The Role of FUSION in a Long-Term, Global Energy Technology ...

The Role of

FUSION in a Long-Term, Global

Energy Technology Strategy

To Address Climate Change

John Clarke, Jae Edmonds & Sonny Kim

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

THE GLOBAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY PROJECT

CURRENT SPONSORS Battelle

British Petroleum EPRI

European Union Mobil Oil

Japan’s NIES Toyota Motor Corporation U.S. Department of Energy

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

A TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY COLLABORATION

INTERNATIONAL Beijing Energy Research Institute

Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnment et le Developpement Council on Agricultural Science and Technology

Council on Foreign Relations Indian Institute for Management

Intern’l Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis Japan Science & Technology Corporation

Korean Energy Economics Institute National Autonomous University of Mexico National Inst. for Env. Studies, Japan Potsdam Institute for Climate Studies Stanford Energy Modeling Forum TATA Energy Research Institute

Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

CONCLUSIONS Fusion--and in particular electricity--has a major

role to play in a technology strategy to address climate change, but

Fusion will be part of a technology portfolio, including Supporting technologies e.g. batteries & fuel cells, and Complementary technologies e.g. biomass, solar,

conservation, nuclear, natural gas, hydrogen, generation, carbon capture & sequestration.

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

PgC/yr

Activity Mix, Fuel Mix & End-Use Technologies

Additional Solar/Nuclear

Additional Biomass

Carbon Sequestration

Conventional Fossil Fuel Emissions (550)

Energy TechnologiesFilling the Global CO2 Emissions Gap

(An Illustrative Example)

550 ppmv Stabilization Emissions

Reference Emissions

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FILLING THE GAP

No one technology will solve the climate problem alone.A mix of technologies will be needed including--fusion, solar,

fission, biomass, conservation, and fossil fuels.The contribution of technologies to the solution will depend on

their relative economic performance.

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

CONCLUSIONS

Fusion will benefit from emissions mitigation, but

Unless it is economically competitive, its role will be limited.

The value of successful research on fusion energy is great.

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

Unconventional Oil & Gas production is limited by coal availability and low-cost of synthetic fuels.

Coal is the dominant form of primary energy, but is used primarily in a transformed state.

REFERENCE CASE

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/yr

NuclearSolarHydroPrBioConsPrCoalConsPrGasConsPrOilCons

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REFERENCE CASE FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Cost Year

>$0.50/kWh 2035

$0.15/kWh 2050

$0.05/kWh 2095

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

Cost

FUSION COST SENSITIVITY(2095 Cost, 1996 $)

Lowest = $0.03/kWh Low = $0.04/kWh Mid = $0.05/kWh High = $0.08/kWh Highest = $0.10/kWh

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

FUSION MARKET PENETRATIONReference Case, Alternative Fusion Costs

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Fusion Electric Generation (EJ)

Highest

High

Mid

Low

Lowest

EMISSIONS MITIGATION CASES

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

FUSION POWER & EMISSIONS MITIGATION

Fusion benefits from carbon taxes. Each $100/tonneC is worth

$0.011 to $0.018/kWh(depending on fossil fuel alternative)

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

FUSION CAN HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON THE VALUE OF CARBON 2005 TO 2095

550 ppmv ceiling

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

1996 $ per tonne C

HighestHighMidLowLowest

FUSION INTERACTION WITH OTHER TECHNOLOGIES

High cost fusion benefits only marginally because it is more expensive than alternative mitigation options.

Low cost fusion significantly reduces carbon emission mitigation requirements.

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

Effect of 550 ppmv Stabilization on Fusion’s Electricity Share of 2095 Power Generation

Market

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VALUE OF SUCCESSFUL FUSION R&D WITH

EMISSIONS MITIGATION

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VALUE of FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

450 ppmv550 ppmv

650 ppmv750 ppmv

HighestHigh Mid

LowLowest

2,469

1,051

526

317

1,614

732

401262

1,258

593

331222

661

323186

127

368

185107

75-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Billion 1996 $

Value of Having vs. Not Having Fusion - CBF

Value Of Particular Fusion R&D Targets

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

Electricity Market: Price Ratios(USA Stabilization at 550 ppm less USA BAU)

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

Technology Electricity Price/Share Weighted Price

Carbon Electric Carb-Cap Electric

Non-Carb Electric Biomass Electric

Fusion Category

Assumes dominant market share

Hydrogen Market: Price Ratios(USA Stabilization at 550 ppm less USA BAU)

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

Technology H2 Price/Share Weighted Price

Carbon Carbon Electric Carbon Capture Electric

Biomass Biomass Electric Non Carbon Electric

Electrolysis appears to be

a marginal H 2

source.

GasificationRules . . .

If optimistic technology advances

are achieved!

How Does Hydrogen Production Technology Change With Stabilization Policy?

(USA Stabilization at 550 ppm less USA BAU)

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

-30.00

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

Change in H2 Energy Generated (EJ/a)

Fossil Fuel Carbon Capture Electric Biomass Non Carbon Electric

Non-Carbon Category Category

CONCLUSIONSFusion’s role in a technology strategy to

address climate change

Fusion has a major role to play in Electricity production . . .but

Fusion power will not be a major contributor to Hydrogen production unlessSignificant advances occur in electrolysis

technology andFusion can demonstrate a competitive

advantage (E.g. using heat)

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

CONCLUSIONS

Fusion will benefit from emissions mitigation, but

Unless it is economically competitive, its role will be limited. E.g. hydrogen generation

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

CONCLUSIONS Fusion R&D needs to identify and target those

unique features that can give fusion a competitive advantage. Capitalize on fusion’s unique technical

characteristics. “Only a foolish elephant tries to be a mouse1”

In this regard, a critical, comparative study of competitive technology characteristics and performance projections is essential.

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

1) Attributed to Lau Tzu by JFC