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The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven Reserves of
Efficiency Savings into Energy Models
Bruce Biewald
Presentation to East Coast Energy GroupWashington, DC; November 10, 2004
22 Pearl StreetCambridge, MA 02139617.661.3248 [email protected]
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1. Marginal costs influence behavior2. The shape of CSE curves matters3. Unproven efficiency reserves are typically
ignored4. Unproven oil and gas reserves are not
ignored5. Research is needed to characterize
technological change and unproven efficiency reserves
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Prices for US Electricity, Gas, Oil (nominal $)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1019
70
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
cent
s/kW
h
Residential Electricity Price
Industrial Electricity Price
Petroleum (at 10,000 Btu/kWh)Natural Gas (at 10,000 Btu/kWh)
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Regional Clean Energy Plans
These reports are available on the web: www.repowermidwest.orgwww.poweringthesouth.orgwww.westernresourceadvocates.org/energy/bep.html
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Xenergy, Generic curve
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CSE Curve Data
• Xenergy, Generic curve• Solar Energy Research
Institute, 1981, US• Interlaboratory
Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1997, US
• Tellus, 2002, Pacific NW
• American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State (4)
• Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia (2)
• LBL, 1999, US• SERI, 1981, US
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CSE Curve Data
• LBL, 1995, US• Amory Lovins, 1989, US• Optimal, 2003, New
York State• Xenergy, 2002,
California• Hewlett Energy
Foundation, 2002, California
• Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2002, Pacific NW
• Tellus, 2001, Interior West
• Tellus, 2001, Pacific NW• Tellus, 2001, Utah• NYSERDA, 2003, New
York State (2)
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Solar Energy Research Institute, 1981, US
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Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1997, US
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Tellus, 2002, Pacific NW
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American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State
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American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State
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American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State
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American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State
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Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia
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Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia
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LBL, 1999, US
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SERI, 1981, US
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LBL, 1995, US
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Amory Lovins, 1989, US
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Optimal, 2003, New York State
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Xenergy, 2002, California
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Hewlett Energy Foundation, 2002, California
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Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2002, Pacific NW
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Tellus, 2001, Interior West
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Tellus, 2001, Pacific NW
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Tellus, 2001, Utah
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NYSERDA, 2003, New York State
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NYSERDA, 2003, New York State
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EIA
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EIA
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Hydrocarbon Resource Classification
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US Oil and Gas (as of 1/1/2002)Crude Oil
(billion barrels)
Natural Gas (trillion
cubic feet)Undiscovered 56 222Inferred 49 232Unconventional and assoc. gas NA 611Total lower 48 unproved 105 1064Alaska 24 32Total unproved 130 1096Proven reserves 24 183Total technically recoverable 154 1279
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Oil and Gas MathUndiscovered
+ Inferred+ Proven reserves Geological and engineering data
demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable from know reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions
= Technically recoverable reserves
Producible using current technology but without reference to economic profitability
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IEA Regional Shares
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Proven Reserves by Region
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Ultimately Recoverable
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World Original Resource Base
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Annual Production Scenarios
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Ultimately Recoverable Oil
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Gas Price Forecasts Since 1975
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Generic CSE curve corrected
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Research Ideas
• Analysis of CSE curves – past projections v. what actually happened
• Identify reasons for upturn in CSE price• Characterize reasons and quantify to the
extent possible – by technology.• Apply concepts from oil and gas reserves?