The science of climate change Sir David King Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government British Council/Warsaw University Centre for Environmental Studies 30 March 2005
Jan 15, 2016
The science of climate change
Sir David King
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
British Council/Warsaw University Centre for Environmental Studies
30 March 2005
Source: NASA
The earth’s energy budget
Carbon cycles
Glacial cycles of past 800,000 years
Source: Nature Vol 429
Source University of Berne and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Carbon dioxide levels over the last 60,000 years
379ppm 2004
Simulated global warming
Observed
simulated by model
Tem
pera
ture
ris
e
deg
rees C
0.0
0.5
1.0
1850 1900 1950 2000
Source: Hadley Centre
Annual European summer temperatures
1900 1950 2000
4
3
2
1
0
Tem
per
atu
re a
no
mal
y (w
rt 1
961-
90)
°C
Summer 2003 value
Annual averageSmoothed trendModel – natural factors only
Source: Hadley Centre
Possible flooding in the UK by 2080s
Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project – key findings
• Continuing with existing policies is not an option – risk becomes unacceptable levels in 3 of the 4 scenarios considered
• The risks can be reduced to present day levels using a broad portfolio of responses
• There are difficult decisions to be taken:– Invest more in sustainable approaches– Adapt to increased flooding
Mitigation - creating a low carbon economy
• UK White Paper published February 2003. Overall objectives are:
– To put the UK on a path to cut CO2 emissions by some 60% by 2050, with real progress by 2020
– To maintain the reliability of energy supplies– To promote competitive markets in the UK and
beyond– To tackle fuel poverty
…and a diverse mix of renewables
Improved energy efficiency…
G8 and EU challenges• Climate Change is a UK priority for G8 and
EU Presidencies in 2005 (African development is the other key priority)
• Climate change is a global problem and requires a global response– Kyoto, European Emissions trading
• Clear vision of energy futures required to enable global collaboration to move forward
• Science, engineering and technology have key roles to play