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The Scarcity Trap:The Scarcity Trap: material ... · PDF fileThe Scarcity Trap:The Scarcity Trap: ... Phil Purnell (iRI, School of Civil Engineering) Katy Roelich ... Scoring criteria

Feb 06, 2018

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  • School of somethingFACULTY OF OTHERSRI and iRIFACULTIES OF ENVIRONMENT d ENGINEERINGFACULTY OF OTHERFACULTIES OF ENVIRONMENT and ENGINEERING

    The Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecksThe Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecks on the road to low-carbon infrastructure

    Phil Purnell (iRI School of Civil Engineering)Phil Purnell (iRI, School of Civil Engineering)Katy Roelich (iRI & SRI, School of Earth & Environment)Julia Steinberger (SRI)D id D (iRI) J th B h (SRI)David Dawson (iRI), Jonathan Busch (SRI)

    Resilience and Society: Energy Infrastructure: U Northumbria, 26 Apr 2012

  • Changing infrastructure

    500 projects; 250 billion

    Changing infrastructure

    500 projects; 250 billion

    environmental impacts reducing the carbon intensity

    The nature of our national infrastructure needs to be a primary driver in the move towards a low carbon economy infrastructureeconomy infrastructure must also be adaptable to meet changing demand through the adoption of newthrough the adoption of new technologies and materials

    2

  • Changing material mix

    Embedding new low CO2

    Changing material mix

    Embedding new low CO2technology will introduce critical materials into infrastructure: e.g.

    Nd - motors/generators for wind turbines & electric vehicles

    Cr low CO2 reinforced concrete Not just elements: e.g. aggregates,

    components, lubricants, polymerspolymers

    http://www.cathodic.co.uk/information/19/14/Elgard_General_Information.htm

    3

  • Changing material mix

    Scale of infrastructure means

    Changing material mix

    Scale of infrastructure means that change in demand can be a step-changeg

    Multiples, not fractions e g low CO2 concrete: move to 50%e.g. low CO2 concrete: move to 50%

    stainless steel rebar would double EU Cr imports; move to 10% Ti-based cathodic protection could x10 EU Ti imports.p p

    Previously abundant materials may become criticaly

    http://www.cathodic.co.uk/information/19/14/Elgard_General_Information.htm

    4

  • CrCr: India, : India, KazstanKazstan, Iran, Iran

    NdNd: China : China (97%)(97%)

    CrCr: SA, : SA, ZimbabweZimbabwe

    VulnerabilityVulnerability: EU/UK are often 100% importers Passive/reactive price & supply volatility: GeopoliticalPassive/reactive price & supply volatility: Geopolitical

    issuesMap source: http://ec.europa.eu/commission_2010-2014/tajani/hot-topics/raw-materials/index_en.htm 5

  • GeopoliticsGeopolitics

    The US and the EU asked Beijing to clarify its policy on mineral exports after China exports after China stopped shipping to Japan.

    The stoppage followed a spat between China and Japan last month over islands whose ownership is disputed

    6

    ownership is disputed.

  • How do we assure supply?

    Strategic stockpiling

    How do we assure supply?

    Strategic stockpiling

    Trade agreements

    Recycling collection vs. mining

    i f t t infrastructure urban mining, urban ores,

    urban concentrates Some metal has more urban concentrates where, when, in what state

    are the stocks?

    Some metal has more onsurface stock than

    underground stocka e t e stoc sK HALADA, National Institute for

    Materials Science, Japan7

  • Existing models: Stocks & FlowsExisting models: Stocks & Flows

    8

  • S&F LimitationsS&F Limitations

    One substance at a time

    Existing infrastructure = aggregate stock of aExisting infrastructure aggregate stock of a given substance; no information on location

    Properties or q alit of the s bstances (e g Properties or quality of the substances (e.g. Cr as element or alloy) are not generally explicitly accounted forexplicitly accounted for.

    9

  • The Project: A New Model

    the flow of materials into & out of infrastructure;

    The Project: A New Model

    the flow of materials into & out of infrastructure;

    the stocks of materials contained within infrastructure during operation and demolition;infrastructure, during operation and demolition;

    the location and properties of these materials and the components they are a part of;the components they are a part of;

    the criticality of key materials, in terms of s bstit tabilit and s ppl riskssubstitutability and supply risks;

    the interactions between these factors.

    10

  • 2The Project: Methodology2The Project: Methodology

    11

  • 2Potential initial case studies2

    Low carbon concretes Move to wind power, tidal

    Potential initial case studies

    (Halcrow)

    Move to fibre optic control and HVDC in power distribution

    pgeneration etc (Halcrow)

    Treatment at source vscentralised treatment, anaerobicHVDC in power distribution

    (National Grid)

    New rail electrification (Halcrow)

    centralised treatment, anaerobic digestion & CHP (United Utilities/Halcrow)

    Zero-carbon buildings (Arup)(Halcrow)

    Move to electric vehicles (U.Newcastle)

    Zero-carbon buildings (Arup)

    Active comms on road infrastructure (Halcrow)

    Energy Storage bulk vsdecentralised (National Grid)

    Underground vs overground Decision matrix

    U de g ou d s o e g ou dconducters (National Grid)

    12

  • 2Scoring criteria2

    Data availability S&F of materials and components

    Scoring criteria

    Data availability S&F of materials and components Technical competence expertise within team Scale likelihood & specificity of interventionScale, likelihood & specificity of intervention Collaborators on board Politics novelty and impact in multiple sectors the Politics, novelty and impact in multiple sectors the

    wow factor

    Cross-over with known criticalities or scarcities Complexity vs simplicity system boundary clearly

    defined?

    13

  • 2Chosen case studies2

    Key factors: data, scenarios, materials criticality

    Chosen case studies

    Key factors: data, scenarios, materials criticalityWind turbinesWind turbines + low-CO2 reinforced

    concrete

    Electric vehiclesElectric vehicles

    14

  • Model StructureModel Structure

    Infrastructure Technology MaterialsInfrastructure Technology Materials

    Abstract Structure: Components: Materials Abstract stock of the

    required service level

    Structure:physical

    stock of infra-structure that

    Components: physical stock

    of infrastructure parts that

    Materials stocks

    contained in both

    directly supplies the

    service

    pindirectly

    provide the service

    infrastructure and

    components

    15

  • Case study: wind powerCase study: wind power

    Infrastructure Technology MaterialsInfrastructure Technology Materials

    Wind Power Structures: Components: NeodymiumWind Power Structures:Onshore and offshore wind

    turbines

    Components: Permanent

    magnet generators

    Neodymium

    g(PMGs); non-

    PMGs

    Excluded: Transmission; Other renewables generation

    16

  • Model Structure: dynamic S&FModel Structure: dynamic S&F

    Infrastructure Technology MaterialsInfrastructure Technology Materials

    I(s) (t) I(c) (t) I(m) (t)

    Infrastructure stock

    Structure stock

    Component stock

    Materials stockstock

    K(i) (t)stock

    K(s) (t)stock

    K(c) (t)stock

    K(m) (t)

    O(s) (t) O(c) (t) O(m) (t)

    17

  • Model Structure: lifetimesModel Structure: lifetimes

    Infrastructure Technology MaterialsInfrastructure Technology Materials

    I(s) (t) I(c) (t) I(m) (t)

    Infrastructure stock

    Structure stock

    Component stock

    Materials stockgy

    mix

    nt mi

    x

    ntens

    ity

    stock

    K(i) (t)stock

    K(s) (t)stock

    K(c) (t)stock

    K(m) (t)

    Tech

    nolog

    Comp

    one

    Mater

    ial in

    O(s) (t) O(c) (t) O(m) (t)

    St t lif ti C t lif ti M t i l lif ti

    T C M18

    Structure lifetimeL (s) (t, t0)

    Component lifetimeL (c) (t, t0)

    Material lifetimeL (m) (t, t0)

  • Scenario input: wind powerScenario input: wind power

    Future UK wind generation (DECC, 2010)

    Scenarios also contain technology mix (from which materials mix iswhich materials mix is derived)

    ~ current UK electricity capacity

    19

  • Results Nd demandResults Nd demand

    Annual UK Neodymium demand from wind power technology

    20

  • Results Nd demand (

  • Future Additions: Criticality?Future Additions: Criticality?

    UK Low Carbon Technology Share of World Production

    4%

    5%

    on

    3%

    4%

    d pr

    oduc

    tio

    Wi d % d

    2%

    of w

    orld

    Nd Wind % prod

    Car % prodCombined %

    1%Shar

    e o

    220%

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

  • Scenario input electric vehiclesScenario input electric vehicles

    ~ current UK vehicles registered

    Future UK electric vehicles (total)

    23

    Future UK electric vehicles (total)

  • Results Li demandResults Li demand

    24

  • Results Pt potential recyclateResults Pt potential recyclate

    Lowest annual peak is equivalent to6 billion (present

    k t i )market price)

    25

  • 2Summary2Summary

    Potential for low-CO2 infrastructure roll-out to be disruptedPotential for low CO2 infrastructure roll out to be disrupted by materials criticality: thus assessments of vulnerability need to be inniiated to inform policy decisions

    Enhanced