The Road Not Taken Jim Yoe, JCSDA Chief Administrative Officer JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 1.

The Road Not Taken

Jim Yoe, JCSDA Chief Administrative Officer

JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 1

Outline Motivation (Some) current topics NOT addressed here (Some) comments & extensions about

topics that HAVE been addressed (Some) future directions and

considerations Summary

JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 2

Motivation Question: What Road? Answer: Several:

Some Current applications not covered in Colloquium

Some Extensions and connections of topics covered

Some Future Considerations Environments, Applications, Implications

This was to be the closing talk – “roll up” So this might seem out of place

JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 3

Topics Not Addressed Land Data Assimilation

See R. Reichle, http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/meetings_2009SummerColloq.php

GPS Radio Occultation Refer to talks by J. Derber, L.-P. Riishojgaard, See L. Cucurull http://

www.jcsda.noaa.gov/meetings_2009SummerColloq.php

(Note also 2009 GMAO, UKMO DA Summary Talks)

ummer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 4

Comments and Extensions

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Data Impact Studies• Multiple Methods

• Forecast Sensitivity Diagnostics (FSD; e.g., Adjoints)• Observation System Experiments• Observation System Simulation Experiments

• Multiple Applications• Evaluate DA systems/methods• Evaluate OS components

• Influence decisions regarding future OS components

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500 hPa Anomaly Correlations 15 Aug – 30 Sep 2010 (Riishojgaard and Jung, 2012)

7

No Satellite / No Conventional Data

Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

5th WMO Observing Systems Impact Workshop

500 hPa Day 3 North America Time Series (LPR/JJ)

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Data Impact Studies• Recommendation (Word of Caution):• Avoid Temptation (resist pressure) to map every

inch of trade space• Recall JCDSA Mission Statement• Analogy to misuse of statistics

• “Statistics are like a street lamp; the wise man uses it for illumination, and the drunk man for support”

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Modeling and DA Constraints

JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 10

11

Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAMWRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

DispersionARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Refreshfor Aviation

Climate ForecastSystem

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s Model Production Suite

GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

11

Regi

onal

DA

Satellites + Radar99.9%

~2B Obs/Day

NOS – OFSGreat Lakes

Northern Gulf of Mexico

Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware

SpaceWeather

ENLIL

Regi

onal

DA

2011

Computing Capability

“reliable, timely and accurate”

Web access to models as they run on the CCS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

JULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJAN

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Current computers IBM Power6 73.1 trillion

calculations/sec 2 billion observations/day 27.8 million model

fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV Guaranteed switchover in

15 minutes Next generation

computer: by Oct 2013 IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux 143 trillion calc/sec Primary: Reston, VA Backup: Orlando, FL

Operational NWP Models

JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 13

The Global Observing System

• Evolving in which direction? Consider:• Number of US Operational SC and sensors

• Decreasing• Number of Total SC and sensors

• Increasing• Number of observations available

• Increasing• Quality of observations available• Timeliness (latency)

JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 14

“It’s not having what you want; it’s wanting what you’ve got”

A word on balance Environmental Modeling as a three-legged stool: Observations

Becoming a commodity? Computational (and communications) capacity Intellectual

Modeling Data Assimilation & QC

JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 15

Summary (Satellite) Data Assimilation will grow in

importance More Applications Increasingly coupled applications More varied sensors Part of the most cost-effective component to

invest in for improved modeling.

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Back up slides

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