The South East Australia Climate Initiative ACRE workshop, April2, 2009 • Brief description • Summary of themes • Issues • Spatial problem (downscaling) • Temporal problem (synthetic time series) Acknowledgements: SEACI colleagues, Wendy Craik, Bryson Bates, QCCCE colleagues
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The South East Australia Climate Initiative ACRE workshop, April2, 2009 Brief description
The South East Australia Climate Initiative ACRE workshop, April2, 2009 Brief description Summary of themes Issues Spatial problem (downscaling) Temporal problem (synthetic time series) Acknowledgements: SEACI colleagues, Wendy Craik, Bryson Bates, QCCCE colleagues. 14% of Australia. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The South East Australia Climate InitiativeACRE workshop, April2, 2009
PDF for natural varib. and model greenhouse signal uncertainty
We need
Temporal problem:Integration of historical climate data with
projection information
Current (2008) climate and future climate can be estimated the same way: model signal plus natural variability
Climate envelope will be modified as time goes by based on model improvement and evaluation, and assimilation of the observed trend by some means (Penny Whetton)
One option for generating synthetic weather series which capture climate change signals
Assume the climate at site A is projected to resemble the present-day climate at site B by 2100. A feasible synthetic weather series may be
Past to the present: site A as observed
2100: Site B as observed
Present to 2100: Weighted between A and B
(preserves correlation between variables)
A
B
Warmer and drier
SEACI is tackling the following problems:• Better understanding of the drivers of observed climate change
over SEA• Improving projections of climate change• Improving estimates of impacts on runoff, water storages which
can inform medium term management practice and long term policy
• Developing seasonal prediction products which can inform agriculture
Quality reanalysis products are essential for:• Assessing GCMs• Interpreting the outputs from climate models via statistical