Author: (28 pt white text) Title-slide (44 pt green text on green line; 2 nd line below it) Coffee morning Petra Hellegers CTA, 13 April 2012 The role of Water Economics in Food Security
May 21, 2015
Author: (28 pt white text)
Title-slide (44 pt green text on
green line; 2nd line below it)
Coffee morning
Petra Hellegers
CTA, 13 April 2012
The role of Water Economics
in Food Security
Story in four parts
1. Trends that affect future water demand
2. Water productivity gains from specialisation,
basin cooperation and water reallocation
3. Water allocation is a societal question
4. Limited role of economic instruments
Trends that affect future water demand
Population growth, urbanisation, dietary change
Climate change
Rising energy prices
Population growth
Projected growth: from 7 billion people today
to more than 9 billion in 2050
Urbanisation
By 2050 more than 70% of the population
is expected to be urban
Dietary change
More vegetables, fruits, meat, dairy and fish
Possible impacts of climate change on water
Rising temperatures
Irrigation requirements of crops increase
Affect size of snowpack & timing of release
Changing precipitation patterns
More frequent & intense droughts/floods
Sea levels rise
Salt water intrusion
Other, e.g. pollution
Global water cycle
Rising energy prices
- Triggers demand for alternative energy sources:
hydropower and biofuels
- Makes extraction, conveyance and purification costly
Many water problems could be solved,
if only energy would not be so costly
Availability of water
We only make use of a tiny
portion of the available water
Who is the main user of water?
40% of our food is produced on irrigated land,
which is 17% of the world’s cropland
Agriculture is responsible for 70% of all water
used and 90% of all water consumed
Global water gap 2030– assuming no efficiency gains
Unit costs ($/m3) of measures to bridge the gap
Demand versus Supply of water
Demand for water with a low water productivity increases
The value of water for staple crops varies 0.05 - 0.15 $/m3
Costs of making water available increase with quantity supplied
Desalination for irrigation of staple crop is currently not feasible
The current costs of desalination are 0.50 $/m3
Alternative efficient coping strategies
To import cereals
Importing countries are vulnerable to rising global market prices
To acquire foreign land for own food production
Countries have descended on fertile plains across Africa.
The contracts are not only about land, but also about water
Securing food by securing water
The contracts are not only about land, but also about water!
Part 2 Water productivity gains from specialisation,
basin cooperation and water reallocation
Globalisation and trade liberalisation
Offers opportunities for specialisation in
low-value staple crops in rainfed areas and
in high-value cash crops in irrigated areas
When countries in the Nile Basin cooperate,
the Basin can be food self-sufficient in 2025
However, if irrigated area in Sudan expands by 1 million ha
20 BCM less water for Egypt
30% less land use revenues in Egypt
10% less hydropower revenues
Less revenues for the basin as a whole
due to low water productivity in Sudan
Christian Siderius
By combining remote sensing and economic analysis able to
assess the water productivity (in terms of kg/m3 and Rand/m3),
downstream water availability, employment, food security etc.
WIBIS tool to assess implications of a socially desirable allocation
Spatial planning and integrated policy required
Role of water economics
Provides insight into the water productivity gains
($/m3) of reallocation water among regions,
users, generations and population groups
Part 3 Water allocation is a societal question
Other criteria apart from economic criteria
Various social objectives:
Poverty alleviation
Equitable distribution of income and risk
Food self-sufficiency
Sustainability
Economists show foregone benefits of achieving such objectives
Water is often allocated in a socially desirable way
Economists analyse problems –
Politicians eventually decide
Difference between financial and socio-economic value
Water for staple crops has a low financial value, but
a high socio-economic value
Higher wheat price can trigger revolution: Arab Spring
Concluding remarks
Water becomes more scarce
Economics can show the water productivity gains from
specialisation, basin cooperation and water reallocation
but also the foregone benefits of not allocating water in
the most efficient way
Part 4 Limited role of economic instruments
Water markets fail, due to special characteristics of water
Water is part of a system
Usage can be consumptive and non-consumptive
Costs of water re-allocation can be high
Property rights to water are often unclear
Externalities of usage
Water is a public good->consequences for water pricing
It is important to distinguish between
The value of water
The cost of water
The price of water
The value of water
The demand curve for water reflects the maximum
willingness to pay by a consumer for a given water use
Quantity (m3)
Value ($)
The costs of water
The supply curve for water reflects the costs
incurred by the supplier in the provision of water
Quantity (m3)
Costs ($)
The price of water
The tariff actually paid for water use by a user
The market-clearing price is where cost of provisions are equal
to the benefits of usage
The price can also be set by the government at a lower level for
instance for social reasons like access to water
Quantity (m3)
Price ($)
Price < Costs: No full cost recovery
Costs < Value: Profitable to irrigate
Price << Value: Significant increase in price required to reduce demand
Comparison of the price, costs and value of irrigation water
Role of water pricing as an instrument to:
Trigger technology adoption
To give a signal not to waste water
For cost-recovery
But not as “the solution” to balance supply and
demand for water (use other instruments instead)
Thank you very much!
© Wageningen UR
Exchange ideas about the kind of water
related projects CTA is working on
So strategies to cope with water scarcity and climate
change will affect food production in terms of what,
when, where and by whom food will be produced
The competition for water is taking place in the world
grain market and it seems that people that are financially
the strongest will fare best in this competition