The Role of Weather and Climate Service Innovation in Adaptation to Climate Change Atte Harjanne, Adriaan Perrels, Väinö Nurmi & Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola.

The Role of Weather and Climate Service Innovation in Adaptation to Climate

ChangeAtte Harjanne, Adriaan Perrels, Väinö Nurmi & Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola

Finnish Meteorological InstitutePresented by: Atte Harjanne

TOPDAD - Tool-supported policy development for regional adaptation

Modeling costs and benefits of different adaptation policies in transport, energy

and tourism sectors in Europe

Background

Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014

Services and products that consist of information about past, present or future weather or climate, their impacts or possible adaption or mitigation actions to manage these impacts.

How do advances in weather and climate services affect adaptation to climate change?

What are the likely advances in the supply and use of these services (especially in transport, energy and tourism sectors)?

Literature review 23 semi-structured expert interviews

Statistical user analysisEconomic modeling excercises

Methods

Adaptation to climate change

Reducing exposure Reducing vulnerability Improving resilience

Strategic / Structural

Comprehensive physical protection

Climate services: +Weather services: ?

Enhanced physical protection

Climate services ++Weather services:+

Enhanced societal preparedness

Climate services: ++Weather services: ?

Operational / Adaptive

Spatial/temporal substitution (avoidance)

Climate services:+Weather services:++

Tailored anticipatory technology

Climate services: +Weather services: ++

Enhanced societal responsiveness

Climate services: +Weather services: ++

Weather and climate services are critical for adaptation actions, whether they are proactive or reactive, endogenous or planned, or if the impacts are permanent or transient.


Or are they?

Reduction in data related

unit-costsThird party access to

observation and model

data

Policies and regulation

Network and data

integration

Improved capacity and increased

optionsto adapt

Market transformation

Drivers and enablers of innovation

Drivers of innovation


Reduction in data related

unit-costs

Third party access to

observation and model data

Network and data

integration

- Improved accuracy (historical trend: 1 day / decade)- Improved resolution in time and space- Broader observation coverage

- Also from consumer mobile devices- Broader offering of services- New time scales:

- Nowcasting- Seasonal forecasting

- More accurate, available, tailored information improved options and capability to adapt

Policy dependency


• Weather and climate services largely science based innovators (Pavitt, 1984). Reliance on public funding and infrastructure• Supercomputers, satellites, radars…• Private actors half-hearted to invest• Also regulation necessary for many of the envisioned services

• Mobile congestion• Standardisation needs• Privacy issues

Policies and regulation

Market transformation• Fragmentation of value network• New roles of national services


New technology – new behavior (1)

New technology – new behavior (2)


Serv

ice

user

s co

mpa

red

to

daily

ave

rage

% of popoulation in the activity

Identified innovations – Transport


• High spatial resolution road weather models useful for both drivers, route planners and road clearance planners • Comprehensive interactive intelligent road weather projection and information system informing and if need be instructing both driver and vehicle

• Further development of ship routing services, with new variables added such as water depth

• Further development regarding storm warnings and storm routes for aviation, high (3D) spatial resolution projections and nowcasts for airports’ airspace

Identified innovations – Energy


• High spatial and temporal resolution projections (overland) for electricity demand relevant parameters (temperature, insolation, wind speed, humidity)

• High spatial and temporal resolution projections for wind speed both on-shore and off-shore at relevant axle heights

• Improvements in projections of effective (on the ground) solar radiation

Identified innovations – Tourism


• Further development in localized multi-feature (and multi-day) forecasts for specific tourist groups and tourism entrepreneurs, and improvement of its access / dissemination – possibly in conjunction with other information portals (e.g. local event lists for the coming days)

Weather Service Chain Analysis


1. ACCURACY - the extent to which weather forecast information is accurate2. APPROPRIATE DATA - the extent to which weather forecast information contains appropriate

data for a potential user3. ACCESS - the extent to which a decision maker has (timely) access to weather forecast

information4. COMPREHENSION - the extent to which a decision maker adequately understands weather

forecast information5. ABILITY TO RESPOND - the extent to which a decision maker can use weather forecast

information to effectively adapt behaviour 6. EFFECTIVINESS OF RESPONSE - the extent to which recommended responses actually help to

avoid damage due to unfavourable weather information7. OVERALL BENEFIT - the extent to which benefits from adapted action or decision are

transferred to other economic agents

Estimating the value – Cost-Loss & WSCA


Katz & Murphy (1997)

Nurmi et al. (2013)

Including innovations


Perrels et al. (2013)

Innovations in road transport could be worth 20 ME per year (Finland)

Conclusions & further research


• The future looks promising but needs some help

• Further research:• Economic quantification: ARIO, agent-based modeling (ETH Zürich)• More insight on the behavioral response needed

• Can there be too much information?• What is the optimal level of tailoring and automation?

Further readingPerrels, A., Harjanne, A., Nurmi, V., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Heyndricx, C. and Stahel, A. (2013), Sector specific and generic impacts of enhanced weather and climate services in a changing climate -The contribution of weather and climate service innovations in adaptation to climate change and its assessment, TOPDAD project deliverable D2.2. Available online: www.topdad.eu

Harjanne, A., Ervasti, T. (2014) Analysis of user trends and behavior in online and mobile weather and climate services, FMI report (upcoming)

Pilli-Sihvola K., Nurmi V., Perrels A., Harjanne A., Bösch P., Ciari F.(2014) Innovations in weather services as a crucial building block for climate change adaptation in road transport (submitted, EJTIR Special Issue)


http://www.topdad.eu/

Katz, R.W. and Murphy, A.H. (1997), Economic value of weather and climate forecasts, Cambridge University Press, U.K.

Nurmi, P., Perrels, A., Nurmi, V. (2013), Expected impacts and value of improvements in weather forecasting on the road transport sector, Meteorological Applications, Vol 20, Iss. 2, pp. 217 – 223.

Pavitt, K. (1984), Sectoral Patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory, Research Policy, Vol. 13, pp. 343-373.

Perrels, A., Harjanne, A., Nurmi, V., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Heyndricx, C. and Stahel, A. (2013), Sector specific and generic impacts of enhanced weather and climate services in a changing climate -The contribution of weather and climate service innovations in adaptation to climate change and its assessment, TOPDAD project deliverable D2.2. Available online: www.topdad.eu

Pielke Jr , R. A. , Sarewitz , D. and Byerly Jr , R. 2000 . ‘Decision making and the future of nature: understanding and using predictions’, in Sarewitz , D. , Pielke Jr , R. A. and Byerly Jr , R. (eds.) Prediction: Science, Decision Making and the Future of Nature. Washington, DC : Island Press , pp. 361 –387

References


Atte [email protected]

Adriaan [email protected]

Poster: UAS-POT3018

The Role of Weather and Climate Service Innovation in Adaptation to Climate Change Atte Harjanne, Adriaan Perrels, Väinö Nurmi & Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola.

Documents

future weather

role of weather

climate change atte

climate service innovation

atte harjanne slide

adaptation actions

model data policies

model data network