The role of Direct Air Capture and Carbon Dioxide Removal in Well below 2°C scenarios in ETSAP-TIAM James Glynn 1 , Niall Mac Dowell 2 , Giulia Realmonte 3 , Brian Ó Gallachóir 1 1.MaREI-UCC, 2. CEP-ICL, 3. Grantham-ICL Corresponding Author: *[email protected] | @james_glynn ETSAP Workshop | 18 th June 2018 | Gothenburg, SWEDEN.
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
The role of Direct Air Capture and Carbon Dioxide Removal in Well below 2°C scenarios in ETSAP-TIAM
James Glynn1, Niall Mac Dowell2, Giulia Realmonte3, Brian Ó Gallachóir1
1.MaREI-UCC, 2. CEP-ICL, 3. Grantham-ICL
Corresponding Author: *[email protected] | @james_glynn
ETSAP Workshop | 18th June 2018 | Gothenburg, SWEDEN.
Research Question & Motivation
• Does Direct Air Capture have a role to play in achieving the 1.5°C temperature target? • We explore overshoot and return to a 1.5C temperature increase by 2100,
• or an upper 1.5C temperature increase threshold limit for all century.
• We explore the uncertainties and hard constraints between carbon budget limits and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) potential from BECCS and DAC. (heat potentials & bioenergy potentials)
• What is the change in Primary Energy Demand and Mix from 2°C to 1.5°C with and without DAC?
• Can DAC & CDR reduce energy system cost increases when moving from Baseline 2°C to 1.5°C?
First, what is CDR? & What is DAC?
• CDR stands for Carbon Dioxide Removal – by technological or biological means• Carbon Capture, and Storage (CCS) – EOR at Statoil Sleipner field since 1996, Petra Nova Coal-CCS (EOR)
• Negative Emissions Technologies (NETS)• BIOENERGY with CCS (BECCS) – ADM BECCS (bioethanol) plant Illinois, USA
• Direct Air Capture (DAC) and Sequestration (DACCS) (CLIMEWORKS – Iceland geothermal Pilot plant)
• Direct Air Capture (DAC) and synthetic liquid fuels. (Carbon Engineering – USA pilot plant (Keith et al. (2018))
CDR context in SSPx-RCP2.6 IAM scenariosCum
ula
tive M
tCO
2
em
issio
ns fro
m 2
010
Glo
bal m
ean W
arm
ing
above p
re-i
ndustr
ial °C
Sustainable BIO?
Paris Agreement
Paris Agreement
Method: ETSAP-TIAM model outline
• 15 Region linear programming bottom-up energy system model of IEA-ETSAP
• Integrated model of the entire energy system
• Prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (2100)• Demand driven by exogenous energy service demands
• SSP2 from OECD Env-LINKS CGE model
• Regional Structural detail of the economy
• Partial and dynamic equilibrium• Price-elastic demands
• General Equilibrium with MACRO
• Minimizes the total system cost • Or Maximises Consumption/Utility
• Hybrid General Equilibrium MSA
• Optimal technology selection
• Environmental constraints• GHG, Local Air Pollution & Damages
• Integrated Simple Climate Model
• Myopic and Stochastic run options
Direct Air Capture (DAC) Specification
• American Physical Society (2011) – Direct Air Capture of CO2 with Chemicals.
• Keith, D. W., Holmes, G., St. Angelo, D. & Heidel, K. A Process for Capturing CO2 from the Atmosphere. Joule (2018). doi:10.1016/j.joule.2018.05.006
• Capture Capacity• 1 MtCO2/yr
• Electricity Requirement• 0GJ/tCO2 - 1.78 GJ/tCO2
• Heat requirement • Low Temp ~100C• 8.1 GJ/tCO2 - 5.25 GJ/tCO2
• CAPEX• $1,140/tCO2/yr ~ $160/tCO2
• OPEX• $200/tCO2 - $23t/CO2
• Lifespan• 40-20 years
Scenarios [1]
• Base – Drivers are calibrated to SSP2 drivers from the OECD ENV-LINKS.• Population, GDP, sectoral GVA, Households (still need to fix AEEI & DrvESD coeff)
• All Climate Policy runs are fixed to the Base run to 2020.
• Combinations of the following
• 2°C, and 1.5°C temperature limits with Climate Model controlling for Non-CO2 GHGs and Exoforcing
• Carbon Budgets applied from 2020-2100• 1000GtCO2 – 2°C
• 600GtCO2, 400GtCO2, 200GtCO2 – 1.5°C
• Constraints on CO2 sequestration sinks limits• Full potential (11PtCO2), 1660GtCO2 total horizon, 30GtCO2/yr, linear growth to
30GtCO2/yr by 2100, 10GtCO2/yr, Growth to 10GtCO2/yr
• Direct Air Capture • Investment Costs – $1,140/tCO2 - $160/tCO2
• Fixed operation and Maintenance Costs - $42/tCO2 - $23/tCO2
• ELC & HET or Gas only, or Gas & Elec
Scenarios [2]
Scenario Code Name Description Carbon Budget (2020-2100)
DAC Costs
BASE_SSP2_11p Reference base case n/a Not available
2C_SSP2_CB1000_CDR1660 2C temperature change limit, with 1660GtCO2 limit on sequestration
1000GtCO2
2C_SSP2_CB1000_CDR1660_DAC Same as above with DAC 1000GtCO2 InvCost $2900/tCO2
VAROM $200/tCO2
2C_SSP2_CB1000_CDR1660_DACloCst Same as above with Low Cost DAC 1000GtCO2 InvCost $100/tCO2
VAROM $50/tCO2
15C_CM21_SSP2_CB600_CDR1660_DAC Overshoot and return to 1.5C by 2100, with 1660GtCO2 limit on sequestration, with DAC an option
600GtCO2 InvCost $2900/tCO2
VAROM $200/tCO2
15C_CM21_SSP2_CB400_CDR1660_DACloCst
Same as above with Low Cost DAC an option
400GtCO2 InvCost $100/tCO2
VAROM $50/tCO2
15C_CMUP_SSP2_CB600_CDR1660_DAC Stay below 1.5C temperature ceiling, with 1660GtCO2 limit on sequestration, with DAC an option
600GtCO2 InvCost $2900/tCO2
VAROM $200/tCO2
15C_CMUP_SSP2_CB400_CDR1660DACloCst
Stay below 1.5C temperature ceiling, with 1660GtCO2 limit on sequestration, with Low Cost DAC
400GtCO2 InvCost $100/tCO2
VAROM $50/tCO2
BASE Scenario
• Base –calibrated to SSP2 drivers from the OECD ENV-LINKS.• Population, GDP, sectoral GVA, Households
• No Climate control policies
• Fossil fuel dominates Primary energy, with a growing share of renewables in Elec Generation
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Pri
mar
y En
ergy
(Ex
aJo
ule
s)
Primary Energy (EJ)
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100El
ectr
icit
y G
ener
atio
n (
Exaj
ou
les)
Electricity Generation (EJ)
Geo, Tidal and Wave
Solar Thermal
Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
CH4 Options
Biomass
Gas and Oil
Coal
DAC Penetration from 2C to 1.5C scenarios
• DAC is deployed when Low Cost DAC is available at <$250/tCO2
• Medium-term (2040-50) CO2 capture of 200-300 MtCO2/yr for 1.5C threshold
• Long Term Capture up to 1.6GtCO2/yr with up to 12 EJ in energy input
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2040 2050 2080 2090 2100
GtC
O2
CO2 Captured with Direct Air Capture (GtCO2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat
2040 2050 2090 2100
Exaj
ou
les
DAC Energy Input Requirements (EJ)
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB400_CDR16600_DAChilocst
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAChilocst
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAChilocst
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB600_CDR16600_DAChilocst
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAChilocst
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAClocst
No 1.5C temperature Overshoot allowed
2C and 1.5C emissions with & without DAC
• Rapid near term CO2 emissions reductions required to remain below a 1.5C threshold.• Near term deployment of CDR in the form of DAC and BECC forces abatement costs above
$200/tCO2 by 2030
• Overshoot and return to 1.5C follows an accelerated mitigation pathway when compared to 2C.
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
Foss
il Fu
el a
nd
Ind
ust
ry C
O2
em
issi
on
s -
(GtC
O2
)
Fossil Fuel and Industry CO2 Emissions (GtCO2)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2030 2050 2070 2090
Mar
gin
al A
bat
emen
t C
ost
of
CO
2 (
$/t
CO
2)
Marginal Abatement Cost of CO2 ($/tCO2)
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB400_CDR16600
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB600_CDR16600
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAClocst
BASE_SSP2_11p
Difference in cumulative CDR
• Low Cost DAC cumulative Capture of CO2 ranges from 11 GtCO2 in the 2C case,
• 17GtCO2 for the 1.5C threshold case
• 25GtCO2 in the overshoot and return to 1.5C case.
• The 1.5C threshold scenario with Low Cost DAC captures and additional 49GtCO2 compared to the without DAC scenario
• The 1.5C threshold scenario with DAC has 168GtCO2 less CDR than the 2C case.
• Coal consumption in electricity is replaced is phased out more rapidly in this case.
1 -
-49
1
-13
168
-11
-25 -17
-11
-25 -17
-100
-50
-
50
100
150
200
2C 1.5C 2100 1.5C UP 2C 1.5C 2100 1.5C UP
Difference with and without LowCost DAC
. Difference from a Low Cost DAC to2C without DAC
Ch
ange
in C
um
ula
tive
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
fro
m 2
C
(GtC
O2
20
20
-21
00
)
Difference in Total CDR Difference in Direct Air Capture
Key Messages
• Staying below a 1.5°C ceiling seems unlikely with current demand outlook understanding and technology specifications, even with optimistic CDR costs in the form of Direct Air Capture.• Negative Emissions technologies and CDR seem to be required to stay well below
2C.
• While DAC may have a near term CDR role to play, BECCS which also provides energy service requirements (biofuel & electricity), captures and removes more CO2 in our scenario analysis.• However, it is likely that there are heat & electricity constraints on DAC deployment in TIAM.
• Future Work with MaREI-UCC, Centre for environmental Policy and Grantham at Imperial College London
• The costs of achieving ambitious decarbonisation scenarios are highly sensitive to the volume of CO2 removal & Storage• Carbon Capture and Storage, and other negative emissions technologies require
accelerated development as well as likely demand side measures.
• Some regions may have significantly reduced abatement costs due to their ability to sequester CO2 in conjunction with considerable renewables potentials and large geological storage for BECCs & CDR.
ETSAP-TIAM waste HET sources for DAC?
• Detailed Bottom Up energy System Model
• From Energy Reserves, extraction, transformation, trade, renewable energy potentials, electricity generation, conversion to end use fuels, multiple energy service demands per sector.
• Integrated Climate Module
• Integrated Macroeconomic model for price demand general equilibrium.
Climate
Module
Atm. Conc.
ΔForcing
ΔTemp
Used for
reporting &
setting
targets
Biomass
Potential
Renewable
Potential
Nuclear
Fossil Fuel
Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)
ExtractionUpstream
Fuels
Trade
Secondary
Transformation
OPEC/
NON-OPEC
regrouping
Electricity
Fuels
Electricity
Cogeneration
Heat
Hydrogen production
and distribution
End Use
Fuels
Industrial
Service
CompositionAuto Production
Cogeneration
Carbon
captureCH4 options
Carbon
sequestration
Terrestrial
sequestration
Landfills ManureBio burning, rice,
enteric fermWastewater
CH4 options
N2O options
CH4 options
OI****
GA****
CO****
Trade
ELC***
WIN SOL
GEO TDL
BIO***
NUC
HYD
BIO***
HETHET
ELCELC
SYNH2
BIO***
CO2
ELC
GAS***
COA***
Industrial
Tech.
Commercial
Tech.
Transport
Tech.
Residential
Tech.
Agriculture
Tech.I***
I** (6)T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)
INDELC
INDELC
IS**
Demands
IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***
Non-energy
sectors (CH4)
OIL***
Low Temp Waste Heat?
References
Energy Input
Electricity
[GJ/ton]
Heat
[GJ/ton]
DAC 1
Strong Base
Sorbents
APS; Mazzotti, 2012 [1]
Keith, 2013 and 2018 [2]
Carbon Engineering
1.8
(centralized elec)
8.1
(Natural Gas)
DAC2
Solid Adsorbents
Amine-based
Goeppert, 2012
Climeworks [3]
Global Thermostat [4]
1.1
(centralized elec)
7.2
(Waste Heat)
DAC21
Solid Adsorbents
Amine-based
Goeppert, 2012
Climeworks [3]
Global Thermostat [4]
1.1
(centralized elec)7.2
(low-T heat)
Technology AnalyzedNext Steps - DAC Diagnostics @Grantham
Energy Input Cost Estimates
[$/ton]
Transport
Cost
Electricity
[GJ/ton]
Heat
[GJ/ton]
Investment O&M
(no energy)
[$/ton]
DAC 1
Strong Base
Sorbents
HIGH
LOW
1.8
1.6
8.1
6
220 [1]
160 [2]
76 [1]
60 [2]
1-10
DAC2
Solid Adsorbents
Amine-based
HIGH
LOW
1.1
0.7
7.2
5.4
90
50 [3]
260
150 [3]10
DAC21
Solid Adsorbents
Amine-based
HIGH
LOW
1.1
0.7
7.2
5.4
90
50 [3]
260
150 [3]
1-10
Energy and Cost AssumptionsNext Steps - DAC Diagnostics @Grantham
Energy Input Cost Estimates Transport Cost
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
BASE X
constantX 10
Low Cost X
constantX 10
Low Energy X
constantX 10
Exogenous Cost
Reduction
6% annual
cost reductionX 10
Low Transport X
constantX 1
Scenarios Next Steps - DAC Diagnostics @Grantham
Next Steps - DAC diagnostics @Grantham
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1. E
xoge
no
us
Co
st R
ed
2. L
ow
Co
st (
con
stan
t)
3. L
ow
En
erg
y
4. L
ow
Tra
nsp
ort
Co
st
5. B
ASE
1. E
xoge
no
us
Co
st R
ed
2. L
ow
Co
st (
con
stan
t)
3. L
ow
En
erg
y
4. L
ow
Tra
nsp
ort
Co
st
5. B
ASE
1. E
xoge
no
us
Co
st R
ed
2. L
ow
Co
st (
con
stan
t)
3. L
ow
En
erg
y
4. L
ow
Tra
nsp
ort
Co
st
5. B
ASE
1. E
xoge
no
us
Co
st R
ed
2. L
ow
Co
st (
con
stan
t)
3. L
ow
En
erg
y
4. L
ow
Tra
nsp
ort
Co
st
5. B
ASE
1. E
xoge
no
us
Co
st R
ed
2. L
ow
Co
st (
con
stan
t)
3. L
ow
En
erg
y
4. L
ow
Tra
nsp
ort
Co
st
5. B
ASE
1. E
xoge
no
us
Co
st R
ed
2. L
ow
Co
st (
con
stan
t)
3. L
ow
En
erg
y
4. L
ow
Tra
nsp
ort
Co
st
5. B
ASE
1. E
xoge
no
us
Co
st R
ed
2. L
ow
Co
st (
con
stan
t)
3. L
ow
En
erg
y
4. L
ow
Tra
nsp
ort
Co
st
5. B
ASE
1. E
xoge
no
us
Co
st R
ed
2. L
ow
Co
st (
con
stan
t)
3. L
ow
En
erg
y
4. L
ow
Tra
nsp
ort
Co
st
5. B
ASE
1. E
xoge
no
us
Co
st R
ed
2. L
ow
Co
st (
con
stan
t)
DAC1 DAC2 DAC21 DAC1 DAC2 DAC21 DAC1 DAC2 DAC21
2080 2090 2100
CO
2 C
aptu
red
[G
t/yr
]
Ene
rgy
Ne
ed
[EJ
/yr]
Energy Requirements for DAC [EJ/yr]
Electricity Heat CO2 captured [Gt/yr]
Next Steps - DAC diagnostics @Grantham
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2 Captured [Gt/yr]
DAC1 1. Exogenous Cost Red
DAC1 2. Low Cost (constant)
DAC1 3. Low Energy
DAC1 4. Low Transport Cost
DAC1 5. BASE (High Cost - constant)
DAC2 1. Exogenous Cost Red
DAC2 2. Low Cost (constant)
DAC2 3. Low Energy
DAC2 4. Low Transport Cost
DAC2 5. BASE (High Cost - constant)
DAC21 1. Exogenous Cost Red
DAC21 2. Low Cost (constant)
DAC21 3. Low Energy
DAC21 4. Low Transport Cost
DAC21 5. BASE (High Cost - constant)
Thank YouQUESTIONS?
“Unlocking the potential of our marine and renewable energy
resources through the power of research and innovation”
Environmental Research Institute
Instiúd Taighde Comshaoil
Energy Policy and Modelling Group
www.ucc.ie/energypolicy
Q&A Backup Slides
Scenario Temperature profiles
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways drivers
2C & 1.5C Electricity Generation w/wo DAC
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600
Exaj
ou
les
Electricity Generation (EJ) Geo, Tidal and Wave
Solar Thermal
Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass CCS
Biomass
CH4 Options
Gas CCS
Gas and Oil
Coal
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst
Exaj
ou
les
Electricity Generation (EJ) Geo, Tidal and Wave
Solar Thermal
Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass CCS
Biomass
CH4 Options
Gas CCS
Gas and Oil
Coal
Wit
hou
t D
AC
Wit
h L
ow
Cost
DA
C
2C & 1.5C Primary Energy Supply w/wo DAC
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600
Pri
mar
y En
ergy
(Ex
ajo
ule
s)
Primary Energy Requirement (EJ) - Climate Scenarios 2C-1.5C
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
20
05
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst
Pri
mar
y En
ergy
(Ex
ajo
ule
s)
Primary Energy Requirement (EJ) - Climate Scenarios 2C-1.5C-DAC low Cost
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Coal
Wit
hou
t D
AC
Wit
h L
ow
Cost
DA
C
Related Documents
