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The social bases of conspiracy theories

Jan 22, 2018

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Page 1: The social bases of conspiracy theories

The Social Bases of Conspiracy TheoriesA L L Y O U N E E D T O K N O W A B O U T …

W W W . P E T E R A C H T E R B E R G . C O M

Page 2: The social bases of conspiracy theories

JFK: who’s responsible for his death?

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 3: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Is the media controlling what we see?

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 4: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Is the media controlling who we are?

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 5: The social bases of conspiracy theories

9/11: who is responsible?

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 6: The social bases of conspiracy theories

What is in those vaccinations against theswine flu?

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 7: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Are aliens already among us?

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 8: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Trump?

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 9: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories in the West

•Belief that ‘behind the societal curtains’ evil, malevolent groups are indoctrinating individuals and/ or governing society

•“Agency panic” (Melley, 2000)

•Three central elements: “nothing is what it seems”, “there is no such thing as coincidence” and, of course, the “truth is out there’” (Barkun, 2003)

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 10: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories in the West

Developments….

•Popularizing: from subculture to mainstream (Knight, 2000; Kellner 2002)

•Normalization: from irrational pathology (e.g. Popper, 1948) to hyper-rationality (Melley, 2000; Harambam, 2017)

•Transformation: from secure to insecure paranoia (Knight, 2000)

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 11: The social bases of conspiracy theories

DataCROCUS Survey on Worldviews in the Netherlands III: Religion, Politics, and Anti-Institutionalism. Rotterdam/Tilburg: CentERData. (Achterberg, P., Manevska, K., De Koster, W., Aupers, S., Mascini, P., & Van der Waal, J. ;2012)

◦ N=1,302

◦ Response rate: 76.1%

◦ Representative for the Dutch population (after weighing)

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 12: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Measuring affinity with conspiracytheoriesNot directly–

◦ Impartial measure

◦ Low chance of variation in affinity

◦ So – asked about people who say stuff about:◦ 9/11

◦ Swine flu

◦ Landing on the moon

◦ Death of princess Di

◦ Powerful elites

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 13: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Factoranalyse

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 14: The social bases of conspiracy theories

The social bases of support forconspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 15: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Modernization and its discontentsAnomie and Alienation: The twin maladies of modernity (Zijderveld, 2002)

Emile Durkheim: erosion of community and anomie

Max Weber: rationalization of modern institutions and alienation (institutional distrust)

Conspiracy theories: Find meaning and purpose in anonymous systems and events (the truth is out there)

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Page 16: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Cultural discontents and educationallevel

•Elchardus & Smits (2002) – and many, many more studies in the

(inter)national research literature:

•Institutional discontents and Anomie

•Especially among the lower educated!

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Page 17: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Social bases of conspiracy

theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Higher educatedAffinity with conspiracy

theories

-0,25

Controlled for gender, age, religiosity, income

Institutional distrust

Anomia

0,28

0,25

-0,13

Page 18: The social bases of conspiracy theories

CT’s as religion for secular people?

Disenchantment & Cultural rationalization (Weber, 1978)

Conspiracy theories find meaning in

just about all phenomena (cf. Aupers, 2012; Melley, 2000).

Secular people:

Atheists (rationality)

Agnostics (not sure)

New Age Spirituals (Anti-Institutionalist, things happen for a reason)

Social bases of conspiracy

theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Page 19: The social bases of conspiracy theories

These differences can be explained away by anomie and institutional distrust

Mean affinity with

ct’s

N

Agnostic 2,02 239

Atheists 1,77 292

Spiritual believers 2,03 444

Traditional believers 1,88 225

F 8,06*** 1200

Social bases of conspiracy

theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Page 20: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Boosting educational conflicts?Agnostic Atheists Spiritual

believers

Traditional

believers

Education -0,20** -0,15* -0,22** -0,13 n.s.

Mean score affinity for lower

educated

2,21 1,98 2,23 1,92

Mean score affinity for higher

educated

1,81 1,60 1,84 1,74

Social bases of conspiracy

theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Page 21: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Affinity with political backgroundThree major findings:

1. Non-voter are more likely to support conspiracy theories (Olliver & Wood, 2014 )◦ Experimental evidence by Jolley and Douglas (2014)

Social bases of conspiracy

theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Page 22: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Affinity with political backgroundThree major findings:

2. Right-wing voters will on average support conspiracy theories more◦ Voter for Republicans will support these theories more than republicans(Olliver & Wood, 2014)

Social bases of conspiracy

theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Page 23: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Affinity with political backgroundThree major findings:

3. Supporters for populist rightist and - leftist parties will support conspiracy theories more◦ Van Prooijen et al. (2014) extremist ideology

◦ Krouwel & Van Prooijen (2014) Dutch PVV and Socialist Party voters

Social bases of conspiracy

theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Page 24: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Mechanism 1Cultural discontents:

◦ Anomie (Srole, 1956) – feeling threatened by the complexities of the contemporary social and cultural order

◦ Politics:◦ Lower turnout rates among anomic people (McDill, 1962; Erbe, 1964; Hövermann et al., 2014)

◦ Vote more for Republicans (Templeton, 1966) and for Populist Rightist parties (Arzheimer, 2011; Houtman and Achterberg, 2010).

◦ Conspiracy theories:◦ Cultural Rationalization (Weber, 1963 [1922])

◦ Strong relationships: (Abalakina‐Paap et al., 1999, Van Prooijen et al, 2015)

Social bases of conspiracy

theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Page 25: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Mechanisms 2 and 3Institutional distrust:

◦ Politics:◦ Lower turnout rates among those with higher levels of institutional distrust (Karp & Banducci, 2008)

◦ Vote more for off-centre political parties (Mair, 1999, Lau, 1985; Achterberg & Mascini, 2013)

◦ Conspiracy theories:◦ Institutional order is always criticised (Knight, 2000, Melley, 2000)

Institutional knowledge:◦ Politics:

◦ People with less knowledge: less engaged and lower turnout (Galston 2001; Larcinese, 2007)

◦ No clear connection to rightist of leftist voting behavior

◦ Conspiracy theories:◦ It can be argued otherwise, but: Stempel et al. (2007): Those with less knowledge, believe more.

Social bases of conspiracy

theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Page 26: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Mechanism 4Egalitarianism:

◦ Politics:◦ Vote more for Democrats (Houtman et al. 2008) and for Populist Leftist parties (Achterberg & Houtman, 2006).

◦ Conspiracy theories:◦ are generally focused on evil elites that operate within modern politics, democracies, but also within modern corporations

◦ Historical evidence: communism associated with strong fear of conspiracies (Van Prooijen et al, 2015)

Social bases of conspiracy

theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Page 27: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Results NL

Social bases of conspiracy

theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Page 28: The social bases of conspiracy theories

In conclusionModernity related discontents - anomie and institutional distrust very important!

Explains why:

Lower educated…

Agnostics…

Spiritual believers…

Non-voters and extreme leftist and rightist voters…

…have more affinity with conspiracy theories!

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Page 29: The social bases of conspiracy theories

Social bases of conspiracy

theories

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?