FACULTY OF OTHER SRI and iRI FACULTIES OF ENVIRONMENT d ENGINEERING FACULTY OF OTHER FACULTIES OF ENVIRONMENT and ENGINEERING The Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecks The Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecks on the road to low-carbon infrastructure Phil Purnell (iRI School of Civil Engineering) Phil Purnell (iRI, School of Civil Engineering) Katy Roelich (iRI & SRI, School of Earth & Environment) Julia Steinberger (SRI) D id D (iRI) J th B h (SRI) David Dawson (iRI), Jonathan Busch (SRI) Resilience and Society: Energy Infrastructure: U Northumbria, 26 Apr 2012
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School of somethingFACULTY OF OTHERSRI and iRIFACULTIES OF ENVIRONMENT d ENGINEERINGFACULTY OF OTHERFACULTIES OF ENVIRONMENT and ENGINEERING
The Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecksThe Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecks on the road to low-carbon infrastructure
Phil Purnell (iRI School of Civil Engineering)Phil Purnell (iRI, School of Civil Engineering)Katy Roelich (iRI & SRI, School of Earth & Environment)Julia Steinberger (SRI)D id D (iRI) J th B h (SRI)David Dawson (iRI), Jonathan Busch (SRI)
Resilience and Society: Energy Infrastructure: U Northumbria, 26 Apr 2012
Changing infrastructure
• 500 projects; £250 billion
Changing infrastructure
500 projects; £250 billion
• environmental impacts –reducing the carbon intensity
• The nature of our national infrastructure needs to be a primary driver in the move towards a low carbon economy …infrastructureeconomy …infrastructure must also be adaptable… to meet changing demand through the adoption of newthrough the adoption of new technologies and materials
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Changing material mix
• Embedding new low CO2
Changing material mix
Embedding new low CO2technology will introduce critical materials into infrastructure: e.g.
• Nd - motors/generators for wind turbines & electric vehicles
• Cr – low CO2 reinforced concrete
• Not just elements: e.g. aggregates, components, lubricants, polymerspolymers…
• Existing infrastructure = aggregate stock of aExisting infrastructure aggregate stock of a given substance; no information on location
Properties or q alit of the s bstances (e g• Properties or quality of the substances (e.g. Cr as element or alloy) are not generally explicitly accounted forexplicitly accounted for.
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The Project: A New Model
• the flow of materials into & out of infrastructure;
The Project: A New Model
the flow of materials into & out of infrastructure;
• the stocks of materials contained within infrastructure during operation and demolition;infrastructure, during operation and demolition;
• the location and properties of these materials and the components they are a part of;the components they are a part of;
• the criticality of key materials, in terms of s bstit tabilit and s ppl riskssubstitutability and supply risks;
Lowest annual peak is equivalent to£6 billion (present
k t i )market price)
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2Summary2Summary
• Potential for low-CO2 infrastructure roll-out to be disruptedPotential for low CO2 infrastructure roll out to be disrupted by materials criticality: thus assessments of vulnerability need to be inniiated to inform policy decisions
• Enhanced stocks & flows models can highlight likely criticalities: advanced models will enumerate vulnerability
A ll ‘ t i ’ t ti l f i ifi t• As well as ‘scare stories’, potential for significant resource recovery from the infrastructure can also be identified