute process in medium and large internal migration in Spain?50 per cent of young male movements in interprovincial migration in 2008in Spain and 15 per cent in Italy in 2006
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Results. Demographic structure
* Foreigners are far more mobile than Spanish and Italian nationals (three times as mobile on average in Spain).
Spain (2002-2004)
140
160
180
Italy (2002-2004)
140
160
180
80
100
120
80
100
120
140
20
40
60
20
40
60
00-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
Spanish males Spanish females F (males) F (females)
00-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
Italian males Italian females F (males) F (females)
Gross migraproduction rates by sex and nationality. Spain (2001-2004) and Italy (2000-2003)
European Union 15+CEE+Norway+Switzerland 1,069 1,267* 1,326* ,845*
Central-Eastern Europe 1,411* 1,617* 1,502* 1,123Northern Africa 1,657* 1,579* 1,206* 1,519*rest of Africa 1 273* 1 447* 1 223** 1 341*Subcontinent of birth rest of Africa 1,273 1,447 1,223 1,341Western Asia ,814 ,788 1,021 1,152South-Central Asia 1,813* ,940 1,749* 1,625*Eastern Asia 1,129 ,852 2,273* 1,028North America/Oceania ,880 ,898 ,980 1,203S h C A i
dependent variable:
change of South-Centre America 1,459* 1,365* 1,281* 1,282*
Type of household
one-person hhmarried/cohab couple, no children ,834* 1,523* ,592* 1,078**married/cohab couple, with children
,299* ,353* ,515* ,325*
change of municipality/region of
residence in the previous yearyp
single-parent family ,434* ,366* ,725* ,354*extended family, relatives only ,577* ,585* ,751* ,686*other ,857* ,820* 1,376* 1,269*Less than primary completedPrimary completed 1 076* 1 301* 1 271* 1 360*
previous year(0: no, 1: yes)
* significant for α=0,05, ** significant for α=0,1
CitizenNon citizen arrived before 1996 1,279 ,302** 1,046 1,147 1,252
Source: 2001 Census microdata, from IPUMS international database. Italy and Spain
Non citizen arrived post-1996 2,559* 1,118 1,367 2,618* 4,074*Constant ,005
* ,004* ,004* ,001* ,003* ,004*
In sum (I),
The similarity of the data source on internalmigration in Spain and Italy let us make ag p ycomparative study (but with the particularity thatundocumented immigrants are registered inSpain Sources and not in Italy)Spain Sources and not in Italy)The participation of immigrants in internalmigration system in Spain and Italy is increasingmigration system in Spain and Italy is increasing,but it depends on the evolution of the number ofannual inflows (positive effects). In addition, thed ti f id h ti t ff tduration of residence has a negative strong effectin the mobility of foreigners.
In sum (II),
The percentage of foreigners in internal migrationin Spain and Italy changes significantly when wein Spain and Italy changes significantly when weconsider age, gender and type of migration.W id tif i S i d It l t iWe can identify in Spain and Italy entry regionsof immigrants with a territorial role of internal
di t ib ti (l i i t ) d thredistribution (lose immigrants) and another onewith a role of final destination region (gaini i t )immigrants).
In sum (III),
Foreigners are more mobile than natives inS i d It l ith t diff bSpain and Italy, with great differences bygender.Africans and Asians have the highestintensity of mobility in Spain and Italy butintensity of mobility in Spain and Italy, butLatin-Americans are more mobile in Spainth i It lthan in Italy.
Further researchFurther research
Use the whole Census dataset for foreignhouseholds in Spainhouseholds in SpainStudy in more detail the intra-group differences(for instance Moroccans vs Gambians)(for instance, Moroccans vs Gambians)Apply multilevel models to disentangle somecontextual effectscontextual effectsIntroduce other explanatory variables related tothe labour market the social network and thethe labour market, the social network and thetiming of the family constitution in Spain