Charles Soothill 17 June 2014 The role of Gas and Coal? Oxford Transformative Change Alstom Power
Charles Soothill
17 June 2014
The role of Gas and Coal? Oxford Transformative Change
Alstom Power
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 2
Agenda
• The changing markets for electricity and generation technology
• The technologies for transformational change
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 3
Past 50 years of market development Order for new power plant in GW p.a.
6 2 0
5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 3 5 0
6 4 6 6 6 8 7 0 7 2 7 4 7 6 7 8 8 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 8 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2
6 2 0
5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 3 5 0
6 4 6 6 6 8 7 0 7 2 7 4 7 6 7 8 8 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 8 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2
Steam Plant GT Plant Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass
GW p.a.
GW p.a.
Renewable
All boom
Coal boom
Gas boom
First Nuclear Wave
From 1978 exclude GT & ST Industrial size
China Asia Middle East & Africa South & Central America North America Europe
Global boom
Financial Crisis
China boom
US boom
Gas boom
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 4
Other renewable
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Conventional Steam Plant
GT Plant
New Power Plant Orders
Global power market forecast – medium term
Diversified mix – growing share of Renewables across the globe Source: ALSTOM 2013
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME 2014 - 23/06/2014 – P 4
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 5
GAS
HYDRO
SOLAR
TIDAL
COAL
NUCLEAR (conventional island)
GEOTHERMAL
OIL
WIND (offshore and onshore)
BIOMASS
...for new plants or installed base
Alstom Power: present in all markets
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 6
Alstom Thermal Power Installed fleet
> 3’975 plants around the world with Alstom equipment installed
GT Plants ST Plants ST Nuclear Plants Industrial Plants Minimum one Alstom system delivered (gas turbine, steam turbine, generator, boiler/HRSG)
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 7
Renewables impact price Determination process in Europe
35
26
Lignite
25
Nuclear
16 15
44 41
60
Gas
37
Hardcoal
65 70
85
100
62
23
16
6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000
15 10 5 0 MW
10000 9500 9000 8500 2500 7500 7000
75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20
8000 0 2000 500 1500
80
1000
85 90 95
100
€/MWh
6500
23 €/MWh
00:00 - 04:00 04:00 - 08:00
26 €/MWh
08:00 - 12:00
65 €/MWh
44 €/MWh
16 €/MWh
23 €/MWh
Courtesy of RWE
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 8
Renewable capacity lowers usage of conventional portfolio
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
Dem
and
in G
W
operating hours [h/a]
base load
medium load
peak load
2050
2008*
*:schematic
Power plants at minimum load for compensation of dynamic load changes
Annual load duration curve of conventional power plant portfolio in 2008 vs. 2050
Courtesy of RWE
Utilization rates of conventional power plants are decreased Power plants must earn their money in less
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 9
Agenda
• The changing markets for electricity and generation technology
• The technologies for transformational change
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 10
Langage Gas Turbine Combined cycle 900MW dry cooled and looks like a supermarket
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 11
Current operation experience of a GT26 in Europe
GT26 with demonstrated low emissions over wide load range
Load and emission profile of a KA26 in Netherlands over 2 weeks
Operation 25-100% CC plant load
NOx emissions < 15 vppm
CO emissions < 80 vppm
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
January 2014
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 12
Additive manufacturing for complex parts
• SLM gives new freedom in design • Cost savings no tooling
• Time savings hours not weeks
• Improved component performance efficiency and life
Coupon to replace affected area Excellent condition as seen during validation inspection
Joining by brazing Coupon Aperture
milling
Coupon
Aperture
tapered
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Net
Effi
cien
cy (L
HV,
%)
Year
Steam Turbine
Gas Turbine
Combined Cycle
SOFC + Gas Turbine + Steam Turbine
Efficiency is the main driver for gas
SOFC fuel cells Gas plants integration
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 14
Neurath 2 x 1100MW Ultra Supercritical Brown Coal – State of the art
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 15
>50% Project -More Efficient Steam Power Plants
- Efficiency (net) HHV
- Steam Parameter
25 - 30%
33%
Once Through Technology
3480/1005/1050 ( psi /°F/°F) 240/540/565 (bar/°C/°C)
2400/1005/1005 167/540/540
Sliding Pressure Supercritical
5400/1300/1325( psi /°F/°F) 375/700/720 (bar/°C/°C)
4000/1110/1150( psi /°F/°F) 275/600/620 (bar/°C/°C)
4000/1075/1110 ( psi /°F/°F) 275/580/600 (bar/°C/°C)
38 - 40%
T91 Adv Austenitic Materials
1960 1980 2000 2020 1960 1980 2000 2020
- Efficiency (net) HHV
- Steam Parameter
25 - 30%
33%
Once Through Technology
3480/1005/1050 ( psi /°F/°F) 240/540/565 (bar/°C/°C)
2400/1005/1005 167/540/540
Sliding Pressure Supercritical
5400/1300/1325( psi /°F/°F) 375/700/720 (bar/°C/°C)
4000/1110/1150( psi /°F/°F) 275/600/620 (bar/°C/°C)
4000/1075/1110 ( psi /°F/°F) 275/580/600 (bar/°C/°C)
38 - 40%
T91 Adv Austenitic Materials
1960 1980 2000 2020 1960 1980 2000 2020
5400/1330/1400( psi /°F/°F) 375/730/760 (bar/°C/°C)
39 - 41%
48% - 51%
50% - 53%
43% - 46%
49% - 52%
Ni - based Materials 45% - 48%
Precipitation Strengthened Ni - based Materials
5400/1330/1400( psi /°F/°F) 375/730/760 (bar/°C/°C)
39 - 41%
48% - 51%
50% - 53%
43% - 46%
49% - 52%
Ni - based Materials 45% - 48%
Precipitation Strengthened Ni - based Materials
tower tower tower tower tower tower
FGHR Aux Power
RH/RH FGHR Excess Air
Bottoming Cycle
Efficiency comes from cycle temperature and components
Today’s State-of-the-Art
USC
Future
AUSC
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 16
• Ultra-supercritical 450 MWe
• Will capture 2 Million t/y CO2
• Biomass co-firing option leading to zero (or negative!) CO2 emissions
• National Grid’s (NG) CO2 transport & offshore storage & EOR network
• FEED by UK CCS programme
• Selected for NER300 funding UK & EU
Location: Drax Power Station, North Yorkshire, UK
Project Promoters
Oxy-fuel Power Plant CO2 Transport & Storage
ALSTOM DRAX NATIONAL GRID BOC-Linde
Carbon Capture Demonstration Oxy-Combustion White Rose project
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 17
Scenarios 85% CO2 reduction at 2050
17
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0
Rel
ativ
e le
veliz
ed c
ost o
f ele
ctric
ity (-
)
Emission intensity (gCO2/kWh)
Conventional No CCS + Storage + Renewable
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Blackout
• Fuel mix with CCS offers lowest cost scenario
• Without CCS cost level will be far higher (about 50%)
• Without CCS the model provides no solution without blackouts
Conventional No CCS + Renewable
Conventional with CCS + Renewable
CCS not only reduces emissions it ENABLES cost effective integration of renewables
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 18
The role of Gas and Coal? - Summary
• Plant operators face changing market
• Portfolio of fuels, renewables and technologies for energy security
• Flexibility and energy storage to integrate intermittent renewables
• Improved efficiency of components and whole system
• Carbon Capture and Storage for near zero emissions
www.alstom.com
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 20
CCS Level
€ Cents/kWh
Fuel price assumptions: • Imported Hardcoal 62,9 €/ton (FOB ARA) • Gas 9,2 €/mmbtu • Biomass 62,9€/ton • CO2 10 €/ton
With expected capacity factors/utilization rate
50%
60% 80%
90%
25%
Region Central Europe Levelized Cost of electricity – New Power Plant
35% 60%
40%
48%
Sources: ALSTOM & IHS-EER Avg. wholesale/support tariffs in the region
Germany
Very low wholesale prices jeopardize expected profitability of New Power Plants Gas suffers from high fuel price (high marginal costs)
Germany
27%
11%
Germany
80%
CCS Amine Partial Capture
W. Battery Storage
W. Battery Storage