The Siberian Far East Oil Pipeline - Harriman Instituteharriman.columbia.edu/files/harriman/cook.pdf · The Siberian Far East Oil Pipeline Connecting Russian oil fields with China

The Siberian Far East Oil PipelineThe Siberian Far East Oil Pipeline

Connecting Russian oil fields with China and the Pacific

Connecting Russian oil fields with China and the Pacific

Since the 1990s, there have been three differenteastbound routes suggested for this pipeline:

1) The first would run just south of Lake Baikal, through Tunka National Park, across the Selenga River, over several high mountain ranges

2) The second route would go north of Baikal, within 800 meters of its shore, and continued along the BAM railroad to China

3) The latest plans are to skirt much further (some 200 kilometers) north of Baikal, deep into the Siberian taiga to the Russian east and/or China

Since the 1990s, there have been three differenteastbound routes suggested for this pipeline:

1) The first would run just south of Lake Baikal, through Tunka National Park, across the Selenga River, over several high mountain ranges

2) The second route would go north of Baikal, within 800 meters of its shore, and continued along the BAM railroad to China

3) The latest plans are to skirt much further (some 200 kilometers) north of Baikal, deep into the Siberian taiga to the Russian east and/or China

Each of the 3 proposed pipelines would be more than twice the length of the Alaska pipeline.

The southern route---why it was not chosen

A public environmental impact assessment conducted by our NGO colleagues at the Baikal Regional Organization uncovered the following dangers:

Earthquakes: The pipeline would run through lands that were prone to large temblors (up to 8.0 on the Richter scale). About 150 years ago years ago, 200 square kilometres(77 square miles) of lakeshore sank under water after a large earthquake.

The southern route---why it was not chosen

A public environmental impact assessment conducted by our NGO colleagues at the Baikal Regional Organization uncovered the following dangers:

Earthquakes: The pipeline would run through lands that were prone to large temblors (up to 8.0 on the Richter scale). About 150 years ago years ago, 200 square kilometres(77 square miles) of lakeshore sank under water after a large earthquake.

The route for the pipeline would cross many rivers where spring flooding is an issue

The pipeline would have to pass through high mountain passes (up to 9,000 feet), which are prone to land- and rock-slides and very heavy winds (measured up to 150 mph).

The entire route would pass through areas of shallow permafrost, where a warmer pipeline would melt the permafrost and cause it to subside.

Original plans would have the pipeline laid above-ground for about 17% of the entire span. In Alaska, where permafrost is less prevalent, some 50% of the pipe is laid upon stilts above ground.

The entire route would pass through areas of shallow permafrost, where a warmer pipeline would melt the permafrost and cause it to subside.

Original plans would have the pipeline laid above-ground for about 17% of the entire span. In Alaska, where permafrost is less prevalent, some 50% of the pipe is laid upon stilts above ground.

Even the Transneft Company has admitted in its early work that "É.on e factor affecting the work is the natural conditions, including bogs and permafrost."

Facts about Baikal

What makes Lake Baikal unique?

Depth: 5,315 feet (1,620 m)--the deepest lake in the world

Holds more than 23% of all fresh liquid water in the world

At >25 million years old, it is the oldest lake in the world

There are over 1,000 endemic species in (or near) the lake, 3000 species in all. This includes the unique Baikal seal and the Siberian sable

Facts about Baikal

What makes Lake Baikal unique?

Depth: 5,315 feet (1,620 m)--the deepest lake in the world

Holds more than 23% of all fresh liquid water in the world

At >25 million years old, it is the oldest lake in the world

There are over 1,000 endemic species in (or near) the lake, 3000 species in all. This includes the unique Baikal seal and the Siberian sable

Numerous indigenous peoples live around the lake: Evenk, Buryat, and Tofalar

Additional doubts were raised as to the legality of routing the pipeline to the south of Baikal:

The Russian laws on protected lands expressly forbid the construction of pipelines through national parks (such as Tunka National Park)

The Russian national law on Baikal also states that no oil pipeline can be built within a distance of 30 km of the lake.

The pipeline would also violate Russian laws on protecting endangered species

There were also doubts that the official environmental impact assessment was done in a way that never allowed for full public participation.

Additional doubts were raised as to the legality of routing the pipeline to the south of Baikal:

The Russian laws on protected lands expressly forbid the construction of pipelines through national parks (such as Tunka National Park)

The Russian national law on Baikal also states that no oil pipeline can be built within a distance of 30 km of the lake.

The pipeline would also violate Russian laws on protecting endangered species

There were also doubts that the official environmental impact assessment was done in a way that never allowed for full public participation.

Some of the technical plans for operating thepipeline were not up to international standards. What was lacking was an adequate system for:

1. Detecting leaks along the pipeline2. Monitoring the pipeline for potential spills or other

accidents3. Taking anti-corrosion precautions4. Installing spill response programs5. Installing background monitoring programs to understand

the impact that would result from any possible spill6. Providing for financial liability, to ensure that any impact

would be mitigated or compensated

Some of the technical plans for operating thepipeline were not up to international standards. What was lacking was an adequate system for:

1. Detecting leaks along the pipeline2. Monitoring the pipeline for potential spills or other

accidents3. Taking anti-corrosion precautions4. Installing spill response programs5. Installing background monitoring programs to understand

the impact that would result from any possible spill6. Providing for financial liability, to ensure that any impact

would be mitigated or compensated

Much of the oil released in the 1994 Komi spill flowed into local rivers, but at a time when weather conditions helped it to be contained and later collected.

Still, the oil spread out over vast areas of tundra and marshland (covering about 72 sq. miles)

More often than not the driving force behind pipeline construction is the desire to keep construction costs as low as possible. Clean-up costs in Russia are left to the government, or in the case of the Komi spill, to agenciessuch as the World Bank and the EBRD.

"Every year, up to a fifth of Russia's total oil production is lost - much of it through leakage."

By the end of 2003, the pipeline companies were putting forward a second, more northerly route for the pipeline.

Originally this northern pipeline was slated to pass only 800 meters from Lake Baikal.

This would have put it in the middle of the World Heritage Site, as created in 1994.

The pipeline would have run close to the Baikal AmurMainline Railroad, but would still pass over hundreds of rivers and streams

The proximity of the proposed northern pipeline route to Baikal led to not a few public protests…..

By the end of 2003, the pipeline companies were putting forward a second, more northerly route for the pipeline.

Originally this northern pipeline was slated to pass only 800 meters from Lake Baikal.

This would have put it in the middle of the World Heritage Site, as created in 1994.

The pipeline would have run close to the Baikal AmurMainline Railroad, but would still pass over hundreds of rivers and streams

The proximity of the proposed northern pipeline route to Baikal led to not a few public protests…..

The IUCN issued the following statements about the pipeline and Baikal as a World Heritage Site:“Regarding the pipeline, IUCN has been informed that an earlier proposal to cross the World Heritage site was rejected. However a revised proposal includes a number of options for routes which would cross through part of the site.

IUCN recommends:…. to urge the State Party (Russia) to ensure that the proposed transportation route for oil and gas avoids the World Heritage site; and to ensure that no route is selected through the watershed of Lake Baikal without first undertaking a comprehensive EIA to guarantee the highest standards of design and operation.”

The IUCN issued the following statements about the pipeline and Baikal as a World Heritage Site:“Regarding the pipeline, IUCN has been informed that an earlier proposal to cross the World Heritage site was rejected. However a revised proposal includes a number of options for routes which would cross through part of the site.

IUCN recommends:…. to urge the State Party (Russia) to ensure that the proposed transportation route for oil and gas avoids the World Heritage site; and to ensure that no route is selected through the watershed of Lake Baikal without first undertaking a comprehensive EIA to guarantee the highest standards of design and operation.”

Note: Lake Baikal was designated a UNESCO World Heritage site in 1996. Before the breakup of the USSR, some 3-4 million Russian tourists visited the lake every year. The question is whether these tourists will return with an oil pipeline anywhere near the lake.

Note: Lake Baikal was designated a UNESCO World Heritage site in 1996. Before the breakup of the USSR, some 3-4 million Russian tourists visited the lake every year. The question is whether these tourists will return with an oil pipeline anywhere near the lake.

"The route should go north of the area," MrPutin insisted. "In this way we are

significantly reducing the ecological risks before construction begins. We can consider

this agreement final.”

"The route should go north of the area," MrPutin insisted. "In this way we are

significantly reducing the ecological risks before construction begins. We can consider

this agreement final.”

The Russian president went on to say: "If there is even the smallest, the tiniest chance of polluting Baikal, then we must think of future generations. We must do everything to make sure this danger is not just minimized, but eliminated."

The Russian president went on to say: "If there is even the smallest, the tiniest chance of polluting Baikal, then we must think of future generations. We must do everything to make sure this danger is not just minimized, but eliminated."

Later Mr Putin also said: ''Environmental agencies in collaboration with ecological non-governmental organizations will thoroughly monitor compliance with current legislation.''

Later Mr Putin also said: ''Environmental agencies in collaboration with ecological non-governmental organizations will thoroughly monitor compliance with current legislation.''

The newest route brings with it another set of potential problems:

Whatever the exact route, the roads built to construct the pipeline will open huge untouched areas to clear-cut forestry and other resource extraction.Poaching of wild animals, including various endangered species, will be made easier and more widespread along the entire pipeline route.Further east this pipeline will run through many villages where issues of ground water purity and related public safety issues will become prominent.The new pipeline route will be constructed through the Kedrovaya Pad Biosphere Reserve (so recognized by UNESCO).

The newest route brings with it another set of potential problems:

Whatever the exact route, the roads built to construct the pipeline will open huge untouched areas to clear-cut forestry and other resource extraction.Poaching of wild animals, including various endangered species, will be made easier and more widespread along the entire pipeline route.Further east this pipeline will run through many villages where issues of ground water purity and related public safety issues will become prominent.The new pipeline route will be constructed through the Kedrovaya Pad Biosphere Reserve (so recognized by UNESCO).

The pipeline will also run through the territory of the critically endangered AmurLeopard (of which only 35 survive in the wild).

A spokesman for the London Zoo said “The proposed oil pipeline could be the death knell for the last few Amur leopards living in the wild.”

Questions to be answered……

What does the future hold? or more importantly: Where will the pipeline lead?

Directly into China?

All the way to the Pacific Ocean, and onwards (via tanker) to Japan and other markets?

Or to both (with two pipelines further east)?

Questions to be answered……

What does the future hold? or more importantly: Where will the pipeline lead?

Directly into China?

All the way to the Pacific Ocean, and onwards (via tanker) to Japan and other markets?

Or to both (with two pipelines further east)?

How soon will the pipeline be built (if ever?)

Originally plans were to start pumping oil through the pipeline in the year 2005.Have the delays been due to environmental concerns? Or political and economic concerns?Is Russia hoping that either China or Japan will now compete to underwrite larger portions of the pipeline, to make sure that the oil reaches their own markets?Which is more of a threat to the environment, a pipeline to China, or one to the Russian port (that might be built) at Perevoznaya?

How soon will the pipeline be built (if ever?)

Originally plans were to start pumping oil through the pipeline in the year 2005.Have the delays been due to environmental concerns? Or political and economic concerns?Is Russia hoping that either China or Japan will now compete to underwrite larger portions of the pipeline, to make sure that the oil reaches their own markets?Which is more of a threat to the environment, a pipeline to China, or one to the Russian port (that might be built) at Perevoznaya?

Major oil-spill accidents with estimates of quantities released into the environment

Location Year Incident type Gallons spilled

Gulf of Mexico 1979 Blowout of exploratory well 140,000,000

Carribean Ocean 1979 2 Tankers collide 84,000,000

off South Africa 1983 Tanker caught fire 75,000,000

coast of France 1978 Tanker ran aground 67,000,000

off coast of Africa 1991 Tanker explodes 65,000,000

north Atlantic 1988 Tanker spill 40,000,000

off English coast 1967 Tanker spill 37,000,000

Gulf of Oman 1972 Tanker collision 35,000,000

North Pacific 1977 Tanker caught fire 31,000,000

Komi area Russia 1994 Pipeline rupture 30,000,000

Valzez, Alaska 1989 Tanker runs aground 10,000,000

Does a pipeline really need to be built at all?

Strategic Forecasting Inc (Stratfor) has said that: “…..the oil pipeline from Siberia to Russia's Pacific coast….. is not an efficient use of Russia's resources, since the pipeline must plow a new route through rough terrain.”

If it runs out to the Pacific Ocean, then the likelihood of an oil spill (at an earthquake-prone port, or from a tanker running through areas of floating ice and heavy weather) might threaten the gray whales and other marine species along the Pacific Coast.

Does a pipeline really need to be built at all?

Strategic Forecasting Inc (Stratfor) has said that: “…..the oil pipeline from Siberia to Russia's Pacific coast….. is not an efficient use of Russia's resources, since the pipeline must plow a new route through rough terrain.”

If it runs out to the Pacific Ocean, then the likelihood of an oil spill (at an earthquake-prone port, or from a tanker running through areas of floating ice and heavy weather) might threaten the gray whales and other marine species along the Pacific Coast.

Why build another pipeline to China, when there are plans to build a line directly to western China over the Ukok Plateau?

Why not send the Siberian oil to the west, over a much shorter distance to the pipeline grids that already reach east of the Urals?

Can’t the oil just be transported by train, as it is now?

Why build another pipeline to China, when there are plans to build a line directly to western China over the Ukok Plateau?

Why not send the Siberian oil to the west, over a much shorter distance to the pipeline grids that already reach east of the Urals?

Can’t the oil just be transported by train, as it is now?

Why export the oil at all, when there are serious energy deficits in many cities in Siberia and the Russian Far East (i.e., in Magadan, Petropavlovsk, Chita, even Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk)?

Both the Chinese and Japanese markets are thirsting for new sources of energy. Their economies are in much better shape than Russia’s, while local Siberians simply cannot afford to keep and consume their own oil and gas. In the end, Russia’s state-owned and private oil companies would reap greater profits if they sell these petroleum resources to their Asian neighbors.

Why export the oil at all, when there are serious energy deficits in many cities in Siberia and the Russian Far East (i.e., in Magadan, Petropavlovsk, Chita, even Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk)?

Both the Chinese and Japanese markets are thirsting for new sources of energy. Their economies are in much better shape than Russia’s, while local Siberians simply cannot afford to keep and consume their own oil and gas. In the end, Russia’s state-owned and private oil companies would reap greater profits if they sell these petroleum resources to their Asian neighbors.

Isn’t it time to get serious about promoting alternative sources of energy in this part of the world?

Isn’t it time to get serious about promoting alternative sources of energy in this part of the world?