The Role of Agriculture in Hunger and Poverty Reduction

The Role of Agriculture in Hunger and Poverty Reduction

Shenggen FanDirector General

International Food Policy Research Institute

DFID, London, September 27, 2010

IFPRI, September 2010

Key messages

Global food security is under stress

Agricultural growth is crucial for reducing hunger and poverty

Agricultural research is key

The CGIAR and IFPRI are well-positioned to effectively address global challenges


The goal of halving hunger is off-track

Source: Based on data from FAO 2009; 2010 and author’s calculations

Number of hungry people, 1990-2015

946

584


Pressures on food security and agriculture

Population growth and demographic changes

Competition for land and water

Climate change

Energy and biofuels

Food price volatility, etc.

Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010

Source: M. Rosegrant 2009

NCAR A2a

E.g. Climate change pressure on agriculture

Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize, 2050

Global production = -16%


Agriculture creates wealth and reduces poverty and hunger by:

Raising farm incomes, esp. for smallholders

Creating farm employment

Stimulating the rural nonfarm economy through production and consumption linkages

Pushing down the prices of staple foods to the benefit of poor net food buyers

Source: OECD 2006


Agric-led growth is more pro-poor than non-agric-led growth

Agric-led growth scenario

Non-agric-led growth scenario

Ethiopia (2003-15) -1.7 -0.7

Ghana (2003-15) -1.8 -1.3

Kenya (2003-15) -1.3 -0.6

Rwanda (2003-15) -1.4 -0.8

Uganda (1999-2015) -1.6 -1.1

Zambia (2001-15) -0.6 -0.4Source: Diao et al. 2010

Poverty-growth elasticities


The composition of agric. growth is important

Calorie-growth elasticity

Poverty-growth elasticity

Maize -1.9 -1.5Sorghum & millet -1.5 -1.5Pulses & oilseeds -1.8 -1.4Roots -1.1 -1.5Horticulture -1.0 -1.4Livestock -0.7 -1.3Export crops -0.8 -1.4

Source: Pauw and Thurlow 2010

Poverty-growth and calorie-growth elasticities, Tanzania (2000-07)


Ghana Uganda Tanzania Ethiopia China India Thailand

Returns to agriculture or rural income(local currency/local currency spending)

Agric. R&D 16.8 12.4 12.5 0.14 6.8 13.5 12.6

Education -0.2 7.2 9.0 0.56 2.2 1.4 2.1

Health 1.3 0.9 n.e. -0.03 n.e. 0.8 n.e.

Roads 8.8 2.7 9.1 4.22 1.7 5.3 0.9

Ranking in returns to poverty reduction

Agric. R&D n.e. 1 2 n.e. 2 2 1

Education n.e. 3 1 n.e. 1 3 3

Health n.e. 4 n.e. n.e. n.e. 4 n.e.

Roads n.e. 2 3 n.e. 3 1 2

Investment in agric. R&D has high returns

Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009 Note: “n.e.” indicates not estimated


Big food security successes are driven by agric. innovation

Asia: Green Revolution (1965-85)

China: High-yielding hybrid rice varieties (1977-now)

East and Southern Africa: Breeding improved maize varieties (1965 to 1990)

India: Dryland millet and sorghum varieties (mid-1960s-now)

Nigeria, Ghana, and Uganda: pest- and disease-resistant cassava (1971-89)

Philippines: Breeding improved tilapia (1988 to 1997)Source: Spielman and Pandya-Lorch 2009


Research-based innovations can:

Sustainably increase yields

Enhance the nutritional value of food crops

Provide adaptive buffers against global shocks

Source: FBAE 2009Source: Chris Stowers/PANOS


Why CGIAR reform?

With rapid global changes, past CGIAR successes are not enough to meet future challenges

CGIAR’s new mission goes beyond productivity and technology to include hunger/nutrition, poverty, gender, and natural resource management

Increased quantity and quality of investment in the CGIAR is needed

Reform will help harmonize and maximize funding for priority research areas, simplify structures, and

reduce transaction costs


The CGIAR is well positioned to contribute to:

Global efforts to foster food production and food access

Sustainable management of natural resources and the environment

Reduced poverty and hunger in both rural and urban areas


New CGIAR structure

3 pillars: • CGIAR Fund• Consortium• Centers

4 bridging mechanisms: • Strategy and Results Framework

• Performance Agreements for Consortium research programs

• Monitoring and Evaluation Framework

• Independent Science and Partnership Council


Consortium research programs (CRPs)

1. Integrated agricultural systems for the poor

2. Policies, institutions, and markets for the poor

3. Sustainable production systems for food security

4. Agriculture for improved nutrition and health

5. Durable solutions to water scarcity and land and ecosystem degradation

6. Forests and trees

7. Climate change and agriculture


Increasing agricultural R&D: Allocation for poverty minimization

R&D allocation(mil. 2005 $)

in # of poor (mil.)

2008-20202008 2020

SSA 772 3,565 -170.0

S Asia 908 3,856 -177.2

E & SE Asia 1,956 3,266 -65.1

N Africa & W Asia 546 722 -1.3

L America 957 1,038 -0.8

TOTAL 5,139 12,446 -414Source: Nin Pratt and Fan 2009


Role of IFPRI’s research

Policy solutions for food security, agriculture, rural development, and improved resource allocation

Improved policy environment for technological developments of other CGIAR centers

IFPRI leads CRP2: Policies, Institutions, and Markets to Strengthen Assets and Agricultural Incomes for the Poor

IFPRI and ILRI co-lead CRP4: Agriculture for Improved Health and Nutrition


The conference will: bring together information on how to strengthen

linkages among agriculture, nutrition, and health

identify “best practices” in policies and programs

further knowledge and build consensus on priorities for appropriate action

facilitate networks amongst stakeholders

18

Improving Policymaking Capacity in Agriculture and Food Security at the

Country Level

Margaret McMillanDivision Director

Development Strategy and Governance Division



Country Strategy Support Programs(CSSPs)

• Research• Capacity Building• Impact Evaluation


CSSP Framework

Country Strategy Support

Program • Program Leader (Sr. Research Fellow)• Postdoctoral Fellows• RAs• Local support• DC-based support

Ministries• Timely, policy

relevant research results

• Improved access to information and data

• Policy dialogue

Local think tanks, national

research institutes

• Capacity building• Collaboration

• Sharing lessons across countries

Universities• Collaboration

• Sharing lessons across countries

Civil society• Farmers

• Local Businesse

s• NGOs


Offices, CSSPs, and future CSSPs around the world

CSSPs

Upcoming CSSPs

IFPRI offices

IslamabadDhaka

Kinshasa

Kathmandu

Phnom Penh

Potential CSSPs

Sao Paulo

Buenos Aires


Innovative policy-relevant research


Capacity building


Cross-regional mutual learning

CAADP and Its Role in Promoting Agricultural Development in Africa

Ousmane BadianeDirector for Africa




Carry out comprehensive stocktaking

Develop strategy and outcome scenario

Create detailed baselines

Develop guidelines for best practices

Create knowledge platform

Build capacities for replicability

Laying the foundations for evidence-based planning, review and learning


National Rural

57.6

63.4

37.240.7

34.938.5

42.446.6

30.934

Current PSTA II Vision- 2020PSTA I/CAADP MDG1-2015

Poverty outcomes under investment plans: Rwanda


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15

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UNDER PLANS growth MDG15 growthMDG20 growth

Growth outcomes under investment plans: Rwanda



Building analytical capacities