The Role of Solid Biomass in Future Energy Systems: Considering Access to Clean Energy Shonali Pachauri Bandung Workshop 4-5 October 2018
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The Role of Solid Biomass in Future Energy Systems: Considering Access to Clean Energy
Shonali PachauriBandung Workshop 4-5 October 2018
Background: Clean Cooking Access LowProportion of Population Dependent on Solid Fuels for Cooking
Background: Associated Health Impacts High
Health & Safety Impacts of Dependence on Solid Fuels
Almost 3 million die prematurely every year due to exposure to household pollution due to inefficient combustion of solid fuelsBack aches, pains, and injuries from
biomass collection
Source: Pachauri et al., ‘Energy Access for Development’, GEA, 2012
Livelihood Impacts of Lacking Access to Modern Energy
Limited productive hours in the day for those who spend time in own fuel collectionLack of access to modern energy
also limits work and business possibilities
Source: Pachauri et al., ‘Energy Access for Development’, GEA, 2012
Equity Impacts of Lack of Access to Modern Energy
The deaths from household pollution and drudgery of fuel collection falls disproportionately on women and childrenPerpetuates poverty, gender and other
social disparities
Source: Pachauri et al., ‘Energy Access for Development’, GEA, 2012
Environmental Consequences of Solid Fuels Dependence
Local forest, land and soil degradationCO2 emissions if biomass is non-
renewably harvestedEmissions of non-CO2 GHG and PIC
with higher GWP Growing evidence of strong climate
impacts of black carbon (soot) for arctic and glacial ice melting
Potential Synergies of Clean Cooking with Other SDGs
• SDG1 – Poverty alleviation• SDG3 – Improved health• SDG5 – Gender equality• SDG10 – Reduced
inequalities• SDG11 – Livable human
settlements and cities• SDG12 – Improved
production and consumption patterns
• SDG15 - Halt deforestation and prevent biodiversity loss
Source: South Centre
Relationship of Fuel Choices with Income in South Asia
Source: Poblete-Cazanave & Pachauri 2018
Emissions consequences of cooking transition in India between 2001-2011
Change in Share of HHs Using Firewood & LPG in India 2001- 2011
Urban Rural
Exclusive Fuelwood HH 8% 3%
Exclusive LPG HH 17% 5%
Multi – fuel HH (min. LPG + fuelwood)
2% 5%
Source: Singh et al 201711
Estimate of Fuel Use for Cooking• National displacement of 7.6 million tons of biomass.
Almost 1 million tons displaced in rural, while over 6 million tons displaced in urban areas.
• Rural displacement of biomass < urban displacement, as fewer rural HHs gained access compared to urban HHs and average per capita LPG use in urban areas is higher than in rural areas.
• About 217 thousand tons of LPG used in 2011.
Source: Singh et al 201712
Net emissions – assumptions on fNRB
-0.07-0.41 -0.48-0.53
-3.25
-3.794.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Rural HH Urban HH National HH
fNRB = 0
fNRB = 0.3
MtCO2e
Source: Singh et al. 201713
Net emissions: accounting of GHGs
-0.53 -0.70-1.24
-3.25
-4.36
-7.61
-3.79
-5.06
-8.8510.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Kyoto (fNRB = 0.3)Non-Kyoto Climate
Forcing Kyoto + non-Kyoto
Rural HH Urban HH
National HH
MtCO2e
Source: Singh et al 2017
~5% of 2011 HH emissions
14
Net Emissions Estimation - Conclusions
The transition to LPG cooking in India reduced pressure on forests and achieved modest climate benefits, though uncertainties regarding the extent of non-renewable biomass harvesting and suite of climate-active emissions included matters for households emissions accounting and should be considered carefully in any analysis and policy-making.
Population Distribution in S.Asia –Current & in 2040 for Alternate Socio-Economic Futures
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Billi
ons
SSP1 - High Economic Growth, Urbanization
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Billi
ons
SSP2 - Medium Economic Growth
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Billi
ons
SSP3 - Low Economic Growth, High Pop
R < $5/dayR > $5/day
U< $5/dayU> $5/day
Source: Poblete-Cazanave & Pachauri 2018
Scenarios of Cooking Fuel Transition Under SSPs in South Asia in 2040
Source: Poblete-Cazanave & Pachauri 2018
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
R<$5/day R>$5/day U<$5/day U>$5/day
Ene
rgy
in P
J
2040 SSP1- High Growth
ModernBiomass
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
R<$5/day R>$5/day U<$5/day U>$5/day
Ene
rgy
in P
J
2040 SSP2 - Middle of the Road
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
R<$5/day R>$5/day U<$5/day U>$5/day
Ene
rgy
in P
J
2040 SSP3 - Slow Growth
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
R<$5/day R>$5/day U<$5/day U>$5/day
Ener
gy in
PJ
Current state 2015
Additional Policies to Accelerate a Transition Away from Solid Biomass Cooking• R&D for improved combustion and conversion
technologies • Standards for improved stoves• Grants or reduced-cost dissemination of clean stoves• Fuel subsidies on alternative fuels, like LPG• Targeted cash transfers to below poverty line households• Information and education campaigns• Incentivizing electric induction cook stoves
Key Insights• Without new policies achieving the SDG 7 target of universal
access to clean cooking by 2030 unachievable• Futures with higher economic growth, more equitable income
distribution and faster urbanization are likely to have more rapid transitions away from biomass cooking
• Policies that combine subsidies on cleaner fuels (LPG) with grants for the stoves and deposits are more effective
• The emissions consequences of shifting from biomass to LPG cooking are negligible and could be even negative if some biomass is unsustainably harvested
• The potential air quality and health benefits are large and synergies with other SDGs are also significant
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