The Social Dimensions of Climate Change

The Social Dimensions of Climate ChangeReconciling climate change and development

The Washington Center

Washington, DC | 6 December 2010

Presentation by Carina [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


PURPOSE of today’s lecture

To demonstrate WHY a social dimensions of climate change perspective contributes to a more holistic analysis of climate change impacts on human and social systems

To understand HOW this perspective can inform sustainable development interventions

The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development

The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010

SCOPE of today’s lecture

๏What are the social dimensions of climate change?

๏Understanding vulnerability and resilience

๏Complex social responses to climate change and the link to development

๏ Importance of governance

๏Devising climate-resilient development policies at Cancun and beyond



Climate Change: An assessment

Unequivocal means that climate change is real and undeniable

Accelerating means that the effect is getting worse

“Very Likely” Anthropogenic implies a probability of more than 90% that it is human induced and not the result of natural causes



PowerTransportIndustryBuildingsLand useAgricultureWasteOther energy

Climate Change: human contribution

Climate Change and DevelopmentAn additional stress on an already stressed system



IPCC projected natural impacts

complex social responses

equity

human rights and other implications

Temperature rises, extreme weather events, changes in hydrological cycles, sea level rise, threats to unique systems and biodiversity, increase in flooding and storm surges

Loss of livelihoods; health/fatalities; food/water insecurity; migration; conflict; damage to infrastructure; decline in natural systems services; distribution of impacts

Adequate standard of living; minimum means of subsistence; health; food; water; self-determination; property; culture; life; education; gender, indigenous and children

Process and substantive outcomes for vulnerable populations

Vulnerability

Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation in which a system is EXPOSED, its SENSITIVITY, and its ADAPTIVE CAPACITY (IPCC 2007a, p21)



Exposure to Risk

Exposure - the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is subjected, such as:

๏Risks to unique and threatened systems (coral)

๏Extreme weather events (storm surges and sea swells)

๏Reduced agricultural productivity

๏Increased water insecurity

๏Increased health risk

๏Large-scale singularities

๏Aggregate impacts (impacts worsen over time)



Exposure to RiskDrought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture

Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All Low lying All Low lying Sudan

Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal

Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe

India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali

Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia

Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco

Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger

Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India

Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi

Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria

Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia

Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan

Low income High incomeMiddle income

Six Climate Threats: Top Twelve Countries Most at Risk

Source: World Bank 2008



๏ Geographic context

๏ Dependence on the environment for livelihoods, food, fuel, shelter and medicine

๏ Asset and resource deficiency

๏ Governance / political economy issues

๏ Access to information, decision making and justice

Sensitivity - Intersecting inequalities - produce different experiences of climate change impacts:


Sensitivity


Who are vulnerable?

๏ Women

๏ Indigenous Peoples

๏ The urban poor

๏ Inhabitants of small island states

๏ Vulnerability is not a uniform taxonomy


Sensitivity


Climate change will exert an additional stress on an already sensitive system


90% of the world’s poor depend on forests for their income

30% of the population - more than 800 million people - is malnourished

70% of the people who live in extreme poverty are women and girls

Sensitivity


Adaptive Capacity

Strengthening adaptive capacity by building assets, capital and resources

๏Human

๏ Social and cultural

๏Natural

๏ Physical

๏ Financial

๏Research and Innovation



Resilience

Resilience occurs where adaptive capacity is strong, inequalities are addressed, and exposure minimized. It reflects the ability to deal with change and continue to develop.



Complex social response: Loss of livelihoods

๏ Livelihood sources of the poor are usually narrow and climate-sensitive

๏ 2.6bn people are dependent on agriculture

๏ In periods of stress they draw down on a variety of assets and resources leaving them further exposed to the next risk.



Complex social response: Health and fatalities

๏ Vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue and yellow fever are sensitive to temperature and precipitation patterns. Today, approximately 40% of the world’s population is at risk from malaria; this is projected to rise to 80 % by 2080.

๏ Ill-health reduces productivity and perpetuates poverty; financial resources are increasingly being stretched by climate-related disasters and outbreaks.



Complex social response: Migration and displacement

๏ By 2050, up to 200 million people may be permanently displaced due to climate change (IPCC)

๏ Global temperature increases of 3–4°C could result in 330 million people being permanently or temporarily displaced as a result of flooding (UNDP)

๏ Migration: result of failed adaptation or legitimate coping strategy?



Increased incidence of violent conflict

๏ Climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” that heightens the conditions for internal conflict, sows the seeds of instability in already volatile regions, and increases the likelihood of failed states.



Damage to infrastructure and utilities

๏ Slow and rapid climate impacts destroys assets and infrastructure

๏ Public utilities can be severely undermined with impacts on long-term development



Where are we now?

Lead (1) - Shaping policy responses:

From Kyoto to Cancun

Climate building blocks



Kyoto

Missed opportunities and failed promises

A new beginning in Bali

Changing our perspective

All roads lead to Copenhagen

Cancun and beyond



The Building Blocks

๏Mitigation

๏Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)

๏Adaptation

๏Technology

๏Finance



Renewable Energy: Co-benefits

๏GHG Reductions

๏Economic returns for those who innovate

๏Employment and local development

๏ Increased security of supply

๏Reduced emissions of other pollutants and health benefits



Adaptation

๏Planned versus autonomous adaptation

๏First Generation

๏Second Generation



Technology

๏Research and innovation

๏ Investment and political will

๏Development and deployment

๏Access and supporting structures



๏How much is required?

๏New and additional?

๏How to generate funding?

๏How to disburse / target funding?

Finance

Estimates put the cost of climate change at between $4bn and $109bn per year (Stern 2006 / UNDP 2007)



Finance

Baseline ODA (up to 0.7% of GNP)GDP Contribution (0.5% - 1%)Carbon TaxesGeneral taxes and specific fundsAviation / Shipping taxGHG LevyTax on Financial Transactions (Tobin Tax)Emissions Cap and TradeAuctioning of Emissions RightsCDM and Carbon Offset Markets

Source: How will the world finance climate change action? World Bank presentation to the Bali Brunch, April 2009



Governanceimproved policies, processes and outcomes

“The great tragedy of sustainable development is that we have not invented a politics to go with the concept”.

James MacNeill, former Secretary General of the Brundtland Commission



Vulnerable communities are least responsible for the cause and least able to deal with the consequences of climate change.

Scales and Principles

Global: UNFCC, Kyoto, Bali Roadmap

Regional: EU and other initiatives

Local / Sub-national:Initiatives at provincial, community and household level

National:Policies at the state level



The Social Dimensions of Climate ChangeConcluding thoughts

Climate change impacts are already altering the context for development.

Are we ready for those changes?



Possible Effects of Climate Change Policy:

EQUITY

RESILIENCE VULNERABILITY

CO-BENEFITS NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS

INEQUITY




What can you do?

Lead (2) - The Four Cs:Citizen

Consumer

Communicator

Change Agent


Thank you!

[email protected]





The Social Dimensions of Climate Change

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